Author Topic: 2018 Rule 5 Draft  (Read 5891 times)

Nate Colbert

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2018 Rule 5 Draft
« on: August 03, 2018, 05:16:07 pm »
So let's crowdsource a list of Astros' prospects that'll have to be protected in this years' Rule 5, shall we? (And I do mean crowdsource you lazy pricks!)

So I'm sure you most of you have the Rule 5 draft rules memorized but for those few who might have forgotten:

Quote
1. A minor league player who was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract is eligible for selection starting with the 5th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season, and a minor league player who was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract becomes eligible for selection starting with the 4th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season.

2. If a player signs his first contract after the conclusion of the season of the MLB or minor league club to which he is first assigned (even if he signs prior to the Rule 5 Draft), the next season is considered to be the player's "first qualified season" for Rule 5 eligibility purposes. (Depending on the minor league, the conclusion of a minor league club's season could be as early as the first week of August, or as late as the second week of September).

3. A player eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent who signs a minor league successor contract prior to being declared a free-agent and a free-agent with prior MLB and/or minor league service who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection if the player;was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 5th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract, or the player was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 4th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract.

4. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has either been released or had his contract voided and then re-signs with the same MLB organization within one year is eligible for selection.

5. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career is eligible for selection.

6. A player on the Voluntary Retired List, Disqualified List, or Ineligible List is not eligible for selection.

7. An MLB club can designate any player on a minor league reserve list "eligible for selection" in the Rule 5 Draft even if the player would not normally be eligible, but once a player is designated "eligible for selection," he remains eligible for selection in all subsequent Rule 5 drafts. NOTE: A club might do this if the club is planning to release the player during the off-season. 

8. A minor league player-manager who would be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if he was only a player can be selected, but if he is selected, the player-manager can reject the selection and retire. He has 30 days to decide. If he rejects the selection and opts to retire as a player, the player-manager is ineligible to be reinstated as a player for a minimum of one year.   

Rules 3-8 do come into play from time to time (though presumably Rule 8 hasn't been used in decades if ever). A recent case involving the Astros was Rule 4 and the Cionel Perez situation. But bottom line Rules 1 and 2 are far and away the primary ones that have to be dealt with. Here's how I would summarize the impact of those two rules on this year's draft as far as who would be eligible to be taken:

Category
1. A HS draftee taken in 2014 or earlier
2. A college draftee taken in 2015 or earlier
3. IFAs aged 16-18 at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2014 or earlier
4. IFAs aged 19 and older at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2015 or earlier

Application of Rule 2 above to the IFAs is always the biggest challenge. Since those players are almost always assigned to the DSL or GCL and those leagues generally end their seasons in August is where that month comes into play as the cutoff date.

So let's take this category by category and we'll start with the 1st (HSers taken in 2014 draft or earlier). I've got the following:
  • C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
Agree or disagree with this list? I wanna see at least 3 responses before moving on to the next category.

(BTW, there's always a certain amount of org types dotting the rosters so let's exclude those from the list. I mean, does anyone really care if an Eduardo de Oleo is lost in the draft?)

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2018, 07:37:16 pm »
The first HS draftee from 2014 or earlier I found was Akeem Bostick. 2nd round pick of the Rangers in 2013. 23 years old and currently in Corpus.

So since he was drafted in 13 that means he was available but not taking in last winter's R5? Based on his CC stats alone, I'd say he wont get taken again but along with the stats, he doesn't seem to have the tools teams usually look for in the R5. Doesn't throw particularly hard 89-91 and hes right handed.

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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2018, 07:49:08 pm »
The first HS draftee from 2014 or earlier I found was Akeem Bostick. 2nd round pick of the Rangers in 2013. 23 years old and currently in Corpus.

So since he was drafted in 13 that means he was available but not taking in last winter's R5? Based on his CC stats alone, I'd say he wont get taken again but along with the stats, he doesn't seem to have the tools teams usually look for in the R5. Doesn't throw particularly hard 89-91 and hes right handed.

Yep, he should be on the list. Also yes that he was eligible but not taken in last year's Rule 5. Updating:

1. A HS draftee taken in 2014 or earlier
  • C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
  • RHP Akeem Bostick

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 08:07:07 pm by Nate Colbert »

MusicMan

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2018, 08:29:05 pm »
If he sticks with Akeem, he won’t get drafted. If he switches to Hakeem, someone will recognize his potential.


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austro

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2018, 08:45:26 pm »
If he sticks with Akeem, he won’t get drafted. If he switches to Hakeem, someone will recognize his potential.

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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2018, 02:55:02 pm »
Here's a very, very preliminary pass on the next category. Do your part, assholes.

2. A college draftee taken in 2015 or earlier

RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Josh James
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
LHP Alex Winkelman
LHP Kent Emanuel
C Garrett Stubbs
C Jamie Ritchie
INF Jack Mayfield
INF Antonio Nunez
INF Nick Tanielu
OF Myles Straw
OF Drew Ferguson

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

doyce7

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2018, 03:50:46 pm »


Here's a very, very preliminary pass on the next category. Do your part, assholes.

2. A college draftee taken in 2015 or earlier

RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Josh James
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
LHP Alex Winkelman
LHP Kent Emanuel
C Garrett Stubbs
C Jamie Ritchie
INF Jack Mayfield
INF Antonio Nunez
INF Nick Tanielu
OF Myles Straw
OF Drew Ferguson

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Josh james seems like a must protect for me. I confess, while I recognize most other names like riley Ferrell, Garrett Stubbs, cy sneed, Myles straw, Kent emanual. I dont know much about them and what other teams might want.

Riley Ferrell seems to be struggling since moving to Fresno but, that's just looking at his ERA. He seems to be the second name on that list pitcher wise who I might protect.

Myles straw, I've heard his name but this is the first time I've actually looked into him, he definitely looks like someone who needs to be protected, if hes not up in September to be a pinch runner.

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MusicMan

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2018, 03:56:14 pm »
Straw would absolutely get stashed on a roster. He’ll come onto the 40-man before 8/31 in case we need him as a PR in the postseason.


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Astrofan59

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2018, 07:58:16 am »
I tihink James, Thorton, Stubbs and Straw are definite adds.

juliogotay

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2018, 11:14:11 am »
I tihink James, Thorton, Stubbs and Straw are definite adds.

If I picked four it would be those. With Thornton being #4. But admittedly, I don't know jackshit and trust the club.

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2018, 03:04:21 pm »
And now we start getting into the trickier categories as far who's eligible and who's not. My preliminary list:

3. IFAs aged 16-18 at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2014 or earlier

RHP Bryan Abreu
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Carlos Sanabria
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
C Oscar Campos
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Jonathan Arauz
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Randy Cesar
INF Juan Pineda
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


And with all due respect, I don't particularly give a shit at this point about your "this guy should be protected" comments. That comes later. Right now I'm looking for feedback as to the accuracy of the list(s).

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2018, 10:12:10 am »
And the last category...

4. IFAs aged 19 and older at signing who inked a contract in Aug 2015 or earlier

RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Enoli Paredes
RHP Yoanys Quiala
LHP Framber Valdez

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time



Also noting who's potentially gone irrespective of the Rule 5...

MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey



Again, looking for friggin' comments on the accuracy of these lists.

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2018, 11:14:15 am »
Yeoman's work Nate.

From what I have which is incomplete it looks like you've pretty well got them.  If there's an outlier then it's one who won't be taken in the draft.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2018, 12:24:06 pm »
Combining all 4 lists, breaking down all 45 players by position:

Right-handers (22)
RHP Bryan Abreu
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Josh James
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Enoli Paredes
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Carlos Sanabria
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Gabriel Valdez

Left-handers (4)
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Framber Valdez
LHP Alex Winkelman

Catchers (4)
C Oscar Campos
C Ruben Castro
C Jamie Ritchie
C Garrett Stubbs

Infielders (9)
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Jonathan Arauz
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Randy Cesar
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez

Outfielders (6)
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Drew Ferguson
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda
OF Myles Straw


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time


MLFAs
RHP Matt Ramsey

Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2018, 05:40:32 pm »
At least a starting point for debate as to where guys might fall on the spectrum of being lost if not protected with comments on selected players:

Higher Risk [8]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time



juliogotay

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2018, 10:07:39 am »
Thanks, N.C. Great analysis!

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 10:26:53 am »
At least a starting point for debate as to where guys might fall on the spectrum of being lost if not protected with comments on selected players:

Higher Risk [8]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Given that these guys would have to stick on a 25-man roster I would flip Riley Ferrell and Randy Cesar.

Otherwise Luhnow's got his work cut out for him.
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VirtualBob

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 10:35:46 am »
Given that these guys would have to stick on a 25-man roster I would flip Riley Ferrell and Randy Cesar.

Otherwise Luhnow's got his work cut out for him.
Agreed. Cesar’s defense is suspect-to-poor, too.

A guy I would bump up the list is Jack Mayfield. Solid defense at all three IF positions and good bat control with a little pop. Missed some time with various minor injuries, but could be a nice utility pick for some team with limited post-season chances and an opening at roster spot #25.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 11:28:47 am »
Agreed with the comments regarding flipping Cesar/R. Ferrell.

Higher Risk [8]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, questions are whether he has truly put control problems behind him and why he has yet to sniff any of the prospect lists
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [7]
RHP Enoli Paredes--something of a breakthrough season has him moving up to the backend of some prospect lists (e.g., #36 at FG)
RHP Carlos Sanabria--a 13.3 K/9 at QC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, having a nice offensive season for QC, no defensive scouting report but is throwing out 42% of baserunners
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.172/.213/.284 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
INF Randy Cesar--high profile breakthrough season (and still just 23) presumably rachets up interest level this year versus last, #26 on the MLB.com prospect list
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list
OF Drew Ferguson--current 7-week stint on the DL does cloud the issue but as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com list


Lower Risk [30]
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Angel Heredia
RHP Jose Hernandez
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
1B Luis Encarnacion
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda


Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

Jacksonian

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Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 11:40:57 am »
A guy I would bump up the list is Jack Mayfield. Solid defense at all three IF positions and good bat control with a little pop. Missed some time with various minor injuries, but could be a nice utility pick for some team with limited post-season chances and an opening at roster spot #25.

He's already been through it once and not picked.  I will argue that because his bat isn't that great there may be a number of guys at the AAA level like him.  If that's the case it reduces the likelihood of him being picked.  Being 28 at that time won't help him either.
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