Author Topic: 2018 Rule 5 Draft  (Read 5894 times)

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #40 on: September 24, 2018, 06:10:08 pm »
Jayne has come out with her list: https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2018/09/2018-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html

At quick first glance, the only significant discrepancy between my list and hers is that she has Randy Cesar listed as a MLFA. I'll have to look at that closer but given the many years she's been doing these lists I'll be surprised if she's wrong there (note that the Astros can of course re-sign Cesar but even if they do he'll still be Rule 5 eligible).

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2018, 09:07:43 am »
Jayne has come out with her list: https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2018/09/2018-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html

At quick first glance, the only significant discrepancy between my list and hers is that she has Randy Cesar listed as a MLFA. I'll have to look at that closer but given the many years she's been doing these lists I'll be surprised if she's wrong there (note that the Astros can of course re-sign Cesar but even if they do he'll still be Rule 5 eligible).

The other significant difference between our two lists is Enoli Paredes. There is a discrepancy on his signing date. I initially used his milb.com page (http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=660600#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL) which says he was signed on 12/3/14. But just now I went to the Astros' media guide (http://houston.astros.mlb.com/documents/5/3/0/215989530/Houston_Astros_2017_Media_Guide_kf0srvyb.pdf) and they show a signing date of 10/15/15. Given that Paredes played his first season in 2016, absent some sort of injury the more likely signing date seems to be the 10/15/15 one. If that's the case, then he wouldn't be Rule 5 eligible until next year.

I'll update the list shortly.

(Players I consider org guys such as Eduardo de Oleo, Carlos Canelon and Orlando Marquez will continue to not show up on my lists)

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2018, 12:44:01 pm »
Revised...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.7 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [5]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [28]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
1B Luis Encarnacion

All 4 of the MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Jacksonian

  • Moderator
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12848
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2018, 11:28:57 am »
With regard to the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man roster these players contracts are up following the post-season: Keuchel, Morton, Sipp, McCann, Gonzalez, Gattis.

Also, these players are out of options: Stassi, White, Kemp.

That's nine 40-man roster spot question marks going into the off-season with multiple players from Nate's list that could reasonably be added.
Goin' for a bus ride.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2018, 01:15:08 pm »
With regard to the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man roster these players contracts are up following the post-season: Keuchel, Morton, Sipp, McCann, Gonzalez, Gattis.

I know you're aware of this and I suspect you've assumed both Maldonado and Harris will return but just for those who might not be Machete is a free agent while Harris (like McCann) is subject to a club option. So among this particular group, there's an outside chance that as many as 8 roster spots get freed up. If your wish list is Morton/Maldonado/Harris all to return and the baseball fairy grants it, then 5 roster spots would be freed up.

Also, these players are out of options: Stassi, White, Kemp.

Realistically, the only way those three become a factor in the Rule 5 decision would be if they are traded by the roster deadline (Nov. 20). Do you see that happening?

Jacksonian

  • Moderator
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12848
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2018, 02:52:09 pm »
I know you're aware of this and I suspect you've assumed both Maldonado and Harris will return but just for those who might not be Machete is a free agent while Harris (like McCann) is subject to a club option. So among this particular group, there's an outside chance that as many as 8 roster spots get freed up. If your wish list is Morton/Maldonado/Harris all to return and the baseball fairy grants it, then 5 roster spots would be freed up.

Realistically, the only way those three become a factor in the Rule 5 decision would be if they are traded by the roster deadline (Nov. 20). Do you see that happening?

A. Never assume I'm not an idiot.  I completely forgot about Maldonado.  That's what happens when you've been looking at this since the season's outset.

B. Luhnow hasn't been willing to just let go of talent.  I have Harris as arbitration eligible through 2019.  I expect him to be in Houston control next season just I do Marisnick who is in a similar situation.  Of course, C...

C. Trades can happen at any time.  I do not know how strongly Luhnow feels about Stassi, Kemp, and White as longer term players for the Astros.  Either way, next year they are either on the 25-man roster or gone.
Goin' for a bus ride.

VirtualBob

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5608
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2018, 03:37:04 pm »
With regard to the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man roster these players contracts are up following the post-season: Keuchel, Morton, Sipp, McCann, Gonzalez, Gattis.

Also, these players are out of options: Stassi, White, Kemp.

That's nine 40-man roster spot question marks going into the off-season with multiple players from Nate's list that could reasonably be added.
I think there is an issue with using those spots to protect guys from the Rule 5 draft if they are planning on re-signing any of the FA's.  I am a but fuzzy on waiver rules, but I recall the Pirates losing a couple of highly regarded prospects a few years decades ago by misunderstanding them.  I *think* that if anyone is replaced on the 40-man after the draft, they need to pass through irrevocable waivers ... which would sort of defeat the point of "protecting" them by adding them to the roster.

Edited to adjust the old-guy time scale.
Up in the Air

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2018, 04:25:23 pm »
B. Luhnow hasn't been willing to just let go of talent.  I have Harris as arbitration eligible through 2019.  I expect him to be in Houston control next season just I do Marisnick who is in a similar situation. 

The more I look into the Harris situation it does becomes less clear: yes there is a club option of $5.5MM for 2019. But if not exercised by the Astros, it may be that he does fall back into his 3rd and final year of arbitration. So how much would he be awarded? Something in the $4-5MM range? That's not outrageous but it's a substantial increase from the $2.8MM he earned under his contract this season. And he turns 35 next season. And we're talking about a pitcher who may not even make the playoff roster.

The more I noodle on this the more I think Harris is gone via trade this offseason.




Jacksonian

  • Moderator
  • Double Super Secret Pope
  • Posts: 12848
  • Anonymous Source
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2018, 04:31:25 pm »
The more I look into the Harris situation it does becomes less clear: yes there is a club option of $5.5MM for 2019. But if not exercised by the Astros, it may be that he does fall back into his 3rd and final year of arbitration. So how much would he be awarded? Something in the $4-5MM range? That's not outrageous but it's a substantial increase from the $2.8MM he earned under his contract this season. And he turns 35 next season. And we're talking about a pitcher who may not even make the playoff roster.

The more I noodle on this the more I think Harris is gone via trade this offseason.

Luhnow made deals that allowed him to work the 40-man last winter.  I expect the same again this winter.
Goin' for a bus ride.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2018, 07:27:41 pm »
Hey, Roster Resource is moving in the right direction: they've added Rule 5 status info and on first look it appears to be reasonably accurate. The only downside is they don't list all players in the system. But still...progress.

VirtualBob

  • Pope
  • Posts: 5608
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2018, 07:50:27 pm »
Hey, Roster Resource is moving in the right direction: they've added Rule 5 status info and on first look it appears to be reasonably accurate. The only downside is they don't list all players in the system. But still...progress.
I think they have had that for much of the season, though it does look like the off-season layout makes it clearer.
Up in the Air

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2018, 12:48:54 am »
Updated most of the comments and made a few other tweaks here and there (including moving Erasmo Pinales up into the medium risk category)...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [27]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these five hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
1B Luis Encarnacion

All 4 of the MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2018, 03:06:32 pm »
I'll go with Abreu, Armenteros, Stubbs and Thornton being protected in the next two weeks. That would bring the 40-man roster to 38 ahead of the Nov. 20 deadline.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2018, 02:38:23 am »
Quote
MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
1B Luis Encarnacion

The minor league transactions pages show all but Encarnacion having elected free agency.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #54 on: November 07, 2018, 05:35:57 pm »
Oz wasn't bullshitting...

JJ Cooper  @jjcoop36 48m ago
Writing up Astros prospects and let me just say, there are few things prettier than Bryan Abreu's curveball. Man that's a great pitch.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #55 on: November 15, 2018, 11:38:18 pm »
Updated for the Dykxhoorn news...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

All 4 of the MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #56 on: November 17, 2018, 01:17:30 pm »
And now updated for the Thornton news...

Higher Risk [4]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [3]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

The MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #57 on: November 18, 2018, 08:45:32 pm »
Revised prediction given events...

I'll go with Abreu, Armenteros, Stubbs and Thornton being protected in the next two weeks. That would bring the 40-man roster to 38 ahead of the Nov. 20 deadline.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #58 on: November 20, 2018, 03:22:16 pm »
Revised prediction given events...

Quote
Nate Colbert on November 05, 2018, 03:06:32 pm
I'll go with Abreu, Armenteros, Stubbs and Thornton being protected in the next two weeks. That would bring the 40-man roster to 38 ahead of the Nov. 20 deadline.

Nailed it.

Nate Colbert

  • Pope
  • Posts: 7221
    • View Profile
Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #59 on: November 20, 2018, 03:30:58 pm »
So final tally is a total of 33 players eligible to be taken...

Higher Risk [1]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [3]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

The MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.