MusicMan – OrangeWhoopass http://www.orangewhoopass.com Tue, 27 Jun 2017 19:10:54 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.6 Athletics at Astros – Straight A’s http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/06/27/athletics-at-astros-straight-as/ Tue, 27 Jun 2017 19:10:54 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13654 ATHLETICS AT ASTROS

JUNE 27-29, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Astros got less than 11 innings over 3 games from their starting pitchers. Naturally, they won 2 of 3.

Oakland recovered from their home sweep at the hands of the Astros by traveling to Chicago and sweeping the White Sox. No veterans were cut in the making of this sweep.

Schedule/probables

Tuesday, June 27 – 7:10 PM CDT

Manaea (6-4, 4.05) at Fiers (5-2, 3.81)

Starting pitchers with a lower ERA than Mike Fiers over the last month:

CC Sabathia, Max Scherzer, and Corey Klueber

That’s a pretty good list. Oh, and Fiers’ last start against Oakland was among those June starts – 6 innings, 3 hits, and 1 run. If he can do that again, he has a decent chance to be the AL Pitcher of the Month – and if you thought that was anywhere in the realm of possibility 30 days ago, then you’re in need of medical intervention for either mental illness, substance abuse, or both.

(Statcast note: lost among the lack of home runs is that Fiers’ ground ball rate has gone from 43.3% during his first 9 starts to 63.1% in his last 5 starts.)

Manaea has pitched well against the Astros, allowing 2 and 3 runs in his 2 starts this season, but the A’s have taken the loss in both games.

Wednesday, June 28 – 7:10 PM CDT

Hahn (3-5, 4.66) at Paulino (2-0, 5.04)

Things did not go well for Hahn during his last outing, against the Astros.

I’m sorry… things did not go well for Custer at Little Bighorn. Hahn, on the other hand, was a disaster: 10 runs allowed in 2 innings pitched. This leaves the Astros hitting just under .300 (20 for 67) against Hahn. Can Hahn beat the Astros by himself? The odds are approximately 3,720 to 1.

Paulino makes his second consecutive start against the A’s, and if he can give AJ Hinch the same as the first time (5 1/3, 3 runs) then he’ll probably consider it a success.

Thursday, June 29 – 1:10 PM CDT

Cotton (5-7, 5.02) at Peacock (4-1, 2.82)

The Astros missed Cotton during the last series, but the feeling was not mutual; Cotton had allowed 10 hits and 6 runs to the Good Guys back in April. The Astros have hit .295 against Jharel, so I think it’s safe to say they enjoy the look and feel of Cotton.

Peacock returns from paternity leave to post another turn against the A’s, after his 5 2/3 inning start in the last series. Another such start with only 1 run allowed would certainly be nice, and might help to ensure a continued place in the rotation while injuries continue to sort themselves out.

 

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Astros at Rangers, June 2-4, 2017 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/06/01/astros-at-rangers-june-2-4-2017/ Thu, 01 Jun 2017 13:56:50 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13627 There has been much discussion lately of the proper approach to the Baseball Gods (BBGs). Let us be clear: one’s attitude toward the BBGs must always default to humility, trepidation, and respect.

With that being said: Folks… enjoy this.

Yes, there are mistakes made. No, not every single game will be a win. Of course, every team finds a whipping boy (hi, Mike Fiers!) But the bigger picture is that this team is enjoying a run that we haven’t seen since the late summer of 2005 – and that’s about right; if you’re lucky, you get to experience this kind of baseball maybe once a decade.

Speaking from a personal place – this run could not come at a better time. My son is 7, and turning 8 this summer. That’s a great age, and for me (and, I am guessing, for many of you readers), that is the age when you really start coming to understand baseball – how the game works, what you should be watching, and maybe even how much one (or both) of your parents love it. So when you have a special run (or BBGs willing, a special season) come a long at that perfect age when you could absolutely fall in love with the sport… well, you just thank your lucky stars, and you enjoy the ride.

What happened in the last series?

The Astros set a franchise record for series of any length by scoring 40 runs in only 3 games. Poor Twins… they averaged scoring over 5 runs per game, and still managed to lose by 8 runs a game.

The Rangers dropped 2 of 3 at home to the Rays, as their bullpen continues to make Minnesota’s look like the Nasty Boys reborn.

Schedule/Matchups

Friday, June 2 – 7:10 PM CDT

Keuchel (8-0, 1.81) at Darvish (5-3, 2.97)

Don’t blink, or you could miss this one; it could easily finish in under 2 hours. You know the deal with Darvish. He owns the Astros. Current Astros are only 25/120 (.208) with 38 strikeouts against Yu. Springer has somehow managed 5/12 with 2 HR, but the rest of the team… yikes. The Astros missed Yu last time around.

Fortunately, the Rangers aren’t much better against Keuchel. Current Rangers are 57/242 (.236) with 50 K and only 3 HR for Keuchel’s career. Beltre and Napoli have been decent, but the Bearded One has kept Odor in his place, at 2 for 25 with 6 strikeouts. Keuchel’s turn did not come up in the earlier series this year.

Saturday, June 3 – 6:15 PM CDT

McCullers (6-1, 2.48) at Cashner (2-4, 2.92)

LMJ has not found success against the Rangers; they are 19/55 (.345) with 3 HR against the youngster. Andrus has gone 4/8, and Napoli 5/8 (with 2 HR)… but again, Odor is only 2/9 with 2 strikeouts. McCullers seems to have figured out how to pitch on the road, so let us hope that he overcomes his Rangers issues as well. McCullers did go 6 1/3 with 6 hits and 2 runs allowed in his first start against Texas this year.

Cashner has pitched well but with zero run support. Current Astros sport a 15/61 (.246) line with no homers against Cashner. Aoki (5/16) and McCann (3/8) have found success, so look for Hinch to stack all the lefties he can for this lineup. Cashner pitched into the 7th, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and taking the loss in a 3-0 Astros win on May 1.

Sunday, June 4 – 2:05 PM CDT

Peacock (2-0, 2.13) at Perez (2-5, 4.19)

I thought the Rangers played Sunday nights because they couldn’t figure out how roofs or air conditioning work?

Anyways, the Rangers have hit Peacock pretty hard, with a 21/65 (.323) line that includes 4 homers. On the other hand, they’ve had a .395 BABIP, so there does seem to be a fair bit of luck involved, and Peacock is looking better this year. Look out for Beltre (7/15, 3 HR) and Odor (4/7, 1 HR). Peacock threw 2 innings of 1 run relief earlier this season against Texas.

The Astros will flip to their right handed lineup for the lefty Perez, who holds a 39/147 (.265) line against current Astros – again, no homers in the bunch. Altuve has gone 10/27 (.370) with 6 doubles, and Gattis has a 7/16 (.438) mark with a triple. Also look for Marisnick who has gone 5/14 with 3 doubles. The Astros did not face Perez in the first series.

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Let’s Shove a Silver Boot Up Their Ass http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/05/01/lets-shove-a-silver-boot-up-their-ass/ Mon, 01 May 2017 21:55:06 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13592 Rangers at Astros, 5/1-5/4

4-15 last year. You know the drill.

What have the Rangers been doing?

11-14 for April, 2-4 on their last homestand… I like this version of the Rangers.

The Rangers are hitting .220/.298/.392 as a team… and yet have scored 114 runs. If you can explain how a team that is 28th in average, 24th in on base percentage, and 21st in slugging ends up 10th in runs scored, you’re one up on me.

On the pitching side, the Rangers’ team ERA of 3.89 places them 9th in the majors, but comfortably behind the Astros’ 3.38. The difference is in their splits; the Rangers starters have a 3.37 ERA, slightly better than Houston’s (thanks, Fiers) – but the bullpen has a stout 4.75 ERA, almost 2 full runs more than Houston’s mighty pen and sword.

What have the Astros been doing?

Waldo pretty well covered this already.

Monday, 7:10 CDT – Cashner (0-2, 2.93) at McCullers (2-1, 4.34)

The Astros are 11 for 37 (.297) with no homers against Cashner, who has received absolutely no run support from his teammates this year. That 2.93 ERA also belies a lofty 1.70 WHIP, so the luck still appears to reside in Texas Dallas Arlington. Let us hope for good things from McCann (2 for 5) and Aoki (4 for 14), because Cashner has been absolutely dominant against the Astros during his career.

Thankfully the rotation places McCullers in the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park. LMJ has now gone 22 straight starts at MMPUS allowing 3 runs or less, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez. This is another great mystery of the universe – how can the guy with a 2.08 home ERA over his career have a 5.32 road ERA? As for matchups, current Rangers are 11 for 28 (.393) with 2 homers against McCullers, with the biggest damage coming from Choo (3 or 4, 1 HR) and Napoli (3 for 5, 1 HR).

Tuesday, 7:10 CDT – Hamels (2-0, 3.03) at Fiers (0-1, 5.12)

This fuckin’ guy. Current Astros are .228 (42 for 184) against him, but at least they have 8 homers. The good news is Altuve has managed 6 for 19 with a homer, and Gattis (whom you would expect to start) is 7 for 24 with 3 homers. Let’s hope that Captain Caveman carries things because Beltran is only 8 for 35 lifetime, and Correa is 1 for freaking 13.

Continuing the theme of the inexplicable… Mike Fiers has held the Rangers to 9 for 44. Lets say that again:

Mike Fiers has held a group of professional baseball players to only a .205 average.

(Of course, 3 of those 9 hits are homers.)

Odor is 3 for 9, and that’s about it… Andrus is 2 for 8, and Choo is 0 for 3.

Wednesday, 7:10 CDT – Martinez (0-0, 2.77) at Morton (2-2, 4.50)

Martinez has really struggled with the Astros – 22/66 (.333) with 3 home runs going to make for a nice early night of that bullpen. Altuve (5/15), Marwin (3/6) and especially Reddick (7/14, 1 HR) will look to make hay, while McCann (0/5) and Correa (0/4) try to get off the schneid.

Morton seems like he’s pitching better than a 4.50 ERA would suggest, and the Rangers present an opportunity to build on that. Current Rangers are only 12 for 47 (.255) – but if you can believe it, Carlos Gomez of all people looks primed to go off; 5 for 13 with 1 home run.

Thursday, 1:10 CDT – Griffin (2-0, 4.11) at Musgrove (1-2, 4.88)

AJ Griffin has found great success against the Astros – he’s held them to 14 for 69 (.203) with 17 strikeouts. Altuve has managed 8 for 18, but look at the rest of the regulars and despair:

  • Springer 1/9
  • Aoki 1/6
  • Bregman 1/6
  • Correa 1/9
  • Gattis 0/4
  • McCann 0/5

Hopefully we’ve wrapped up a series win by this point.

Musgrove has held the Rangers to 10 for 43 (.233) with 12 strikeouts, but has struggled against Nomar Mazara (4 for 9, 2 home runs).

 

 

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Astros at Rays: Respect the Streak http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/04/21/astros-at-rays-respect-the-streak/ Fri, 21 Apr 2017 22:42:00 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13578 What just happened?

The RAYS are coming off a 3-game home sweep of the Tigers where they averaged 7 runs scored per game, vaulting them all the way to… 9-8. (Seriously, folks. The AL Central is decidedly not good.) Youngster Steven Souza, Jr. is leading the team, presumably at a brisk marching tempo.

The ASTROS just secured 3 of 4 at home from the Halos by scoring… 12 runs? That’s it, 12 runs in 4 games, but we still won 3 of them? Damn, it’s nice to have good pitching.

The Astros’ winning streak has been attributed to eating grasshoppers and the fans using Ric Flair’s trademark “WOOOOOO!” This author is torn as to these trends – nobody should eat grasshoppers, and nobody but Ric Flat should WOO. But a team on a streak respects the streak, and when you’re 11-5, you don’t go changing.

Friday, April 21, 6:10 PM CDT

Fiers (0-1, 5.40) at Cobb (1-1, 4.50)

Current Rays have hit Fiers to a .294 line (15 for 51), but at least he’s only recorded 1 walk. Beware of Logan Morrison (5 for 13) but hope to face Brad Miller (1 for 7).

Current Astros have only managed to go 7 for 35 against Cobb, including 9 strikeouts and 2 walks. Almost all of the hits are courtesy of Brian McCann, who has gone 6 for 12 with a pair of homers. Reddick has the only other hit, but that’s part of a 1 for 15 record including 5 strikeouts.

None of this bodes well. Get the bullpen ready.

 Saturday, April 22, 5: 10 PM CDT

Morton (1-1, 2.81) at Snell (0-2, 2.76)

Morton has allowed a .269 average (14 for 52) to current rays, with 10 strikeouts and 4 walks – and only 1 home run. Corey Dickerson has touched him up at a 4 for 9 clip, and Logan Morrison has gone 4 for 8 with a pair of doubles. Rickie Weeks and his career 1 for 14 may sit this one out.

Snell, your standard fare crafty lefty, has been hammered in a small Astros sample – 11 for 24 with 2 homers. He has one career start against the Good Guys, a Minute Maid Park disaster where he gave up 5 runs on 9 hits in only 3 innings. Altuve, Aoki, and McCann are all 0 for 2 against him; pretty much everyone else touched him up.

Sunday, April 23, 12:10 PM CDT

Musgrove (1-1, 5.87) at Andriese (1-0, 3.38)

Let’s make this brief: Musgrove has never faced any of the Rays, and is coming off his Poo Holes Hazing treatment.

Andriese has held the Astros to 8 for 33 with 2 appearances. Altuve (3 for 4) is looking forward to this, while Beltran (1-7) and Reddick (0-4) will not.

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Royals @ Astros – Kick ‘Em While They’re Down http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/04/07/royals-astros-kick-em-while-theyre-down/ Fri, 07 Apr 2017 16:02:52 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13560 ROYALS AT ASTROS

April 7-9, 2017

OK, we got the Opening Day jitters out of the way. It’s time to get down to the long, slow business of grinding the rest of the American League into dust. Why not get a little revenge while we’re at it?

I use “revenge” loosely, of course. I’m not aware of anything eminently hate-worthy about the Royals. Blowing game 4 was much more about the Astros’ own mistakes than the ways in which the Royals took advantage of them.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST SERIES?

Astros

It was a good start; four-game sweeps aren’t easy. We’re on pace for 120+ wins, and that ain’t no thang. As an added bonus, for the first time this millennium, both the radio and TV broadcasts are good!

Thank you to our “sponsor”

In early overreactions:

  • George Springer will win the MVP unanimously, as he currently leads the AL in HR, RBI, and Win Probability Added, is second in WAR, and… um, dead last in baserunning.
  • Dallas Keuchel is BACK, and so is LMJ.
  • Jose Altuve believes his own hype and will be the worst hitter in the lineup all season.

Royals

The Royals found themselves on the wrong end of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the mighty Minnesota Twins, which is pretty low on the list of ways you would want to start your season. Even worse, their formerly unhittable bullpen gave up 14 runs in those 3 games, turning close contests into blowouts.

GAMES AND PROBABLES

Friday, April 7 – 7:10 pm CDT

Jason Vargas vs. Mike Fiers

Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and spent most of 2016 rehabilitating, making 3 September starts in his return. He has given up a .269 BA (14 for 52) against current Astros, including notables Jose Altuve (5 for 11) and Josh Reddick (6 for 30, 1 HR).

Fiers will look to rebound from 2016 and show that, whenever McHugh ultimately returns, he should keep his rotation spot. Unfortunately, the Royals are not the ideal crew for that – Fiers has given up a .327 clip (16 for 49) to current Royals; Cain, Escobar, and Hosmer have all hit him hard, and only Salvador Perez (0 for 8) has struggled against him.

Saturday, April 8 – 7:10 pm CDT

Danny Duffy (0-0, 1.50) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 0.00)

Duffy had a strong start against the Twins, giving up only 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. He has struggled against current Astros, giving up a .350 BA (21 for 60). Look for damage from Altuve (6 for 11, 2 2b) and Springer (3 for 6, 2 HR) and avert your eyes for Correa and Reddick (1 for 7 each).

Early season overreactions aside, Keuchel looked much better in the opener, keeping the ball down effectively. Current Royals have a .286 BA (36 for 126) against Keuchel, led by Cain (6 for 18, 2 HR) and Escobar (8 for 23, 1 HR). Keuchel will look forward to Moustakas (1 for 8, 7 groundouts, all to the right side) and Alex Gordon (1 for 10, 6 strikeouts).

Sunday, April 9 – 1:10 CDT

Nate Karns (0-0, 54.00) vs. Lance McCullers (1-0, 1.50)

The good news for Karns: he got two strikeouts. The bad news: Those were the only outs of his start – he walked two, gave up two, left the game, they all scored. Karns has had success against the Astros, only giving up a .224 BA (17 for 76). Reddick has had moderate success (3 for 8, 1 HR) but look out for Springer (1 for 7), Correa (2 for 12), and Beltran (2 for 12, 5 K)

McCullers managed his first start well, getting ahead of hitters and only giving up 1 run over 6 innings. (Let’s see if we can go 7, ok? Stretch goals.) LMJ has two career starts against the Royals – 1 regular season, and one playoff; the first was a 7 inning, 1 run performance, and the playoff game… well, McCullers sparkled with a 6 1/3 inning, 2 run, 2 hit effort. I don’t remember anything that happened after that, and you can’t make me.

Current Royals have only gone 5 for 30 against McCullers, with Perez (2 for 5) the only player to manage multiple hits against him.

CLOSING THOUGHT

It was pointed out to me yesterday that “Giles” spelled backwards is “Selig”.

I now feel the need to walk through Minute Maid Park with a large bell, yelling “UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!”

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40 for 40 Presents: Carlos Beltran http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/04/02/40-for-40-presents-carlos-beltran/ Mon, 03 Apr 2017 02:58:08 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13548 Who Am I?

Carlos Beltran

Designated hitter / “left fielder”

Age: 39

Height: 6′ 1″

Weight: 215″

Switch hitter, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

With a career this long, we’re going to bullet points:

  • Beltran was a 2nd round pick by the Royals in 1995. When the man was drafted, the Braves were still playing in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium… that was two stadiums ago for them.
  • Beltran came to Houston in June 2004 in a three-team deal that sent Octavio Dotel to Oakland and John Buck to Kansas City, with some spare parts going from Oakland to KC.
  • You may have forgotten this, but Beltran then signed with the Mets as a free agent following the 2005 season.
  • At the end of his Mets deal in 2011, he was traded at the deadline to San Francisco for Zack Wheeler. (Note: I legitimately did forget that he was ever a Giant.)
  • A free agent again, Beltran signed with the Cardinals following the 2011 season.
  • He actually made it all the way through a contract with one team, leaving the Cardinals for the Yankees after 2013.
  • The Yankees then traded him to Texas at the 2016 deadline in exchange for Nick Green, Erik Swanson, and Dillon Tate.
  • Beltran finally signed as a free agent with Houston in December 2016.

For those scoring at home.. since his last stint in Houston, Beltran has been a Met, (a Giant), a Cardinal, a Yankee, and a Ranger. He was one Braves uniform away from hitting for the “I hate these guys!” cycle.

Just how long has Beltran been playing? When Beltran debuted on September 14, 1998:

  • Google was 10 days old.
  • Only two Harry Potter books had been published.
  • Only three Star Wars movies existed.
  • The biggest news in technology was that America Online was interested in buying Netscape.
  • We hadn’t yet learned that Gerry Hunsicker would not trade Scott Elarton and Richard Hidalgo to get Roger Clemens.

Contract status:

Beltran signed a one year, $16M with the Astros.

Why Am I Here?

But the father said to his servants, ‘Quick! Bring the best robe and put it on him. Put a ring on his finger and sandals on his feet. Bring the fattened calf and kill it. Let us have a feast and celebrate.  For this son of mine was dead and is alive again; he was lost and is found.’ 

Let’s make one thing absolutely clear: the Carlos Beltran of 2004 is not walking through that door. The Carlos Beltran who played with the Astros for the summer and fall of 2004 put on the finest stretch of defensive center field I could ever hope to see. He put the Astros on his back and damn near willed them to the World Series.

(Oh, you think I’m exaggerating Beltran’s effect on that stacked team? In the NLCS:

  • Bagwell – 7 for 27, no home runs
  • Biggio – 6 for 32, 1 home run
  • Jeff Kent – 6 for 25, 3 home runs
  • Beltran – 10 for 24, 4 home runs, 4 steals without being caught… .417/.563/.958
  • The Astros scored 31 runs in the series; Beltran scored 12 of them.
  • Oh, and they went to seven games despite the fact that Brandon Backe started twice and Pete Munro started twice.)

This is all a roundabout way of saying: yes, Carlos Beltran broke Houston’s heart when he signed with the Mets.

GET OVER IT.

He’s back. It was 12 years ago. The man put on one of the most otherworldly displays of baseball I could ever hope to see at Minute Maid Park unless Mike Trout somehow becomes an Astro in his prime and plays way over his usual standard. Be glad he’s back. If you’re still booing him, that says a whole lot more about you than it does about him.

Oh, what is his role? Beltran is the team’s everyday designated hitter, and Hinch says he will be put into left field 20-30 games during the season.

What Are My Strengths?

That beautiful swing you may remember from both sides of the plate? It’s still there. He may not be 100% of the hitter he used to be, but just to throw the comparison out there:

  • Beltran, 2004: .258/.368/.559, 2.3 wins above replacement
  • Beltran, 2016: .295/.337/.513, 2.0 wins above replacement

He’s not quite as patient. He’s not quite as strong. But he can still hit the ball. Oh… and let’s throw one more comparison out there:

  • Houston designated hitters, 2016:  /.219/.299/.378

What Are My Weaknesses?

The defense? Gone. Beltran can barely cover left field… when placed there, he will be a liability.

The speed? Also gone. I mean G-O-N-E gone. Beltran will likely be relieved for a pinch runner in critical late inning spots.

Loves to hit: Beltran has been pretty even from both sides of the plate in his career, but last year he definitely preferred left handed pitching, posting a .338/.380/.589 line against southpaws, versus a .279/.321/.484 performance against right handers.

Hates to hit: No pitch jumps out, but as you might suspect form a hitter getting up there in years and losing a little bat speed, Beltran is weaker against pitches up in the zone than your average hitter.

What is my future with the Astros?

It’s a one year contract. Maybe they revisit it, but it seems more likely that he’s here as a stop gap until some of the younger hitters like Kyle Tucker or Derek Fisher are ready.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016 (NYY/TEX)593.295.337.513163299310
PECOTA535.252.307.428124196910
ZIPS521.271.317.464131217700
MMWAG475.266.319.433117166111

Who else would I remind you of?

As we close out this series, I’m not answering this question for Carlos Beltran. I’ve never seen anyone that does what he did in his prime. I’ll choose to remember him that way.

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40 for 40 Presents: Preston Tucker http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/04/01/40-for-40-presents-preston-tucker/ Sat, 01 Apr 2017 19:00:06 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13543 Who Am I?

Preston Tucker

Left fielder

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 0″

Weight: 215

Bats left, throws left

How Did I Get Here?

Tucker was Houston’s 7th round pick in 2012, and made his major league debut in May 2015.

Contract status:

This is Tucker’s last option year and he will be eligible for arbitration no earlier than 2019.

Why Am I Here?

Perhaps no player better exemplifies Houston’s rapidly improving depth than Preston Tucker. In 2015, he was a contributor to a playoff team, even if he only made three pinch-hit appearances against the Royals. In 2016, he struggled to make contact, a problem likely associated with a shoulder injury that ultimately ended the season. So one injury and a couple of veteran outfielders later, Tucker is an afterthought – nobody seriously discussed him making the big-league roster this spring; he only made one appearance due to his late recovery from shoulder surgery.

So Tucker is left as depth, fighting with guys like Hernandez and Kemp at AAA for the next call should an outfield injury occur.

What Are My Strengths?

Tucker makes decent contact and hits for plus power. While with the Astros in 2015, he showed a consistent line drive stroke and an ability to hit big-league fastballs.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Tucker is a limited defender, even in Minute Maid’s small left field. And while the power is nice, by late 2015 those big league pitchers were figuring out just how vulnerable to breaking balls he was.

Loves to hit: As indicated, Tucker could handle anything without much break – he hit four-seamers, two-seamers, and sinkers at a .326 clip in 2015, including 13 doubles and 7 homers.

Hates to hit: Anything off speed. In that same span, Tucker hit only .174 against sliders, curves, and changeups. This trend continued in 2016, as he only managed 8 for 56 (.143) against these pitches.

What is my future with the Astros?

Preston Tucker has nothing left to prove in the minors – he’s slugged over .500 in the minors at every level over his 5-year career. All that’s left is for him to get another shot if an injury occurs, and to show that he can make the leap to handling major league pitching on a consistent basis. As his options are running out, this looks like his last chance to show that in Houston, or else we’ll be saying “Hey, remember Kyle Tucker’s brother?” in a couple of years.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016144.164.222.328224800
2016 (AAA)253.283.332.4746583202
PECOTA34.239.297.42371400
ZIPS488.239.289.410105185722
MMWAG92.247.308.4332141100

Who else would I remind you of?

There’s very little similarity in their swings or personality, but the profile of the minor-league slugger who came up during a playoff run and couldn’t ever quite figure out major league pitchers does remind me of Mitch Meluskey.

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40 for 40 Presents: George Springer http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/04/01/40-for-40-presents-george-springer/ Sat, 01 Apr 2017 18:17:48 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13539 Who Am I?

George Springer

Outfield

Age: 27

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 215

Bats right, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Houston made Springer the 11th overall pick of the 2011 draft, and he was called up to the majors on April 15, 2014. (This had absolutely nothing to do with delaying his free agency by a year; no, he clearly needed those last two weeks in the minors.)

Contract status:

Springer agreed to a one year, $3.9M contract this offseason in his first arbitration-eligible year. He will be eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.

Why Am I Here?

Springer will make the move from right field to center this season as the Astros choose to sacrifice some defense for more consistent hitting. He will start the season leading off, and will likely remain there for the foreseeable future.

What Are My Strengths?

Springer is a patient hitter, working deep into counts and drawing a lot of walks – he was 4th in the AL in this category last year. He has power to all fields – of his 29 homers last year, 8 were to center and 10 to right. He has plus speed and was an above-average right fielder; this will hopefully translate to at least average center field play.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Working deep into those counts also results in a TON of strikeouts. 178 K’s is pretty rough to watch from a leadoff hitter.

The other issue was his baserunning. “Caught stealing” is not the category you want to lead the league in, but Springer did exactly that – he was caught 10 times while succeeding only 9.

Here’s a gift for Gary Pettis.

The other elephant in the room is health; last year was the first time Springer made it through a healthy season.

Loves to hit: Leading off the inning. Last year Springer hit .302/.397/.535 when he was the first batter of the inning – that’s a heck of a spark plug throughout a game.

Hates to hit: Springer handled curveballs better than most anyone on the team, but sliders befuddled him. With 124 at bats for sliders and only a .177 BA/.266 SLG, Springer seems to have the “can’t hit ’em, can’t lay off ’em” issue with sliders.

What is my future with the Astros?

Along with Altuve and Correa, Springer represents the core of the Astros for the next several years. I would expect an All-Star appearance or two along the way.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016744.261.359.4571682982910
PECOTA648.253.350.4491432679137
ZIPS590.251.350.4621282676126
MMWAG681.263.361.4791593187119

Who else would I remind you of?

If you added about 20 points of batting average, I think Springer would be a dead ringer for Bobby Abreu.

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40 for 40 Presents: Josh Reddick http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/03/31/40-for-40-presents-josh-reddick/ Fri, 31 Mar 2017 18:21:40 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13532 Who Am I?

Josh Reddick

Corner outfield

Age: 30

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 195

Bats left, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Reddick was originally drafted by Boston in the 17th round of the 2006 draft. He was traded to Oakland, along with Miles Head, for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney in December 2011. After several good seasons in Oakland, he was traded to the Dodgers (along with Rich Hill) for Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, and Frankie Montas. (At that point, Reddick’s season fell apart… he posted only a .396 OPS in August.) In November 2016, he signed as a free agent with the Astros.

Contract status:

Reddick signed a 4 year, $52M contract that pays evenly over the life of the contract. This seems like a huge amount for a slightly above-average corner outfielder, but according to the folks over at FanGraphs, who say that $8M per win above replacement is roughly the going rate, he may have come at a slight discount.

Why Am I Here?

Reddick was brought in to stabilize the outfield; expect to see him in right field on most days the good guys face a right handed starting pitcher.

What Are My Strengths?

Reddick has a pretty good eye, and home run strength that isn’t going to rate up there with Gattis or Correa but can definitely hold its own; 15-20 HR is a reasonable expectation. Reddick also had a reputation as a plus defensive outfielder earlier in his career, even winning a Gold Glove in 2012, but that seems to have fallen off in the last couple seasons. Finally, Reddick is slightly above average on the base paths – not a burner by any means, but showing good judgement in when to go for the extra base, and stealing at more than an acceptable rate.

What Are My Weaknesses?

Reddick looks to be prone to long slumps – his power has all but disappeared in the later parts of the season, and as mentioned above, he really cratered with the Dodgers. Also keep an eye on his defense – as mentioned above, that reputation as a plus-level defender in the corners seems to have fallen off, and right field at Minute Maid usually needs a very strong arm.

Loves to hit: Last year, Reddick was feasting on sliders, hitting .314 with a whopping .608 SLG in 51 AB.

Hates to hit: You may have heard the Spring Training reports that Reddick wants to face more left handed pitching.

Last year, Reddick got 104 plate appearances against lefties, and managed only a .155/.212/.155 line. Yes, you saw that right. He didn’t have a single extra base hit against lefties. He should only face lefties in cases of extreme emergency, or extreme blowout.

What is my future with the Astros?

You saw that contract – Reddick is here for a while. And while you’d love to see a $13M player every day, the fact of the matter is that a platoon is necessary for him – if they can work out the roster space, a Teoscar Hernandez platoon may be coming soon to an outfield corner near you.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016 (OAK/LAD)439.281.345.405112103783
PECOTA518.254.319.429119176172
ZIPS477.267.327.444116175972
MMWAG484.261.322.449118196073

Who else would I remind you of?

Bats left, throws right, good eye, decent pop but not outstanding, capable outfielder… all of this screams “Terry Puhl” to me.

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40 for 40 Presents: Jake Marisnick http://www.orangewhoopass.com/2017/03/31/40-for-40-presents-jake-marisnick/ Fri, 31 Mar 2017 16:17:23 +0000 http://www.orangewhoopass.com/?p=13525 Who Am I?

Jake Marisnick

Outfield. (All of it. No matter where he plays.)

Age: 26

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 220 (significantly higher than I would have guessed)

Bats right, throws right

How Did I Get Here?

Marisnick was originally drafted by Toronto in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft. He was traded to Florida/Miami, along with (deep breath)… Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSClafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jeff Mathis and Justin Nicolino in exchange for (another deep breath)… Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and Jose Reyes.

(We interrupt this player history to remind you that George Steinbrenner committed actual, real crimes… and was a FAR superior to Joffrey Loria. Loria has to be on the short list for worst owners ever in any sport.)

Marisnick then came to Houston with Martes and Moran in the Jarred Cosart deal of July 2014.

Contract status:

Marisnick’s first arbitration year resulted in a $1.1M contract. He has two option years remaining and will be eligible for free agency in 2021.

Why Am I Here?

Marisnick is not your classic fourth outfielder; Beltran’s remaining ability to man left field fills that spot. No, Marisnick will be almost purely a defensive specialist, and (spring training shuffling aside) he should be in center field any time he is in the game.

What Are My Strengths?

Marisnick is simply outstanding in the outfield. Tampa Bay’s Kevin Kiermaier is, by consensus and by most statistics, the best center fielder in the game – he’s on a historical level of great center field play. Marisnick has a strong argument that he’s the second best center fielder right now. His range is the highlight of this package – there is not a ball hit to center field that you think “well, he’s not getting THAT.” (Offer does not apply to home runs. Some of them.)

Marisnick can also be a highly effective pinch runner.

What Are My Weaknesses?

It seems that each spring, we’re told that Marisnick has changed his mechanics to figure things out at the plate. Thus far, it’s never been true. If he could even give you a .300 OBP, you could argue that his glove makes him an every day player; but .300 is a high aspiration for a guy who has posted .231, . 281, .281, and .257. (His refusal to take pitches is a big part of this; he has only 48 career walks against 282 strikeouts.)

Loves to hit: Go ahead and get this guy some early games. In March and April, Marisnick has posted a .338/.387/.544 slash line. Compare that to a .216/.259/.323 line in every other month, and I don’t know what to tell you… maybe pitchers come into each season taking him for granted.

Hates to hit: Marisnick on pitches up and in makes Craig Biggio look like he destroyed sliders low and away. Average exit velocity on any given ball in play is in the 80-90 MPH range; up and in, Marisnick doesn’t quite average 50 MPH.

What is my future with the Astros?

Marisnick should stay on the roster as the designated defensive wizard until his arbitration clock runs out.

What is my projected 2017 performance?

 PABAOBPSLGHHRRBISBCS
2016311.209.257.33160521105
PECOTA221.232.274.36347520104
ZIPS430.230.275.369911039197
MMWAG268.231.261.31155217158

Hey FanGraphs, there’s a bug in ZIPS. There is no conceivable way Jake Marisnick gets to double-digit homers.

Who else would I remind you of?

Look, we’re quite familiar with “this guy is so damn good in the field, if only he could hit a LITTLE bit!” But Marisnick doesn’t quite have Adam Everett’s bat, or his ears, so he doesn’t play every day.

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