Hinch’s decisions and thinking/G7

[JimR]

Great article in the Athletic today concerning the stuff we have been discussing.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Thanks for the tip.   Great interview.

 https://theathletic.com/1343852/2019/11/01/qa-astros-manager-a-j-hinch-on-pulling-zack-greinke-not-using-gerrit-cole-and-other-decisions-in-game-7-loss/

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Several years ago I read a great postgame quote from Jim Leyland.   I've searched for it but can't find it.  Might have been 2011, definitely was postseason.

He basically said decisions pop up in the game,  and the interesting ones are interesting because there's no clear answer as to which one is 'right'.  So don't come at him with indignation at a decision because the other choice had about the same chance of failing as the one that was made.

[doyce7]

I've found myself saying this a lot recently, both to myself and to others, I'm pretty sure I've even said it on this site a time or two. It definitely fits here.

Just because something doesn't work, doesn't mean it was the wrong decision. Just because something works, doesn't make it the right decision.

Bringing in Harris when he did, was the right decision. 9/10 times, Harris gets the job done, and the Astros probably win the game, this was the 1. Anybody who says that bringing in Harris in the 7th was a bad decision, simply has no baseball intelligence.

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[JimR]

I've found myself saying this a lot recently, both to myself and to others, I'm pretty sure I've even said it on this site a time or two. It definitely fits here.

Just because something doesn't work, doesn't mean it was the wrong decision. Just because something works, doesn't make it the right decision.

Bringing in Harris when he did, was the right decision. 9/10 times, Harris gets the job done, and the Astros probably win the game, this was the 1. Anybody who says that bringing in Harris in the 7th was a bad decision, simply has no baseball intelligence.

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This is abosultely correct, and my heart breaks for Harris. He had been so good-the rally stopper-all year, and that chip shot cheap homer on a great pitch was so cruel. I feel only slightly less bad for JV because the narrative of his WS “failures” now will continue. The BBGs should have allowed him one more dominating game. I don’t feel so bad for the hitters; they hit the ball hard with runners on, but if a fielder is standing right there, the hitters did all they could do. These are only two of the teammates Cole let down while being a selfish ass after the game.

[Mr. Happy]

I've found myself saying this a lot recently, both to myself and to others, I'm pretty sure I've even said it on this site a time or two. It definitely fits here.

Just because something doesn't work, doesn't mean it was the wrong decision. Just because something works, doesn't make it the right decision.

Bringing in Harris when he did, was the right decision. 9/10 times, Harris gets the job done, and the Astros probably win the game, this was the 1. Anybody who says that bringing in Harris in the 7th was a bad decision, simply has no baseball intelligence.

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Absofuckinglutely correct on all scores. Will Harris has been nails all year. I feel awful for my LSU Tiger brother. He deserved a better fate, as Coach noted, getting beat on an awesome pitch (perfect call and perfect execution), that's just cruel and unusual punishment.

[Arky Vaughan]

If he'd left Greinke in, and Greinke gave up the lead, or called in Cole, and Cole gave up the lead, he'd have been attacked for that. The critics are going to bitch no matter what. Because to them, it's just a matter of pulling the right levers, and, viola, victory! That's not how the real world works.

[JimR]

If he'd left Greinke in, and Greinke gave up the lead, or called in Cole, and Cole gave up the lead, he'd have been attacked for that. The critics are going to bitch no matter what. Because to them, it's just a matter of pulling the right levers, and, viola, victory! That's not how the real world works.

I posted this in the GZ aftermath, but it works here also.

Hinch’s Harris decision, imo: he trusted Harris in that situation more than Greinke. Longer history with him, Harris had an excellent season and postseason, had Ked Kendrick in key situation in DC. As Arky said, whatever Hinch did in the 7th would have been condemned by the media and the uneducated if it did not result in a victory.

I guess I’ll get over my disappointment and disbelief about G7 in time, but I am not close to there yet.

[SoonerJim]

I’m older, so 1986 is still my saddest moment following Houston since 1968. I can now begin the process of reconciliation

[JimR]

I’m older, so 1986 is still my saddest moment following Houston since 1968. I can now begin the process of reconciliation

1980 was terrible also. I MAY be over them.

[juliogotay]

1980 was terrible also. I MAY be over them.

Until 2017 I was convinced this franchise was established simply to break my heart every few years.

[Mr. Happy]

Until 2017 I was convinced this franchise was established simply to break my heart every few years.

Hank Williams, you wrote my life.

[JimR]

Until 2017 I was convinced this franchise was established simply to break my heart every few years.

I naively thought those days were over, and certainly it would not happen this year. This team was too complete and too good. Much like 1986, I know. The BBGs did not appear to want that team to win either. To lose four games at home with our dual aces pitching three of them and Greinke pitching the fourth is unfathomable...to me at least.

[SoonerJim]

We played genuinely bad human beings in 1986

[Astros Fan in Big D]

So far first waking thought each morning has centered on the 7th inning.

I'm guessing it'll be that way for a while.

[JimR]

We played genuinely bad human beings in 1986

I have no idea what this means. We played really good players who were on a roll this time. Cannot explain the difference between the two teams’ performances at home and on the road.

[SoonerJim]

I have no idea what this means. We played really good players who were on a roll this time. Cannot explain the difference between the two teams’ performances at home and on the road.

I’m referring to off the field, Dykstra, Hernandez, and Strawberry.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

And another thing:

Correa's RBI hit deflects off Rendon's glove,  his the short wall instead of going into the corner, keeping Carlos at 1st and Alvarez at 3rd.

Not the craziest of outcomes for that particular ball (may have hit that wall without the deflection), and Alvarez may not get around from 1st to home.   But it would have been nice to see it rattle around down there.

[JimR]

1998 hurt also. Not like this, though.

[juliogotay]

I have no idea what this means. We played really good players who were on a roll this time. Cannot explain the difference between the two teams’ performances at home and on the road.

Particularly since it was not a trend during the regular season that was repeated post-season.

[Fredia]

will go down  as one of  the most bizzare  ws in history

[Lefty]

1998 hurt also. Not like this, though.

86 killed me, but I would have sworn we were going to the WS in '98

[Astros Fan in Big D]

This season the main thing I worried about,  besides injuries,  happened: the Astros didn't play their best in the postseason.

That's what gnaws at me right now.

[Dobro]

I felt more certain the '98 team was going to win it all than I did this '19 team.  For me, the '98 outcome was truly a shocker and I'm still not sure I've fully recovered from Game 6 in '86.  I so badly wanted the World Series in '98 for Biggio and Bagwell, almost as if they were my own children.  Then there was NLDS Game 3 in '99.

[Arky Vaughan]

So far first waking thought each morning has centered on the 7th inning.

I'm guessing it'll be that way for a while.

Yep. I wake up and have forgotten about it, then remember it and experience it all over again.

Think how the players themselves must feel.

[Arky Vaughan]

I posted this in the GZ aftermath, but it works here also.

Hinch’s Harris decision, imo: he trusted Harris in that situation more than Greinke. Longer history with him, Harris had an excellent season and postseason, had Ked Kendrick in key situation in DC. As Arky said, whatever Hinch did in the 7th would have been condemned by the media and the uneducated if it did not result in a victory.

I guess I’ll get over my disappointment and disbelief about G7 in time, but I am not close to there yet.

It will always be a sore spot. Just less sore with time.

If they win another one with this team, it might become less significant in context. If this team doesn't win again, it's going to stick out forever.

[Aussie Astro]

This season the main thing I worried about,  besides injuries,  happened: the Astros didn't play their best in the postseason.

That's what gnaws at me right now.

Talked to a guy I didn't know before today, a Rockies fan who recognised my Astros and asked me what happened?  I just said they blew a great opportunity for another title.  His explanation, the gnats just wanted it more...  it sounds cliche maybe, but hard to argue.

[VirtualBob]

It will always be a sore spot. Just less sore with time.

If they win another one with this team, it might become less significant in context. If this team doesn't win again, it's going to stick out forever.

This.

[Waldo]

This season the main thing I worried about,  besides injuries,  happened: the Astros didn't play their best in the postseason.

That's what gnaws at me right now.

There are worse fates than not being able to beat Scherzer and Strasburg.

At least, that's what's helping me right now.

[BudGirl]

Talked to a guy I didn't know before today, a Rockies fan who recognised my Astros and asked me what happened?  I just said they blew a great opportunity for another title.  His explanation, the gnats just wanted it more...  it sounds cliche maybe, but hard to argue.

Bullshit.  The Nationals did not want to win more than the Astros.  That's a slap in the face to the Astros.  The difference was some balls ended up in gloves and some didn't. 

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Execution.  Luck.  Fate. 

Not effort.

[juliogotay]

Bullshit.  The Nationals did not want to win more than the Astros.  That's a slap in the face to the Astros.  The difference was some balls ended up in gloves and some didn't.

Right on all accounts.

[doyce7]

Bullshit.  The Nationals did not want to win more than the Astros.  That's a slap in the face to the Astros.  The difference was some balls ended up in gloves and some didn't.

The "x team wanted it more" is the laziest, most tired, worst take in all of sports

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[BUWebguy]

My consolation is that I can look up at my wall and see reminders that the Astros won it all in 2017.

I can't imagine how bad Game 7 would have hurt if we didn't have that one.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Do I wish Hinch had left Greinke in? Yes. Did I think putting in Harris was a misteak? No. I'm so used to my Houston teams getting beat in extraordinary and disappointing fashions, that this loss wasn't that bad for me. Most of those past losses have been by the Cougars and the Oilers but the Astros and Rockets have had their share of contributions too. Washington made the plays and got the hits that they needed to win. I take my hat off to them.

[Waldo]

Do I wish Hinch had left Greinke in? Yes. Did I think putting in Harris was a misteak? No. I'm so used to my Houston teams getting beat in extraordinary and disappointing fashions, that this loss wasn't that bad for me.

The late 90s/2001 postseason losses and OU's domination of Texas from 2000-2004 (especially being in the stands for 65-13) helped me learn to not get too down about sports disappointment.  An old thread from Hornfans after 65-13 - "How many remote controls have you broken watching Texas football?" - put it in perspective for me.

Since then I've been able to enjoy the highs (2006 Rose Bowl, 2017 WS) without getting ruined by the lows (2005 WS, 2010 Rose Bowl, etc.).

[JimR]

Talked to a guy I didn't know before today, a Rockies fan who recognised my Astros and asked me what happened?  I just said they blew a great opportunity for another title.  His explanation, the gnats just wanted it more...  it sounds cliche maybe, but hard to argue.

Total bullshit. They were more fortunate in a key situation and the Astros were in theirs.

“Wanted it more” is worse than lame. It is the excuse of the clueless.

[JimR]

The late 90s/2001 postseason losses and OU's domination of Texas from 2000-2004 (especially being in the stands for 65-13) helped me learn to not get too down about sports disappointment.  An old thread from Hornfans after 65-13 - "How many remote controls have you broken watching Texas football?" - put it in perspective for me.

Since then I've been able to enjoy the highs (2006 Rose Bowl, 2017 WS) without getting ruined by the lows (2005 WS, 2010 Rose Bowl, etc.).

Regular season football games and G7 of the WS are apples and oranges to me. There is no comparison.

[SoonerJim]

It’s not like we were 2001 Seattle or something

[WVastro]

The WS in ‘17 has made everything over the last two seasons far more bearable. I’m still bummed but I’d be losing my shit if it weren’t for ‘17.

[JimR]

It’s not like we were 2001 Seattle or something

Yeah, that was great, but the past has no effect on this year for me. This was a better team which did not play as well in G7.

[SoonerJim]

Just a quick back of the envelope almanac survey; the only superteams (105+ wins) who’ve played in the ws against 90-96 or so win teams and won have been the NYY, and the BoSox last year. Many have lost outside of that restriction. Winning the WS is a formidable task in any event

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Just a quick back of the envelope almanac survey; the only superteams (105+ wins) who’ve played in the ws against 90-96 or so win teams and won have been the NYY, and the BoSox last year. Many have lost outside of that restriction. Winning the WS is a formidable task in any event

I suspect this series will eat at the guys (and AJ, and Lunhow) and they'll be ready to throw down come springtime.

It'll probably be the roughest on JV.

[BlownRanger]

I suspect this series will eat at the guys (and AJ, and Lunhow) and they'll be ready to throw down come springtime.

Hinch is on record as liking it very much when the Astros accomplish something that's never been done.  I'm pretty sure none of the previous five teams with three straight 100-win seasons went on to make it four.

[SoonerJim]

I’m a New Orleans native and watched the NFC game on TV last January, so I can process this series’ outcome

[Tom Servo]

The WS in ‘17 has made everything over the last two seasons far more bearable. I’m still bummed but I’d be losing my shit if it weren’t for ‘17.

Yep

[Knoxbanedoodle]

The WS in ‘17 has made everything over the last two seasons far more bearable. I’m still bummed but I’d be losing my shit if it weren’t for ‘17.

This is me exactly. I am telling all my customers, who are well aware of my fandom, that I’m holding my head high. This is what I say: We were a historically good team this year, we won 117 games and the pennant and beat the Yankees and it took the hottest team on the planet seven games and some freaky luck to beat us when we were slumping. Plus we won one two years ago. I’m wearing my shirts with pride.

[Waldo]

Just a quick back of the envelope almanac survey; the only superteams (105+ wins) who’ve played in the ws against 90-96 or so win teams and won have been the NYY, and the BoSox last year. Many have lost outside of that restriction. Winning the WS is a formidable task in any event

I also found it an interesting exercise to look into the history of 100-win teams in the World Series era:

37 won the World Series
30 lost the World Series
36 didn't make it to the World Series
- 7 lost in the LCS round in the wild card era
- 7 lost in the LCS round pre-wild card
- 14 (over 10% of all 100-win teams!) lost in the LDS round
- 2 missed the postseason in the division era (both pre-wild card)
- 6 missed the postseason pre-division era

[Waldo]

I'm pretty sure none of the previous five teams with three straight 100-win seasons went on to make it four.

Correct.  The 1906-1910 FTC almost made it five in a row; won 100+ every season except 1908, when they won 99.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Eight fucking outs.

[JimR]

This is me exactly. I am telling all my customers, who are well aware of my fandom, that I’m holding my head high. This is what I say: We were a historically good team this year, we won 117 games and the pennant and beat the Yankees and it took the hottest team on the planet seven games and some freaky luck to beat us when we were slumping. Plus we won one two years ago. I’m wearing my shirts with pride.

This is excellent, Devin.

[JimR]

Eight fucking outs.

With Harris, Osuna, and Cole to get them.

[JimR]

I suspect this series will eat at the guys (and AJ, and Lunhow) and they'll be ready to throw down come springtime.

It'll probably be the roughest on JV.

Yes, JV

Rays: dominating win, loss on short rest
NYY: no decision (Astros won in 11), loss
Nats; loss, loss (the team had chances to take him off the hook but failed)

1-4 in the postseason. He did not pitch bad, but he dominated only once. First inning woes plagued him.

[SoonerJim]

Yes, JV

Rays: dominating win, loss on short rest
NYY: no decision (Astros won in 11), loss
Nats; loss, loss (the team had chances to take him off the hook but failed)

1-4 in the postseason. He did not pitch bad, but he dominated only once. First inning woes plagued him.

His innings were high, and we burned him out. That's correctable

[JimR]

His innings were high, and we burned him out. That's correctable

We found the Fountain of Youth? He will have to be a willing partner in any reduction of his innings. Good way to piss him off.

[Aussie Astro]

Total bullshit. They were more fortunate in a key situation and the Astros were in theirs.

“Wanted it more” is worse than lame. It is the excuse of the clueless.

Is it worse that we were unlucky? Heard a fair bit of that.

[JimR]

Is it worse that we were unlucky? Heard a fair bit of that.

Far, far worse. Unlucky is a fact. “Wanted it more” sounds like HS football. Completely silly applied to professional baseball players in the World Series.

[SoonerJim]

We found the Fountain of Youth? He will have to be a willing partner in any reduction of his innings. Good way to piss him off.

His postseason record is 0-6, I see no  alternative

[austro]

His postseason record is 0-6, I see no  alternative

That is not correct. His WS record may be 0-5, but he has other postseason wins, including one dominant one this year.

[JimR]

His postseason record is 0-6, I see no  alternative

See above and check again. Do not forget 2017. He was MVP of the ALCS and also beat Boston twice (I think he was the winner in G5).

He beat the Rays this year, and he pitched well against NYY. Not 0-6.

[SoonerJim]

BB9    SO9    SO/W    WPA
8 ALDS      8   1   .889   2.52   13   12   0   1   1   0   75.0   49   21   21   6   29   0   87   1   0   1   296   1.040   5.9   0.7   3.5   10.4   3.00   1.65
7 ALCS      6   4   .600   3.13   11   11   0   1   0   0   74.2   56   26   26   11   17   0   79   1   1   5   296   0.978   6.8   1.3   2.0   9.5   4.65   1.59
4 WS      0   6   .000   5.68   7   7   0   0   0   0   38.0   35   27   24   9   14   0   39   1   0   2   162   1.289   8.3   2.1   3.3   9.2   2.79   -0.84
Standard Batting

OK, it's the World series. If Hinch deems it an issue, then it must be. There is a trend in the above stats

[JimR]

Three in Houston, three in Detroit, I guess.

2017 v LA: no decision (Game 2 win, gave up 3, team scored 1 while he was in), loss in Game 6 (pitched very well, 1 run in support)

2019 v. Washington: loss (gave up 4 after leaving one on when he left, team score 2 while he was in), loss (gave up 3, team scored 2).

 0-3 in WS for Astros.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

To me game 6 sticks out from that bunch like a sore thumb.

He labored like crazy just to get thru 5 and didn't protest when he was told he was done.   He's a hell of a competitor but he was spent.

[JimR]

To me game 6 sticks out from that bunch like a sore thumb.

He labored like crazy just to get thru 5 and didn't protest when he was told he was done.   He's a hell of a competitor but he was spent.

Yep, and still only gave up 3. His FB never got much above 93-94.

[Arky Vaughan]

BB9    SO9    SO/W    WPA
8 ALDS      8   1   .889   2.52   13   12   0   1   1   0   75.0   49   21   21   6   29   0   87   1   0   1   296   1.040   5.9   0.7   3.5   10.4   3.00   1.65
7 ALCS      6   4   .600   3.13   11   11   0   1   0   0   74.2   56   26   26   11   17   0   79   1   1   5   296   0.978   6.8   1.3   2.0   9.5   4.65   1.59
4 WS      0   6   .000   5.68   7   7   0   0   0   0   38.0   35   27   24   9   14   0   39   1   0   2   162   1.289   8.3   2.1   3.3   9.2   2.79   -0.84
Standard Batting

OK, it's the World series. If Hinch deems it an issue, then it must be. There is a trend in the above stats

You've got a sample size of 30 postseason starts total and seven starts in the World Series. I'd be wary of reading too much of a trend out of such a limited data set.

[Arky Vaughan]

Far, far worse. Unlucky is a fact. “Wanted it more” sounds like HS football. Completely silly applied to professional baseball players in the World Series.

You beat me to it and said it far better than I could.

They've been doing this since they were little boys, are incredibly well compensated, are among the best in the world at what they do, and were on the cusp of returning to their profession's highest pinnacle. The idea that they just didn't want it badly enough is ludicrous.

[Arky Vaughan]

Correct.  The 1906-1910 FTC almost made it five in a row; won 100+ every season except 1908, when they won 99.

Which is even scarier given that that they didn't play 162 games. Even then, they lost two World Series and didn't win the pennant once.

1906 - 116-36 - Lost World Series (to the 93-58 White Sox)
1907 - 107-45 - Won World Series
1908 - 99-55 - Won World Series
1909 - 104-49 - Finished 2nd (by 6-1/2 games; the Pirates were 110-42)
1910 - 104-50 - Lost World Series (to the 102-48 A's)

Apply those winning percentages to 162 and you get:

1906 - 124-38
1907 - 114-48
1908 - 104-58
1909 - 110-52
1910 - 109-53

People talk about competitive imbalance today. Winning that many games in an eight-team league means that the bottom-feeders were unspeakably awful.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

AussieAstro I think the mandate is clear: you need to take that dude fishing, drop him in shark infested water and tell him to swim for shore.  He'll make it if he wants it bad enough.

[SoonerJim]

You've got a sample size of 30 postseason starts total and seven starts in the World Series. I'd be wary of reading too much of a trend out of such a limited data set.

It’s his entire postseason, so you cannot increase statistical probability once you have the entire data set. How does that record compare to other “aces”, and is there diminution with age?

[JimR]

It’s his entire postseason, so you cannot increase statistical probability once you have the entire data set. How does that record compare to other “aces”, and is there diminution with age?

Verlander has gotten better the last two years. It is in all the papers; maybe you have seen it.

He pitched well in the postseason with the Astros but did not have good stuff in G7.

What about Cole in G1? What cataclysmic conclusions did you draw from that?

[HudsonHawk]

People talk about competitive imbalance today. Winning that many games in an eight-team league means that the bottom-feeders were unspeakably awful.

It was a time of haves and have nots.  There were generally only three or four teams that were above .500. 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

AussieAstro I think the mandate is clear: you need to take that dude fishing, drop him in shark infested water and tell him to swim for shore.  He'll make it if he wants it bad enough.

Too be fair he didn't say the Astros didn't want it he just said the Nats wanted it more. The Nats maybe wanted it 110% and the Astros only wanted it 109.99%...

[Waldo]

Too be fair he didn't say the Astros didn't want it he just said the Nats wanted it more. The Nats maybe wanted it 110% and the Astros only wanted it 109.99%...

To be fair, it's still a really meaningless cliche.

[JimR]

Too be fair he didn't say the Astros didn't want it he just said the Nats wanted it more. The Nats maybe wanted it 110% and the Astros only wanted it 109.99%...

Fuck being fair. It was a stupid statement.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

To be fair of course it is stupid and meaningless. To be fair trying harder doesn't guarantee shit. To be fair it is a sports cliche. To be fair you shouldn't be triggered by stupid and meaningless sports cliches that don't guarantee shit.

[Aussie Astro]

Too be fair he didn't say the Astros didn't want it he just said the Nats wanted it more. The Nats maybe wanted it 110% and the Astros only wanted it 109.99%...

Yeah, the guy was not bagging the good guys, it is funny (not sure that is the right word?) how a throwaway line has triggered so many people, make of that what you will.  I guess we will all make our conclusions about what happened eventually and come to terms with it.  I look back nearly a week after a really painful game 7 loss and I can give the gnats a half an ounce of credit for… oops, cliché free zone, right?  I don’t think that denigrates the Astros in any way.

I’m in Kalgoorlie for the week so I can’t get to it for a few days, but when I dump this poor bastard at sea, do you want me to chum the water as well?

[Astros Fan in Big D]

I’m in Kalgoorlie for the week so I can’t get to it for a few days, but when I dump this poor bastard at sea, do you want me to chum the water as well?

Chum?   We're not animals here.   Chum the water only if he doesn't bring beer for the trip.

[Mr. Happy]

Far, far worse. Unlucky is a fact. “Wanted it more” sounds like HS football. Completely silly applied to professional baseball players in the World Series.

This whole wanted it more really pisses me off. These are PROFESSIONAL athletes. Their goal is to win a championship. Have you ever seen how much work it takes to perform at that level? If you ever do, you'll change your tune quickly. They all badly want it. Preiod.