Race to the bottom

[Knoxbanedoodle]

So it looks like there will be four 100-loss teams and maybe as many as nine 90+ loss teams this year. Imagine a 90 loss season only being good for the 13th pick in the draft. Is this historic?

[subnuclear]

A quick google search found this: "The only other season to feature four 100-loss clubs was 2002, when the Tigers, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay each dropped 106 games and Kansas City fell on the final day of the season for its 100th loss."

[Knoxbanedoodle]

A quick google search found this: "The only other season to feature four 100-loss clubs was 2002, when the Tigers, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay each dropped 106 games and Kansas City fell on the final day of the season for its 100th loss."

It's nuts. I am more curious about the bulk of teams finishing with 90 losses. Nearly half the league.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

It's nuts. I am more curious about the bulk of teams finishing with 90 losses. Nearly half the league.

Unless they plan to crown a dozen different WS champions in 2024 there are going to be a lot of despondent fan bases.

[das]

I am most interested in the overall cat-n-mouse game being played here.  So many teams are following the Astros high draft pick generating "model" that the value of the play is increasingly diluted.  I wonder how many are also following the minors development part of the model as well.  It will be fun to see what the next innovation is that they dream up to stay ahead of the pack.

[BudGirl]

I am most interested in the overall cat-n-mouse game being played here.  So many teams are following the Astros high draft pick generating "model" that the value of the play is increasingly diluted.  I wonder how many are also following the minors development part of the model as well.  It will be fun to see what the next innovation is that they dream up to stay ahead of the pack.

I don't know that the realize how in-depth Luhnow & Company's plan is.  Those that left (Mike Fast) will have an idea, but it seems to me they think it is an easy fix.  I don't think there was anything easy about the Astros' rebuild.

[BlownRanger]

There will be the complaints from the players' union and agents that we've already heard about how horrible this is, but I think fans will be surprisingly content.  This is because so many of them think that what Luhnow did is easy, and if you're willing to live through several seasons of epic suckitude, World Series glory is your inevitable reward.  Most of them are going to be sorely disappointed.

[Lefty]

Started from the bottom now we here

[Jacksonian]

I don't know that the realize how in-depth Luhnow & Company's plan is.  Those that left (Mike Fast) will have an idea, but it seems to me they think it is an easy fix.  I don't think there was anything easy about the Astros' rebuild.

Right. Trade your veterans for minor leaguers. Tank and get a few high first round picks.  Wait a couple of years then World Series.

The biggest part of what Luhnow and team did was a complete rework of scouting and development.  They researched, came to conclusions, then told the scouts and development people what to look for and what to go after.  Teams that don't invest heavily in that will fail.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Got to give the three teams competing for the AL Wild Card some credit for doing it without really ever tanking. And it would be real easy for the Rays and A's to tank, what with their already lousy attendance.

With Snell and Glasnow returning, along with Morton, the Rays are a team you don't want to see in a 5 game series.

[das]

I don't know that the realize how in-depth Luhnow & Company's plan is.  Those that left (Mike Fast) will have an idea, but it seems to me they think it is an easy fix.  I don't think there was anything easy about the Astros' rebuild.

I think you have keyed in on an important point there, Leslie.  Innovation that leads to a singular good outcome is often a byproduct of the creation of a truly exceptional team at a point in time. The classic “lightning in a bottle“  event. Sustained innovation, the kind that can withstand the shedding of top-notch talent and still produce exceptional outcomes is much more rare and is tied to a culture and mindset more so than individual or collective genius. We will know over the next couple of years which example the Astros are. Having been around both in my professional career,  I tend to think it will be the latter.

[Duman]

One thing that has stood out to me this year is the number of former Astros minor league pitchers starting for other teams.  People talk about the fact that few of the Astros pitchers are home grown.  They can develop pitchers.  Just look around the league.  But they are GREAT at assessing pitchers.  They have been able to flip future potential for current excellence. 

It will be interesting to see if Elias learned that skill as he rebuilds the O's. 

[das]

One thing that has stood out to me this year is the number of former Astros minor league pitchers starting for other teams.  People talk about the fact that few of the Astros pitchers are home grown.  They can develop pitchers.  Just look around the league.  But they are GREAT at assessing pitchers.  They have been able to flip future potential for current excellence. 

It will be interesting to see if Elias learned that skill as he rebuilds the O's.

I'm watching the O's especially closely since they got Elias and Sig Mejdal.  It will be a good control example to my theory that the innovation tendencies exhibited by the Astros is a culture thing and not a genius thing.

I'm thinking one of the overarching values of the Astros braintrust has to do with Crane letting them operate with wide latitude in their areas of expertise.  Not so sure Angelos in Baltimore has it in him to let the smart people do smart things.