Author Topic: 2018 Rule 5 Draft  (Read 5893 times)

VirtualBob

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2018, 06:13:54 pm »
He's already been through it once and not picked.  I will argue that because his bat isn't that great there may be a number of guys at the AAA level like him.  If that's the case it reduces the likelihood of him being picked.  Being 28 at that time won't help him either.
You are probably right. He seems to have found his Rhythm this year, though, and he was doing well last year before missing time with injuries. He might be another David Matranga, though. 
Up in the Air

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2018, 03:06:39 pm »
Least surprising news of the day...

Chandler Rome @Chandler_Rome 12m ago
Jeff Luhnow said Brian McCann catching Josh James last night at Triple-A was intentional. The Astros wanted McCann's intel on James, who could make a spot start this season and will certainly be placed on the 40-man as Rule 5 protection. James was up to 100 mph, Luhnow said.

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2018, 03:01:02 pm »
Framber valdez activated for tonight's game so hes off the list of eligible draftees

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jbm

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2018, 03:03:26 pm »
Interesting news about Valdez starting, but isn't the rule 5 draft based on 40 man created at a much later date?

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2018, 03:08:02 pm »
Interesting news about Valdez starting, but isn't the rule 5 draft based on 40 man created at a much later date?
Well, once a guy is on the 40-man he is no longer rule 5 eligible. Unless hes dfa'd which would give every team the option to claim him anyway.

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TerryPuhl21

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2018, 03:14:34 pm »
Interesting news about Valdez starting, but isn't the rule 5 draft based on 40 man created at a much later date?
Hinch said today that Peacock is starting tonight but Valdez is expected to see action.


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jbm

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #26 on: August 21, 2018, 03:38:57 pm »
Well, once a guy is on the 40-man he is no longer rule 5 eligible. Unless hes dfa'd which would give every team the option to claim him anyway.

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The 40 man is a fluid list.  Relative to Rule 5, it is predicated on the 40 man on some specified date, correct?  I assume that date is in the off-season, some point near, but before the Rule 5 draft.

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #27 on: August 21, 2018, 03:42:45 pm »
The 40 man is a fluid list.  Relative to Rule 5, it is predicated on the 40 man on some specified date, correct?  I assume that date is in the off-season, some point near, but before the Rule 5 draft.
Players have to be on the 40-man by December 2nd I believe but the only way to take a player off the 40-man is dfa, release, trade, or 60-day DL.

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jbm

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2018, 03:47:33 pm »
Thanks, I didn't fully understand the restrictions in taking someone off.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2018, 04:20:26 pm »
Updated for the Valdez move to 40-man roster...

Higher Risk [7]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Duman

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #30 on: August 22, 2018, 06:22:43 am »
I expect some of the lower risk guys may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels. 
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2018, 07:23:10 am »
I expect some of the lower risk guys may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels.

Possible but not very likely. Astros players lost in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft:

2017--0
2016--0
2015--0
2014--1 (Ariel Ovando)
2013--1 (Enderson Franco)
2012--0
2011--0

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #32 on: August 22, 2018, 02:25:58 pm »

Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)

First detailed scouting report I've seen on Paredes, from our friends at https://2080baseball.com/reports/enoli-paredes/. They note that he "holds mid-90s over numerous innings [and] could be a 95-98 type airing it out in a a full-time 'pen role" but due to lack of control projects as a middle reliever.

Duman

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #33 on: August 22, 2018, 02:50:26 pm »
Possible but not very likely. Astros players lost in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft:

2017--0
2016--0
2015--0
2014--1 (Ariel Ovando)
2013--1 (Enderson Franco)
2012--0
2011--0

Convenient sample size:

2010- 1 (Jeiler Castillo)
2009- 1 (Nicholas Moresi)
2008 - 1 (Jonathon Ash)
2007 - 5 (Santo Luis, Levi Romero, Victor Garate, Patrick Sellers, Julio Puentes)
2006- 0

So over the last 12 years 1/2 the time the Astros lose at least one player in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft.  With the large number of eligible guys at A ball & High A, I will repeat there may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels.  Time will tell.

None of these guys really made much of a splash.  They were all roster fillers.  Garate made it up for a cup of coffee with the nationals.  He appeared in 4 games late in 2009.  He had a 22.50 ERA in 2 IP.   

Thanks for pulling the eligible list together, that takes a great deal of work. 
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #34 on: August 22, 2018, 04:16:08 pm »
The 40 man is a fluid list.  Relative to Rule 5, it is predicated on the 40 man on some specified date, correct?  I assume that date is in the off-season, some point near, but before the Rule 5 draft.

Rosters must be locked down by Nov. 20. The actual date of the draft is Dec. 13 this year.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #35 on: August 22, 2018, 05:56:22 pm »
Convenient sample size

Well certainly a more relevant sample given that I was looking at more recent history rather than reaching back to 12 years ago particularly given the tweaks they've made to the draft over the years (including 2016 when they eliminated the AA phase).

With the large number of eligible guys at A ball & High A, I will repeat there may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels. 

My reading comprehension was just fine the first time you wrote that, thankyouverymuch.

I'll state unequivocally the Astros will NOT lose anyone in the minor league phase. To understand why, you have to understand how the minor league phase actually works. For that, we have to go to this document: https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/majorleaguerules.pdf. The Rule 5 intricacies begin on page 57. It's wonderful reading, I must say. Absolutely wonderful.

Now to help me gauge my understanding of what's written there, I often turn to my buddy Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter. He fucking nails these rules. Smart guy, Phil, smart guy. So here's an excerpt of what he has to say in applying these rules to the Cubbies:

Quote
The Cubs also must decide by November 20th whether to place a 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor league player who is not added to the MLB 40-man roster on 11/20 on their AAA Iowa reserve list or on the reserve list of an affiliate of a lower classification. At most 38 of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguers can be placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20. However, although the AAA Reserve List limit is 38, probably more like 32 or 33 of the Rule 5 Draft-eligible players will actually be placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20, because slots need to be left open for players the Cubs might want to select in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft, as well as for free-agents signed to minor league contracts or players outrighted to the minors prior to the Rule 5 Draft. (Any Rule 5 Draft-eligible player who signs a 2019 minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft will be eligible for selection). Any 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguer who is not placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20 will be eligible for selection in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft.https://www.thecubreporter.com/08212018/cubs-2018-rule-5-draft-minor-league-free-agent-watch-list

So here's what he's saying: no matter which level a Rule 5-eligible player actually played at during the previous season, what clubs do with those guys is stuff them on the AAA Reserve List so they can't be selected in the minor league phase. The Cubbies, with between 52-57 Rule 5 eligible players, have too many guys to cram on to their AAA Iowa roster. The Astros, with just 44 such players, won't have that problem when you take into account that number will go down after Josh James, et al get added to the 40-man.

Thanks for pulling the eligible list together, that takes a great deal of work.

You're welcome.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2018, 09:19:25 pm by Nate Colbert »

Snuffy

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2018, 08:27:43 am »
Thanks for the lesson, Nate!  I had no idea!

I broke down your quote to help me "get" it. 

Quote
....At most 38 of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguers can be placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20. However, although the AAA Reserve List limit is 38, probably more like 32 or 33 of the Rule 5 Draft-eligible players will actually be placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20, because

*  slots need to be left open for players the Cubs might want to select in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft,
*  as well as for free-agents signed to minor league contracts or players outrighted to the minors prior to the Rule 5 Draft....

Very helpful.  Thanks.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #37 on: August 28, 2018, 04:53:26 pm »
Minor correction to the list, moving Encarnacion to the MLFA category...

Higher Risk [7]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [29]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey
1B Luis Encarnacion

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2018, 01:39:59 pm »
Updated for the Josh James addition to 40-man roster...

Higher Risk [6]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.7 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [29]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey
1B Luis Encarnacion

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2018, 04:59:11 pm »
And now updated for the Myles Straw addition to 40-man roster...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.7 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [29]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey
1B Luis Encarnacion