Author Topic: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019  (Read 24680 times)

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #140 on: January 30, 2019, 09:11:11 am »
I didn't realize he could also touch 98 on the FB.
The more I've seen players in the minors and read what is written about them, the less I read.  While Callis seems like a good guy, he's basically a tout from my race track days whose aim isn't to lead me to put money on a prospect, but to get real excited to read his next reviews.  I'll be real happy and surprised if JBB is throwing 98 with a knockout slider. 

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #141 on: January 30, 2019, 09:45:01 am »
The more I've seen players in the minors and read what is written about them, the less I read.  While Callis seems like a good guy, he's basically a tout from my race track days whose aim isn't to lead me to put money on a prospect, but to get real excited to read his next reviews.  I'll be real happy and surprised if JBB is throwing 98 with a knockout slider.

If he's working out of the bullpen you'll see it.  If he's starting you'll see the high end slider paired with a 93-95 fastball.
Goin' for a bus ride.

BizidyDizidy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #142 on: January 30, 2019, 11:54:25 am »
Is it kind of odd that despite Tucker being the 9th ranked prospect, he doesn't show up (even as an also ran) on any of the best tools list?
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #143 on: January 30, 2019, 04:25:01 pm »
And now BP with their list:

  • 7. Whitley
  • 14. Tucker
  • 46. Josh James
  • 49. Alvarez
  • 80. JBB

And now BA:

5. Forrest Whitley
12. Kyle Tucker
34. Yordan Alvarez
77. Josh James
78. Corbin Martin

Notes on the BA rankings:
*Nine organizations account for nearly 60% of the list: Padres (9), Rays (9), Braves [8], Blue Jays (7), Astros (5), White Sox (5), Cardinals (5), Reds (5), Dodgers (5).
*Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs all had zero prospects on the list.
*JBB one of the "last, last cuts" according to one of the BA writers.

MLB Pipeline with their preseason Top 100 rankings:

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
8. Kyle Tucker, OF
44. Yordan Alvarez, OF
62. Josh James, RHP
81. Corbin Martin, RHP
97. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP

Notes on the MLBP rankings:
*Houston 3rd among all organizations with the most prospects on the list behind the Padres (10) and Braves [8] and tied with the ChiSox (6) and Rays (6).
*In terms of MLBP's prospect point rankings (which give more weight to the best prospects), the Astros ranked 5th while other prospective playoff teams ranked far behind (Dodgers 11th, Cardinals 17th, Indians 19th, Brewers 23rd, Yankees 24th, Red Sox 28th and Cubs 29th) suggesting Houston has more ammunition to make trade deadline deals.
*The Astros were 2nd only to the Braves with 4 RHPs on the list.

And Keith Law with his preseason Top 100 rankings:

4. Whitley
17. Tucker
48. Martin
67. JBB
70. James

Notes on Law's rankings:
*Yordan Alvarez didn't even make his "near miss" list.

moriartp

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #144 on: January 30, 2019, 04:54:33 pm »
I saw he said Alvarez has an “overrated bat” in his chat earlier today.

Heck of a ranking for Martin.

juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #145 on: January 31, 2019, 07:57:23 am »
Scratching off Riley Ferrell...

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--25
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)

Solis has also had TJ.  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-jairo-solis-will-miss-entire-2019-season/

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #146 on: January 31, 2019, 08:11:36 am »
Solis has also had TJ.  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-jairo-solis-will-miss-entire-2019-season/

Don't read Rotowire or cbssports.com. Read me. You'll get your news two months sooner...

JJ Cooper in today's BA chat says Jairo Solis recently had Tommy John so adding him to the list.


Mr. Happy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #147 on: January 31, 2019, 03:59:39 pm »
Don't read Rotowire or cbssports.com. Read me. You'll get your news two months sooner...

Indeed. Fucketh not with Nate. He rocks.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #148 on: February 02, 2019, 11:02:36 pm »
Eric Jagers @ericjagers 4 hours ago
Today we bid farewell to @BBailey_19 after an awesome two weeks of prep before Spring Training. How bout these @TrackManBB numbers from his live session: AVG FB spin rate- 2684 @ 93.4 mph (28.7 Bauer Units). Good for ~4.5 standard deviations above league average. Yep, that'll do.


As a point of reference, Justin Verlander's spin rate on his 4-seamer in 2018 was 2621 rpms while Ryan Pressly's spin rate last year on his 4-seamers was 2565 rpms (9th in MLB). The highest spin rate on 4-seamers in all of MLB was David Robertson at 2661 and Bailey exceeded that in his training session at Driveline. Verlander and Pressly are harder throwers than Bailey (by a couple of mph) while Robertson is almost exactly the same. FWIW, Robertson and Bailey are about the same height (5'11" and 5'10"). None of this of course tells us anything about location nor the effectiveness of pitches beyond the 4-seamer.


(For those curious, Bauer units is simply spin rate divided by velo.)

juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #149 on: February 03, 2019, 08:23:15 am »
Eric Jagers @ericjagers 4 hours ago
Today we bid farewell to @BBailey_19 after an awesome two weeks of prep before Spring Training. How bout these @TrackManBB numbers from his live session: AVG FB spin rate- 2684 @ 93.4 mph (28.7 Bauer Units). Good for ~4.5 standard deviations above league average. Yep, that'll do.


As a point of reference, Justin Verlander's spin rate on his 4-seamer in 2018 was 2621 rpms while Ryan Pressly's spin rate last year on his 4-seamers was 2565 rpms (9th in MLB). The highest spin rate on 4-seamers in all of MLB was David Robertson at 2661 and Bailey exceeded that in his training session at Driveline. Verlander and Pressly are harder throwers than Bailey (by a couple of mph) while Robertson is almost exactly the same. FWIW, Robertson and Bailey are about the same height (5'11" and 5'10"). None of this of course tells us anything about location nor the effectiveness of pitches beyond the 4-seamer.


(For those curious, Bauer units is simply spin rate divided by velo.)

Good stuff Nate. Now it becomes a little more clear why Luhnow & Co. were willing to give up such a good prospect in Laureano.

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #150 on: February 03, 2019, 11:25:24 am »
Thankfully, Nate defined “Bauer units.”  Is it supposed to a good quality, as in more Bauer units (BUs) are better than less BUs?  My immediate reaction is that if it’s named after Bauer, the answer is no, but really, “who the hell knows.”  With the same spin, increasing velocity has to be good (my assumption), but it decreases the BU.


mrpink

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #151 on: February 03, 2019, 11:57:33 am »
Thankfully, Nate defined “Bauer units.”  Is it supposed to a good quality, as in more Bauer units (BUs) are better than less BUs?  My immediate reaction is that if it’s named after Bauer, the answer is no, but really, “who the hell knows.”  With the same spin, increasing velocity has to be good (my assumption), but it decreases the BU.
My limited understanding is yes, a greater BU is better because spin rates naturally increase with velocity. The BU just normalizes it.

Anyone with a greater understanding please feel free to correct me here.

moriartp

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #152 on: February 03, 2019, 12:05:00 pm »
Thankfully, Nate defined “Bauer units.”  Is it supposed to a good quality, as in more Bauer units (BUs) are better than less BUs?  My immediate reaction is that if it’s named after Bauer, the answer is no, but really, “who the hell knows.”  With the same spin, increasing velocity has to be good (my assumption), but it decreases the BU.

I had the same thought. These articles at Driveline explain the velo–spin relationship pretty well. They also help explain a bit of why Giles’ fastball seemed so hittable.

austro

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #153 on: February 03, 2019, 12:14:30 pm »
I had the same thought. These articles at Driveline explain the velo–spin relationship pretty well. They also help explain a bit of why Giles’ fastball seemed so hittable.

It didn't just seem hittable.
I remember all the good times me 'n Miller enjoyed
Up and down the M1 in some luminous yo-yo toy
But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
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juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #154 on: February 03, 2019, 12:18:40 pm »
It didn't just seem hittable.

So did Luhnow not trust his own stuff?

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #155 on: February 03, 2019, 12:37:17 pm »
Thanks for the articles. I’ve always know that not all fastballs are equal, but needed learning on the spin rate phenomena and it’s effect on batters. I think there’s an interesting discussion on whether the high spin rate is useful in itself, or only useful in a world of average lower spin rates.  Basically like the unusual arm angle advantage: it’s good to be an outlier as people don’t handle you well.

The most convincing data to me is the velo of the batted ball as I view preventing hard contact as a primary goal of a pitcher. I see that spin rates correlate well with increasing swing and miss (a surefire way to prevent contact), but I’d also like to see if there’s a correlation with spin rate and lower velo off the bat as well. Probably is, but I’m not sure. Similarly, I’d like to see BUs correlated with velo off the bat as well. 

Basically, to MP’s point, until BUs are correlated with effective pitching, I’m not sure what is gained in by normalizing those two measurements.

moriartp

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #156 on: February 03, 2019, 01:00:02 pm »
Quick 2018 BU calculations for Astros pitchers, including some recent departures and new arrivals. These are for 4-seamers only, so don't read into the numbers for guys like McCullers/Harris/Keuchel/Miley who rely on other fastballs:

27.56 Verlander
27.26 Harris
26.78 Pressly
25.58 Deetz
25.24 Osuna
25.13 McCullers
25.02 McHugh
24.98 Guduan
24.87 Peacock
24.81 Devenski
24.73 Martes (2017)
24.65 Cole
24.50 Valdez
24.38 Giles
24.38 Smith
24.33 James
24.31 Miley
24.12 Keuchel
23.35 Morton
23.12 Perez
21.08 Rondon

Small sample size warnings also apply for many of these guys, obviously. I wish we had MiLB data to help supplement these numbers. I'd sure be interested to see spin data for Whitley, Bukauskas, Martin, etc.

Also keep in mind almost all these guys are above league average—the Astros have been on the spin train for a long time.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2019, 01:05:05 pm by moriartp »

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #157 on: February 03, 2019, 01:30:40 pm »
I wish we had MiLB data to help supplement these numbers. I'd sure be interested to see spin data for Whitley, Bukauskas, Martin, etc.

As FG rolls out their updated team prospect lists, they're publishing this data. You can see that info here for the already-released teams & players. The Astros' info should be out in a couple of weeks.

Very, very cool shit.


moriartp

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #158 on: February 03, 2019, 01:36:16 pm »
As FG rolls out their updated team prospect lists, they're publishing this data. You can see that info here for the already-released teams & players. The Astros' info should be out in a couple of weeks.

Very, very cool shit.

Hot damn! Thanks Nate.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #159 on: February 06, 2019, 11:18:18 pm »
And Keith Law with his preseason Top 100 rankings:

4. Whitley
17. Tucker
48. Martin
67. JBB
70. James

Notes on Law's rankings:
*Yordan Alvarez didn't even make his "near miss" list.

Given he put 5 of their guys in his Top 100 list, it's a bit odd that Law chose to put the Astros at #12 in his recent rankings of farm systems. They were #13 on his list last year.

Padres, Rays, Braves and Twins were 1-4 in his rankings.

Angels were at #7, Rangers at #20, Mariners at #22 and the A's at #27.

Yankees were at #19 and Red Sox at #24.