ASTROS @ MARLINS
May 15-17, 2017

What happened in the last series?

The Astros took three of four from the Yankees in The House that Dallas Built on Derek Jeter Schlongfest Weekend, making an emphatic (if early) statement about the pecking order in the American League.  Mike Fiers wasn’t even completely terrible, although the bullpen deserves some ridicule for allowing ten runs in Sunday’s doubleheader.  That said, the Yanks are a good team, easily the best the Astros have played to date.

The Marlins, however, will be one of the worst teams the Astros have played.  They have dropped six straight series and are just 4-14 during that span.  That’s not even against good teams, either: five of those series losses were against teams that are currently under .500.  Their bullpen isn’t all that bad, although they have only converted four out of their ten save opportunities (second worst rate in MLB).  Their starting rotation is particularly terrible, with the third-worst ERA, second-fewest innings pitched, and most walks allowed in MLB.  Coupled with an offense that is average or slightly worse, it’s easy to see how this team is 14-22.

Schedule/Probables

Monday, May 15 – 6pm CDT
Joe Musgrove (2-3, 5.02) vs. Dan Straily (1-3, 4.03)

Musgrove’s quality start against the Braves was his second such outing of the year.  He has not faced a single Marlins hitter.

“Dan Straily” and “top-of-rotation starter” aren’t necessarily things you expect to hear in the same sentence, but if the shoe fits…?  Straily was quietly a 4.3 WAR pitcher for the Reds in 2016, turning in career lows in ERA (3.76) and WHIP (1.19).  He’s actually notched the WHIP down even further this year, currently owning a 1.08 WHIP in seven starts.  In his last start he held the Cardinals to one run over seven innings, only to have the bullpen barf up the lead.

Tuesday, May 16 – 6:10pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (6-0, 1.69) vs. Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.60)

Keuchel has never faced the Marlins, but those with ABs against him have only managed one extra-base hit and a .603 OPS.

Koehler has been a decent MOR starter for the Marlins in recent years.  In his best season (2014) he averaged about six innings per start and turned in a 3.81 ERA.  His innings have been on the decline since then (he’s now averaging only five innings per start), which may be the biggest reason his ERA has risen.  He has allowed at least three runs in all of his last six starts.

Wednesday, May 17 – 11:10am CDT
Lance McCullers, Jr. (3-1, 2.98) vs. Jose Urena (1-1, 1.98)

McCullers’s outing against the Yankees last Friday was his best, throwing six scoreless hittings while walking none and punching out seven.

I’m going to try to write this section while trying to ignore the fact that “Urena” sounds like a reproductive organ.  He has split time between starting and relief work throughout his brief career with the Marlins, and he’s never been particularly good at either (6.13 combined ERA in 2016).  It’s been a bit of a different story this year, and after some early long relief outings he was moved into the rotation when Wei-Yin Chen went on the DL last week.  Urena’s two starts have both been quality starts, including six innings of one-hit shutout ball against the Mets.  Despite being a hard thrower (his fastballs can touch 98-99) he doesn’t have dazzling strikeout numbers; he has a pedestrian 2:1 K:BB ratio this season, and even less for his career.

ASTROS @ YANKEES
May 11-14, 2017

It’s without a doubt the Astros’ highest-profile series so far: the American League’s two best teams duke it out in the Bronx for four games, up to three (and no fewer than two) of which will be nationally televised.

What happened in the last series?

The Yanks are coming off an unusual Wednesday off-day after splitting a two-game series in Cincinnati.  They are hot, winning 10 of their last 13, and they own baseball’s second-best home record at 12-3.  They are tops in the AL in runs scored (Astros are 2nd) and tops in MLB in run differential (Astros are 4th).  Their rotation trends pretty average overall, although they’ve allowed the second-fewest walks in baseball.  The bullpen, though, has MLB’s 3rd-best ERA and lowest opponent OPS.  If the Astros need a late rally in any of these games, they will need to do better than they did against another elite bullpen (Cleveland).

The Astros took care of business in a two-game series against the Braves.  To counter NYY’s second-best home record in MLB, the Astros are the AL’s second-best road team at 9-5.

Schedule/Probables

Thursday, May 11 – 6:05pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.88) vs. Michael Pineda (3-1, 3.12)

MLB Network has picked this up as their Showcase game.

Keuchel looked to be coasting to another complete game against the Angels before an unfortunate 9th inning shot both the CG and a winning decision.  However, he has enjoyed Steinbrenner-grade ownership of the Yankees in recent years, even in New York: including the 2015 Wild Card Game, he is 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP(!) in Yankee Stadium since 2014.

Pineda is off to a better start than his ERA would indicate: his 0.98 WHIP doesn’t lag far behind Keuchel’s, and his gaudy 43:5 K:BB ratio is the second best in MLB.  His ERA is also skewed from his first outing of the season, when he lasted only 3.2 innings and gave up four runs; he has a 2.32 ERA in his five starts since.  Houston has not had much trouble scoring runs off Pineda recently, giving him a 5.18 ERA in four starts against the Astros since 2015.  Correa and Springer both have two bombs off of him, and five Astros hitters have a 1.000+ OPS against him.

Friday, May 12 – 6:05pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 3.40) vs. Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.81)

McCullers had a fantastic two-hit outing against the Angels last Saturday, spoiled only by an early unearned run and a bullshit soft-contact rally against the bullpen in the bottom of the 9th.  He faced the Yankees once last season, holding them to one run over six innings while punching out ten.

The rookie southpaw Montgomery has been a pretty steady presence in the Yankees rotation since his callup during the first week of the season, and is usually good for about six innings and 2-3 earned runs.  He brings a five-pitch arsenal that includes two- and four-seam fastballs in the low-90s, low/mid-80s changeup with sinking action, mid-80s slider, and high-70s curve.  He split time between AA and AAA in 2016, going a combined 14-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.199 WHIP, and throughout his minor league career his LHB/RHB splits have been roughly equivalent.

Saturday, May 13 – 12:05pm CDT
Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.64) vs. Luis Severino (2-2, 3.40)

MLB Network will carry this game unless the Mariners and Blue Jays look more attractive.  As bad as the Blue Jays are, I won’t judge.

I was hoping that Monday’s off-game would grant us a Fiers-free series, but I guess they can’t hide him in the dugout forever.  Fiers is still really bad (good?) at the long ball, still tied for the MLB lead in home runs allowed.  He faced the Yankees once last year and gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings.

Severino has been eating innings early, with four starts of seven or more innings.  His performances have alternated between good/great and meh, and he has lacked run support in the meh starts: the Yankees have lost all of his starts when he allows three or more runs.  The Astros have only faced him once, in two scoreless relief innings last year in a game the Astros won.  

Sunday, May 14 – 6:30pm CDT
Charlie Morton (4-2, 3.63) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (5-1, 4.36)

If the start time didn’t give it away, this is ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball game.

Morton has put together some pretty decent back-to-back starts against the Rangers and Braves, falling just one out short of a quality start against the latter.  He hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2014, but one player in particular to watch out for is Starlin Castro: dating back to both of their stints in the National League, Castro is 12×27 with three home runs lifetime against Morton.

After a terrible first start on Opening Day, Tanaka has largely gotten things under control and has racked up five straight wins in as many starts.  That said, it’s kind of bizarre that the Astros have had good success against him throughout his career: he is 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA in three games against Houston, his second-worst ERA against any team, and the Astros’ .913 OPS against him is his worst allowed to any team.  

BRAVES @ ASTROS
May 9-10, 2017

Here’s a quick two-game homestand between former NLDS rivals before heading to the east coast to face the Yanks and Fish.  The Astros haven’t played the Braves since 2014.

What happened in the last series?

The Braves just got swept in their house by the Turds and have lost six of their last seven.  At 11-18 they are in last place in the NL East and only the Giants, Royals, and Blue Jays have worse records.  As such, it’s hard to find anything that they do well: their team ERA is 0.01 runs away from MLB-worst (when broken out between starters and relievers, both are comfortably bottom-third), and while their team batting average is good they are at or below average in most other offensive categories.

The Astros put the bow on another series win last weekend.  The sweep has eluded them this year, and in particularly annoying ways, but I don’t think anyone can complain too much about winning eight out of ten series so far this year.  

Schedule/Probables

Tuesday, May 9 – 7:10pm CDT
Bartolo Colon (1-3, 6.27) vs. Charlie Morton (3-2, 3.97)

Colon is undefeated at Minute Maid Park, but this may be the year to ruin that streak.  He has given up hits and runs in bunches (5+ runs allowed in half of his starts) and is having trouble consistently working deep into games.  His best start of the season came against the offensive powerhouse of San Diego (T-25th in runs scored), but since then he’s gotten rocked for 15 runs on 29 hits in his last 16 innings.  He hasn’t really lost any velocity on any of his pitches from previous seasons, although his location has drifted to the outer edges of the plate instead of staying in the middle of the strike zone.  Beltran (.277/.346/.596, 4 HR) and Altuve (.412/.412/.529) have both hit well against him.

Morton had a very good outing against the Rangers and has benefited from plenty of run support recently.  A career National Leaguer, he has played the Braves a number of times and is 2-0 against them since 2014 despite a 5.73 ERA.

Wednesday, May 10 – 1:10pm CDT
Jaime Garcia (1-1, 3.99) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-3, 5.40)

Fun fact!  Garcia was the Cardinals starting pitcher in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series that the Rangers lost in excruciating fashion.  Since then he has missed significant time with shoulder issues and thoracic outlet syndrome, but has been pretty solid in his first year with the Bravos.  He comes to Houston having thrown three straight quality starts and has pitching through the 6th inning in all but one game this season.  He has been issuing a lot of walks, though, and his current 17:13 K:BB ratio is well off his roughly 3:1 career pace.

Musgrove had a rough go in his last outing, spotting the Rangers a 5-1 lead after two innings.

ASTROS @ ANGELS
May 5-7, 2017

Off we go on a quick trip to the west coast.

What happened in the last series?

Thursday’s blowout notwithstanding, I think everyone here is happy with punking the Rangers three times in a four-game series.  Marwin Gonzalez is your new team leader in HR and RBI (!) and may be emerging as a Ranger-killer.  In just three games he went 6×10 with four bombs, raising his season average by 62 points (.204 to .266) and his OPS by 270 points (.817 to 1.087).  The Astros are one percentage point ahead of the Yankees for the best record in the AL.

The Angels are 8-5 since we last saw them and just dropped a series in Seattle in which they allowed 23 runs over three games.  They’ve also been bitten by the injury bug lately: CJ Cron is out with a minor leg injury and his DL stint will outlast this series, while Tyler Skaggs, one of their best starters so far this season, suffered an oblique strain last week and may not be back until the ASB.  They come into the series in second place, 4.5 games behind the Astros.

Schedule/Probables

Friday, May 5 – 9:07pm CDT
Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.21) vs. Jesse Chavez (2-4, 4.50)

Keuchel has already victimized the Angels this year.  Other than that, I’ve run out of useful things to say about him.

Chavez pitched well in Houston earlier this year, allowing just one run over seven innings.  Unfortunately for him, the Angels got shut out on the other side of the ball.  His next appearance was a 13th-inning relief outing against the Blue Jays, where .109/.242/.145-hitting (at the time) Joey Bats took him deep for what would be a game-winning 3-run homer.  He rebounded three days later with a quality start and a W, then took another loss to the Rangers.

Saturday, May 6 – 8:07pm CDT
Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 4.08) vs. JC Ramirez (3-2, 4.23)

McCullers’s first outing against the Angels was fantastic, allowing three runs and three walks over 6.2 scoreless innings while fanning eight.

Ramirez had the unfortunate assignment of being paired with Keuchel in his last appearance against the Astros.  He pitched a pretty decent game, especially considering his nine K’s, but left the game trailing 3-1 in the 6th.  He has also posted similar strikeout numbers against the A’s and Rangers, and over his last 12.1 innings he has allowed just two runs with a WHIP under 1.

Sunday, May 9 – 2:37pm CDT
Mike Fiers (0-1, 5.68) vs. Matt Shoemaker (1-1. 4.78)

With approximately 704 home runs allowed (look it up, I dare you), Fiers is your major league leader in that category.  Personally, I was really hoping we would draw the Angels’ Ricky Nolasco (closely behind Fiers in HRs allowed) for this game and get an orthopedist to sponsor all the neck-twisting.  Fiers did not pitch in the Angels series earlier this year, and he posted some of his worst results against them last year, going 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts (including a 17.18 ERA in Angel Stadium).

Shoemaker pitched a pretty damn good game (7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER) against the Astros in the last series, only to lose the game 2-1.  That was his only start where he made it out of the 6th inning, and he would have a number of quality starts if it weren’t for his relatively short (for him) starts.  Since the series in Houston he got his first win against the A’s, then took a no-decision in a win against the Mariners.

Rangers at Astros, 5/1-5/4

4-15 last year. You know the drill.

What have the Rangers been doing?

11-14 for April, 2-4 on their last homestand… I like this version of the Rangers.

The Rangers are hitting .220/.298/.392 as a team… and yet have scored 114 runs. If you can explain how a team that is 28th in average, 24th in on base percentage, and 21st in slugging ends up 10th in runs scored, you’re one up on me.

On the pitching side, the Rangers’ team ERA of 3.89 places them 9th in the majors, but comfortably behind the Astros’ 3.38. The difference is in their splits; the Rangers starters have a 3.37 ERA, slightly better than Houston’s (thanks, Fiers) – but the bullpen has a stout 4.75 ERA, almost 2 full runs more than Houston’s mighty pen and sword.

What have the Astros been doing?

Waldo pretty well covered this already.

Monday, 7:10 CDT – Cashner (0-2, 2.93) at McCullers (2-1, 4.34)

The Astros are 11 for 37 (.297) with no homers against Cashner, who has received absolutely no run support from his teammates this year. That 2.93 ERA also belies a lofty 1.70 WHIP, so the luck still appears to reside in Texas Dallas Arlington. Let us hope for good things from McCann (2 for 5) and Aoki (4 for 14), because Cashner has been absolutely dominant against the Astros during his career.

Thankfully the rotation places McCullers in the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park. LMJ has now gone 22 straight starts at MMPUS allowing 3 runs or less, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez. This is another great mystery of the universe – how can the guy with a 2.08 home ERA over his career have a 5.32 road ERA? As for matchups, current Rangers are 11 for 28 (.393) with 2 homers against McCullers, with the biggest damage coming from Choo (3 or 4, 1 HR) and Napoli (3 for 5, 1 HR).

Tuesday, 7:10 CDT – Hamels (2-0, 3.03) at Fiers (0-1, 5.12)

This fuckin’ guy. Current Astros are .228 (42 for 184) against him, but at least they have 8 homers. The good news is Altuve has managed 6 for 19 with a homer, and Gattis (whom you would expect to start) is 7 for 24 with 3 homers. Let’s hope that Captain Caveman carries things because Beltran is only 8 for 35 lifetime, and Correa is 1 for freaking 13.

Continuing the theme of the inexplicable… Mike Fiers has held the Rangers to 9 for 44. Lets say that again:

Mike Fiers has held a group of professional baseball players to only a .205 average.

(Of course, 3 of those 9 hits are homers.)

Odor is 3 for 9, and that’s about it… Andrus is 2 for 8, and Choo is 0 for 3.

Wednesday, 7:10 CDT – Martinez (0-0, 2.77) at Morton (2-2, 4.50)

Martinez has really struggled with the Astros – 22/66 (.333) with 3 home runs going to make for a nice early night of that bullpen. Altuve (5/15), Marwin (3/6) and especially Reddick (7/14, 1 HR) will look to make hay, while McCann (0/5) and Correa (0/4) try to get off the schneid.

Morton seems like he’s pitching better than a 4.50 ERA would suggest, and the Rangers present an opportunity to build on that. Current Rangers are only 12 for 47 (.255) – but if you can believe it, Carlos Gomez of all people looks primed to go off; 5 for 13 with 1 home run.

Thursday, 1:10 CDT – Griffin (2-0, 4.11) at Musgrove (1-2, 4.88)

AJ Griffin has found great success against the Astros – he’s held them to 14 for 69 (.203) with 17 strikeouts. Altuve has managed 8 for 18, but look at the rest of the regulars and despair:

• Springer 1/9
• Aoki 1/6
• Bregman 1/6
• Correa 1/9
• Gattis 0/4
• McCann 0/5

Hopefully we’ve wrapped up a series win by this point.

Musgrove has held the Rangers to 10 for 43 (.233) with 12 strikeouts, but has struggled against Nomar Mazara (4 for 9, 2 home runs).