Author Topic: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019  (Read 15589 times)

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2018, 05:14:26 pm »
Tweet from MLB Pipeline re Framber:

The 24-year-old Dominican is one of just 5 LHPs on all 30 team Top 30 lists with ≥ 60 FB, ≥ 60 CB & ≥ 50 CH.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2018, 11:26:41 pm »
Like with the recent updated FG board, just noting names that haven't shown up on any other lists. This is from the BP preseason Astros prospect list for players in the 11-20 range:

OF Carlos Machado--Machado is an excellent contact hitter with a direct bat path and advanced feel to hit and plate discipline for his youth. He routinely finds himself in hitter’s counts and rips liners gap-to-gap when pitches are in the zone. There is some power here with a projectable body, but his current approach does not suggest a major power spike. As a result, Machado fulfills the tweener risk profile, since it’s a corner outfield defensive future. An average athlete, Machado’s bat and plate discipline will keep him climbing up the ladder, but he will likely need to find more power (or hit at an elite level) to carve out a regular role at the big league level. —John Eshleman

Linked to previously but if you haven't seen it: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36096/houston-astros-top-10-prospects-forrest-whitley-kyle-tucker/


Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #42 on: August 22, 2018, 01:30:48 pm »
Well the prospect gurus are finally picking up on Bryan Abreu. FG added him at #28 to their prospect board with Longenhagen saying:

"...has generated varying reports throughout the year, at times 92-94 with a 50 breaking ball and 40 control (which is barely a prospect) and others when he’s been up to 97, sitting 94-95 with big vertical action on one of two his breaking balls. I think the fastball (which is pretty straight) plays better out of the bullpen and I’m skeptical of Abreu’s short-term walk rate improvement because I’ve still got scouts questioning his command and it’s been an issue for Abreu in the past."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-8-15-18/

Some video on Abreu from https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/bryan-abreu/

In the vid it says 92-94 on the FB, topping out at 95. It should be noted however that the filming is from a V-Cats game over two months ago and was Abreu's first outing of the year. That might account for the "varying reports" noted by Longenhagen, with less flashy numbers when he first came out of EST and he's throwing harder as the season has progressed.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #43 on: August 22, 2018, 02:07:14 pm »
Highest K rates among all minor leaguers (hi-A and above) since July 10: #1 Framber Valdez (43.2%), #3 Josh James (39.6%), Tyler Ivey (38.3%) and Brandon Bailey (32.1%).

You can compare the scouting report on Bailey from MLB Pipeline to the one here at https://2080baseball.com/reports/brandon-bailey/. A quick and dirty summary from those folks:

"Polished strikethrower, around the plate w/ all pitches. Plus pitchability, has a plan, knows he has to throw junk to speed up the [87-90] fastball."

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #44 on: August 22, 2018, 02:47:43 pm »
23-year old Buies Creek RHP Yohan Ramirez hasn't shown up on any of these lists but if his command ever improves that might change given a FB with "overpowering velocity, regularly t98-99 and sits at 95-96".

https://2080baseball.com/reports/yohan-ramirez/

juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #45 on: August 22, 2018, 04:54:44 pm »
23-year old Buies Creek RHP Yohan Ramirez hasn't shown up on any of these lists but if his command ever improves that might change given a FB with "overpowering velocity, regularly t98-99 and sits at 95-96".

https://2080baseball.com/reports/yohan-ramirez/

Not that long ago the Astros organization would have maybe 1-2 of these guys with high '90s velocity. Now they have ten or so?
And I imagine every club has several. What is driving the velocity? Bigger/stronger? Better mechanics? All of the above? None of the above?

Duman

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #46 on: August 24, 2018, 06:46:17 am »
The Athletic's Jim Bowden ($) ranks the farm systems after the trade deadline.  Astros come in at #7 with a B+.  They fall behind the Padres (A), Braves (A), Blue Jays (A), Rays  (A), White Sox  (A-) & Reds (B+); and just ahead of Twins, Phillies, Tigers & Dodgers (All also ranked with B+)

Top 11 Astros Prospects:
Tucker
Whitley
Y. Alvarez
C. Martin
Bukauskas
J. James
F. Nova
B Bielak
J. Solis
M. Straw
S. Beer

Quote
The Astros’ system is once again loaded with power arms, speed, athleticism and power bats and it’s the reason the Astros are not just built for the short term, but should be legitimate contenders for most of the next decade.
Always ready to go to a game.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #47 on: August 24, 2018, 10:43:40 am »
The Athletic's Jim Bowden ($) ranks the farm systems after the trade deadline.  Astros come in at #7 with a B+.  They fall behind the Padres (A), Braves (A), Blue Jays (A), Rays  (A), White Sox  (A-) & Reds (B+); and just ahead of Twins, Phillies, Tigers & Dodgers (All also ranked with B+)

Top 11 Astros Prospects:
Tucker
Whitley
Y. Alvarez
C. Martin
Bukauskas
J. James
F. Nova
B Bielak
J. Solis
M. Straw
S. Beer

Thanks for posting.

That's really bullish on Bielak. Contrast that with the FG board which has Bielak down in the 30-37 range with Kit Scheetz and company.

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #48 on: August 24, 2018, 10:51:46 am »
I'm sure y'all have been talking about him, but he wasn't on my radar at all and need some info.  Was he a starter at ND, or a reliever?

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #49 on: August 24, 2018, 11:08:05 am »
I'm sure y'all have been talking about him, but he wasn't on my radar at all and need some info.  Was he a starter at ND, or a reliever?

Here's what I wrote in the draft recap:

RHP Brandon Bielak (11th round)--Very much an up-and-down pitcher for the Fighting Irish over the course of his three years there working mostly as a starter. His junior season this past spring was by far the worst as his control issues (which of always been a problem for him) really got out of hand with 41 walks in 73 IP. His numbers in the Cape in the summer of 2016 were actually pretty positive with 29 Ks vs just 7 BBs in 23.1 IP as the closer for the Orleans Firebirds (Kit Scheetz was a teammate on that squad). And the bully may be where he's headed long-term. Scouting report says his FB sits 91-92. Improving that control key to his development. Signed for $150K (2nd highest among Day 3 picks).

And here's what MLB Pipeline more recently had to say regarding his progress since joining the Astros:

Bielak may not have a true plus pitch but he has an effective four-pitch repertoire. His 91-94 mph four-seam fastball plays better than its velocity because its riding life avoids barrels. His changeup often is his best secondary offering and has helped him dominate left-handers at the outset of his pro career. The Astros have helped Bielak clean up his breaking stuff, having him switch to a spike curveball over a traditional one and tightening up his slider. He has thrown a lot more strikes as a pro than he did with the Fighting Irish, giving him a chance to start after many scouts previously projected him as a reliever. He's not especially tall but uses a high arm slot to create downhill plane.

« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 11:12:03 am by Nate Colbert »

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #50 on: August 24, 2018, 11:19:12 am »
Thanks, those are very informative.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #51 on: August 26, 2018, 05:55:56 pm »
30. INF Deury Carrasco (briefly mentioned in GCL thread--currently hitting .381/.383/.482)

Recently promoted to TRC...

Mark Singelais  @MarkSingelais 1h ago
[email protected] manager Jason Bell said before today's game Carrasco is "really good  defensively and has maybe one of the strongest arms in all of  minor-league baseball."


Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #52 on: August 26, 2018, 10:04:51 pm »
Sickels had a recent article discussing his preseason Top 20 Prospects list (which was linked to previously in another thread). In the other C+ prospects section (in which he had previously noted that "most" could slot in the 17-20 range), he had some names which don't show up in other prospect lists with some commentary as regards their 2018 season to date:

Quote
Mike Papierski, C; Hitting just .1983/351/.293 in Low-A, draws a lot of walks but that’s not enough, glove good enough to keep him employed for a while.

Nathan Perry, C; Fine glove, hasn’t hit much yet, .225/.312/.350 in 120 at-bats in rookie ball/NY-P.

Yoanys Quiala, RHP; Suspended for PED use

Lorenzo Quintana, C; Older Cuban, age 29, hitting .247/.308/.489 with 11 homers, 14 walks, 44 strikeouts in 227 at-bats in Double-A

Chuckie Robinson, C; Sharp glove, hitting needs work at .238/.287/.374 in 235 at-bats in High-A.

Leovanny Rodriguez, RHP; Midwest League observers regard him as a significant sleeper, 4.08 ERA in 82 innings with Quad Cities, 93/22 K/BB.

Carlos Sierra, RHP; 4.23 ERA in 38 innings in High-A/Double-A, 39/16 K/BB, relief possibilities if consistency improves.

Alex Winkelman, LHP 3.19 ERA in 73 innings in Double-A, 78/48 K/BB; bullpen option if he can lower the walks.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/8/23/17773100/houston-astros-top-20-prospects-for-2018-mid-season-review

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #53 on: August 26, 2018, 10:54:44 pm »
Roster Resources has a MiLB Top 200 Power Rankings (3rd year they've been doing this) which is "based on 2018 regular season performance with age and level being major factors in how each statistical category is weighted". Astros' minor leaguers on that list that don't show up elsewhere:

  • 67. INF Josh Rojas
  • 106. LHP Ryan Hartman
  • 127. 1B Taylor Jones

https://www.rosterresource.com/milb-power-rankings/

VirtualBob

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #54 on: August 27, 2018, 08:58:53 am »
Roster Resources has a MiLB Top 200 Power Rankings (3rd year they've been doing this) which is "based on 2018 regular season performance with age and level being major factors in how each statistical category is weighted". Astros' minor leaguers on that list that don't show up elsewhere:

  • 67. INF Josh Rojas
  • 106. LHP Ryan Hartman
  • 127. 1B Taylor Jones

https://www.rosterresource.com/milb-power-rankings/
Thanks for posting this.

As a reaction to the piece, though, I am suspicious of pure-stat analyses in MiLB - especially below AA. K rate and B.B. rate are good, but even there a pitcher trying to master a new pitch will suffer by comparisons. I find these lists fascinating but not always helpful in predicting progression up the ladder.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #55 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:39 am »
As a reaction to the piece, though, I am suspicious of pure-stat analyses in MiLB - especially below AA. K rate and B.B. rate are good, but even there a pitcher trying to master a new pitch will suffer by comparisons. I find these lists fascinating but not always helpful in predicting progression up the ladder.

I don't disagree with any of that. But since the players I highlighted are all AA players and are (arguably) having breakthrough seasons, I thought it worth noting anyway.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #56 on: August 29, 2018, 06:34:29 pm »
More bullish than most, an assessment of CF Ronnie Dawson from https://2080baseball.com/reports/ronnie-dawson/. Regarding his defense:

"Doesn't have the straightline speed to be a slam dunk CF at the big league level, but plus routes and reads make him an average defender there. Plays deep to compensate, goes back on the ball better than he closes in on bloops.
Average arm w/ fair line and carry. Not a liability, not a weapon."

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #57 on: August 30, 2018, 08:37:24 pm »
The ones which come with written scouting reports I believe I've already linked to but there's video only available for the following players (some of whom it's a stretch to call "prospects"): Cody Bohanek, Jake Adams, Jake Meyers, Jonathan Arauz, Corey Julks, JJ Matijevic, Michael Papierski, Osvaldo Duarte, Seth Beer, Jeremy Pena, Bryan De La Cruz, Enmanuel Valdez and Jose Hernandez.

https://2080baseball.com/2018-video-prospect-library/

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #58 on: August 30, 2018, 09:30:42 pm »
24. RHP Manny Ramirez (18 year old with 32 K / 10 BB in 26.2 IP in the GCL)

After the 3 scoreless innings for TRC tonight with 7 whiffs, he'll finish the regular season with 55/19 strikeouts to walks in 39 IP with 30 hits allowed.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #59 on: September 02, 2018, 08:43:32 am »
There's some limitations with this (including the fact that BA and Sickels did only partial midseason updates while BP did none at all) but here's the 54 players who have shown up on prospect lists since January...

4 or More Prospect Lists (21)
OF Kyle Tucker              FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels   
RHP Forrest Whitley           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Yordan Alvarez           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
LHP Cionel Perez                   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Corbin Martin           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
SS Freudis Nova              FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP J.B. Bukauskas           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
C Garrett Stubbs                   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Rogelio Armenteros   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Jairo Solis              FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF J.J. Matijevic                   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Seth Beer                      FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Josh James              FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bielak           FG/BA/MP/Sickels
SS Jonathan Arauz           FG/BA/BP/MP
RHP Riley Ferrell                   FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Joe Perez                      FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Dean Deetz              FG/BA/MP/Sickels
LHP Framber Valdez           FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Cristian Javier           FG/BA/MP/Sickels
OF Myles Straw              BA/BP/MP/Sickels

3 Prospect Lists (3)
3B Abraham Toro      FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bailey           FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Tyler Ivey              FG/MP/Sickels

2 Prospect Lists (12)
RHP Jayson Schroeder   FG/MP
SS Jeremy Pena              FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave           FG/BA
OF Alex McKenna              FG/MP
RHP Trent Thornton           MP/Sickels
RHP Peter Solomon           FG/Sickels
OF Ronnie Dawson           BA/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez           BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra           BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado           BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry              BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock                   MP/Sickels

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan           FG
RHP Manny Ramirez           FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte           FG   
RHP Bryan Abreu              FG
RHP Carlos Sanabria           FG
SS Deury Carrasco           FG
RHP Cody Deason      FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz              FG
RHP Enoli Paredes           FG
RHP Johanse Torres           BA
1B Randy Cesar              MP
C Michael Papierski           Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana           Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson           Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala           Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez   Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra                   Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman           Sickels

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--26
LHP--6
C--5
1B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + three "rising prospects" from that update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article