Author Topic: Me likey (Read 12714 times)

Foghorn · « **on:** November 26, 2006, 01:59:38 am »

CF Taveras
3B Ensberg (move him to 5th if/when he gets his power stroke back)
1B Berkman
LF Lee
RF Scott (versus righties; Lane/Burke/Pence versus lefties; drop to #6 if Ensberg moves to #5)
2B Biggio (mainly at home, Burke on the road; these guys move to #2 if Ensberg goes to #5)
SS Everett
C Ausmus

SP Oswalt
SP Pettitte
SP Williams
SP Buccholz
SP Hirsch (the better of Buchholz/Hirsch stays in the rotation if/when Roger comes back)

RP Lidge (trade bait)
RP Wheeler (future closer?)
RP Qualls
RP Nieve (longterm answer at Closer?)
RP Miller

I'd go to war with this team.

Dobro · « **Reply #1 on:** November 26, 2006, 10:48:44 am »

Woody Williams makes me nervous. I hope they don't have to rely on him as the third starter.

I hope Lidge and Ensberg are traded.

schlumburger04 · « **Reply #2 on:** November 26, 2006, 10:20:12 pm »

youre gonna lose the war with that team. your offense stinks and your rotation scares me

Arky Vaughan · « **Reply #3 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:04:30 pm »

Quote:

youre gonna lose the war with that team. your offense stinks and your rotation scares me

Whatever.

Alkie · « **Reply #4 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:09:14 pm »

Arky, he's not talking about on-the-field.

Alkie · « **Reply #6 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:19:36 pm »

And, as you know, last year was a tremendous, total failure. The Astros were eliminated from contention by the break and the closest team above us in the standings lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Arky Vaughan · « **Reply #7 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:20:07 pm »

Berkman and Lee, if healthy, could generate a third as many runs as the entire team scored last season.

Alkie · « **Reply #9 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:23:29 pm »

JD Drew is an automatic. He's almost always healthy and has something like nine or ten (or one) seasons with 100+ RBI.

Jason Schmidt, however, is a liability for the same money because he makes 2 starts fewer than 100% per year.

Alkie · « **Reply #10 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:32:03 pm »

By the way, I just read that the Phillies and Orioles, who made significant offers to Soriano and Lee will not be making an offer to JD Drew.

Hmmmmmmm. Wonder why.

Arky Vaughan · « **Reply #12 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:44:27 pm »

Just fooling around with the numbers, Astros outfielders plus first basemen not named Berkman created an estimated 260 runs in 1,439 outs last season (4.9 runs per 27 outs). Meanwhile, Carlos Lee created an estimated 120 runs in 437 outs last season (7.4 runs per 27 outs).

Let's say you replace 437 of the outs made by Astros outfielders plus first basemen not named Berkman with 437 outs made by Carlos Lee at the same rates as last season. What's the difference?

An estimated 41 more runs. That's the difference between 12th and seventh in the league in runs scored. In Pythagorean terms, it's the difference between 83-79 and 87-75. Of course, this is all assumption built on supposition balanced on estimation tetering on guesswork.

But it gives some idea of what the Astros might've done last year had they had a bit more to work with in the middle of the order. As no doubt Noe will point out sometime this offseason as well, that's without considering what Lee's presence at No. 4 does to the approach of the rest of the hitters in the line-up.

Yeah, that offense stinks.

Alkie · « **Reply #14 on:** November 26, 2006, 11:46:52 pm »

He's not here to argue, he's here to teach.

Alkie · « **Reply #17 on:** November 27, 2006, 12:02:35 am »

My head just exploded.

This is actually, seriously, the dumbest thing you've ever said. And that's saying a lot.

Let's see if you can figure out why on your own.

schlumburger04 · « **Reply #18 on:** November 27, 2006, 12:17:27 am »

youre so funny alkie i like you

Jacksonian · « **Reply #29 on:** November 27, 2006, 12:07:04 pm »

I just read all those statistical comparisons. As I look at Foggy's lineup I wonder what the stat difference was between Lee and Huff? So far, that appears to be the only significant change to the team that went on a roll at the end of last season.

WulawHorn · « **Reply #43 on:** November 27, 2006, 07:55:49 pm »

I think that if your starting five is

Oswalt
Petitte
Williams
Hirsch
Clemens

you have enough innings there that you only need 11 pitchers. That wouldn't likely be the rotation until june so who knows for the first 2 months. Part of why we needed 12 pitchers was b/c we got so few innings with all the kids in the rotation at times when the team struggled.

D.WARD · « **Reply #44 on:** November 27, 2006, 10:39:13 pm »

Do you not know when to shut up? If you don't like the Houston Astros, go be a Braves fan or something. Seriously, stop bitching about our line-up. They will be fine. If you remember correctly, we made it to the World Series just 1 year ago with a line up not that good. Of course we had a healthy Pettitte and Clemens all year. If they come back, what's to say that they aren't better than the World Series team 1 year ago? Just shut up and stop complaining you idiot.

schlumburger04 · « **Reply #46 on:** November 27, 2006, 11:38:57 pm »

ah, another person wanting to argue semantics.

no thanks, arky is atleast nice about things, you sound like a waste of time

Alkie · « **Reply #48 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:16:53 am »

Isn't that what OWA is about? Astros fans getting together and talking nicely to each other about baseball? Did I miss something?

Alkie · « **Reply #50 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:22:18 am »

Come on, pravata, be nice. I just want to talk baseball with other nice people. Stop calling me names, making fun of my ideas, and using my words against me.

I am not an animal.

Alkie · « **Reply #52 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:26:09 am »

I never liked you. You're a meany.

Have you seen JD Drew's VADR-6?

Alkie · « **Reply #54 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:29:24 am »

JD Drew is an outfielder in MLB. If you paid attention, you'd know that he's more valuable than Carlos Lee and Jason Schmidt.

VADR-6, I made up. VADR-7 is the one that translates to win shares.

Alkie · « **Reply #56 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:41:09 am »

Let me explain how this works, dummy.

Players in MLB can easily be categorized using complex statistics. These stats, which are based 100% on quantifiable skills and abilities, will show you how many "wins" each player is worth.

In this case, VADR-7 is shown thusly:

(Runs scored * walks * at bats) / Games played + Games won + (free throw % *.5)

This will show, quite conclusively, how you can construct a team of players with a VADR-7 of 4-or-above and win 162 games.

Money, the real world, and the fact that baseball players are carbon based lifeforms and not robots are irrelevant. I can tell you using rate stats and VADR-7 how to put together a team of "automatic runs."

Stick around, polesmoke, you might learn something.

Alkie · « **Reply #58 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:53:23 am »

I have NEVER called myself an accountant.

Here's a question for you OPS-geek, if offensive production is uber alles, why isn't Mike Lamb starting at 3B every game? Why aren't we moving Lee to 2B or C?

But again, we're just arguing semantics.

It's probably because most baseball people don't know as much about the sport as people like our new resident supergenius.

WulawHorn · « **Reply #65 on:** November 28, 2006, 12:44:19 pm »

I was having a thought to myself the other day about offense v defense etc.

I thought the best way to figure this out would be this:

If albert pujols offered to play for the Astros at the same price as adam everett, but on the condition that you could only have his bat in the lineup if he played SS, would you agree to his condition?

Pujols is a thick fella, not particularly quick I wouldn't think, but a decent athlete (even played some 3b and left field many moons ago). Obviously the best hitter of this generation. Probably as ill suited to playing SS as anyone I could figure in baseball that isn't just a fat tub of goo.

I don't know how I feel. He's obviously going to add a ton of runs to the lineup over everett. Your pitchers are obviously going to give up a lot more runs on balls he doesn't get to, balls he kicks, goofs, throws away etc.

I'd like to see it in the real world. Maybe LeGenius could try it?

I really think Pujols has to be worth at 100 more runs a year than everett offensively. Could he really be 100 runs worse (an unfathonably huge number) than everett if asked to play ss? Does it really matter if he's 100 runs worse (many here- with some justification I believe) believe preventing runs is more important that creating them (in other words a lot of that 100 runs he's better offensively than everett would translate into bigger margins but not necessarily more victories).

I don't know. Just thinking that would be the most radical example I could think of.

Arky Vaughan · « **Reply #69 on:** November 28, 2006, 01:33:04 pm »

To give an idea of the potential cost of an error or unmade play, consider the following: Assuming nobody on base, an error or unmade play improves the other team's run potential as follows:

Result              0 Out  1 Out  2 Out
---------------------------------------
Batter Reaches 1st  0.534  0.383  0.209
Batter Reaches 2nd  0.819  0.604  0.348
Batter Reaches 3rd  1.028  0.802  0.382

In other words, an error (or non-play) with no outs that allows the batter to reach first results in the other team scoring an average of 0.534 runs, an error (or non-play) with no outs that allows the batter to reach second results in the other team scoring an average of 0.819 runs and an error (or non-play) that allows the batter to reach third results in the other team scoring an average of 1.028 runs.

WulawHorn · « **Reply #71 on:** November 28, 2006, 01:45:35 pm »

OK so adam everett gets credit for 1/2 of a run for every play he makes that Pujols does not. Quick and dirty. Pujols is 100 runs better at the plate, so AE would have to make 200 plays over the course of a season that Pujols could not. Figure 5 plays every four days. I guess that seems plausible that AE can make on average of a little more than one play a game than Pujols can.

The pitching staff would want to murder Pujols at SS. There would probably be a revolt. I'd still kinda like to see it to see how it would play out.

As an aside- I don't think Pujols would make 60 E6's a year. I think he probably makes about the league high of 30. I think where you really get killed is the plays he can't make, and as mentioned above the big innings and extra pitches. If he doesn't get to a bunch of balls- which I think is likely, he has fewer chances to make errors (duh). So even if his percentage of errors is way higher than the "worst" SS for total errors he has many fewer chances, so less total errors.

Like I said- it would be fun to see (as long as it wasn't my team).

Again- I don't think that W's work out that +100 in runs is equal to 100 more runs given up. I think that a defensive/pitching oriented team is better than a mashing team, b/c you cluster your runs together in 8, 9 and 10 run outbursts, but if you are giving up 6 or 7 a game you are in trouble.

No? in Austin · « **Reply #72 on:** November 28, 2006, 01:56:48 pm »

This is too singular of an analysis. What Everett provides in runs saved cannot be measured in it's entirety. Say it's two outs and Everett fails to make a play at short to allow the inning to continue. He is now on the hook for the single run he's allowed if the other team scores that player. But if the inning continues and it's a monstrousity of an inning where the other team scores 10 runs does that mean Everett allowe ten runs on his own? Well had he made the final out as a shortstop should, he can save the team those ten runs, however how in the world would anybody be able to tell he actually *saved* ten runs from scoring that inning instead of one?

You can't.

That is why you value outs for the sake of getting the other team back on the field and not for the runs scored theorum. IMHO of course. Also a big reason to keep away from valuing Defense because of the Offense provided and vice versa. You can't measure defense in it's entirety... you must measure defense on it's own merit and leave it at that.

schlumburger04 · « **Reply #92 on:** November 30, 2006, 09:22:50 pm »

ok it all makes sense now

schlumburger04 · « **Reply #94 on:** December 01, 2006, 03:17:40 am »

your extensive knowledge of the keyboard doesnt impress me

Arky Vaughan · « **Reply #97 on:** December 01, 2006, 11:12:09 am »

A few other things about Oyler:

1) He played in the lowest-scoring environment since the Dead Ball Era.

2) He only had 247 plate appearances in 1968.

3) He lasted just six seasons, being out of the majors by age 31.

JimR · « **Reply #98 on:** December 01, 2006, 11:22:33 am »

if this bullshit does not get you banned, nothing will. the fact that you are still posting is the best proof possible that i am not Spack.

Arky Vaughan · « **Reply #105 on:** December 01, 2006, 06:06:09 pm »

Cash died at 51.

mihoba · « **Reply #109 on:** December 05, 2006, 03:38:40 pm »

The Baseball Almanac has the HOF graves (several with pics) here.

I have drove right past Hornsby's grave, but never stopped. I have visited Tris Speaker's marker in Hubbard.

Author Topic: Me likey (Read 12714 times)

No? in Austin

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No? in Austin

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