Author Topic: 2018 Rule 5 Draft  (Read 5892 times)

Nate Colbert

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2018 Rule 5 Draft
« on: August 03, 2018, 05:16:07 pm »
So let's crowdsource a list of Astros' prospects that'll have to be protected in this years' Rule 5, shall we? (And I do mean crowdsource you lazy pricks!)

So I'm sure you most of you have the Rule 5 draft rules memorized but for those few who might have forgotten:

Quote
1. A minor league player who was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract is eligible for selection starting with the 5th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season, and a minor league player who was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract becomes eligible for selection starting with the 4th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season.

2. If a player signs his first contract after the conclusion of the season of the MLB or minor league club to which he is first assigned (even if he signs prior to the Rule 5 Draft), the next season is considered to be the player's "first qualified season" for Rule 5 eligibility purposes. (Depending on the minor league, the conclusion of a minor league club's season could be as early as the first week of August, or as late as the second week of September).

3. A player eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent who signs a minor league successor contract prior to being declared a free-agent and a free-agent with prior MLB and/or minor league service who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection if the player;was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 5th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract, or the player was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 4th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract.

4. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has either been released or had his contract voided and then re-signs with the same MLB organization within one year is eligible for selection.

5. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career is eligible for selection.

6. A player on the Voluntary Retired List, Disqualified List, or Ineligible List is not eligible for selection.

7. An MLB club can designate any player on a minor league reserve list "eligible for selection" in the Rule 5 Draft even if the player would not normally be eligible, but once a player is designated "eligible for selection," he remains eligible for selection in all subsequent Rule 5 drafts. NOTE: A club might do this if the club is planning to release the player during the off-season. 

8. A minor league player-manager who would be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if he was only a player can be selected, but if he is selected, the player-manager can reject the selection and retire. He has 30 days to decide. If he rejects the selection and opts to retire as a player, the player-manager is ineligible to be reinstated as a player for a minimum of one year.   

Rules 3-8 do come into play from time to time (though presumably Rule 8 hasn't been used in decades if ever). A recent case involving the Astros was Rule 4 and the Cionel Perez situation. But bottom line Rules 1 and 2 are far and away the primary ones that have to be dealt with. Here's how I would summarize the impact of those two rules on this year's draft as far as who would be eligible to be taken:

Category
1. A HS draftee taken in 2014 or earlier
2. A college draftee taken in 2015 or earlier
3. IFAs aged 16-18 at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2014 or earlier
4. IFAs aged 19 and older at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2015 or earlier

Application of Rule 2 above to the IFAs is always the biggest challenge. Since those players are almost always assigned to the DSL or GCL and those leagues generally end their seasons in August is where that month comes into play as the cutoff date.

So let's take this category by category and we'll start with the 1st (HSers taken in 2014 draft or earlier). I've got the following:
  • C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
Agree or disagree with this list? I wanna see at least 3 responses before moving on to the next category.

(BTW, there's always a certain amount of org types dotting the rosters so let's exclude those from the list. I mean, does anyone really care if an Eduardo de Oleo is lost in the draft?)

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2018, 07:37:16 pm »
The first HS draftee from 2014 or earlier I found was Akeem Bostick. 2nd round pick of the Rangers in 2013. 23 years old and currently in Corpus.

So since he was drafted in 13 that means he was available but not taking in last winter's R5? Based on his CC stats alone, I'd say he wont get taken again but along with the stats, he doesn't seem to have the tools teams usually look for in the R5. Doesn't throw particularly hard 89-91 and hes right handed.

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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2018, 07:49:08 pm »
The first HS draftee from 2014 or earlier I found was Akeem Bostick. 2nd round pick of the Rangers in 2013. 23 years old and currently in Corpus.

So since he was drafted in 13 that means he was available but not taking in last winter's R5? Based on his CC stats alone, I'd say he wont get taken again but along with the stats, he doesn't seem to have the tools teams usually look for in the R5. Doesn't throw particularly hard 89-91 and hes right handed.

Yep, he should be on the list. Also yes that he was eligible but not taken in last year's Rule 5. Updating:

1. A HS draftee taken in 2014 or earlier
  • C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
  • RHP Akeem Bostick

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 08:07:07 pm by Nate Colbert »

MusicMan

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2018, 08:29:05 pm »
If he sticks with Akeem, he won’t get drafted. If he switches to Hakeem, someone will recognize his potential.


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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2018, 08:45:26 pm »
If he sticks with Akeem, he won’t get drafted. If he switches to Hakeem, someone will recognize his potential.

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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2018, 02:55:02 pm »
Here's a very, very preliminary pass on the next category. Do your part, assholes.

2. A college draftee taken in 2015 or earlier

RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Josh James
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
LHP Alex Winkelman
LHP Kent Emanuel
C Garrett Stubbs
C Jamie Ritchie
INF Jack Mayfield
INF Antonio Nunez
INF Nick Tanielu
OF Myles Straw
OF Drew Ferguson

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2018, 03:50:46 pm »


Here's a very, very preliminary pass on the next category. Do your part, assholes.

2. A college draftee taken in 2015 or earlier

RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Josh James
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
LHP Alex Winkelman
LHP Kent Emanuel
C Garrett Stubbs
C Jamie Ritchie
INF Jack Mayfield
INF Antonio Nunez
INF Nick Tanielu
OF Myles Straw
OF Drew Ferguson

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Josh james seems like a must protect for me. I confess, while I recognize most other names like riley Ferrell, Garrett Stubbs, cy sneed, Myles straw, Kent emanual. I dont know much about them and what other teams might want.

Riley Ferrell seems to be struggling since moving to Fresno but, that's just looking at his ERA. He seems to be the second name on that list pitcher wise who I might protect.

Myles straw, I've heard his name but this is the first time I've actually looked into him, he definitely looks like someone who needs to be protected, if hes not up in September to be a pinch runner.

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MusicMan

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2018, 03:56:14 pm »
Straw would absolutely get stashed on a roster. He’ll come onto the 40-man before 8/31 in case we need him as a PR in the postseason.


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Astrofan59

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2018, 07:58:16 am »
I tihink James, Thorton, Stubbs and Straw are definite adds.

juliogotay

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2018, 11:14:11 am »
I tihink James, Thorton, Stubbs and Straw are definite adds.

If I picked four it would be those. With Thornton being #4. But admittedly, I don't know jackshit and trust the club.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2018, 03:04:21 pm »
And now we start getting into the trickier categories as far who's eligible and who's not. My preliminary list:

3. IFAs aged 16-18 at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2014 or earlier

RHP Bryan Abreu
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Carlos Sanabria
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
C Oscar Campos
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Jonathan Arauz
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Randy Cesar
INF Juan Pineda
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


And with all due respect, I don't particularly give a shit at this point about your "this guy should be protected" comments. That comes later. Right now I'm looking for feedback as to the accuracy of the list(s).

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2018, 10:12:10 am »
And the last category...

4. IFAs aged 19 and older at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2015 or earlier

RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Enoli Paredes
RHP Yoanys Quiala
LHP Framber Valdez

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time



Also noting who's potentially gone irrespective of the Rule 5...

MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey



Again, looking for friggin' comments on the accuracy of these lists.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2018, 11:14:15 am »
Yeoman's work Nate.

From what I have which is incomplete it looks like you've pretty well got them.  If there's an outlier then it's one who won't be taken in the draft.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2018, 12:24:06 pm »
Combining all 4 lists, breaking down all 45 players by position:

Right-handers (22)
RHP Bryan Abreu
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Josh James
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Enoli Paredes
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Carlos Sanabria
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Gabriel Valdez

Left-handers (4)
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Framber Valdez
LHP Alex Winkelman

Catchers (4)
C Oscar Campos
C Ruben Castro
C Jamie Ritchie
C Garrett Stubbs

Infielders (9)
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Jonathan Arauz
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Randy Cesar
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez

Outfielders (6)
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Drew Ferguson
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda
OF Myles Straw


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2018, 05:40:32 pm »
At least a starting point for debate as to where guys might fall on the spectrum of being lost if not protected with comments on selected players:

Higher Risk [8]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time



juliogotay

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2018, 10:07:39 am »
Thanks, N.C. Great analysis!

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 10:26:53 am »
At least a starting point for debate as to where guys might fall on the spectrum of being lost if not protected with comments on selected players:

Higher Risk [8]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Given that these guys would have to stick on a 25-man roster I would flip Riley Ferrell and Randy Cesar.

Otherwise Luhnow's got his work cut out for him.
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VirtualBob

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 10:35:46 am »
Given that these guys would have to stick on a 25-man roster I would flip Riley Ferrell and Randy Cesar.

Otherwise Luhnow's got his work cut out for him.
Agreed. Cesar’s defense is suspect-to-poor, too.

A guy I would bump up the list is Jack Mayfield. Solid defense at all three IF positions and good bat control with a little pop. Missed some time with various minor injuries, but could be a nice utility pick for some team with limited post-season chances and an opening at roster spot #25.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 11:28:47 am »
Agreed with the comments regarding flipping Cesar/R. Ferrell.

Higher Risk [8]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Jacksonian

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 11:40:57 am »
A guy I would bump up the list is Jack Mayfield. Solid defense at all three IF positions and good bat control with a little pop. Missed some time with various minor injuries, but could be a nice utility pick for some team with limited post-season chances and an opening at roster spot #25.

He's already been through it once and not picked.  I will argue that because his bat isn't that great there may be a number of guys at the AAA level like him.  If that's the case it reduces the likelihood of him being picked.  Being 28 at that time won't help him either.
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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2018, 06:13:54 pm »
He's already been through it once and not picked.  I will argue that because his bat isn't that great there may be a number of guys at the AAA level like him.  If that's the case it reduces the likelihood of him being picked.  Being 28 at that time won't help him either.
You are probably right. He seems to have found his Rhythm this year, though, and he was doing well last year before missing time with injuries. He might be another David Matranga, though. 
Up in the Air

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2018, 03:06:39 pm »
Least surprising news of the day...

Chandler Rome @Chandler_Rome 12m ago
Jeff Luhnow said Brian McCann catching Josh James last night at Triple-A was intentional. The Astros wanted McCann's intel on James, who could make a spot start this season and will certainly be placed on the 40-man as Rule 5 protection. James was up to 100 mph, Luhnow said.

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2018, 03:01:02 pm »
Framber valdez activated for tonight's game so hes off the list of eligible draftees

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2018, 03:03:26 pm »
Interesting news about Valdez starting, but isn't the rule 5 draft based on 40 man created at a much later date?

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2018, 03:08:02 pm »
Interesting news about Valdez starting, but isn't the rule 5 draft based on 40 man created at a much later date?
Well, once a guy is on the 40-man he is no longer rule 5 eligible. Unless hes dfa'd which would give every team the option to claim him anyway.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2018, 03:14:34 pm »
Interesting news about Valdez starting, but isn't the rule 5 draft based on 40 man created at a much later date?
Hinch said today that Peacock is starting tonight but Valdez is expected to see action.


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jbm

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #26 on: August 21, 2018, 03:38:57 pm »
Well, once a guy is on the 40-man he is no longer rule 5 eligible. Unless hes dfa'd which would give every team the option to claim him anyway.

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The 40 man is a fluid list.  Relative to Rule 5, it is predicated on the 40 man on some specified date, correct?  I assume that date is in the off-season, some point near, but before the Rule 5 draft.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #27 on: August 21, 2018, 03:42:45 pm »
The 40 man is a fluid list.  Relative to Rule 5, it is predicated on the 40 man on some specified date, correct?  I assume that date is in the off-season, some point near, but before the Rule 5 draft.
Players have to be on the 40-man by December 2nd I believe but the only way to take a player off the 40-man is dfa, release, trade, or 60-day DL.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2018, 03:47:33 pm »
Thanks, I didn't fully understand the restrictions in taking someone off.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2018, 04:20:26 pm »
Updated for the Valdez move to 40-man roster...

Higher Risk [7]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Duman

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #30 on: August 22, 2018, 06:22:43 am »
I expect some of the lower risk guys may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels. 
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2018, 07:23:10 am »
I expect some of the lower risk guys may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels.

Possible but not very likely. Astros players lost in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft:

2017--0
2016--0
2015--0
2014--1 (Ariel Ovando)
2013--1 (Enderson Franco)
2012--0
2011--0

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #32 on: August 22, 2018, 02:25:58 pm »

Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)

First detailed scouting report I've seen on Paredes, from our friends at https://2080baseball.com/reports/enoli-paredes/. They note that he "holds mid-90s over numerous innings [and] could be a 95-98 type airing it out in a a full-time 'pen role" but due to lack of control projects as a middle reliever.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #33 on: August 22, 2018, 02:50:26 pm »
Possible but not very likely. Astros players lost in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft:

2017--0
2016--0
2015--0
2014--1 (Ariel Ovando)
2013--1 (Enderson Franco)
2012--0
2011--0

Convenient sample size:

2010- 1 (Jeiler Castillo)
2009- 1 (Nicholas Moresi)
2008 - 1 (Jonathon Ash)
2007 - 5 (Santo Luis, Levi Romero, Victor Garate, Patrick Sellers, Julio Puentes)
2006- 0

So over the last 12 years 1/2 the time the Astros lose at least one player in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft.  With the large number of eligible guys at A ball & High A, I will repeat there may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels.  Time will tell.

None of these guys really made much of a splash.  They were all roster fillers.  Garate made it up for a cup of coffee with the nationals.  He appeared in 4 games late in 2009.  He had a 22.50 ERA in 2 IP.   

Thanks for pulling the eligible list together, that takes a great deal of work. 
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #34 on: August 22, 2018, 04:16:08 pm »
The 40 man is a fluid list.  Relative to Rule 5, it is predicated on the 40 man on some specified date, correct?  I assume that date is in the off-season, some point near, but before the Rule 5 draft.

Rosters must be locked down by Nov. 20. The actual date of the draft is Dec. 13 this year.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #35 on: August 22, 2018, 05:56:22 pm »
Convenient sample size

Well certainly a more relevant sample given that I was looking at more recent history rather than reaching back to 12 years ago particularly given the tweaks they've made to the draft over the years (including 2016 when they eliminated the AA phase).

With the large number of eligible guys at A ball & High A, I will repeat there may be claimed in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft depending on if they are protected at the AAA or AA levels. 

My reading comprehension was just fine the first time you wrote that, thankyouverymuch.

I'll state unequivocally the Astros will NOT lose anyone in the minor league phase. To understand why, you have to understand how the minor league phase actually works. For that, we have to go to this document: https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/majorleaguerules.pdf. The Rule 5 intricacies begin on page 57. It's wonderful reading, I must say. Absolutely wonderful.

Now to help me gauge my understanding of what's written there, I often turn to my buddy Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter. He fucking nails these rules. Smart guy, Phil, smart guy. So here's an excerpt of what he has to say in applying these rules to the Cubbies:

Quote
The Cubs also must decide by November 20th whether to place a 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor league player who is not added to the MLB 40-man roster on 11/20 on their AAA Iowa reserve list or on the reserve list of an affiliate of a lower classification. At most 38 of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguers can be placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20. However, although the AAA Reserve List limit is 38, probably more like 32 or 33 of the Rule 5 Draft-eligible players will actually be placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20, because slots need to be left open for players the Cubs might want to select in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft, as well as for free-agents signed to minor league contracts or players outrighted to the minors prior to the Rule 5 Draft. (Any Rule 5 Draft-eligible player who signs a 2019 minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft will be eligible for selection). Any 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguer who is not placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20 will be eligible for selection in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft.https://www.thecubreporter.com/08212018/cubs-2018-rule-5-draft-minor-league-free-agent-watch-list

So here's what he's saying: no matter which level a Rule 5-eligible player actually played at during the previous season, what clubs do with those guys is stuff them on the AAA Reserve List so they can't be selected in the minor league phase. The Cubbies, with between 52-57 Rule 5 eligible players, have too many guys to cram on to their AAA Iowa roster. The Astros, with just 44 such players, won't have that problem when you take into account that number will go down after Josh James, et al get added to the 40-man.

Thanks for pulling the eligible list together, that takes a great deal of work.

You're welcome.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2018, 09:19:25 pm by Nate Colbert »

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2018, 08:27:43 am »
Thanks for the lesson, Nate!  I had no idea!

I broke down your quote to help me "get" it. 

Quote
....At most 38 of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguers can be placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20. However, although the AAA Reserve List limit is 38, probably more like 32 or 33 of the Rule 5 Draft-eligible players will actually be placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20, because

*  slots need to be left open for players the Cubs might want to select in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft,
*  as well as for free-agents signed to minor league contracts or players outrighted to the minors prior to the Rule 5 Draft....

Very helpful.  Thanks.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #37 on: August 28, 2018, 04:53:26 pm »
Minor correction to the list, moving Encarnacion to the MLFA category...

Higher Risk [7]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [29]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey
1B Luis Encarnacion

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2018, 01:39:59 pm »
Updated for the Josh James addition to 40-man roster...

Higher Risk [6]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.7 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [29]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey
1B Luis Encarnacion

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2018, 04:59:11 pm »
And now updated for the Myles Straw addition to 40-man roster...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.7 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [29]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey
1B Luis Encarnacion

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #40 on: September 24, 2018, 06:10:08 pm »
Jayne has come out with her list: https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2018/09/2018-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html

At quick first glance, the only significant discrepancy between my list and hers is that she has Randy Cesar listed as a MLFA. I'll have to look at that closer but given the many years she's been doing these lists I'll be surprised if she's wrong there (note that the Astros can of course re-sign Cesar but even if they do he'll still be Rule 5 eligible).

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2018, 09:07:43 am »
Jayne has come out with her list: https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2018/09/2018-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html

At quick first glance, the only significant discrepancy between my list and hers is that she has Randy Cesar listed as a MLFA. I'll have to look at that closer but given the many years she's been doing these lists I'll be surprised if she's wrong there (note that the Astros can of course re-sign Cesar but even if they do he'll still be Rule 5 eligible).

The other significant difference between our two lists is Enoli Paredes. There is a discrepancy on his signing date. I initially used his milb.com page (http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=660600#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL) which says he was signed on 12/3/14. But just now I went to the Astros' media guide (http://houston.astros.mlb.com/documents/5/3/0/215989530/Houston_Astros_2017_Media_Guide_kf0srvyb.pdf) and they show a signing date of 10/15/15. Given that Paredes played his first season in 2016, absent some sort of injury the more likely signing date seems to be the 10/15/15 one. If that's the case, then he wouldn't be Rule 5 eligible until next year.

I'll update the list shortly.

(Players I consider org guys such as Eduardo de Oleo, Carlos Canelon and Orlando Marquez will continue to not show up on my lists)

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2018, 12:44:01 pm »
Revised...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.7 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [5]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [28]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
1B Luis Encarnacion

All 4 of the MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Jacksonian

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2018, 11:28:57 am »
With regard to the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man roster these players contracts are up following the post-season: Keuchel, Morton, Sipp, McCann, Gonzalez, Gattis.

Also, these players are out of options: Stassi, White, Kemp.

That's nine 40-man roster spot question marks going into the off-season with multiple players from Nate's list that could reasonably be added.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2018, 01:15:08 pm »
With regard to the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man roster these players contracts are up following the post-season: Keuchel, Morton, Sipp, McCann, Gonzalez, Gattis.

I know you're aware of this and I suspect you've assumed both Maldonado and Harris will return but just for those who might not be Machete is a free agent while Harris (like McCann) is subject to a club option. So among this particular group, there's an outside chance that as many as 8 roster spots get freed up. If your wish list is Morton/Maldonado/Harris all to return and the baseball fairy grants it, then 5 roster spots would be freed up.

Also, these players are out of options: Stassi, White, Kemp.

Realistically, the only way those three become a factor in the Rule 5 decision would be if they are traded by the roster deadline (Nov. 20). Do you see that happening?

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2018, 02:52:09 pm »
I know you're aware of this and I suspect you've assumed both Maldonado and Harris will return but just for those who might not be Machete is a free agent while Harris (like McCann) is subject to a club option. So among this particular group, there's an outside chance that as many as 8 roster spots get freed up. If your wish list is Morton/Maldonado/Harris all to return and the baseball fairy grants it, then 5 roster spots would be freed up.

Realistically, the only way those three become a factor in the Rule 5 decision would be if they are traded by the roster deadline (Nov. 20). Do you see that happening?

A. Never assume I'm not an idiot.  I completely forgot about Maldonado.  That's what happens when you've been looking at this since the season's outset.

B. Luhnow hasn't been willing to just let go of talent.  I have Harris as arbitration eligible through 2019.  I expect him to be in Houston control next season just I do Marisnick who is in a similar situation.  Of course, C...

C. Trades can happen at any time.  I do not know how strongly Luhnow feels about Stassi, Kemp, and White as longer term players for the Astros.  Either way, next year they are either on the 25-man roster or gone.
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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2018, 03:37:04 pm »
With regard to the Rule 5 draft and the 40-man roster these players contracts are up following the post-season: Keuchel, Morton, Sipp, McCann, Gonzalez, Gattis.

Also, these players are out of options: Stassi, White, Kemp.

That's nine 40-man roster spot question marks going into the off-season with multiple players from Nate's list that could reasonably be added.
I think there is an issue with using those spots to protect guys from the Rule 5 draft if they are planning on re-signing any of the FA's.  I am a but fuzzy on waiver rules, but I recall the Pirates losing a couple of highly regarded prospects a few years decades ago by misunderstanding them.  I *think* that if anyone is replaced on the 40-man after the draft, they need to pass through irrevocable waivers ... which would sort of defeat the point of "protecting" them by adding them to the roster.

Edited to adjust the old-guy time scale.
Up in the Air

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2018, 04:25:23 pm »
B. Luhnow hasn't been willing to just let go of talent.  I have Harris as arbitration eligible through 2019.  I expect him to be in Houston control next season just I do Marisnick who is in a similar situation. 

The more I look into the Harris situation it does becomes less clear: yes there is a club option of $5.5MM for 2019. But if not exercised by the Astros, it may be that he does fall back into his 3rd and final year of arbitration. So how much would he be awarded? Something in the $4-5MM range? That's not outrageous but it's a substantial increase from the $2.8MM he earned under his contract this season. And he turns 35 next season. And we're talking about a pitcher who may not even make the playoff roster.

The more I noodle on this the more I think Harris is gone via trade this offseason.




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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2018, 04:31:25 pm »
The more I look into the Harris situation it does becomes less clear: yes there is a club option of $5.5MM for 2019. But if not exercised by the Astros, it may be that he does fall back into his 3rd and final year of arbitration. So how much would he be awarded? Something in the $4-5MM range? That's not outrageous but it's a substantial increase from the $2.8MM he earned under his contract this season. And he turns 35 next season. And we're talking about a pitcher who may not even make the playoff roster.

The more I noodle on this the more I think Harris is gone via trade this offseason.

Luhnow made deals that allowed him to work the 40-man last winter.  I expect the same again this winter.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2018, 07:27:41 pm »
Hey, Roster Resource is moving in the right direction: they've added Rule 5 status info and on first look it appears to be reasonably accurate. The only downside is they don't list all players in the system. But still...progress.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2018, 07:50:27 pm »
Hey, Roster Resource is moving in the right direction: they've added Rule 5 status info and on first look it appears to be reasonably accurate. The only downside is they don't list all players in the system. But still...progress.
I think they have had that for much of the season, though it does look like the off-season layout makes it clearer.
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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2018, 12:48:54 am »
Updated most of the comments and made a few other tweaks here and there (including moving Erasmo Pinales up into the medium risk category)...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [27]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these five hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
1B Luis Encarnacion

All 4 of the MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2018, 03:06:32 pm »
I'll go with Abreu, Armenteros, Stubbs and Thornton being protected in the next two weeks. That would bring the 40-man roster to 38 ahead of the Nov. 20 deadline.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2018, 02:38:23 am »
Quote
MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
1B Luis Encarnacion

The minor league transactions pages show all but Encarnacion having elected free agency.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #54 on: November 07, 2018, 05:35:57 pm »
Oz wasn't bullshitting...

JJ Cooper  @jjcoop36 48m ago
Writing up Astros prospects and let me just say, there are few things prettier than Bryan Abreu's curveball. Man that's a great pitch.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #55 on: November 15, 2018, 11:38:18 pm »
Updated for the Dykxhoorn news...

Higher Risk [5]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [4]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

All 4 of the MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #56 on: November 17, 2018, 01:17:30 pm »
And now updated for the Thornton news...

Higher Risk [4]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [3]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

The MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #57 on: November 18, 2018, 08:45:32 pm »
Revised prediction given events...

I'll go with Abreu, Armenteros, Stubbs and Thornton being protected in the next two weeks. That would bring the 40-man roster to 38 ahead of the Nov. 20 deadline.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #58 on: November 20, 2018, 03:22:16 pm »
Revised prediction given events...

Quote
Nate Colbert on November 05, 2018, 03:06:32 pm
I'll go with Abreu, Armenteros, Stubbs and Thornton being protected in the next two weeks. That would bring the 40-man roster to 38 ahead of the Nov. 20 deadline.

Nailed it.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #59 on: November 20, 2018, 03:30:58 pm »
So final tally is a total of 33 players eligible to be taken...

Higher Risk [1]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [3]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

The MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.

juliogotay

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #60 on: November 20, 2018, 06:50:59 pm »
I love your MEH Awards.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #61 on: December 06, 2018, 04:52:55 pm »
Jorge Alcala, who was sent to Minnesota along with Gilberto Celestino in the Ryan Pressly deal, was left unprotected by the Twins. The 11th-ranked prospect in their org was just added to that 2080.com list of most attractive available starting pitchers in the Rule 5 (the same list they have Akeem Bostick on).

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #62 on: December 13, 2018, 11:06:21 am »
Marlins take Riley Ferrell with the 4th pick.

Giants take Drew Ferguson in the 2nd round.

One of only three clubs with 2 players taken (Dodgers and BJs the others).

Astros themselves of course did not take anyone.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 11:16:01 am by Nate Colbert »

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #63 on: December 13, 2018, 11:39:35 am »
I'll state unequivocally the Astros will NOT lose anyone in the minor league phase.

I was wrong. Ryan Thompson got nabbed. The Astros had only 33 players on their AAA roster (they could have protected 38) so obviously they didn't care about losing Thompson. Ryan also underwent TJS back in May so they may have believed no one would take him for that reason.

Astros select C Alejandro Flores from Nationals in the minor league phase. Provides minor league catching depth. Played at A-ball Hagerstown in 2018 where he hit .216/.309/.390 in 66 games.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #64 on: February 24, 2019, 08:04:59 pm »
Giants take Drew Ferguson in the 2nd round.

Very interesting profile in The Athletic about Ferguson and his quest to make SF's opening day roster.

https://theathletic.com/834706/2019/02/23/drew-ferguson-is-the-sabermetrics-nerd-coming-to-claim-his-place-in-the-giants-outfield/

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #65 on: March 08, 2019, 11:00:50 am »
Based on those recent MLB.com "how's the roster shaping up?" stories:

On the club: Riley Ferrell (3.2 scoreless IP for the Marlins with 5 Ks and just 3 hits & 0 walks allowed)

Not on the club: Drew Ferguson (just 2-15 on the spring for the Giants)

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #66 on: March 21, 2019, 09:36:02 pm »
Not on the club: Drew Ferguson (just 2-15 on the spring for the Giants)

And was DFA'd today by the Giants after going 3-27 (all singles).

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #67 on: March 22, 2019, 05:44:52 pm »
And was DFA'd today by the Giants after going 3-27 (all singles).

Cleared waivers and returned to the Astros.