So the Yankees, who could use a pitcher with the injuries they have, bypass Keuchel and have signed Gio Gonzalez. They have seen Keuchel have some good games in Yankee stadium so they know he can pitch in that environment. Most all baseball people would rate Keuchel the better pitcher. In fact, MLBTR has Gonzalez ranked number 27 on their top 50 free agent list whereas they had Keuchel as the 4th best free agent. The Yankees signed Gio to a base contract of $3M with some incentives on top. MLBTR had predicted 2 at $24 for Gio. So where AAV is concerned, Gio got 25% of what was predicted by MLBTR. They predicted Keuchel would sign a deal for 4 at $82M. So, 25% of that AAV would be $5. Now, I really don’t think the price will get that low for him. If he would sign for $5M every team in the league would jump on that. But where do you think this settles?? He must still be asking for the moon for the Yankees to sign Gio instead.
I would think at this point Dallas would be panicked, if not in full blown melt down. The dollar amount teams are willing to pay must be dropping by the day, if not the hour. At this point, if he signed today he isn’t pitching in a regular season game until almost end of April. Who is giving him a $20M AAV for that? Is his price 50% of MLBTR predicted? Seventy-five percent? At what point does he realize that if he doesn’t sign, he may very well not pitch until May? June?
It is going to be interesting to see when/if he signs and for how much. I’m thinking there is no way he gets $20M at this point. I’m thinking if he signed today the price is 12-15M. It certainly appears that he would rather sit than swallow his pride and admit he (and Boras) way overestimated his market value. One thing is clear. The Yankees, who need pitching and have seen Keuchel pitch well in their stadium, appear to have had no interest at whatever price he is seeking.
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