So are we, the SnS, going to post all the goings on and whathaveyou’s of the Void? Nope, not interested. How about some rumors, like Cliff Lee is thinking about coming to Houston because he loves cowboy boots? Nope, not interested. You can find plenty of that elsewhere, even in our forums. We welcome it there, we invite you to join in. But as far as the SnS spending time and energy reporting every sneeze, cough, sniffle that emanates from Ed Wade… well… we pass.

Enoy the Holidays any way and try not to hurt yourselves out there. We want you back in 2011!

Glad you asked

A winning season?

It’s not uncommon for fans of any MLB team to expect good things from the team they follow. It’s part of being a fan and I certainly count as one. In this case, I’m a huge fan of the Houston Astros and the same thing applies this spring as every spring since I’ve followed the club. Will this be a good club this year that can win games? My heart always says “yes” to that question regardless of what anyone else says. That is the fun part about being a fan and I, for one, will never let anyone take that away from me. Afterall, the heart of a fan always leads you to believe that all players are major leaguers capable of having break out years. Every single one of them. Sometimes it actually happens that way, leading the little heart of the fan to gloat a little as if we knew some secret only revealed to us from the portals of the Baseball Gods (that would be BBGs to some of you). So in that regard, congratulations to all of us, in our heart of hearts, this will be a winning season. Go ahead, own it, it’s not a bad thing at all. No? Want to walk around as some sort of “above it all” type who comes off as some negative nancy all the time? Well go ahead, I know the drill, if they do win you’ll say “I’m glad they proved me wrong” if the BBGs smile upon the local nine.

There is another part to being a fan though and that’s the knowledge of the game and how it should be played. That usually is lost to some fans either because they don’t know how that plays out in their fandom or they simply misguide themselves with other aspects of the game they lose a bit of focus. That’s okay though, in many ways it better to be a fan with heart more than anything else. So with this in mind, let’s take a mixture of heart and knowledge and look at the 2010 Houston Astros and of course the chances of winning this season.

The Potential

There are things about the 2010 Houston Astros that give the heart some reason to believe. A quick look at the club this spring tells you that there is a new attitude in the clubhouse that sets the team off in the right foot this year. Attitudes, however, often get slammed with reality when a season is in full swing, especially during bad stretches. Every team goes through bad stretches, so this is where it will be interesting to see how new manager Brad Mills really proves the difference in terms of leadership and management skills. So right off the bat, if the Astros are to win, it most certainly falls on the manager to help them through the tough stretches. Any manager can strategically manage a game or a series, it’s the true effective managers who can provide leadership through an entire season. First place to look with heartfelt anticipation is whether you believe and of course the players believe that Brad Mills is the man.

Having said that about Mills, every manager must have talent from which to work from. This is usually when contention and rancor swells up in the heart of the fan. It’s either directed at the GM, in this case Ed Wade, and most certainly towards the owner. Uncle Draytie is not a name given in praise of the owner, but in spite and dislike. This is because the correlation between money and talent seems to be very strong in the heart of a fan. That the 2009 New York Yankees won the world championship last year only adds fuel to the fire.

So do the Astros lack talent to win?

That’s a very good question and the answer really has different aspects to it. This is not a sidestep of the question, it’s just that what is meant by talent and how does one measure good versus great versus pay a gazillion dollars for it? The answer should be simplified for a fan if only it’s acceptable and understandable. So here it is: Pitching is another way of saying “talent” in baseball. Teams like Minnesota, the Flordia Marlins teams that won championships and even the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox all know that money is not another way of saying “talent” in the MLB. Pitching, whether you pay for it or grow your own is what will equate to “talent enough to win”. So whether it is a veteran arm or a rookie with amazing stuff, you need the right manager to help them navigate through a whole season. And it takes a good pitching coach working with said manager to accent that work. Much as I hate to give credit to St. Louis, they’ve managed to have a consistent run of winning seasons with what seem to be castoff and ner’do well arms. I guess one has to understand that Tony LaRussa and Drinkin’ Dave Duncan know a little bit about protecting and getting the most of the “talent” in a team.

So where are we in terms of talent?

When you talk pitching and 2010 Houston Astros, you start with Roy Oswalt. As much as Wandy Rodriquez took his game to another level last year, the reality is that without Roy Oswalt as the anchor of this staff, the job Brad Mills can do in Houston this season is in jeopardy in terms of winning. The job that Myers, Paulino, Norris and/or Moehler can do to augment what Oswalt and Rodriquez could do (and really, you must emphasize “could”) is just icing on the cake. You basically want 15 wins or so from your #1 and #2 individually and innings from the rest of the staff. Myers might be able to provide those innings, so the work that could happen this year from the talent on the team is inspiring the heart to say “they have a chance”. That’s all that can be expected at this point, with Mills, Arnsberger and the pitching staff, this 2010 Houston Astros have a chance.

What makes a team better than a “chance to win”?

Whenever you want to judge a team as having a better than good chance to win, you start to look at what a team will do to supplement the pitching staff and their chances of success. As goes the pitching, so go the chances to win. Quite frankly, it surprises me sometimes to see major league organizations disavowing pitching and try to win with other aspects of the game in place, such as offense and lots of it. I won’t bore you with the explanation of the Angelos Effect, but there is one prime example of an organization gone horribly off track. The irony is that many a fan of that particular team had no problem with what management did to try and win, because they, the fans, saw money being spent so surely it invested in talent. Right? Well, yes, but not the right way. Investments should be made to support the pitching, not supplant it. You need a good catcher who knows how to navigate a game not only once but for an entire season. Yadier Molina hit a buck eighty three the year the Cardinals won the World Series, but the pitchers swore by the young man’s game that season, a turnaround from the previous season when he was considered selfish and only looking out for his own interest. Also investments in defense in key spots like shortstop and centerfield really do help. Give a pitching staff that sort of support and watch them turn from those average pitchers into world beaters because confidence is really high. Have a manager who knows how to use the same type of support to help a pitcher’s game and watch the confidence in the manager also swell to high proportions. Even when things get rough, the players, be it field or pitching, will still be on the same page as the skipper and thus they will be more apt to pull out of a tailspin than wallow in the misery therein.

Offense and a Bullpen and a bit of luck

I’m sure that many are looking forward to seeing both the young players like Hunter Pence, Tommy Manzella, JR Towles and Michael Bourn produce at the plate. There must be many looking forward to a semi-bounce back season from Berkman, a solid effort from Lee again and perhaps something a little more significant from Matsui or Keppinger. This usually where pundits and fans look first to judge a team. I don’t blame them, it is usually the part of the game that is easily evaluated through stats and metrics. So be it, but you can have good seasons from every man up and down the lineup and still not have a winning season without pitching and defense. But a good balance of pitching, defense and timely offense will win you more games than lose. That brings us back to another aspect of pitching that should concern every 2010 Astros fan. The bullpen is now without it’s closer and two setup men. The loss of Valverde, Hawkins and Brocail is no small thing. Here is the positive though, the bullpen might be the most potentially strong group in a very long time. The emphasis is potentially because it has some elements of quality that cannot be dismissed easily. The arms are certainly quality, but sometimes it takes a while for arms in a bullpen to come together. What is key is to establish roles early and stick to those roles. My fear is that time is running out this spring and still no real set roles have emerged. This gives Mills and Arnsberger some work to do fast else they will be looking at losing more game early in the season and having to work their ways towards much more wins at the back end. Here is where some concern should emerge for everyone, what is this bullpen going to look like in 2010? Hopefully the work a Chris Sampson can provide in terms of setup and leadership will establish itself soon enough. It will be vital to the success this year.

After all, isn’t success what we’re all wishing for from the bottom of our fan heart?

Glad you asked.

First, before we launch into some far too often explored yet sometimes misunderstood sports/baseball strong held truths, let me start by saying if you research (re: google) the words Leadership and Management, you’re going to find strong opinions on why these two things are not the same.  A small sampling if you will:

• Leaders lead people, managers manage task.
• Leadership and management are two notions that are often used interchangeably but these words actually describe two different concepts.
• To lead, be a coach, not a manager.
• Leadership is an asset a successful manager must possess.

By now, you probably have a very good idea where I’m heading with this so let’s just go ahead and get it out of the way: Cecil Cooper showed all of us that while he could manage task well enough to be successful in baseball (stop laughing, he wasn’t that bad a “manager”), his leadership skills left a little to be desired.  Was that important?  Yes, somewhat.  No, make that very much so.  I know some will argue that even managing task were a boon-doggle for Coop.  Thank you Geoff Blum, now sit down please.  So what is the big deal about leadership to manage a baseball team?  You got nine guys, a ball, some gloves, some bats and all you have to do is make sure you manage the strategy and let the players do the rest.  Okay, here is why in many ways it is very important. Leadership comes in two flavors on a baseball team: peer-to-peer, or better said veteran-to-not-so-veteran and of course manager-to-player.  If this is true, why is the duality of leadership needed?  Can’t players do that leadership thingy and thus allow the manager to just concentrate on filling out a lineup card correctly?

Glad you asked (part two).

Where some fall in the long held truths in baseball when it comes to managers is that the manager’s job is to manage the task within a game, a series and of course a very long season.  Do that well and you will succeed they say.  Whitey Herzog may have not been the first one to say it, but he is well known to repeat it often enough: “To win in baseball, you need a lot of luck and a strong bullpen”.  I don’t disagree that if you have the talent, the depth on the bench, good to great pitching and a little bit of luck come your way, you can be so-so as a leader and yet manage strategy well enough to be the next manager to get a ring with the word “World Series Champion” inscribed on it.  But tell me something, how many teams outside of New York, Boston or Los Angeles have the sort of money to insure themselves against a manager who really has little to no leadership skills whatsoever?  Okay, I agree: not many.  Certainly not the Houston Astros, the team we all root for and of course the team with an owner who just won’t act like a spend crazy lunatic owner who will buy the next World Championship.

I’m not bitter.  Really.

So back to what we’re talking about – leadership and management.  I do believe that if you have a strong player/leader presence in the clubhouse, you will mitigate the very skill lacking in a manager.  In fact, some managers will welcome not having to display leadership qualities because most of them learned how to manage by the very people who managed them.  By and large, it’s been about players policing themselves in terms of leadership and of course managers managing the task and the two being somewhat working in a symbiotic relationship.  You probably already figured out that the best years that the Houston Astros franchise has ever had were the same years that number 5 and 7 donned the uniform of the local nine.  In fact, it was not such a good idea for a manager to try and become a vocal, even harsh “leader” for the team during that time because it could clash with the two player’s influence on the others.  I give you Terry Collins for example, a manager prone to bouts of vitriolic rants to try and prove his leadership ability.  All for naught too.

So who could blame a managerial candidate really not wanting or even expecting to be a leader in the Houston clubhouse.  If you want leadership, well that is what coaches are for, blah, blah, blah.  Did you happen to hear these words this summer: “As a manager, all I can do is fill out the lineup card and try to change it every once and while to see if I can break us out of the funk we’re in”.  Whether this was a statement uttered in defense of a lack of leadership or not, the end result is that it proved what most managers really do expect their job to be.  Task oriented skills primarily and of course mostly.

With the absence of Bagwell and Biggio now very much accepted and stamped into the Houston Astros scene, the idea of a leader in the clubhouse to mitigate a manager’s deficiencies in this area is very much a necessity.  You may think players like Berkman, Lee or Oswalt were the ones given the baton by Bagwell and Biggio, but the reality is that not many see any of those gentlemen as true leaders.  In comes Miguel Tejada and in a few short years, this player who has little time in and around the Houston organization, propels himself into a leadership role.  His work ethic, his attitude, his passion was rubbing off on this team, so perhaps there was a chance of the symbiotic relationship blossoming in Houston this summer.  Leadership and Management, wow, it can happen.  And then of course, some failed bullpen management (or abuse) during the dog days of summer plus some really unlucky health issues to key players, and there is nothing leadership and management could do to make it work.  Wrong moves on management side could only make it worse, and there was some of that for sure.

So where are the Houston Astros today?

As of the end of the season, you can pretty much toss a coin in the air if Miguel Tejada is coming back.  My hunch is no, he will not be back, and I think it will be a mutually agreed upon split.  Houston will not want an aging shortstop and Miguel will probably want to go somewhere else to play for his last shot or shots at glory.  The organization for its part is in search of a manager.  Be not dismayed at the list you have been privy to in terms of candidates, all of them can manage.  Here is what I want to know:

Is there one amongst them that can lead?

Glad  you asked!

The questions can be answered this way: Juneberno.  But there seems to be a growing giddiness that has overtaken some in the Astros fandom.  Great, that is really what fans should do.  Seriously.  I’m in, I’m a fan first, I love watching this team play really well and take it to the Dodgers and Co-ards (the last being a semi-poser of a contender actually, but let’s not quibble about the pedigree here, they’re the frontrunners in the NL Central, so let’s leave it at that).  This is awesome.  Live for the moment because the moment is good.

Really good.

But what happens when the moment is bad?  Well, just like one can get giddy, one can also get a bit miserable because we allow it to be this way.  Unfortunately for fans, the major league baseball season is a marathon, so you’re going to have these up and downs in a season.  Right now, it’s up people, so get up!  Here is the thing though, do you want the GM and Manager reacting to the season in the same manner as you and I?

Gosh, I hope not.

They could both take a page right out of the Jeff Bagwell book of cliches that make a ton of sense.  Primarily, “never get too low after a loss, never get too high after a win”.  Or “this is not football where you can use emotion to help you win, in fact it’s better to play relaxed than too pumped up”.  So what is happening right now for the team is great from a positive standpoint of going out the ballpark.  Heck, I want to see some steM destruction this weekend and will settle for nothing less!  Woo-hoo.  But back to the GM and Manager for a minute.  This 2009 version of the Houston Astros are pretty good in terms of talent, no one has questioned that.  But the question mark has been the age of said talent and the ability to stay productive consistently for an entire season (not just for several months).  The other question mark was pitching.

I thought the defense was not an issue and neither the bullpen when the season started, but we all agreed that starting pitching… yes, a question mark for sure.

Calling Mr. Hampton, Mr. Mike Hampton. The Astros are going to need you!

That Roy Oswalt started off slowly again was cause for concern.  Thank you Wandy for providing good work early to keep this team hanging around.  Now the starters seem to have hit a groove and hopefully the aged Ortiz and Hampton can be the same guys in a couple of months.

That’s left to be seen.  Same with Moehler.  Wandy is hovering around uncharted waters for him but maybe this is where a Hampton and Ortiz can help him… the mental aspects of being a starter who is the leader of the squad along with Oswalt.

Offensively, they’re performing where most of us thought they would and thank goodness Cooper came to his senses when it came to Bourn.  Now he has that sparkplug that the team can rally around.  Now if he just settles with Pence at the six hole and stops some of his madness with lineup construction, he’ll be fine.  The minute a two game losing streak happens, you don’t want your manager acting like a fan and overreacting.  If fact, as long as the Astros win, Cooper is held in check from doing what is his flawed managerial manuevers.  “All I can do is change the lineup!”.  Yeah, well here is hoping they keep winning (and no they won’t keep just winning – winning is as streaky as losing so expect some losing streak at some point as well).  I know the Astros are a second half team, but two things you want from the GM and Manager is this:

Don’t be fans, be baseball men and react accordingly.

Help this team win more than lose and that requires looking at making moves in terms of trades or callups from the minors.  It also requires putting your guys in the best position to produce, even when they’re losing (sounds strange I’m sure, but you cannot be fan-like and decide to make a bunch of moves to shake things up).  I think one place for sure where the GM has to look to provide some serious help is in the bullpen.  I know, Doug Brocail is coming back and all.  Fine, but the reality we’re seeing lately is that we have a highly inconsistent bullpen.  The next thing we’ll hear though is “who doesn’t have an inconsistent bullpen?”.  True, but if you’re serious about doing something down the stretch, a consistently good bullpen… no, a consistently great bullpen is a must.  Just saying.

So any way, the second half is on the way, everyone is noticing the good play of the Astros and are talking about the possibilities.  Here is where you have to see just how good your GM and Manager are and also how good (consistent) this team is as well.  Here is hoping it is all positive (and a stray hurricane doesn’t make a return engagement any time soon).

What’s with all this socializing going on? or Two thumbs up for Footer Tweets

Welcome to new world of social networking meets sports organization. Is it really a new idea that is getting fans excited and thus creating momentum for momentum sake? Is it marketing in a tweet? Doggoneit, exactly what is it?

Glad you asked!

Okay, so at SpikesnStars.com, we’re known for being a bit harsh on reporting and information given to fans by the local media. If it comes from the Astros, we are quick to accuse it as being from the PR arm of the organization. If it comes from independent information sources, like the Chronicle, we are quick to underscore how weak or distorted or slanted or out of scope the information is that we get. We long for those occasional inside source information that comes to several regulars here because we love unfiltered information. You know: they inform, we decide. Quite a cliché for the new era of information, but it has legs.

It is what we do with this information that allows us to grow in understanding of this organization. Understand, yes that is the goal. Oh sure, we’ll eventually need to get to an agree or disagree stage with any and all information, be it social networking channels or the atypical webpapers online, but first and foremost we all just long for pure, unadulterated information to gain understanding. When we have to wade through slanted, distorted information, it makes us a bit perturbed. I think most fans are no different than most of the regular SnS member. It is the same for all of us. We probably can even find common ground in the agree/disagree arena too. Naaahhhh… baby steps. Baby. Steps.

So what has been a move towards the social networking and the inclusion theory behind it is that we are now no longer entirely dependent on “inside sources” in order to get information. Some of the social network disseminated information is nuggets of gold that help our understanding deeply. Kudos to Ms. Footer and many others who embraced what has been the grand experiment around here for a long time. Every 140 character tweet is another step towards a great relationship. Inform us, we’re better fans, include us and we’re loyal fans, do both and we’re lifers. We can be trusted… right? I think so and hence why the Astros and I imagine many other organizations are trying the grand experiment of inclusion through the social networking outlets. If nothing else, with information comes understanding (or should) and with understanding comes a loyalty for not only the team but to baseball itself.

Is it, however, about selling the team to us? Well, they don’t need to do that, we’re already “all in”. I suspect, however, that the win-win is that it solidifies the relationship with the core fans while bringing in the peripheral fan and making them, well… somewhat like a typical SnS member. Fans are fans, and what has happened here to many of us with our dysfunctional social experiment is apparent. Raise your hand if you know more about feeding a turtle, what to wear if you want to volunteer to clean up after a hurricane in Louisiana, where in San Antonio to take your wife for an great anniversary dinner, et. al. Okay, see how it works? No. Okay, but as it grows, so will the relationship and so will the inside source type of information. I already see it, starting with information on the draft picks and continuing on. Will it turn the turnstiles at Minute Maid? I think it will.

Did reading a tweet that Heck and Co. were estatic about this pick help your understanding?

If you really want a bottom line on this, it is a business proposition that helps the baseball side of the organization. How so? Well, unlike marketing, that is pointed information, meant to make you feel connected emotionally, a raw feed of information like the social networking outlets will make you feel empowered and included. That is a win-win and sells tickets. So what is the downside? The team managed incorrectly or built askew of good baseball acumen can be shielded if the fan base is only “in” at the emotional (or marketing level). At the empowered or inclusive level, the voices grow louder and gain momentum. I know, I’m really describing a bad thing, right? I personally don’t think so, because if the average fan takes time to read the tweets, blogs and forums that mixes in the inside sources like Ms. Footer, the big “ah-ha!” will help mitigate flaming and distorted views.

See, with proper information, you won’t have an owner reading e-mails, listening to concourse fans or listening to talk radio callers as much as reading the informed and included partners (re: neo-fans). The idea is take the “entity/person” equation and changing it to “person/person who works at entity” relationship. You connect with a person, hence why the whole “inside source” idea is so appealing to most of us. It is now open for all and it is about taking advantage of it the right way.  Think of it as the virtual equivalent of Drayton McLane wrapping his big paw around your (*cough* Andyzipp *cough*) shoulder, only this time he’s invited you to sit with him rather than you crashing the Diamond Boxes.

I think that’s good and really why would twitter be a bad thing given all that?