Ok, my comments on the list BA provided:
Hirsh: Like that he is #1, even though Nieve was promoted to AAA before him, I think he has higher potential, and IMO is a better candidate for the rotation should Zeke and Wandy get hurt or traded. He really does need another year of working on making his change-up (his 3rd pitcher) better to be a true (1/2) starter. But I think he will be the best prospect pitching wise to come out of our system since Roy.
Patton: I really like this kid's potential, but given that he still has yet to pitch a full season and be stretched out... well there is still alot to prove. Keep in mind prospect labels have to do with projection. Patton has shown he might be all that, but as some others have pointed out he might not have been the best pitcher who started last year at Lexington. But given his age, he has the chance to be very special still.
Nieve: Well I tend to run hot and cold with him. I think that is because he has shown alot of that in his career so far. When on, he is exceptional... when not, not. While he was moved to AAA middle of last year, I think he needs at least another year before thinking about bringing him up to the big roster.
Barthmaeir: He is the other guy with Patton that started at Lexington. I think he will actually be better than Patton, but given he is older, I may be wrong and Patton may pass him up (again on that potential thing). I think along with Hirsh and Patton you are looking at hopefully the future of the Astros pitching staff. This kid is really starting to put it all together and it wouldn't surprise me to see him end the year at AA (and dominating) and then be looked at in 07 as a possible rotation guy.
Igor: WOW, I never would have thought him put this high. I think the kid has potential, but like Jacksonian stated, hard to put guys who have only 1 SS under their belt anything better than on a "watch" list.
Pence: Kid's got a mean stick, but needs to work on his defense. That seems to be the overall opinion of Hunter so far. Weak arm, will restrict him to LF if he ever makes "the show" but seems to have a good make-up at the plate with power and patience. Needs to continue to prove he can do it against tougher pitchers who throw more breaking stuff. Sad that IMO, he is out best position prospect and he is still never been to AA.
Felipe Paulino Del Guidice: With a name this long, he needs a nickname! But this kid has that potential to be a Brad Lidge/Billy Wanger type. He has a thunderbolt of a Right arm. At 22 and just reaching low A at the end of last year, he needs to put it together relatively quickly, but given the Astros put him on the 40-man, you have to like his chances.
Gutierrez: Wow the Astros have some really strong pitching at lower levels last year. Juan has some maturity issues to overcome. He is very animated and has both on and off the field antics that as I recall got him benched for a game or two last year to try to settle him down. He was put on the 40-man roster because he has been with the club since an early age. He has really high potential, but his non-baseball talent issues might be what derails him. Of the pitching prospects listed so far, he definately is the longest shot to actually make the club, but he definately has the talent to get there.
Bogusevic: I guess everyone's 1st rounder should be treated with high expectations. Given the Astros "baby-ed" him last year because of the work load he had from Tulanem, we still have not have a chance to see him really showcase his talents yet. Given his success in college and the fact that he is very athletic makes me believe he might be the real deal, but until we see what he can do as a starter it is hard to projcet him at all. He should be high on the watch list and legitimately in the top 10 next year after he has a chance to prove himself.
Flores: I think he really might be a steal for us. But as stated before, let's see what you can do over a full season. He might have that rare power-speed combo, but still has alot of learning to do, as he Ks too much and is converting from SS to OF. WAY too early to put him on the prospect list IMO, but I actually liked him more than Eli based on last year.
General Comments: Yes the Astros are stacked with REALLY high quality pitching prospects, most are still not even to AA. And only 1 has a chance to make an impact next year IMO.
There were also some pitchers left off the list that I might have been tempted to include: Matt Albers, has battled through personal problems and loss of confidence but might have turned a major corner last year and has top of the rotation stuff; Taylor Buchholz has battled some injuries and inconsistency since he came in the Wagner deal, but still has the potential to be in the rotation if injuries or trades occur; Chance Douglass to me has shown more than some of our young players who BBA put on their list, and gives us another potential pitcher in our system, and we all know you can never have enough of them.
On the batting side we have very little above high-A from last year. This is where the system is really hurting and why we are not rated higher, and why I feel trades are very possible this off-season for talent other than ML talent.
Depending on how you define Prospect (being ceiling of potential or chance to help club soon) Josh Anderson is a Taveras Clone. People argue who is the better overall player, but to me they are very similar, Taveras being a bit more polished. People may also call for Johnny Ash and Ben Zobrist to be on the list, but Ash doesn't have the "tools" that wows people, so he is often overlooked, and Zobrist is not a plus defender and as a SS that can be difficult to overcome even with his impressive On base skills. Mitch Einertson battled some personal issues this season, but when he came back he looked good, but it is difficult to live up to what he did in SS in 04. Still he might turn out to be pretty decent. Koby Clemens shows alot and given Eli and Flores were on the list I was surprised no mention of Koby just from name recognition, but his glove needs some work, but I think he has the drive to fix that problem. Chewy has long been thought of as potential given his surplus of tools, but he still can't seem to harness all that talent and hit more consistantly and reduce his K numbers. If he could somehow turn that corner, he probably is our best position player in the system, but given how long we have been saying that about him, his window is dwindling. Hector Gimenez is the only position player AA or above who projects to help the ML club. He has great defensive skills for a catcher, but still hasn't hit close to .300 at any level and has major questions with his bat. Say what you want about Ausmus, he was able to hit decently for a while during his career, there is nothing to indicate Gimenez can do even that much yet. Even so, he will likely be the AAA catcher in 06.
So in Summary, the farm system is VERY rich in pitching potential, and VERY poor in high levels at position players, but there is a crop comming that came from the 04 and 05 drafts. I figure in a year or two the Astros will be in the top 10 in minor league talent if the trends of the last couple of drafts continues.
