Author Topic: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019  (Read 18483 times)

Nate Colbert

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Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« on: June 22, 2018, 08:21:44 pm »
MLB.com did their midseason re-shuffle of their Top 100 Prospect rankings. Tucker moves up from #17 in their preseason rankings to #10 currently, Whitley drops slightly from #9 to #11 and Yordan Alvarez moves on to the list at #54. JB Bukauskas had been on the list at #76 but dropped off. Exes include Franklin Perez (#33) and Albert Abreu  (#65).

They wrote this on Alvarez:

"Alvarez also has some surprising athleticism for someone his size. He'll flash above-average speed once he gets going, though it plays more as average and he'll likely lose a step as he matures physically. He has shown more aptitude in left field than at first base and gets the job done on the outfield corner. His arm earns fringy to average grades, and the Astros plan on giving him some time in right field."

They have no clue either as to what's going w/Bukauskas noting his "undisclosed injury" in an accompanying article.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects


And in case you missed the BA midseason rankings:

BA released an updated Top 100 Prospects list today. Whitley, Tucker, and Alvarez all stayed in roughly the same place, but Corbin Martin vaulted from unranked up to #85.

link
« Last Edit: June 22, 2018, 08:34:44 pm by Nate Colbert »

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2018, 09:55:16 pm »
And Fangraphs revised their prospect rankings last week: Whitley at #7, Tucker at #10 and Alvarez #32.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 11:28:36 am »
Another perspective from FG on the org's top 10 prospects.

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/houston-astros-top-10-prospects-updated/


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2018, 11:31:12 am »
BA has their updated 100 out:

Forrest Whitley is No. 7
Kyle Tucker is No. 8
Yordan Alvarez is No. 36
Corbin Martin is No. 83

Subscriber article here:  https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-top-100-prospects/
You may ask yourself, "How do I work this?"

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2018, 11:13:08 am »
BA has a midseason update to their Astros Top 10 Prospects list:

1. Whitley
2. Tucker
3. Alvarez
4. Corbin Martin
5. Solis
6. Nova
7. Hector Perez
8. Bukauskas
9. Beer
10. Cionel Perez

The preseason list (obvious done before the G. Cole trade) had:

1. Whitley
2. Tucker
3. Alvarez
4. Bukauskas
5. Nova
6. Solis
7. Hector Perez
8. Alcala
9. Moran
10. Paulino

Also mentioned the following as rising prospects:
  • Stubbs
  • Bielak--"heavy low- to mid-90s fastball and a solid-average curveball and changeup"
  • James
  • Celestino
  • Straw
  • Johanse Torres--way too old for DSL but "95-99 FB and a potentially plus slider are worth paying attention to"


juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2018, 01:34:09 pm »
Martin rapidly ascending.

Snuffy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2018, 07:43:52 pm »
BA has a midseason update to their Astros Top 10 Prospects list:

1. Whitley
2. Tucker
3. Alvarez
4. Corbin Martin
5. Solis
6. Nova
7. Hector Perez
8. Bukauskas
9. Beer
10. Cionel Perez

TY for the update.
Is it a surprise for Beer to be #9?  Apparently he is not having a problem with wooden bats.
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Knoxbanedoodle

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2018, 07:45:47 pm »
TY for the update.
Is it a surprise for Beer to be #9?  Apparently he is not having a problem with wooden bats.

It is. Beer usually results in a #1.

Snuffy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2018, 07:48:22 pm »
It is. Beer usually results in a #1.

Hopefully, no hangover with the Beer draft.....
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2018, 12:18:16 pm »
Here's the preseason MLB Pipeline Top 30 Astros Prospects list:

1. RHP Forrest Whitley
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. RHP J.B. Bukauskas
4. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez
5. SS Freudis Nova
6. LHP Cionel Perez
7. RHP Jorge Alcala
8. RHP David Paulino
9. 3B J.D. Davis
10. RHP Corbin Martin
11. RHP Hector Perez
12. RHP Rogelio Armenteros
13. RHP Jairo Solis
14. 3B Joe Perez
15. OF Ronnie Dawson
16. LHP Framber Valdez
17. OF Drew Ferguson
18. RHP Dean Deetz
19. RHP Cristian Javier
20. RHP Riley Ferrell
21. OF Myles Straw
22. SS Jonathan Arauz
23. OF Gilberto Celestino
24. C Garrett Stubbs
25. OF J.J. Matijevic
26. RHP Jandel Gustave
27. C Chuckie Robinson
28. LHP Brett Adcock
29. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez
30. RHP Brandon Bailey

Here's their recently-updated Top 30 list:

1. RHP Forrest Whitley
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (#4)
4. LHP Cionel Perez (#6)
5. RHP Corbin Martin (#10)
6. RHP Josh James (NR)
7. OF/1B Seth Beer
8. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (#3)
9. SS Freudis Nova (#5)
10. RHP Jorge Alcala (#7)
11. RHP Hector Perez
12. RHP Jairo Solis (#13)
13. LHP Framber Valdez (#16)
14. RHP Rogelio Armenteros (#12)
15. OF Gilberto Celestino (#23)
16. RHP Cristian Javier (#19)
17. OF Myles Straw (#21)
18. C Garrett Stubbs (#24)
19. RHP Jayson Schroeder
20. RHP Riley Ferrell
21. RHP Dean Deetz (#18)
22. RHP Brandon Bielak (NR)
23. OF J.J. Matijevic (#25)
24. 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez (#29)
25. RHP David Paulino (#8)
26. 3B Joe Perez (#14)
27. SS Jonathan Arauz (#22)
28. RHP Trent Thornton (NR)
29. RHP Tyler Ivey (NR)
30. 3B/1B Randy Cesar (NR)

Bold=new to list

Dropped off list: 3B J.D. Davis (#9), OF Ronnie Dawson (#15), OF Drew Ferguson (#17), RHP Jandel Gustave (#26), C Chuckie Robinson (#27), LHP Brett Adcock (#28), RHP Brandon Bailey (#30)
« Last Edit: July 26, 2018, 01:01:55 pm by Nate Colbert »

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2018, 01:29:30 pm »
Not rated to 6th in the Astros system is pretty nice.

chuck

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2018, 01:31:28 pm »
With Tucker promoted shouldn't Beer be among the top six pack?
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2018, 01:40:18 pm »
Amazing to me how Martes has fallen completely off the radar
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juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2018, 01:52:12 pm »
Amazing to me how Martes has fallen completely off the radar

I don't think he's pitched all season?

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2018, 01:52:24 pm »
Amazing to me how Martes has fallen completely off the radar

Not eligible for these lists--he blew through his rookie status last season when he tossed 54 innings.

"To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period."

BizidyDizidy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2018, 01:55:23 pm »
Got it, thanks guys
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2018, 01:57:29 pm »
I don't think he's pitched all season?

Made 4 starts back in April for the Grizz before going to the DL.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2018, 10:41:54 am »
And now an even more recently updated Top 30 list minus a couple of players now working in the Twins' organization:

1. RHP Forrest Whitley
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (#4)
4. LHP Cionel Perez (#6)
5. RHP Corbin Martin (#10)
6. RHP Josh James (NR)
7. OF/1B Seth Beer
8. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (#3)
9. SS Freudis Nova (#5)
10. RHP Hector Perez
11. RHP Jairo Solis (#13)
12. LHP Framber Valdez (#16)
13. RHP Rogelio Armenteros (#12)
14. RHP Cristian Javier (#19)
15. OF Myles Straw (#21)
16. C Garrett Stubbs (#24)
17. RHP Jayson Schroeder
18. RHP Riley Ferrell
19. RHP Dean Deetz (#18)
20. RHP Brandon Bielak (NR)
21. OF J.J. Matijevic (#25)
22. 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez (#29)
23. RHP David Paulino (#8)
24. 3B Joe Perez (#14)
25. SS Jonathan Arauz (#22)
26. RHP Trent Thornton (NR)
27. RHP Tyler Ivey (NR)
28. 3B/1B Randy Cesar (NR)
29. LHP Brett Adcock (#28)
30. RHP Brandon Bailey

Bold=new to list

Dropped off list or traded away: RHP Jorge Alcala (#7), 3B J.D. Davis (#9), OF Ronnie Dawson (#15), OF Drew Ferguson (#17), OF Gilberto Celestino (#23), RHP Jandel Gustave (#26), C Chuckie Robinson (#27)

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2018, 06:31:14 pm »
A new day, a new trade and an updated Top 30 Prospect list from MLB Pipeline:

1. RHP Forrest Whitley
2. OF Kyle Tucker
3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez (#4)
4. LHP Cionel Perez (#6)
5. RHP Corbin Martin (#10)
6. RHP Josh James (NR)
7. OF/1B Seth Beer
8. RHP J.B. Bukauskas (#3)
9. SS Freudis Nova (#5)
10. RHP Jairo Solis (#13)
11. LHP Framber Valdez (#16)
12. RHP Rogelio Armenteros (#12)
13. RHP Cristian Javier (#19)
14. OF Myles Straw (#21)
15. C Garrett Stubbs (#24)
16. RHP Jayson Schroeder
17. RHP Riley Ferrell
18. RHP Dean Deetz (#18)
19. RHP Brandon Bielak (NR)
20. OF J.J. Matijevic (#25)
21. 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez (#29)
22. 3B Joe Perez (#14)
23. SS Jonathan Arauz (#22)
24. RHP Trent Thornton (NR)
25. RHP Tyler Ivey (NR)
26. 3B/1B Randy Cesar (NR)
27. LHP Brett Adcock (#28)
28. RHP Brandon Bailey (#30)
29. SS Jeremy Pena
30. OF Alex McKenna

Bold=new to list

Traded away: RHP Jorge Alcala (#7),  RHP David Paulino (#8), RHP Hector Perez (#10), OF Gilberto Celestino (#23)

Dropped off list: 3B J.D. Davis (#9), OF Ronnie Dawson (#15), OF Drew Ferguson (#17), RHP Jandel Gustave (#26), C Chuckie Robinson (#27)

juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2018, 06:52:34 pm »
Rapidly depleting the category of Top 10 prospects that are RH Latin Pitchers that can touch 100.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2018, 08:40:20 pm »
And Fangraphs revised their prospect rankings last week: Whitley at #7, Tucker at #10 and Alvarez #32.

That was of course from their Top 100 list. FG also has their ranking of top prospects within the organization with 36* names on the list. Some names on their list that don't show up currently on BA and MLB Pipeline:

24. RHP Manny Ramirez (18 year old with 32 K / 10 BB in 26.2 IP in the GCL)
26. UTIL Osvaldo Duarte
28. RHP Carlos Sanabria (mentioned in the QC thread--he's now with BC)
30. INF Deury Carrasco (briefly mentioned in GCL thread--currently hitting .381/.383/.482)
31. RHP Peter Solomon
32. RHP Cody Deason (this year's 5th rounder)
35. LHP Kit Scheetz (yes, his handedness is wrong in the column to the left but it's correct on the right)
36. RHP Enoli Paredes (mentioned in the QC thread and like Sanabria is now at BC)


*not 37 as shown as they forgot to do a re-numbering when Hector Perez (at #5) was removed from the list.

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018updated&type=0&pos=all&team=hou

VirtualBob

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2018, 08:44:34 pm »
I love it that Seth Beer is advancing so quickly AND showing the versatility and athleticism to play in the outfield.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2018, 02:35:05 pm »
FG Prospect Chat https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-chat-8-2-18/

Frank
3:10 Give me a current under the radar minor league arm who has a high risk/high reward profile as either a SP or fallback as an elite RP
Eric A Longenhagen
3:15 Hans Crouse, Lenny Torres, Tyler Ivey if the fastball ticks up, Francisco Morales

Snuffy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2018, 05:22:14 pm »
I love it that Seth Beer is advancing so quickly AND showing the versatility and athleticism to play in the outfield.
Second that!

PS: I remember seeing some of his highlights that included him throwing our at least one runner @ 3B & Home from RF.

PSS: Here ya go.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXf493kQyzw&ab_channel=ACCDigitalNetwork
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 05:42:26 pm by Snuffy »
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2018, 09:53:53 pm »
Second that!

PS: I remember seeing some of his highlights that included him throwing our at least one runner @ 3B & Home from RF.

PSS: Here ya go.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXf493kQyzw&ab_channel=ACCDigitalNetwork

I think Bob's comment was of the sarcastic variety as regards Longenhagen and McDaniel ranking Beer rather low at #15 and listing his position as DH.


VirtualBob

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2018, 10:33:58 pm »
I think Bob's comment was of the sarcastic variety as regards Longenhagen and McDaniel ranking Beer rather low at #15 and listing his position as DH.
Yes and enough people picked up on that positional assessment to worry me a bit. I have seen A.J. Reed play, and one of him is enough in any organization. He reminds me of a larger version of Duck Stuart (whom I have also seen live).
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2018, 10:41:01 pm »
Yes and enough people picked up on that positional assessment to worry me a bit. I have seen A.J. Reed play, and one of him is enough in any organization. He reminds me of a larger version of Duck Stuart (whom I have also seen live).

Of course, Dr. Strangeglove is far and away the most famous nickname for Stuart but here are some others:

  • Stonefingers
  • The Man with the Iron Glove
  • Boston Strangler

Snuffy

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #27 on: August 02, 2018, 10:57:15 pm »
I think Bob's comment was of the sarcastic variety as regards Longenhagen and McDaniel ranking Beer rather low at #15 and listing his position as DH.

Tks, Nate!  Missed the sarcasm.
Great thread!  Thanks for the updates.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2018, 11:37:34 pm »
Interesting. Despite recent trades of young talent, MLB Pipeline lists Houston as having the 9th-best farm system after not having them ranked in their preseason list.

Obviously the stepping forward this year of a number of the young pitchers has not gone unnoticed.

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-farm-systems-in-mlb/c-288576958?tid=151437456

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2018, 11:56:07 am »
Of course, Dr. Strangeglove is far and away the most famous nickname for Stuart but here are some others:

  • Stonefingers
  • The Man with the Iron Glove
  • Boston Strangler

Clank is the one that I remember.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #30 on: August 08, 2018, 01:06:02 pm »
Interesting. Despite recent trades of young talent, MLB Pipeline lists Houston as having the 9th-best farm system after not having them ranked in their preseason list.

Obviously the stepping forward this year of a number of the young pitchers has not gone unnoticed.

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-farm-systems-in-mlb/c-288576958?tid=151437456

And in their recent re-ranking, BA puts the Astros at #8.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-mlb-organizational-talent-rankings/

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #31 on: August 10, 2018, 02:17:16 pm »
Highest K rates among all minor leaguers (hi-A and above) since July 10: #1 Framber Valdez (43.2%), #3 Josh James (39.6%), Tyler Ivey (38.3%) and Brandon Bailey (32.1%). Why the high K rates for Astros minor leaguers?

Quote
...[it's due to] the organizational philosophy on pitch mixes. Ivey, James, and Valdez all rely heavily on a fastball-curveball combination, nor is that unique throughout the org. According to [Eric] Longenhagen, basically every pitcher in the system features some combination of a high-spin fastball (thrown at the top of the zone) and high-spin breaking ball (thrown just below the zone).

Also Abraham Toro shows up in a table of "The Matt Carpenters of AA"--the 10 hitters with the best combo of high contact/low groundball rates. At 21, he was the youngest player on the list (the other 9 ranged in age from (23-27).

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-118/

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #32 on: August 15, 2018, 04:02:16 pm »
Well the prospect gurus are finally picking up on Bryan Abreu. FG added him at #28 to their prospect board with Longenhagen saying:

Quote
...has generated varying reports throughout the year, at times 92-94 with a 50 breaking ball and 40 control (which is barely a prospect) and others when he’s been up to 97, sitting 94-95 with big vertical action on one of two his breaking balls.

I think the fastball (which is pretty straight) plays better out of the bullpen and I’m skeptical of Abreu’s short-term walk rate improvement because I’ve still got scouts questioning his command and it’s been an issue for Abreu in the past.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-8-15-18/

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #33 on: August 17, 2018, 05:54:56 pm »
BA out with their annual survey of best tools in each of the full season leagues. Among the Astros noted:

Best hitting prospect: K. Tucker (PCL)
Best baserunner: Myles Straw (TL)
Fastest baserunner: Myles Straw (TL)
Best pitching prospect: Forrest Whitley (TL)
Best changeup: Rogelio Armenteros (PCL), Forrest Whitley (TL)
Best control: Trent Thornton (PCL)
Best defensive 1B: Taylor Jones (TL)
Best defensive 3B: Abraham Toro (CL)
Best outfield arm: Myles Straw (TL)
Most exciting player: K. Tucker (PCL)
Best manager prospect: Rodney Linares (PCL), Omar Lopez (TL), Morgan Ensberg (CL)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2018, 06:42:30 am »
BA out with their annual survey of best tools in each of the full season leagues. Among the Astros noted: ...
Best manager prospect: Rodney Linares (PCL), Omar Lopez (TL), Morgan Ensberg (CL)

I thought this part in particular was pretty amazing -- to have the top managerial prospect in three different leagues?
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juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2018, 01:15:33 pm »
BA out with their annual survey of best tools in each of the full season leagues. Among the Astros noted:

Best hitting prospect: K. Tucker (PCL)
Best baserunner: Myles Straw (TL)
Fastest baserunner: Myles Straw (TL)
Best pitching prospect: Forrest Whitley (TL)
Best changeup: Rogelio Armenteros (PCL), Forrest Whitley (TL)
Best control: Trent Thornton (PCL)
Best defensive 1B: Taylor Jones (TL)
Best defensive 3B: Abraham Toro (CL)
Best outfield arm: Myles Straw (TL)
Most exciting player: K. Tucker (PCL)
Best manager prospect: Rodney Linares (PCL), Omar Lopez (TL), Morgan Ensberg (CL)

I just listened to Luhnow's comments pre-game yesterday. He thinks James has the best "stuff" in the system. Touches 100 on the FB. Control can be an issue. As previously reported they had McCann catch him recently.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2018, 01:25:39 pm »
I could have sworn I read something recently about him, where it was more mid 90s.  I wonder if the 100 is just hype, or legit.

juliogotay

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #37 on: August 20, 2018, 02:07:57 pm »
I could have sworn I read something recently about him, where it was more mid 90s.  I wonder if the 100 is just hype, or legit.

I'm sure if he hit 100 once then he "throws 100". I don't know of anyone who did that consistently. But Luhnow has been hyping him all summer since his weight loss.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2018, 02:09:33 pm by juliogotay »

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Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2018, 03:14:52 pm »
NB A. J. Reed
E come vivo? Vivo.

VirtualBob

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2018, 10:00:10 am »
NB A. J. Reed
I think he got some votes for "best buffet table manner".
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2018, 05:14:26 pm »
Tweet from MLB Pipeline re Framber:

The 24-year-old Dominican is one of just 5 LHPs on all 30 team Top 30 lists with ≥ 60 FB, ≥ 60 CB & ≥ 50 CH.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2018, 11:26:41 pm »
Like with the recent updated FG board, just noting names that haven't shown up on any other lists. This is from the BP preseason Astros prospect list for players in the 11-20 range:

OF Carlos Machado--Machado is an excellent contact hitter with a direct bat path and advanced feel to hit and plate discipline for his youth. He routinely finds himself in hitter’s counts and rips liners gap-to-gap when pitches are in the zone. There is some power here with a projectable body, but his current approach does not suggest a major power spike. As a result, Machado fulfills the tweener risk profile, since it’s a corner outfield defensive future. An average athlete, Machado’s bat and plate discipline will keep him climbing up the ladder, but he will likely need to find more power (or hit at an elite level) to carve out a regular role at the big league level. —John Eshleman

Linked to previously but if you haven't seen it: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36096/houston-astros-top-10-prospects-forrest-whitley-kyle-tucker/


Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #42 on: August 22, 2018, 01:30:48 pm »
Well the prospect gurus are finally picking up on Bryan Abreu. FG added him at #28 to their prospect board with Longenhagen saying:

"...has generated varying reports throughout the year, at times 92-94 with a 50 breaking ball and 40 control (which is barely a prospect) and others when he’s been up to 97, sitting 94-95 with big vertical action on one of two his breaking balls. I think the fastball (which is pretty straight) plays better out of the bullpen and I’m skeptical of Abreu’s short-term walk rate improvement because I’ve still got scouts questioning his command and it’s been an issue for Abreu in the past."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-8-15-18/

Some video on Abreu from https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/bryan-abreu/

In the vid it says 92-94 on the FB, topping out at 95. It should be noted however that the filming is from a V-Cats game over two months ago and was Abreu's first outing of the year. That might account for the "varying reports" noted by Longenhagen, with less flashy numbers when he first came out of EST and he's throwing harder as the season has progressed.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #43 on: August 22, 2018, 02:07:14 pm »
Highest K rates among all minor leaguers (hi-A and above) since July 10: #1 Framber Valdez (43.2%), #3 Josh James (39.6%), Tyler Ivey (38.3%) and Brandon Bailey (32.1%).

You can compare the scouting report on Bailey from MLB Pipeline to the one here at https://2080baseball.com/reports/brandon-bailey/. A quick and dirty summary from those folks:

"Polished strikethrower, around the plate w/ all pitches. Plus pitchability, has a plan, knows he has to throw junk to speed up the [87-90] fastball."

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #44 on: August 22, 2018, 02:47:43 pm »
23-year old Buies Creek RHP Yohan Ramirez hasn't shown up on any of these lists but if his command ever improves that might change given a FB with "overpowering velocity, regularly t98-99 and sits at 95-96".

https://2080baseball.com/reports/yohan-ramirez/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #45 on: August 22, 2018, 04:54:44 pm »
23-year old Buies Creek RHP Yohan Ramirez hasn't shown up on any of these lists but if his command ever improves that might change given a FB with "overpowering velocity, regularly t98-99 and sits at 95-96".

https://2080baseball.com/reports/yohan-ramirez/

Not that long ago the Astros organization would have maybe 1-2 of these guys with high '90s velocity. Now they have ten or so?
And I imagine every club has several. What is driving the velocity? Bigger/stronger? Better mechanics? All of the above? None of the above?

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #46 on: August 24, 2018, 06:46:17 am »
The Athletic's Jim Bowden ($) ranks the farm systems after the trade deadline.  Astros come in at #7 with a B+.  They fall behind the Padres (A), Braves (A), Blue Jays (A), Rays  (A), White Sox  (A-) & Reds (B+); and just ahead of Twins, Phillies, Tigers & Dodgers (All also ranked with B+)

Top 11 Astros Prospects:
Tucker
Whitley
Y. Alvarez
C. Martin
Bukauskas
J. James
F. Nova
B Bielak
J. Solis
M. Straw
S. Beer

Quote
The Astros’ system is once again loaded with power arms, speed, athleticism and power bats and it’s the reason the Astros are not just built for the short term, but should be legitimate contenders for most of the next decade.
Always ready to go to a game.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #47 on: August 24, 2018, 10:43:40 am »
The Athletic's Jim Bowden ($) ranks the farm systems after the trade deadline.  Astros come in at #7 with a B+.  They fall behind the Padres (A), Braves (A), Blue Jays (A), Rays  (A), White Sox  (A-) & Reds (B+); and just ahead of Twins, Phillies, Tigers & Dodgers (All also ranked with B+)

Top 11 Astros Prospects:
Tucker
Whitley
Y. Alvarez
C. Martin
Bukauskas
J. James
F. Nova
B Bielak
J. Solis
M. Straw
S. Beer

Thanks for posting.

That's really bullish on Bielak. Contrast that with the FG board which has Bielak down in the 30-37 range with Kit Scheetz and company.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #48 on: August 24, 2018, 10:51:46 am »
I'm sure y'all have been talking about him, but he wasn't on my radar at all and need some info.  Was he a starter at ND, or a reliever?

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #49 on: August 24, 2018, 11:08:05 am »
I'm sure y'all have been talking about him, but he wasn't on my radar at all and need some info.  Was he a starter at ND, or a reliever?

Here's what I wrote in the draft recap:

RHP Brandon Bielak (11th round)--Very much an up-and-down pitcher for the Fighting Irish over the course of his three years there working mostly as a starter. His junior season this past spring was by far the worst as his control issues (which of always been a problem for him) really got out of hand with 41 walks in 73 IP. His numbers in the Cape in the summer of 2016 were actually pretty positive with 29 Ks vs just 7 BBs in 23.1 IP as the closer for the Orleans Firebirds (Kit Scheetz was a teammate on that squad). And the bully may be where he's headed long-term. Scouting report says his FB sits 91-92. Improving that control key to his development. Signed for $150K (2nd highest among Day 3 picks).

And here's what MLB Pipeline more recently had to say regarding his progress since joining the Astros:

Bielak may not have a true plus pitch but he has an effective four-pitch repertoire. His 91-94 mph four-seam fastball plays better than its velocity because its riding life avoids barrels. His changeup often is his best secondary offering and has helped him dominate left-handers at the outset of his pro career. The Astros have helped Bielak clean up his breaking stuff, having him switch to a spike curveball over a traditional one and tightening up his slider. He has thrown a lot more strikes as a pro than he did with the Fighting Irish, giving him a chance to start after many scouts previously projected him as a reliever. He's not especially tall but uses a high arm slot to create downhill plane.

« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 11:12:03 am by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #50 on: August 24, 2018, 11:19:12 am »
Thanks, those are very informative.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #51 on: August 26, 2018, 05:55:56 pm »
30. INF Deury Carrasco (briefly mentioned in GCL thread--currently hitting .381/.383/.482)

Recently promoted to TRC...

Mark Singelais  @MarkSingelais 1h ago
[email protected] manager Jason Bell said before today's game Carrasco is "really good  defensively and has maybe one of the strongest arms in all of  minor-league baseball."


Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #52 on: August 26, 2018, 10:04:51 pm »
Sickels had a recent article discussing his preseason Top 20 Prospects list (which was linked to previously in another thread). In the other C+ prospects section (in which he had previously noted that "most" could slot in the 17-20 range), he had some names which don't show up in other prospect lists with some commentary as regards their 2018 season to date:

Quote
Mike Papierski, C; Hitting just .1983/351/.293 in Low-A, draws a lot of walks but that’s not enough, glove good enough to keep him employed for a while.

Nathan Perry, C; Fine glove, hasn’t hit much yet, .225/.312/.350 in 120 at-bats in rookie ball/NY-P.

Yoanys Quiala, RHP; Suspended for PED use

Lorenzo Quintana, C; Older Cuban, age 29, hitting .247/.308/.489 with 11 homers, 14 walks, 44 strikeouts in 227 at-bats in Double-A

Chuckie Robinson, C; Sharp glove, hitting needs work at .238/.287/.374 in 235 at-bats in High-A.

Leovanny Rodriguez, RHP; Midwest League observers regard him as a significant sleeper, 4.08 ERA in 82 innings with Quad Cities, 93/22 K/BB.

Carlos Sierra, RHP; 4.23 ERA in 38 innings in High-A/Double-A, 39/16 K/BB, relief possibilities if consistency improves.

Alex Winkelman, LHP 3.19 ERA in 73 innings in Double-A, 78/48 K/BB; bullpen option if he can lower the walks.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/8/23/17773100/houston-astros-top-20-prospects-for-2018-mid-season-review

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #53 on: August 26, 2018, 10:54:44 pm »
Roster Resources has a MiLB Top 200 Power Rankings (3rd year they've been doing this) which is "based on 2018 regular season performance with age and level being major factors in how each statistical category is weighted". Astros' minor leaguers on that list that don't show up elsewhere:

  • 67. INF Josh Rojas
  • 106. LHP Ryan Hartman
  • 127. 1B Taylor Jones

https://www.rosterresource.com/milb-power-rankings/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #54 on: August 27, 2018, 08:58:53 am »
Roster Resources has a MiLB Top 200 Power Rankings (3rd year they've been doing this) which is "based on 2018 regular season performance with age and level being major factors in how each statistical category is weighted". Astros' minor leaguers on that list that don't show up elsewhere:

  • 67. INF Josh Rojas
  • 106. LHP Ryan Hartman
  • 127. 1B Taylor Jones

https://www.rosterresource.com/milb-power-rankings/
Thanks for posting this.

As a reaction to the piece, though, I am suspicious of pure-stat analyses in MiLB - especially below AA. K rate and B.B. rate are good, but even there a pitcher trying to master a new pitch will suffer by comparisons. I find these lists fascinating but not always helpful in predicting progression up the ladder.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #55 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:39 am »
As a reaction to the piece, though, I am suspicious of pure-stat analyses in MiLB - especially below AA. K rate and B.B. rate are good, but even there a pitcher trying to master a new pitch will suffer by comparisons. I find these lists fascinating but not always helpful in predicting progression up the ladder.

I don't disagree with any of that. But since the players I highlighted are all AA players and are (arguably) having breakthrough seasons, I thought it worth noting anyway.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #56 on: August 29, 2018, 06:34:29 pm »
More bullish than most, an assessment of CF Ronnie Dawson from https://2080baseball.com/reports/ronnie-dawson/. Regarding his defense:

"Doesn't have the straightline speed to be a slam dunk CF at the big league level, but plus routes and reads make him an average defender there. Plays deep to compensate, goes back on the ball better than he closes in on bloops.
Average arm w/ fair line and carry. Not a liability, not a weapon."

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #57 on: August 30, 2018, 08:37:24 pm »
The ones which come with written scouting reports I believe I've already linked to but there's video only available for the following players (some of whom it's a stretch to call "prospects"): Cody Bohanek, Jake Adams, Jake Meyers, Jonathan Arauz, Corey Julks, JJ Matijevic, Michael Papierski, Osvaldo Duarte, Seth Beer, Jeremy Pena, Bryan De La Cruz, Enmanuel Valdez and Jose Hernandez.

https://2080baseball.com/2018-video-prospect-library/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #58 on: August 30, 2018, 09:30:42 pm »
24. RHP Manny Ramirez (18 year old with 32 K / 10 BB in 26.2 IP in the GCL)

After the 3 scoreless innings for TRC tonight with 7 whiffs, he'll finish the regular season with 55/19 strikeouts to walks in 39 IP with 30 hits allowed.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #59 on: September 02, 2018, 08:43:32 am »
There's some limitations with this (including the fact that BA and Sickels did only partial midseason updates while BP did none at all) but here's the 54 players who have shown up on prospect lists since January...

4 or More Prospect Lists (21)
OF Kyle Tucker              FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels   
RHP Forrest Whitley           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Yordan Alvarez           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
LHP Cionel Perez                   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Corbin Martin           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
SS Freudis Nova              FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP J.B. Bukauskas           FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
C Garrett Stubbs                   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Rogelio Armenteros   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Jairo Solis              FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF J.J. Matijevic                   FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Seth Beer                      FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Josh James              FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bielak           FG/BA/MP/Sickels
SS Jonathan Arauz           FG/BA/BP/MP
RHP Riley Ferrell                   FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Joe Perez                      FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Dean Deetz              FG/BA/MP/Sickels
LHP Framber Valdez           FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Cristian Javier           FG/BA/MP/Sickels
OF Myles Straw              BA/BP/MP/Sickels

3 Prospect Lists (3)
3B Abraham Toro      FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bailey           FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Tyler Ivey              FG/MP/Sickels

2 Prospect Lists (12)
RHP Jayson Schroeder   FG/MP
SS Jeremy Pena              FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave           FG/BA
OF Alex McKenna              FG/MP
RHP Trent Thornton           MP/Sickels
RHP Peter Solomon           FG/Sickels
OF Ronnie Dawson           BA/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez           BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra           BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado           BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry              BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock                   MP/Sickels

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan           FG
RHP Manny Ramirez           FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte           FG   
RHP Bryan Abreu              FG
RHP Carlos Sanabria           FG
SS Deury Carrasco           FG
RHP Cody Deason      FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz              FG
RHP Enoli Paredes           FG
RHP Johanse Torres           BA
1B Randy Cesar              MP
C Michael Papierski           Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana           Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson           Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala           Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez   Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra                   Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman           Sickels

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--26
LHP--6
C--5
1B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + three "rising prospects" from that update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #60 on: September 09, 2018, 06:44:18 pm »
Apologies, but my anal side just couldn't stand the damn uneven formatting...

4 or More Prospect Lists (21)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels

3 Prospect Lists (3)
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels

2 Prospect Lists (12)
RHP Jayson Schroeder..........FG/MP
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/Sickels
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--26
LHP--6
C--5
1B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + three "rising prospects" from that update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article

VirtualBob

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #61 on: September 09, 2018, 10:13:01 pm »
Apologies, but my anal side just couldn't stand the damn uneven formatting...

Thanks for the info (and formatting).

By the way, do you know how to diagnose OCD?  One simple question:

"Does anal retentive have a hyphen?"
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #62 on: September 09, 2018, 10:35:55 pm »
Came across this quote today re Cristian Javier who finished the year with 146 Ks in 110 IP:

“What Javier has going for him is one of the top five swing-and-miss fastballs in minor league baseball,″ Buies Creek manager Morgan Ensberg said. “He was able to locate that today. Obviously, he was able to locate his offspeed – his slider and his changeup. And anytime somebody is commanding three pitches in the zone it’s virtually impossible to get hits at any level, including the big leagues.″

http://www.fayobserver.com/sports/20180613/javier-makes-buies-creek-debut-one-to-remember

The following was posted previously but I'm including it here as a nice complement to the above:

"He has a really unique fastball," [pitching coach Drew] French said. "The way he uses it and is able to pitch at the top of the zone, it's really unique to A-ball. His fastball plays well. The deception along with the shape of it really gives him the opportunity to miss barrels and get over bats for swings and misses and strikeouts." Javier added a changeup to his repertoire, and the results have been evident. "It's more or less not what he doesn't do but what he does well," French said. "He locates his fastball and his off-speed pitches are for strikes. He manages the game like a big leaguer. The only thing that's different this year is his physicality. He's stronger and his velocity is better. The use of his changeup though is the difference-maker."

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/houston-astros-cristian-javier-hurls-six-hitless-innings-in-carolina-league-season-debut/c-281149104


Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #63 on: September 10, 2018, 02:07:27 am »
Josh Norris @jnorris427 5 hours ago
There were 14 players in MiLB this year with 30+ SBs and double-digit HRs
C. Ray (MIL)
B. Hicklen (KC)
R. Dawson (HOU)
A. Velazquez (TB)
B. Reed (SD)
J. Downs (CIN)
E. Ruiz (SD)
J. Kendall (LAD)
M. O'Neill (TEX)
B. Bichette (TOR)
F. Wall (TOR)
C. Julks (HOU)
G. Hampson (COL)

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #64 on: September 13, 2018, 03:02:20 pm »
From BA's chat today regarding a question asking whether Ryan Hartman should be considered a prospect:

Quote
Kyle Glaser: Let me put it this way...in both our Astros organizational calls and Texas League calls, no one inside or outside the organization brought up Hartman as a guy who should rank for them. Of course, it's always possible the Astros are trying to hide him, and lefties tend to have a long shelf life, but right now he's not someone seen as a long-term ML prospect in the Astros system

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #65 on: September 13, 2018, 03:16:36 pm »
In general, I get how guys who are marginal to the eyes but impressive in the box scores get ignored.  Specifically, I've seen some marginal arms in action, who I don't even note, come up with some impressive lines.  However, I'd prefer to hear some rebel evaluator step out on a limb and say something positive before I get excited.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #66 on: September 13, 2018, 03:31:49 pm »
From BA's chat today regarding a question asking whether Ryan Hartman should be considered a prospect:

Was Keuchel highly rated? I don't remember much buzz about him.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #67 on: September 13, 2018, 03:34:19 pm »
Was Keuchel highly rated? I don't remember much buzz about him.

He was considered a #4-5 starter or swingman out of the bullpen when he was at AA.
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #68 on: September 13, 2018, 03:55:42 pm »
Was Keuchel highly rated? I don't remember much buzz about him.

BA Top 30 Astros Prospects:

2010 #24
2011 #23
2012 #21

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #69 on: September 13, 2018, 05:12:39 pm »
He was considered a #4-5 starter or swingman out of the bullpen when he was at AA.

I don't know how it was rated then, but I doubt Hartman has an MLB-level pitch anywhere near Keuchel's cutter.  Or that he'll get several years with the Astros to figure it out.
You may ask yourself, "How do I work this?"

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #70 on: September 13, 2018, 08:18:03 pm »
BA Top 30 Astros Prospects:

2010 #24
2011 #23
2012 #21
And that was in the dark ages.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #71 on: September 14, 2018, 04:14:43 am »
THE YET TO MAKE A PROSPECT LIST BUT STILL INTERESTING GUYS (1 OF 2)

Note that I'm limiting the following discussion to players 24 or younger with the caveat that in some cases (primarily 2018 draftees) we're talking about extremely, extremely small sample sizes. Let's talk about some of the more interesting names in the system who have NOT shown up on a prospect list in the past year while  (as least in some cases) highlighting certain flaws that suggest perhaps why an extended MLB career might not be in their future:

RHP Akeem Bostick
Finally made AAA after 4 years in the system and 6 years in the minors overall after being a 2nd round pick (62nd overall) of the Rangers back in 2013. For a guy with a fastball topping out at 95, his K numbers have always been surprisingly low. Entering 2018, his K rate for his career was on the order of 17.3%. This year it jumped to 25.6%. Very nice to see, although it should be noted that his BB rate also jumped up to 9.0%. The higher punchouts make you wonder if there would be an even further tick up in K rate if he were to be put into a relief role (saying that after seeing him strike out the side the other day in the PCL playoffs in one of the first true relief appearances of his career). Still just 23, he's listed at a rangy 6'6" 215 lbs.

RHP Brock Dyxkhoorn
Like Bostick, somewhat of a breakthrough season for a guy who's been in the system for a number of years (5, in Dyxkhoorn's case). A substantial move upward in his strikeout rate this season (23.9%) versus his previous 4-year average (19.6%). And he did it without much increase in his BB rate (7.5% vs pre-2018 6.8%). Big boy at 6'8" 250 lbs who recently turned 24.

UTIL Alex De Goti
The 15th rounder from the 2016 draft posted career-best numbers in his 3rd season in the organization after moving up to AA/AAA this year (a combined .283/.335/.440). You'd like to see a higher walk rate from him but it did increase when he moved from the Hooks to the Grizzlies (9.3% vs 4.7%). He did a really nice job of making more contact in 2018, lowering his K rate to 16.2% from the 21.9% rate in 2016-2017 despite the jump(s) in level. The 24-year old has played a significant amount of SS (along with 2B and 3B) thus far in his three seasons and if he can credibly play the position at the next level then that certainly gives him a possible leg up as a future utility guy in the bigs. To further enhance that possibility, I'd like to see him getting some turns in the outfield next year at Fresno that place north of Austin.

LHP Ryan Hartman
If nothing else, the soft-tosser is listed here as Exhibit A on the perils of scouting the stat line (not that folks on this board are guilty of falling into that particular trap). 143 Ks vs 26 BBs in 121 IP with a .235 BAA and led the Texas League in just about every pitching category. The 24-year old kept getting better as the season went along--an 0.91 WHIP and 1.98 ERA in the second half versus 1.26 and 3.47 respectively in the first half. And even better down the stretch, with 47 Ks and a measly 2 walks in 38 IP and only 21 hits allowed over his final 7 outings (that includes the 1st game of the playoffs). Good size at a listed 6'3" 205 lbs.

RHP Justin Ferrell
The 24-year old's numbers bumped up this year as the Astros transitioned him from a tandem guy to full-time reliever. Started the year in A-ball and by year-end had made it to AAA. 82/25 K to W in 65 innings this year with a .193 BAA. A big guy at a listed 6'7" and (I'm guessing out-of-date) 205 lbs. Jim Stevenson signee.

RHP Erasmo Pinales
A reliever for the Hooks, the Astros thought enough of him to send him in October to the Arizona Fall League after posting 72 whiffs vs (yikes) 31 walks in 56 IP this year. If you like a nice downward plane on your fastballs, probably won't see it from Pinales as he's listed at just 5'11". Was reported to touch 98 with his fastball a couple of years ago but haven't seem anything more recent to confirm that. As you can see from that walk total, control remains a continuing problem for him.

1B Taylor Jones
The 24-year old's .314/.409/.528 slash line for CC was a breakthrough for him and represents an interesting combo of patience and power. Several caveats, though. First is that he struggled in his 39 games for Fresno. You might be tempted to shrug that off as SSS but then there's the second concern: his numbers with the Hooks might have been inflated as a result of a .377 BABIP. 2019 will tell us more about how much offense the 6'7" Mr. Jones actually brings to the party. TL managers did name him best defensive 1B.

OF Carmen Benedetti
Not quite sure what to make of the 23 year old rightfielder's year for the Hooks. He missed about a quarter of the season after being put on the DL on 2 separate occasions and after returning the second time (in mid-July) it's not entirely clear to me if he was fully healthy. His final numbers weren't horrible (.277/.365/.443) and showed a tad more power than his previous two seasons. As with any corner guy, that pop will be key to his future progression and his (relatively) lackluster numbers in that regard likely explain his absence from any recent prospect list. He also missed some time in 2017 so staying healthy may also also have some impact on his prospect status.

UTIL Josh Rojas
He and Corbin Martin were the first Astros' picks from the 2017 draft to reach AA (both joined Corpus on May 1). But the Aggie was a 2nd rounder while the ex-Rainbow Warrior was a 26th rounder so I'll go with the latter as the greater accomplishment. Has shown tremendous positional versatility over his first 2 pro seasons, playing 6 different positions (LF, RF, 1B, 2B, 3B and SS). The 24-year old has shown flashes of power (.217 ISO last year) and speed (38 SBs this year). Also showed nice ability this year to draw walks (12.2% BB rate) and keep the strikeouts relatively low (16% K rate). As with De Goti, players whose ceiling is utility guy aren't necessarily the most likely candidates for prospect lists.

OF Chas McCormick
So who was next fastest to AA from the 2017 draft behind Rojas and Martin? That would be this guy, a 21st-rounder who made it to Corpus a month after Rojas and Martin did. The 23-year old out of D2 Millersville U appears to have some defensive versatility by being able to play all 3 outfield positions. He also has some speed, stealing 19 of 23 bases this year. But he didn't put up eye-popping offensive numbers this season with a .273/.339/.373 slash line between BC and CC. However, there may be a hint that good things are coming next year. He decreased his K rate from 16.3% at BC (already one of the lower whiff rates in the system) to 11.3% when he made the jump to AA. Good things could happen in 2019 if he can keep that K rate low and drive the ball a bit more. Speaking of, he went off in the Texas League playoffs with a number of hard-hit balls: 3 homers and a double in just 5 games.

RHP Jose Hernandez
Good numbers this year (48 K/10 BB in 57 IP with 55 hits allowed) particularly considering he missed all of 2017 due to TJS. He was especially strong over his last 5 starts (includes one playoff game): 32.2 IP, 27 H, 0 BB, 32 K, 1.65 ERA. Size an issue at a listed 6'0". The previously linked 2080baseball.com report on him noted a low 90s fastball and above average curveball with the upshot: "Profiles as long reliever or low-leverage middleman able to pitch numerous innings. Older and more polished arm dominating younger hitters in A-Ball, looks ready for next level."

RHP Abdiel Saldana
The smallish (he's listed at 5'11") Panamanian has spent 5 years with the Astros but is still just 22. Excellent numbers this year for BC with 100 punchouts and just 26 free passes in 108 innings. And he allowed just 1 HR all season. Not surprising then that he led the minor leagues with a 2.38 FIP (minimum: 100 IP). Don't know what his entire repetoire is but apparently his changeup is quite the killer--teammate Carson LaRue called it "absolutely unbelievable" in a WTHB interview last year.

RHP Yohan Ramirez
23-year old Dominican pitcher who's listed at 6'4 190 lbs. Started the year at QC where as part of the tandem he K'd 62 in 58 IP but also walked 28. The latter has been an issue for him during his 3 years in the organization evidenced by the career BB rate of 12.7%. Midseason he was moved up to BC where he was moved to the bullpen--we'll have to wait until 2019 to find out if that was just a temporary move or a more permanent one due to his lack of control (besides all the walks, he also led the system this year in plunks with 12). But the velocity noted previously for him (sitting 95-96, topping 98-99) makes him interesting. At least for now. If you read the 2080baseball.com summary on him you saw this: "Middle relief ceiling--despite power fastball, lacks the control or secondary pitches for true leverage situations. Risk to profile, will fall short of ceiling if he can't improve delivery or throw more strikes."

OF Jake Meyers
Defensively, the Omaha native whose parents gave him the middle name "Berkshire" is solid in CF. On the bat side, he didn't show much pop in college (he hit just 3 longballs in 2+ seasons) and while he's shown a bit more power as a pro it's questionable whether that's ever going to be one of his strengths. But if you're an optimist and believe the former 13th round pick can develop into a 10+ homers a season player, then combined with his on-base skills (had a 10.4% walk rate this season which increased to 12.0% after being promoted to BC) and defensive value he could be a very interesting guy. Reports say the former Husker is a 70 runner so his 53% success rate in 30 steal attempts this season indicates work is needed on his baserunning skills (he confirmed that in an interview with the QC Times back in June).

OF Corey Julks
More "what if" time. As previously noted, the former Coog has retooled his swing to get a better launch angle. That's not exactly unique for players these days though I sense his might have been more radical than most (or at least a more difficult transition). It seems it might finally be producing results, going from .259/.341/.379 in the season's first half to .282/.362/.458 in the second half. That's particularly impressive given the second half was spent at BC after the promotion from QC. Things seemed to particularly click in August when he posted a .305/.373/.543 line over his last 27 regular season games with 10 doubles and 5 homers. He added another HR in the 1st round of the CL playoffs. His batted ball data also seems to support a better swing approach, with his GB% declining from 45.5% in 2017 at TRC to 42.1% at QC and 39.2% at BC. And there was a particularly dramatic decline in his popups (31.3% to 23.2% to 16.9%). If you believe the swing change improvements are permanent, then his blend of power + speed (see above: one of only 11 minor leaguers this year with 30 steals and 10+ HRs) coupled with his selective approach at the plate (10.8% BB rate at BC, 10.5% overall this season) make for a very attractive offensive performer. Defensively, the 22-year old Julks has only started 4 games in CF over his first 2 seasons in the organization. Somewhat puzzling as rotating minor league OFs through all 3 positions in the grass tends to be more the organizational norm so as to give players as much experience as possible and better evaluate them in game situations. Or maybe not so puzzling: after a game last year at TRC in which Julks dropped a FB while playing RF, Morgan Ensberg described him as "more of a left fielder". Ugh.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #72 on: September 14, 2018, 07:39:53 am »
Added pitcher Luis Garcia to this list (he was the bonus supplement prospect sent out with the BA Prospect Handbook)...

4 or More Prospect Lists (21)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels

3 Prospect Lists (3)
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels

2 Prospect Lists (12)
RHP Jayson Schroeder..........FG/MP
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/Sickels
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels

1 Prospect List (19)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--27
LHP--6
C--5
1B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article

Mike S.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #73 on: September 15, 2018, 12:51:11 pm »
THE YET TO MAKE A PROSPECT LIST BUT STILL INTERESTING GUYS (1 OF 2)

Note that I'm limiting the following discussion to players 24 or younger with the caveat that in some cases (primarily 2018 draftees) we're talking about extremely, extremely small sample sizes. Let's talk about some of the more interesting names in the system who have NOT shown up on a prospect list in the past year while  (as least in some cases) highlighting certain flaws that suggest perhaps why an extended MLB career might not be in their future:

RHP Akeem Bostick
Finally made AAA after 4 years in the system and 6 years in the minors overall after being a 2nd round pick (62nd overall) of the Rangers back in 2013. For a guy with a fastball topping out at 95, his K numbers have always been surprisingly low. Entering 2018, his K rate for his career was on the order of 17.3%. This year it jumped to 25.6%. Very nice to see, although it should be noted that his BB rate also jumped up to 9.0%. The higher punchouts make you wonder if there would be an even further tick up in K rate if he were to be put into a relief role (saying that after seeing him strike out the side the other day in the PCL playoffs in one of the first true relief appearances of his career). Still just 23, he's listed at a rangy 6'6" 215 lbs.

RHP Brock Dyxkhoorn
Like Bostick, somewhat of a breakthrough season for a guy who's been in the system for a number of years (5, in Dyxkhoorn's case). A substantial move upward in his strikeout rate this season (23.9%) versus his previous 4-year average (19.6%). And he did it without much increase in his BB rate (7.5% vs pre-2018 6.8%). Big boy at 6'8" 250 lbs who recently turned 24.

UTIL Alex De Goti
The 15th rounder from the 2016 draft posted career-best numbers in his 3rd season in the organization after moving up to AA/AAA this year (a combined .283/.335/.440). You'd like to see a higher walk rate from him but it did increase when he moved from the Hooks to the Grizzlies (9.3% vs 4.7%). He did a really nice job of making more contact in 2018, lowering his K rate to 16.2% from the 21.9% rate in 2016-2017 despite the jump(s) in level. The 24-year old has played a significant amount of SS (along with 2B and 3B) thus far in his three seasons and if he can credibly play the position at the next level then that certainly gives him a possible leg up as a future utility guy in the bigs. To further enhance that possibility, I'd like to see him getting some turns in the outfield next year at Fresno that place north of Austin.

LHP Ryan Hartman
If nothing else, the soft-tosser is listed here as Exhibit A on the perils of scouting the stat line (not that folks on this board are guilty of falling into that particular trap). 143 Ks vs 26 BBs in 121 IP with a .235 BAA and led the Texas League in just about every pitching category. The 24-year old kept getting better as the season went along--an 0.91 WHIP and 1.98 ERA in the second half versus 1.26 and 3.47 respectively in the first half. And even better down the stretch, with 47 Ks and a measly 2 walks in 38 IP and only 21 hits allowed over his final 7 outings (that includes the 1st game of the playoffs). Good size at a listed 6'3" 205 lbs.

RHP Justin Ferrell
The 24-year old's numbers bumped up this year as the Astros transitioned him from a tandem guy to full-time reliever. Started the year in A-ball and by year-end had made it to AAA. 82/25 K to W in 65 innings this year with a .193 BAA. A big guy at a listed 6'7" and (I'm guessing out-of-date) 205 lbs. Jim Stevenson signee.

RHP Erasmo Pinales
A reliever for the Hooks, the Astros thought enough of him to send him in October to the Arizona Fall League after posting 72 whiffs vs (yikes) 31 walks in 56 IP this year. If you like a nice downward plane on your fastballs, probably won't see it from Pinales as he's listed at just 5'11". Was reported to touch 98 with his fastball a couple of years ago but haven't seem anything more recent to confirm that. As you can see from that walk total, control remains a continuing problem for him.

1B Taylor Jones
The 24-year old's .314/.409/.528 slash line for CC was a breakthrough for him and represents an interesting combo of patience and power. Several caveats, though. First is that he struggled in his 39 games for Fresno. You might be tempted to shrug that off as SSS but then there's the second concern: his numbers with the Hooks might have been inflated as a result of a .377 BABIP. 2019 will tell us more about how much offense the 6'7" Mr. Jones actually brings to the party. TL managers did name him best defensive 1B.

OF Carmen Benedetti
Not quite sure what to make of the 23 year old rightfielder's year for the Hooks. He missed about a quarter of the season after being put on the DL on 2 separate occasions and after returning the second time (in mid-July) it's not entirely clear to me if he was fully healthy. His final numbers weren't horrible (.277/.365/.443) and showed a tad more power than his previous two seasons. As with any corner guy, that pop will be key to his future progression and his (relatively) lackluster numbers in that regard likely explain his absence from any recent prospect list. He also missed some time in 2017 so staying healthy may also also have some impact on his prospect status.

UTIL Josh Rojas
He and Corbin Martin were the first Astros' picks from the 2017 draft to reach AA (both joined Corpus on May 1). But the Aggie was a 2nd rounder while the ex-Rainbow Warrior was a 26th rounder so I'll go with the latter as the greater accomplishment. Has shown tremendous positional versatility over his first 2 pro seasons, playing 6 different positions (LF, RF, 1B, 2B, 3B and SS). The 24-year old has shown flashes of power (.217 ISO last year) and speed (38 SBs this year). Also showed nice ability this year to draw walks (12.2% BB rate) and keep the strikeouts relatively low (16% K rate). As with De Goti, players whose ceiling is utility guy aren't necessarily the most likely candidates for prospect lists.

OF Chas McCormick
So who was next fastest to AA from the 2017 draft behind Rojas and Martin? That would be this guy, a 21st-rounder who made it to Corpus a month after Rojas and Martin did. The 23-year old out of D2 Millersville U appears to have some defensive versatility by being able to play all 3 outfield positions. He also has some speed, stealing 19 of 23 bases this year. But he didn't put up eye-popping offensive numbers this season with a .273/.339/.373 slash line between BC and CC. However, there may be a hint that good things are coming next year. He decreased his K rate from 16.3% at BC (already one of the lower whiff rates in the system) to 11.3% when he made the jump to AA. Good things could happen in 2019 if he can keep that K rate low and drive the ball a bit more. Speaking of, he went off in the Texas League playoffs with a number of hard-hit balls: 3 homers and a double in just 5 games.

RHP Jose Hernandez
Good numbers this year (48 K/10 BB in 57 IP with 55 hits allowed) particularly considering he missed all of 2017 due to TJS. He was especially strong over his last 5 starts (includes one playoff game): 32.2 IP, 27 H, 0 BB, 32 K, 1.65 ERA. Size an issue at a listed 6'0". The previously linked 2080baseball.com report on him noted a low 90s fastball and above average curveball with the upshot: "Profiles as long reliever or low-leverage middleman able to pitch numerous innings. Older and more polished arm dominating younger hitters in A-Ball, looks ready for next level."

RHP Abdiel Saldana
The smallish (he's listed at 5'11") Panamanian has spent 5 years with the Astros but is still just 22. Excellent numbers this year for BC with 100 punchouts and just 26 free passes in 108 innings. And he allowed just 1 HR all season. Not surprising then that he led the minor leagues with a 2.38 FIP (minimum: 100 IP). Don't know what his entire repetoire is but apparently his changeup is quite the killer--teammate Carson LaRue called it "absolutely unbelievable" in a WTHB interview last year.

RHP Yohan Ramirez
23-year old Dominican pitcher who's listed at 6'4 190 lbs. Started the year at QC where as part of the tandem he K'd 62 in 58 IP but also walked 28. The latter has been an issue for him during his 3 years in the organization evidenced by the career BB rate of 12.7%. Midseason he was moved up to BC where he was moved to the bullpen--we'll have to wait until 2019 to find out if that was just a temporary move or a more permanent one due to his lack of control (besides all the walks, he also led the system this year in plunks with 12). But the velocity noted previously for him (sitting 95-96, topping 98-99) makes him interesting. At least for now. If you read the 2080baseball.com summary on him you saw this: "Middle relief ceiling--despite power fastball, lacks the control or secondary pitches for true leverage situations. Risk to profile, will fall short of ceiling if he can't improve delivery or throw more strikes."

OF Jake Meyers
Defensively, the Omaha native whose parents gave him the middle name "Berkshire" is solid in CF. On the bat side, he didn't show much pop in college (he hit just 3 longballs in 2+ seasons) and while he's shown a bit more power as a pro it's questionable whether that's ever going to be one of his strengths. But if you're an optimist and believe the former 13th round pick can develop into a 10+ homers a season player, then combined with his on-base skills (had a 10.4% walk rate this season which increased to 12.0% after being promoted to BC) and defensive value he could be a very interesting guy. Reports say the former Husker is a 70 runner so his 53% success rate in 30 steal attempts this season indicates work is needed on his baserunning skills (he confirmed that in an interview with the QC Times back in June).

OF Corey Julks
More "what if" time. As previously noted, the former Coog has retooled his swing to get a better launch angle. That's not exactly unique for players these days though I sense his might have been more radical than most (or at least a more difficult transition). It seems it might finally be producing results, going from .259/.341/.379 in the season's first half to .282/.362/.458 in the second half. That's particularly impressive given the second half was spent at BC after the promotion from QC. Things seemed to particularly click in August when he posted a .305/.373/.543 line over his last 27 regular season games with 10 doubles and 5 homers. He added another HR in the 1st round of the CL playoffs. His batted ball data also seems to support a better swing approach, with his GB% declining from 45.5% in 2017 at TRC to 42.1% at QC and 39.2% at BC. And there was a particularly dramatic decline in his popups (31.3% to 23.2% to 16.9%). If you believe the swing change improvements are permanent, then his blend of power + speed (see above: one of only 11 minor leaguers this year with 30 steals and 10+ HRs) coupled with his selective approach at the plate (10.8% BB rate at BC, 10.5% overall this season) make for a very attractive offensive performer. Defensively, the 22-year old Julks has only started 4 games in CF over his first 2 seasons in the organization. Somewhat puzzling as rotating minor league OFs through all 3 positions in the grass tends to be more the organizational norm so as to give players as much experience as possible and better evaluate them in game situations. Or maybe not so puzzling: after a game last year at TRC in which Julks dropped a FB while playing RF, Morgan Ensberg described him as "more of a left fielder". Ugh.

Perhaps the jumping the gun on list 2 of 2, but any consideration given to Stephen Wrenn?
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Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #74 on: September 15, 2018, 01:16:33 pm »
Perhaps the jumping the gun on list 2 of 2, but any consideration given to Stephen Wrenn?

Definite consideration because of the speed and defense. But it's hard for me to get past that 25.9% K rate particularly when there's not a huge level of power to go along with it.

He's not going to be on the second list because that's lower level guys but I may yet go back and add him to list #1.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #75 on: September 15, 2018, 08:12:46 pm »
THE YET TO MAKE A PROSPECT LIST BUT STILL INTERESTING GUYS (2 OF 2)

This part of the list covers guys in the lower levels of the system who finished the year in either QC (9), TRC (6) or the GCL (1). Same criteria/caveats as the first list: (1) limited to players 24 or younger (2) particularly with regards to 2018 draftees, some extremely, extremely small sample sizes may be used (3) player has NOT shown up on a prospect list in the past year and (4) at least in some cases, certain flaws are highlighted which suggest why an extended MLB career might not be in the offing.

RHP Humberto Castellanos
The 20-year old J2 signee out of Mexico back in 2015 (when he was 17) was used exclusively for the first time this season as a reliever and as you might guess that caused a spike upwards in his K rate (26% in 2018 vs 17.3% in 2016-2017). Was particularly strong over the last month or so of the regular season (21.1 IP / 17 H / 5 BB / 29 K / 1.27 ERA) though he did have a bit of blowup in a game during the playoffs. We'll have to see whether the excellent work out of the pen this season gets rewarded by a move back to the tandem next year. If that doesn't happen, then being moved into relief at such a young age probably is not a good sign. As with Hernandez, Saldana and others, size for the righty (he's listed at 5'11") may be problematic.

RHP Willy Collado
A number of similarities with Castellanos--righty, age 20, used exclusively out of the QC bullpen this year, breakthrough season in his 3rd year in the organization, low walk rate (Castellanos at just 6%, Collado at 6.3%), finished the year strong (27 IP / 14 H / 4 BB / 40 K / 1.00 ERA). But Collado seems the superior prospect given that he's taller (6'2"), had an overall better season than Humberto (K rate higher at 34.4%, lower WHIP at 0.94, etc.) and especially this in a tweet from Oz Ocampo: "Devastating SL when on, one of the best in our system. Plus with solid CH now". Should be a tandem job in the offing next season.

RHP Chad Donato
In his 2nd season after the TJS, the ex-11th rounder (2016) and Cypress native was outstanding in his stops at TRC and QC. Had the lowest WHIP in the system at 0.88 among pitchers who threw at least 75 innings. Among similar qualifiers, his 32.8% K rate was also among the org leaders. An above average curve and low 90's fastball were the reports on him (at least prior to the surgery). He added a slider to the repetoire last month and over his last 3 regular season outings K'd 32 in 18.2 IP. That was all part of a glistening final six weeks of the season. Over his last 8 outings (including 1 playoff start): 45.2 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 56 K, 1.18 ERA, .155 BAA. It'll be interesting to see next year whether the powers that be skip him over Fayetteville and have him start the year at Corpus. At a listed 6'0", the 23-year old's size may work against him.

LHP Parker Mushinski
The Red Raider ex had shaky control while pitching in Lubbock and that has continued into the pros. This season for QC the 22-year old out of the Metroplex had a 11.9% BB rate, one of the highest of any starter (min: 80 IP) in the system. But there were significant positives as well--a BAA of just .189 and a K rate topping 30%. Given his wildness issues, org brass may have realized his future was not as a starter and on Aug 3 he was moved to the River Bandits bullpen. Alternatively, the move was made to simply limit his innings for the year. Whichever the reason, the results were pretty slick: 14.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 28 K. He also ended the regular season not having given up an ER over his last 21.1 innings. Low 90s FB (T94) and above avg curve was the scouting report from 2017. They've got him listed at 6'0" 225 lbs. A Jim Stevenson signee.

LHP Tim Hardy
The 6'7" 250 lb pitcher out of Tusculum has been used exclusively as a bullpen piece since being drafted in the 18th round last year so the upside here is probably fairly limited. The 49 Ks in 30.2 innings this season for TRC and QC definitely is intriguing. The BB rate of 10.5% over his first 2 seasons not so much. Almost guaranteed that the 22-year old has a return ticket to Davenport to start next season. A clue to his future there will be if his control improves enough that he's inserted into a tandem role.

RHP Hansel Paulino
After being a starter at Greeneville last year, the 22-year old from the Dominican moved to the pen this year and predictably saw an uptick in his K rate (27.3% vs 23.3% last year). His walk rate was low at 6.6% and consistent with his two prior seasons. Hitters don't seem to get very good contact against him, generating lots of popups and relatively few line drives per the batted ball data. Consequently, they hit just .209 off him. Absent any type of scouting report on him, really hard to get a sense of his future in the organization. Listed at 6'2" 170 lbs.

RHP Edgardo Sandoval
Very similar profile to Jose Hernandez above. Both put up very solid numbers in return from TJS after missing all or most of 2017. In the case of Sandoval, the 22-year old from Panama posted 59/14 strikeouts to walks in 45.2 innings with 46 hits allowed. Sandoval also mirrored Hernandez in getting stronger as the season wore on--over his last 10 games (including 1 playoff start), he had a K/9 of 13.3 in 40 innings. And like Hernandez, he's not particularly tall (listed at 6'0").

C Ruben Castro
Having a nice season at the plate until missing the last 3 weeks due to a knee infection. He lacked pop but otherwise a solid .299/.395/.381 slash line (albeit in just 38 games). Having his season cut short was especially frustrating as he was on a 10-game hitting streak at the time and over his last 22 games (since June 16) was batting .333/.421/.407 with 11 walks vs 14 strikeouts in 95 PAs. Yet to see a scouting report evaluating his skills behind the plate.

RHP R.J. Freure
The Burlington, Ontario native led the nation this spring with a 14.6 K/9 for the Pitt Panthers and K'd 29 in 27.2 IP for the ValleyCats after being taken in the 6th round by the Astros. 92-95 on the FB with a plus curveball. The scouting report says 30 grade command, however, and we saw that with TRC as he walked 13 and plunked 3. Lack of a 3rd pitch points to a future in relief but I would expect in the near term he'll work in the tandem to try and develop a change and maximize the opportunities to try and refine that command. 20-years old at the time of the draft, he's listed at 6'1" 205 lbs.

RHP Austin Hansen
In some ways not all that dissimilar from Freure. College reliever, 93-95 FB, good CB, command issues, lots of punchouts this spring for the Sooners (52 in 38 IP) and the K party continued in the NYPL with 45 in 30.2 innings. Not quite as tall as the Canadian at 6'0" and that may be an issue. Does have a decent change for a 3rd pitch. A Jim Stevenson signee.

RHP Brett Conine
One of five former college relievers taken in the 2018 draft on this list. Like Freure with Pitt and Hansen with OU, Conine performed closing duties for Cal State Fullerton using a decent FB (touching mid 90s but lacking movement) and curve. 37/11 K to BB in 31.2 IP for the V-Cats after being drafted with just 23 hits allowed (including zero HRs). Nice sized frame at a listed 6'3" 210 lbs.

RHP J.P. France
Older kid (23) and a bit undersized (6'0") who was a starter at Tulane before transferring to Miss State for his senior year and used as a starter. More than decent results in limited action for TRC/QC: 18 IP, 10 H, 6 BB, 28 K, 0.50 ERA.

RHP Brett Daniels
Career reliever in his 4 seasons for the Tarheels who sometimes experienced wildness issues. But that wasn't evident in his first pro season as he posted really smooth numbers in the NYPL: 33.1 IP, 21 H, 7 BB, 36 K, 1.62 ERA (although he did allow 5 gopher balls). And yes I know this is sounding redundant, but at 6'0" size might be an issue.

RHP Ernesto Jaquez
19-year old out of the Dominican who eaned two promotions this year, going from the DSL to the GCL and then on to the NYPL. The results were impressive: 56.2 IP, 25 H, 17 BB, 74 K, 1.75 ERA. Signed for $95K last year at age 18. Listed at 6'2" 190 lbs.

RHP Felipe Tejada
66/16 K to BB in 54 innings with 51 hits allowed as a 20-year old this season in the NY-P. Signed at 16 out of the DR back in 2014. Listed at 6'1" 190 lbs.

RHP Alfredi Jimenez
J2 signee in 2017 from the Dominican and was an in-season promotion this year from the DSL to the GCL. The 18-year old racked up 63 punchouts vs just 13 walks and 35 hits in 55 IP (all but 12 of those innings came in the DSL). His batted ball data this season shows an extreme really, really extreme GB rate of 68%. Listed at 6'1" 175 lbs.


Positional Breakdown (both parts):
RHP--20
LHP--3
C--1
1B--1
UTIL--2
OF--5
« Last Edit: September 15, 2018, 08:42:44 pm by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #76 on: September 16, 2018, 12:32:20 pm »
Amending this to add Stephen Wrenn...

THE YET TO MAKE A PROSPECT LIST BUT STILL INTERESTING GUYS (1 OF 2)

Note that I'm limiting the following discussion to players 24 or younger with the caveat that in some cases (primarily 2018 draftees) we're talking about extremely, extremely small sample sizes. Let's talk about some of the more interesting names in the system who have NOT shown up on a prospect list in the past year while  (as least in some cases) highlighting certain flaws that suggest perhaps why an extended MLB career might not be in their future:

RHP Akeem Bostick
Finally made AAA after 4 years in the system and 6 years in the minors overall after being a 2nd round pick (62nd overall) of the Rangers back in 2013. For a guy with a fastball topping out at 95, his K numbers have always been surprisingly low. Entering 2018, his K rate for his career was on the order of 17.3%. This year it jumped to 25.6%. Very nice to see, although it should be noted that his BB rate also jumped up to 9.0%. The higher punchouts make you wonder if there would be an even further tick up in K rate if he were to be put into a relief role (saying that after seeing him strike out the side the other day in the PCL playoffs in one of the first true relief appearances of his career). Still just 23, he's listed at a rangy 6'6" 215 lbs.

RHP Brock Dyxkhoorn
Like Bostick, somewhat of a breakthrough season for a guy who's been in the system for a number of years (5, in Dyxkhoorn's case). A substantial move upward in his strikeout rate this season (23.9%) versus his previous 4-year average (19.6%). And he did it without much increase in his BB rate (7.5% vs pre-2018 6.8%). Big boy at 6'8" 250 lbs who recently turned 24.

UTIL Alex De Goti
The 15th rounder from the 2016 draft posted career-best numbers in his 3rd season in the organization after moving up to AA/AAA this year (a combined .283/.335/.440). You'd like to see a higher walk rate from him but it did increase when he moved from the Hooks to the Grizzlies (9.3% vs 4.7%). He did a really nice job of making more contact in 2018, lowering his K rate to 16.2% from the 21.9% rate in 2016-2017 despite the jump(s) in level. The 24-year old has played a significant amount of SS (along with 2B and 3B) thus far in his three seasons and if he can credibly play the position at the next level then that certainly gives him a possible leg up as a future utility guy in the bigs. To further enhance that possibility, I'd like to see him getting some turns in the outfield next year at Fresno that place north of Austin.

LHP Ryan Hartman
If nothing else, the soft-tosser is listed here as Exhibit A on the perils of scouting the stat line (not that folks on this board are guilty of falling into that particular trap). 143 Ks vs 26 BBs in 121 IP with a .235 BAA and led the Texas League in just about every pitching category. The 24-year old kept getting better as the season went along--an 0.91 WHIP and 1.98 ERA in the second half versus 1.26 and 3.47 respectively in the first half. And even better down the stretch, with 47 Ks and a measly 2 walks in 38 IP and only 21 hits allowed over his final 7 outings (that includes the 1st game of the playoffs). Good size at a listed 6'3" 205 lbs.

RHP Justin Ferrell
The 24-year old's numbers bumped up this year as the Astros transitioned him from a tandem guy to full-time reliever. Started the year in A-ball and by year-end had made it to AAA. 82/25 K to W in 65 innings this year with a .193 BAA. A big guy at a listed 6'7" and (I'm guessing out-of-date) 205 lbs. Jim Stevenson signee.

RHP Erasmo Pinales
A reliever for the Hooks, the Astros thought enough of him to send him in October to the Arizona Fall League after posting 72 whiffs vs (yikes) 31 walks in 56 IP this year. If you like a nice downward plane on your fastballs, probably won't see it from Pinales as he's listed at just 5'11". Was reported to touch 98 with his fastball a couple of years ago but haven't seem anything more recent to confirm that. As you can see from that walk total, control remains a continuing problem for him.

1B Taylor Jones
The 24-year old's .314/.409/.528 slash line for CC was a breakthrough for him and represents an interesting combo of patience and power. Several caveats, though. First is that he struggled in his 39 games for Fresno. You might be tempted to shrug that off as SSS but then there's the second concern: his numbers with the Hooks might have been inflated as a result of a .377 BABIP. 2019 will tell us more about how much offense the 6'7" Mr. Jones actually brings to the party. TL managers did name him best defensive 1B.

OF Carmen Benedetti
Not quite sure what to make of the 23 year old rightfielder's year for the Hooks. He missed about a quarter of the season after being put on the DL on 2 separate occasions and after returning the second time (in mid-July) it's not entirely clear to me if he was fully healthy. His final numbers weren't horrible (.277/.365/.443) and showed a tad more power than his previous two seasons. As with any corner guy, that pop will be key to his future progression and his (relatively) lackluster numbers in that regard likely explain his absence from any recent prospect list. He also missed some time in 2017 so staying healthy may also also have some impact on his prospect status.

UTIL Josh Rojas
He and Corbin Martin were the first Astros' picks from the 2017 draft to reach AA (both joined Corpus on May 1). But the Aggie was a 2nd rounder while the ex-Rainbow Warrior was a 26th rounder so I'll go with the latter as the greater accomplishment. Has shown tremendous positional versatility over his first 2 pro seasons, playing 6 different positions (LF, RF, 1B, 2B, 3B and SS). The 24-year old has shown flashes of power (.217 ISO last year) and speed (38 SBs this year). Also showed nice ability this year to draw walks (12.2% BB rate) and keep the strikeouts relatively low (16% K rate). As with De Goti, players whose ceiling is utility guy aren't necessarily the most likely candidates for prospect lists.

OF Chas McCormick
So who was next fastest to AA from the 2017 draft behind Rojas and Martin? That would be this guy, a 21st-rounder who made it to Corpus a month after Rojas and Martin did. The 23-year old out of D2 Millersville U appears to have some defensive versatility by being able to play all 3 outfield positions. He also has some speed, stealing 19 of 23 bases this year. But he didn't put up eye-popping offensive numbers this season with a .273/.339/.373 slash line between BC and CC. However, there may be a hint that good things are coming next year. He decreased his K rate from 16.3% at BC (already one of the lower whiff rates in the system) to 11.3% when he made the jump to AA. Good things could happen in 2019 if he can keep that K rate low and drive the ball a bit more. Speaking of, he went off in the Texas League playoffs with a number of hard-hit balls: 3 homers and a double in just 5 games.

OF Stephen Wrenn
Reports on his ability to play CF have always been positive from the time he he was drafted in the 6th round in 2016 so really the only question from the beginning was: could he hit? And the answer after 3 pro seasons: dunno. His high K rate of 25.9% for the Hooks this season was actually worse than his career average of 22.2% entering the year. At the same time, his power numbers in 2018 represented by a .123 ISO isn't gonna get anyone excited. There is one aspect on the offensive side that he did make major strides in this season and that was the running game. He was finally able to translate the terrific speed he has into a bunch of steals. After averaging 16 steals a year in 2016-2017, the former Georgia Bulldog exploded with 44 swipes this year to lead the Texas League. And he was caught just 10 times for a 81.5% success rate.

RHP Jose Hernandez
Good numbers this year (48 K/10 BB in 57 IP with 55 hits allowed) particularly considering he missed all of 2017 due to TJS. He was especially strong over his last 5 starts (includes one playoff game): 32.2 IP, 27 H, 0 BB, 32 K, 1.65 ERA. Size an issue at a listed 6'0". The previously linked 2080baseball.com report on him noted a low 90s fastball and above average curveball with the upshot: "Profiles as long reliever or low-leverage middleman able to pitch numerous innings. Older and more polished arm dominating younger hitters in A-Ball, looks ready for next level."

RHP Abdiel Saldana
The smallish (he's listed at 5'11") Panamanian has spent 5 years with the Astros but is still just 22. Excellent numbers this year for BC with 100 punchouts and just 26 free passes in 108 innings. And he allowed just 1 HR all season. Not surprising then that he led the minor leagues with a 2.38 FIP (minimum: 100 IP). Don't know what his entire repetoire is but apparently his changeup is quite the killer--teammate Carson LaRue called it "absolutely unbelievable" in a WTHB interview last year.

RHP Yohan Ramirez
23-year old Dominican pitcher who's listed at 6'4 190 lbs. Started the year at QC where as part of the tandem he K'd 62 in 58 IP but also walked 28. The latter has been an issue for him during his 3 years in the organization evidenced by the career BB rate of 12.7%. Midseason he was moved up to BC where he was moved to the bullpen--we'll have to wait until 2019 to find out if that was just a temporary move or a more permanent one due to his lack of control (besides all the walks, he also led the system this year in plunks with 12). But the velocity noted previously for him (sitting 95-96, topping 98-99) makes him interesting. At least for now. If you read the 2080baseball.com summary on him you saw this: "Middle relief ceiling--despite power fastball, lacks the control or secondary pitches for true leverage situations. Risk to profile, will fall short of ceiling if he can't improve delivery or throw more strikes."

OF Jake Meyers
Defensively, the Omaha native whose parents gave him the middle name "Berkshire" is solid in CF. On the bat side, he didn't show much pop in college (he hit just 3 longballs in 2+ seasons) and while he's shown a bit more power as a pro it's questionable whether that's ever going to be one of his strengths. But if you're an optimist and believe the former 13th round pick can develop into a 10+ homers a season player, then combined with his on-base skills (had a 10.4% walk rate this season which increased to 12.0% after being promoted to BC) and defensive value he could be a very interesting guy. Reports say the former Husker is a 70 runner so his 53% success rate in 30 steal attempts this season indicates work is needed on his baserunning skills (he confirmed that in an interview with the QC Times back in June).

OF Corey Julks
More "what if" time. As previously noted, the former Coog has retooled his swing to get a better launch angle. That's not exactly unique for players these days though I sense his might have been more radical than most (or at least a more difficult transition). It seems it might finally be producing results, going from .259/.341/.379 in the season's first half to .282/.362/.458 in the second half. That's particularly impressive given the second half was spent at BC after the promotion from QC. Things seemed to particularly click in August when he posted a .305/.373/.543 line over his last 27 regular season games with 10 doubles and 5 homers. He added another HR in the 1st round of the CL playoffs. His batted ball data also seems to support a better swing approach, with his GB% declining from 45.5% in 2017 at TRC to 42.1% at QC and 39.2% at BC. And there was a particularly dramatic decline in his popups (31.3% to 23.2% to 16.9%). If you believe the swing change improvements are permanent, then his blend of power + speed (see above: one of only 11 minor leaguers this year with 30 steals and 10+ HRs) coupled with his selective approach at the plate (10.8% BB rate at BC, 10.5% overall this season) make for a very attractive offensive performer. Defensively, the 22-year old Julks has only started 4 games in CF over his first 2 seasons in the organization. Somewhat puzzling as rotating minor league OFs through all 3 positions in the grass tends to be more the organizational norm so as to give players as much experience as possible and better evaluate them in game situations. Or maybe not so puzzling: after a game last year at TRC in which Julks dropped a FB while playing RF, Morgan Ensberg described him as "more of a left fielder". Ugh.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #77 on: September 20, 2018, 09:59:59 am »
BA doing their Top 20 Prospects by League, starting off today with the PCL.

Kyle Tucker at #1, Yordan Alvarez at #6 and Josh James at #16.

Exes: Ramon Laureano at #12 (calling the trade for Brandon Bailey the "steal of the offseason").
« Last Edit: September 20, 2018, 10:09:12 am by Nate Colbert »

geezerdonk

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Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #78 on: September 20, 2018, 01:28:16 pm »
That list is already superannuated, at least as far as James is concerned.
E come vivo? Vivo.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #79 on: September 20, 2018, 01:48:34 pm »
BA Top 30 Astros Prospects:

2010 #24
2011 #23
2012 #21

so he didn't exactly shoot up the charts with a bullet.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #80 on: September 20, 2018, 01:50:32 pm »
BA doing their Top 20 Prospects by League, starting off today with the PCL.

Kyle Tucker at #1, Yordan Alvarez at #6 and Josh James at #16.

Exes: Ramon Laureano at #12 (calling the trade for Brandon Bailey the "steal of the offseason").

I'm going to choose to view Laureano situation as a matter of having too much OF talent in the system you can never have too much pitching. (Bailey).

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #81 on: September 20, 2018, 04:43:54 pm »
BA doing their Top 20 Prospects by League, starting off today with the PCL.

Kyle Tucker at #1, Yordan Alvarez at #6 and Josh James at #16.

Exes: Ramon Laureano at #12 (calling the trade for Brandon Bailey the "steal of the offseason").

From the chat this afternoon:

Al (Austin): Any consideration for other Grizzlies Trent Thornton, Rogelio Armenteros and Garrett Stubbs?

Kyle Glaser: Yes. What pushed them out is everyone in the PCL Top 20 projects in an everyday role, while Armenteros, Thornton and Stubbs all project as big leaguers but in a situational role. Armenteros is 90-92, top 94 and doesn’t spin the ball well, so he’s not a starter, but his fastball and ridiculous changeup are enough for him to be a good bullpen piece. Thornton projects as a long man and Stubbs as a part-time catcher, mostly because he hasn’t shown he can hold up under a starter’s workload and few believe he can. All good players, all have a chance to be capable major leaguers, but the guys ahead of them are expected to be more prominent and impactful.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #82 on: September 21, 2018, 02:06:31 am »
Jim Callis in response to a question about the top 3 pitching farm systems:

[After naming the Padres and Braves as the top 2]

"Settling on the third-best pitching system is a tough call between the Astros, Rays, Tigers and Yankees. Houston and New York have the deepest crops of mound talent among that group, but I'm going to give a very slight edge to Tampa Bay."

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-under-the-radar-prospects-to-watch-in-afl/c-295333936?tid=151437456

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #83 on: September 24, 2018, 06:37:13 pm »
BA with the AA lists this week. Eastern League Top 20 list was today and ex Daz Cameron was ranked 7th. Former Astros' progeny Ke'Bryan Hayes (#4) and Cavan Biggio (#14) also showed up on the list.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #84 on: September 26, 2018, 02:15:50 pm »
Sickels has a writeup today on Kit Scheetz:

Quote
He was impressive enough in the Texas League that he’s being mentioned as a possible bullpen asset over the next year or two.

His fastball is in the upper-80s, maybe a tad faster than in college but not by much. He has both two-seam and four-seam types and is adept at coaxing grounders. He mixes in a curveball and slider, and he has an unusual arm angle that adds some deception. He throws strikes and one source describes him as “utterly fearless” on the mound.

All told, Scheetz projects as a viable bullpen lefty and could get a shot within the next year or two if he continues pitching like this.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/9/26/17902332/thoughts-on-houston-astros-prospect-kit-scheetz

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #85 on: September 27, 2018, 11:22:41 am »
BA with the AA lists this week. Eastern League Top 20 list was today and ex Daz Cameron was ranked 7th. Former Astros' progeny Ke'Bryan Hayes (#4) and Cavan Biggio (#14) also showed up on the list.

And the Texas League Top 20 list out today: Yordan Alvarez (#4), Corbin Martin (#8) and Cionel Perez (#11) were all on it.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #86 on: September 28, 2018, 11:50:02 am »
Terrific article from Jim Callis on instructs (list of players attending in the fall/winter ball thread) and of course the head-turners are the hurlers:

  • RHP Jayson Schroder  has an "up to 97 mph [FB] with heavy sink, flashes a pair of solid breaking pitches and is starting to develop a changeup".
  • RHP R.J. Freure with the "hammer curveball and a fastball that topped out at 96 mph" and is looking to lose weight. As has been previously noted for him and a quoted Pete Putila reinforces, the stuff plays but strike-throwing still a work in process.
  • RHP Mark Moclair racks up his massive number of strikeouts to a high spin rate CB.
  • RHP J.P. France gets a Will Harris comp from Putila with his low 90s FB featuring "natural cut" to go along with his CB.
  • RHP Manny Ramirez cited for his explosive arm and a FB sitting 95-97.
  • Position player to pitcher conversion Antonio Nunez has a fastball that touches 98. Putila: "It's something we haven't done a great job historically with, so we're trying to be more diligent finding position guys with arm strength to try on the mound."

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-instructs-full-of-impressive-pitchers/c-296346636?tid=151437456

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #87 on: September 28, 2018, 12:08:38 pm »
Brandon Bielak (#14) and JJ Matijevic (#19) on the Carolina League Top 20 Prospects list from BA. JB Bukauskas and Jairo Solis were noted as not having enough appearances to qualify.

From the chat, apparently Tyler Ivey wasn't far off from making the list. Scouts still like Jonathan Arauz's glove even while the bat remains a huge question mark.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2018, 03:15:46 pm by Nate Colbert »

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #88 on: October 03, 2018, 03:52:22 pm »
MLB.com did their midseason re-shuffle of their Top 100 Prospect rankings. Tucker moves up from #17 in their preseason rankings to #10 currently, Whitley drops slightly from #9 to #11 and Yordan Alvarez moves on to the list at #54.

And now they have their end of season Top 100 rankings:

  • 5. Tucker
  • 8. Whitley
  • 42. Alvarez
  • 95. Josh James

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects

jbm

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #89 on: October 03, 2018, 04:04:17 pm »
And now they have their end of season Top 100 rankings:

  • 5. Tucker
  • 8. Whitley
  • 42. Alvarez
  • 95. Josh James

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects
If James is still eligible for the list, slotting him at 95 is comical.  Sometimes, you just need to forget previous rankings and age considerations and just trust your eyes.  If you held a draft with only those 100, he's going in the first round.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #90 on: October 03, 2018, 07:56:47 pm »
If James is still eligible for the list, slotting him at 95 is comical.  Sometimes, you just need to forget previous rankings and age considerations and just trust your eyes.  If you held a draft with only those 100, he's going in the first round.
How many of that top 100 have a chance to impact the postseason this year?
You may ask yourself, "How do I work this?"

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #91 on: October 09, 2018, 06:32:11 pm »
BA with their Top 20 NYPL Prospects list today.  Alex McKenna was the 7th ranked prospect in the league though the description of his future defensive role was disappointing--playable in CF in limited exposures only due to "only average speed and a fringe-average arm".

Ex Gilberto Celestino was the #1-rated prospect.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/new-york-penn-league-top-20-prospects/ (subscribers only)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #92 on: October 11, 2018, 05:14:51 pm »
An Elian Rodriguez sighting from instructs:

"The fastball worked between 91-to-94 mph with both two-seam and four-seam grips mixed in. He showed high-spin ride up in the zone on the four-seam and consistent armside run when mixing the sinker, commanding spots better to the third base side of the plate. Rodriguez’ 78-to-80 mph curveball is the separator, a pitch with above-average potential given its flashes of tight spin and sharp down action. Rodriguez is a prospect on the strength of his potential for two above-average pitches in the fastball and curve. Realistically, guys who have big stuff and struggle to find the zone like this wind up in the ‘pen, but I’ll be interested to see if Rodriguez can turn a corner next year—and if he’ll start 2019 with a full-season club after a slow crawl through the lowest rungs of Houston’s system."

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/elian-rodriguez/


And a Matt Ruppenthal sighting as well:
  • FB 90-92; Has shown more than low-90s in the past. Elevates often to take advantage of quality FB ride due to high spin rate.
  • CB 80-82; Hard spin, tight rotation, shapely down action. Separator, has a feel for it, big league breaking ball.
  • FB/CB primary two pitches. Very aggressive with CB, throws frequently, works with predictable FB up, CB down approach.

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/matt-ruppenthal/


Also a report on Mark Moclair:
  • FB 93-95; Above-avg velo, consistent mid-90s. Late hop up in the zone, limited lateral movement otherwise.
  • CB 78-80; Tight spin with sharp bite and above-avg depth. Big league curveball.
  • CH 84-85; Third pitch, but in his mix. Shows it more to lefties, flashes dive action down to armside.
  • SUMMARY: Showed interesting three-pitch mix in a quick instructs look, want to see more. Fits middle relief profile.

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/mark-moclair-instructs-notes/


Video only on a number of other players:
The video on DeJuneas was actually from a Carolina League playoff back on Sep. 5 rather than from instructs.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #93 on: October 11, 2018, 05:31:29 pm »
Found some add'l info on Saldana here at https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/abdiel-saldana/ and am modifying the earlier writeup I did on him accordingly:

RHP Abdiel Saldana
The smallish (he's listed at 5'11") Panamanian has spent 5 years with the Astros but is still just 22. Excellent numbers this year for BC with 100 punchouts and just 26 free passes in 108 innings. And he allowed just 1 HR all season. Not surprising then that he led the minor leagues with a 2.38 FIP (minimum: 100 IP). 90-92 FB, 83-84 SL, 77 CB, 85-86 CH. Apparently that changeup is quite the killer--teammate Carson LaRue called it "absolutely unbelievable" in a WTHB interview last year.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #94 on: October 12, 2018, 10:29:36 pm »
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/using-fly-ball-distance-to-find-sleeper-prospects/

I have a number of problems with certain aspects of the article but overall an interesting attempt to correlate avg FB distance and player age versus future major league success. From an Astros' fan perspective, the section on "Double-A FB Dist+ & Age" would be of most interest. You get your Yordan Alvarez accolades plus you see Andy Pineda identified as a sleeper prospect. That's of course the V-Cats outfielder who spent 16 games and 71 plate appearances with the Hooks. Which would seem an awfully small sample size to be drawing an inference on but what the heck do I know.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #95 on: October 15, 2018, 03:25:37 pm »
BA with their Top 20 GCL Prospects list today. SS Freudis Nova comes in at #8 on the list.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/gulf-coast-league-top-20-prospects/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #96 on: October 18, 2018, 06:10:50 pm »
From today's MLB Pipeline Q&A:

Question: Which Arizona Fall League player not currently in the top 100 do you anticipate making the biggest jump into the rankings?

Jim Callis: My answer to this one is that Astros right-hander J.B. Bukasukas should make the biggest leap next year among AFL players not on our Top 100 Prospects list. Now that he's healthy, Bukauskas could advance rapidly. It's still uncertain whether he'll be a starter or reliever in the long run, but if he can harness his impressive stuff he should make an impact in either role.

https://www.mlb.com/news/afl-players-likely-to-make-next-years-top-100/c-298099314?tid=151437456

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #97 on: October 19, 2018, 12:44:59 am »
Asked about other guys who have stood out thus in Arizona Fall League...
   
Quote
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, Trammell looks as expected (which is good), Abraham Toro-Hernandez and Luis Barrera have been terrific. Lots of guys, it’s a great league.


This shit is almost becoming boring regards Whitley...

Quote
Eric A Longenhagen: Have seen him twice: 93-97 t98 with big downhill plane, plus-plus changeup in the low-80s with vertical action. 11-5 curveball is a 60, slider and cutter each flash 60. Doesn’t have surgical command but he locates his stuff in general areas where they’ll play (the cutter is always to his glove side and when it misses, it misses off the plate away where he can’t get hurt, etc.) He has monster stuff.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-chat-10-18-18/
« Last Edit: October 19, 2018, 01:19:45 am by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #98 on: October 24, 2018, 07:46:43 pm »
The takeaway might disappoint some but I think a fairly positive view on Ronnie Dawson based on looks in the AFL:

"Lacks bat for everyday role on contender. Ideal 4th-OF with ability to play all three OF positions and contribute adequate offense in bench role."

https://2080baseball.com/reports/ronnie-dawson-2/


And a not so optimistic take on JBB, again based on recent looks in the AFL:

"Mid-rotation stuff but lacks command and durability to profile in rotation. Leans heavily on secondaries to turn lineups over; will struggle third time through lineup; best fits leverage, multi-inning RP role where he can handle innings load."

https://2080baseball.com/reports/j-b-bukauskas/
« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 08:05:59 pm by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #99 on: October 26, 2018, 07:12:07 pm »
Interesting quote from Mike Elias re Ronnie Dawson:

"(Dawson) has taken his speed and gone from, frankly, someone that we viewed as just an OK left fielder in college to now a really good minor league center fielder,” Elias said. "It gives him more bandwidth in terms of moving up the chain if he can play center field. It gives him more margin for error with the bat.”

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ronnie-dawson-emerges-as-all-around-threat/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #100 on: October 27, 2018, 03:13:49 pm »
Callis on Erasmo Pinales:

"...has some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup. He's still figuring out command and control..."

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-arizona-fall-league-forrest-whitley/c-299734654?tid=151437456

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #101 on: November 03, 2018, 06:37:34 pm »
More scouting reports from 2080baseball.com based on looks in the AFL:

Trent Thornton--"Three solid pitches, but lacks CH for rotation or true out pitch for leverage relief role. Fits as a low-leverage longman able to go multiple innings."

Abe Toro--"Bat-first profile will play with plus hit-tool. Not a masher, but hitting ability will get him to 15-20 HR. Top of lineup type bat with defensive liabilities at 3B, could potentially fit in LF. To reach ceiling will need to adjust approach to better pitching and player shows feel to do so."

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #102 on: November 10, 2018, 05:58:23 pm »
Interesting tidbits on Abe Toro in this read from MLB.com on his AFL play:

At the plate:
Quote
From the left side, the Astros' No. 21 prospect wanted to work on hitting the ball to the opposite field. From the right side, Toro said his goal was to elevate the ball more...

In the field:
Quote
After catching a bit at Seminole State College, Toro logged 15 games behind the plate in 2017. He's spent the bulk of his career (207 games) at third, but also appeared at second base in a game. "I think it's going to be huge," Toro said of his ability to play multiple positions. "I've talked with the Astros and they kind of want me -- maybe some second baseman, some third and you never know, maybe catching again. I try to work everywhere in BP."

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #103 on: November 11, 2018, 10:23:37 pm »
Interesting thread from the pitching guru in which he cites Brandon Bailey...

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 2 hours ago
Since Jason was man enough to bring out the hot take, let me throw some grease on the fire: Downhill plane is a load of horseshit and if anything is probably negatively correlated with success.

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 2 hours ago
A college coach who has been on the launch angle train for years (who also produces tons of pros / big leaguers) told me that short, "uphill" arms who throw at the top of the zone with high spin kill his hitters.

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 2 hours ago
You'll also note that the Houston Astros traded for @BBailey_19 and gave up Laureano for him, which was a big piece. Brandon shoved at Gonzaga and for Y-D yet was a 6th rounder - because he's a short RHP. He has high spin and good velocity. Look at his pro stats. Hmm...

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 1 hour ago
I had a scout tell me that he wanted to draft Brandon - said he thought he was a top 5 pitcher in college - but he couldn't turn him in because his boss didn't allow him to turn in guys who were under 6 feet tall. This was a so-called "smart" team, by the way.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #104 on: November 12, 2018, 09:23:21 am »
Interesting thread from the pitching guru in which he cites Brandon Bailey...

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 2 hours ago
Since Jason was man enough to bring out the hot take, let me throw some grease on the fire: Downhill plane is a load of horseshit and if anything is probably negatively correlated with success.

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 2 hours ago
A college coach who has been on the launch angle train for years (who also produces tons of pros / big leaguers) told me that short, "uphill" arms who throw at the top of the zone with high spin kill his hitters.

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 2 hours ago
You'll also note that the Houston Astros traded for @BBailey_19 and gave up Laureano for him, which was a big piece. Brandon shoved at Gonzaga and for Y-D yet was a 6th rounder - because he's a short RHP. He has high spin and good velocity. Look at his pro stats. Hmm...

Kyle Boddy @drivelinebases 1 hour ago
I had a scout tell me that he wanted to draft Brandon - said he thought he was a top 5 pitcher in college - but he couldn't turn him in because his boss didn't allow him to turn in guys who were under 6 feet tall. This was a so-called "smart" team, by the way.

Good stuff, Nate.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #105 on: November 12, 2018, 12:57:59 pm »
Yes, thanks Nate. 

While I absolutely love the phrase that "Downhill plane is a load of horseshit," I suspect that downhill plane is just downhill plane, like zig is just zig, but becomes a thing when it enters the world of zag. 

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #106 on: November 15, 2018, 11:58:15 am »
An Astros' Top 30 Prospects list from Prospects Live, perhaps most notable for the highest ranking yet seen for Bryan Abreu at #11.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #107 on: November 16, 2018, 09:35:04 am »
Whitley's final AFL #s;  In 26 AFL innings, Whitley had a 2.42 ERA. He struck out 36 and walked 7. Opponents hit .179 against him

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #108 on: November 16, 2018, 05:18:19 pm »
Adding the Prospects Live Top 30 list to this...

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (9)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--28
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #109 on: November 17, 2018, 04:19:47 pm »
MLB Pipeline did a bit of shuffling of their Astros Top 30 list as a result of the Thornton trade (although for some reason they still have Randy Cesar on their list). So who joined? None other than Ronnie Dawson, who was #15 on their 2018 preaseason list and then was dropped completely when they did the midseason update. He's back on at #20.

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (2)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (9)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--27
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #110 on: November 19, 2018, 10:47:22 am »
And MLB Pipeline with another shuffle of their Astros Top 30 list, getting rid of Randy Cesar and moving Peter Solomon on to the list at Cesar's former spot at #26.

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/Sickels
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (7)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--26
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #111 on: November 19, 2018, 09:40:09 pm »
Prospects Live also updated their their Astros Top 30 list to account for Randy Cesar and Trent Thornton leaving the organization, adding  Peter Solomon (#29) and Jeremy Pena (#30) in the process.

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--26
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #112 on: November 23, 2018, 04:44:12 pm »
BA ranked the top 12 prospects in the Arizona Fall League (while reiterating that the group of players this year was one of the strongest in the 27-year history of the league). Whitley came in at #2 (behind Vlad Jr.) while JBB was 9th. They also identified another 8 players who most improved their prospect status in AFL play and Abe Toro was included in that group.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #113 on: November 26, 2018, 10:50:49 am »
BA has a midseason update to their Astros Top 10 Prospects list:

1. Whitley
2. Tucker
3. Alvarez
4. Corbin Martin
5. Solis
6. Nova
7. Hector Perez
8. Bukauskas
9. Beer
10. Cionel Perez

A new list from BA:

1. Whitley
2. Tucker
3. Alvarez
4. James
5. Corbin Martin
6. JBB
7. Framber
8. Nova
9. Beer
10. Bryan Abreu

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #114 on: November 27, 2018, 09:43:02 am »
BA ranked the top 12 prospects in the Arizona Fall League (while reiterating that the group of players this year was one of the strongest in the 27-year history of the league). Whitley came in at #2 (behind Vlad Jr.) while JBB was 9th.

And MLB Pipeline with their Top 25 AFL Prospects: Whitley #2 and JBB #16.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #115 on: November 27, 2018, 10:19:31 am »
JJ Cooper's chat on the BA list.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-houston-astros-top-10-mlb-prospects-chat/

For the record, I had two questions answered (which just shows you how few people participated).
Boom!

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #116 on: November 27, 2018, 11:53:30 am »
The takeaway might disappoint some but I think a fairly positive view on Ronnie Dawson based on looks in the AFL:

"Lacks bat for everyday role on contender. Ideal 4th-OF with ability to play all three OF positions and contribute adequate offense in bench role."

https://2080baseball.com/reports/ronnie-dawson-2/

Different evaluator w/more optimistic take (again based on looks in AFL):

"Well-rounded set of average tools fit an everyday profile if he can remain in CF. Lacks a carry tool for a full regular's profile on a corner, will be a 4th OF if he moves down the defensive spectrum. Floor is more attractive than ceiling, but a safe bet to contribute at ML level."

https://2080baseball.com/reports/ronnie-dawson/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #117 on: November 29, 2018, 12:06:55 pm »
2080baseball.com with their 1st and 2nd All-AFL teams ("the best mix of prospect value and AFL statistical performance at each position"). Whitley and JBB on 1st team while Toro and Dawson were on the 2nd team.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #118 on: December 04, 2018, 11:28:46 am »
Mini-scouting report on Akeem Bostick from 2080.com. Some of their comments:

Quote
FB 91-95 (92-93); Touches 95 as a starter and has the body/arm-stroke to throw harder in short stints. Live ball that gets on hitters quickly, late hop to armside. Control over command type, gets FB over the plate but often center cuts or elevates.

SUMMARY: Physical righty with live arm and four-pitch mix. Best-case scenario of a true back-rotation starter, though he’ll need more seasoning to get there by developing command and third pitch. Intriguing to imagine him in a relief role, perhaps as a multi-inning opener type.

Interestingly, elsewhere on their website they actually list Bostick as one of the top arms available in the Rule 5.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #119 on: December 04, 2018, 03:17:46 pm »
Goin' for a bus ride.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #120 on: December 04, 2018, 03:24:51 pm »
Is this his third rule 5 eligible draft?

I believe his 2nd.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #121 on: December 13, 2018, 11:53:56 am »
Scratching off Riley Ferrell...

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--25
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #122 on: December 13, 2018, 06:13:44 pm »
MLB Pipeline removed Ferrell from their Top 30 list. They in turn (finally) added Bryan Abreu, all the way up at the #10 spot.

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena.......................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--25
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 12/13/18)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #123 on: December 14, 2018, 03:35:07 pm »
MLB Pipeline removed Ferrell from their Top 30 list. They in turn (finally) added Bryan Abreu, all the way up at the #10 spot.

Easy to forget that there are a lot of really interesting names on the bottom half of that list (e.g. Tyler Ivey, Peter Solomon).  Perhaps I'm simply ever the optimist, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are some big jumps in the rankings next year similar to Bryan Abreu's.
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #124 on: January 03, 2019, 12:02:58 pm »
BAlso mentioned the following as rising prospects:
  • Johanse Torres--way too old for DSL but "95-99 FB and a potentially plus slider are worth paying attention to"

In their annual list of "Century Club" rankings, Baseball America lists Torres as one of 3 junior stros who reached triple digits this past season (Reymin Guduan and Josh James the others). FWIW, 62 pitchers in total made the list (compared to 81 in 2017).



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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #125 on: January 06, 2019, 02:02:02 pm »
A roundup of comments on 19-year old INF Luis Santana, one of three Mets' minor leaguers acquired in today's JD Davis trade:

Eric Longenhagen @longenhagen 1h ago
Luis Santana was going to be 10th on the Mets list that will still drop tomorrow. We really like the bat and think he stays on the middle infield.

eithlaw  @keithlaw 1h ago
Santana’s interesting for a smaller guy, with a potentially plus hit tool. Shrewd pickup for Houston.

Ben Badler @BenBadler 1h ago
Big fan of Luis Santana going to the Astros. Young, hard-nosed 2B with great-hand eye who knows the strike zone and barrels it up consistently.


From the MLB Pipeline writeup:

Quote
here have been enough players, especially middle infielders, who have overcome the "undersized" label to have Major League success. That's why it might be a mistake to overlook the 5-foot-8 Santana, who was having a huge United States debut in the Appalachian League after two summers in the Dominican Summer League.

Two things stand out for the second baseman: his knack for contact and his high-energy play. His career has been brief, but he's always hit, with a quick swing and very few strikeouts. He might never be a huge power guy, but he is capable of driving the ball with more strength than you'd expect, and he already is showing a very advanced approach at the plate and a willingness to draw walks. He's an average runner who should be capable enough at second defensively.

Santana loves to compete and his makeup, when combined with his hit tool, gave the Mets confidence to jump him over the Gulf Coast League up to the Appy League in 2018, where he was one of the league's best hitters. That ability to swing the bat should carry him up the ladder, and if he can maintain that approach, a future as an everyday offensive-minded second baseman awaits.

« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 03:49:30 pm by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #126 on: January 06, 2019, 03:31:07 pm »
The Altuve Cloning Experiment (“ACE”) proceeds.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #127 on: January 06, 2019, 04:51:52 pm »
Luis Santana enters the MLB Pipeline Top 30 list at #22. OF Ross Adolph, one of the other prospects coming in the JD Davis trade, added at #30. Pitchers Brandon Bailey and Brett Adcock dropped off the list.

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena.......................FG/MP/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/Sickels/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (20)
2B Luis Santana.....................MP
OF Ross Adolph......................MP
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
LHP Brett Adcock...................Sickels
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--24
LHP--6
C--5
2B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--9


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/6/19)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 04:53:52 pm by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #128 on: January 06, 2019, 10:51:27 pm »
Luis Santana enters the MLB Pipeline Top 30 list at #22. OF Ross Adolph, one of the other prospects coming in the JD Davis trade, added at #30. Pitchers Brandon Bailey and Brett Adcock dropped off the list.

Seems to me they lose credibility when they do this ... Bailey & Adcock were 27 & 28 before the trade.  How did the trade affect their prospect status such that they fell below Peña & McKenna?
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #129 on: January 07, 2019, 07:58:01 pm »
Some comments on the two other players received in the JD Davis trade with Ross Adolph first...

MLB Pipeline
After having multiple knee surgeries earlier in his career, Adolph led the Mid-American Conference and set a Toledo record with 15 homers in 2018. Adolph offers both plus raw power and speed. He has the strength to drive the ball out the park to all fields, with most of his present power coming to his pull side, though he'll need to tighten his strike zone to hit for average against more advanced pitching. While teams were wary of his medical history, he's still quick and has the upside of a 20-20 player. Despite his quickness, Adolph is still a work in progress defensively. He played center field for the Rockets and saw duty at all three outfield spots in his first season in pro ball. He has an average arm and probably fits best in a corner.

Baseball America
The lefthanded-hitting Adolph is a grinding outfielder who can play all three outfield positions and shows above-average raw power. He is prone to striking out, but he takes competitive at-bats and makes hard contact when he connects. He even showed speed with 12 triples and 14 stolen bases at Brooklyn.

Fangraphs
Adolph,22, is an interesting small-school sleeper who hit .322/.445/.654 as a junior at Toledo, then signed for $125,000 as a 2018 12th rounder. He continued to rake at short-season Brooklyn after signing, hitting .276/.348/.509 and swiping 14 bases (on 17 attempts) in 60 games. He’s an above-average runner with good instincts in center field, and there’s a chance he can stay there. He could be a 50 bat with gap power who is playable in center, which would make him at least a viable big league fourth outfielder.  We whiffed on him pre-draft but our sources who saw him in pro ball raved and I’m very interested to see how he hits in full-season ball next year because I think the industry’s error bars on small school bats are pretty large due to the quality of pitching they face.

Prospects Live
He’s a solid defensive centerfielder, with some power and the ability to run. At the plate he sets up at the back of the batter’s box, slightly closed, hands in with his bat on his shoulder. This allows Adolph to turn on fastballs in on his hand and drive them to his pull side. More than likely system depth in the end, but Adolph has enough skills to fight for the big leagues one day.


And now Scott Manea...

Baseball America
[Scott] Manea is an offensive-minded catcher with pull-side power who is working to improve his receiving and catch and throw skills. He packs solid-average raw power in his bulky 5-foot-11, 216-pound frame and controls the strike zone well, limiting his strikeouts. He's physically maxed out and not particularly athletic behind the plate, which limits his ability to improve defensively. He caught in only 65 of the 100 games he played at Columbia, although he showed arm strength by throwing out 37 percent of attempted basestealers.

Fangraphs
Manea, 23, was drafted by Seattle out of high school but didn’t sign. He transferred to St. Petersburg College in Florida after his freshman year at NC State, but wasn’t drafted after his sophomore year despite being eligible. He had a good summer for the Wachusett Dirt Dawgs of the Futures Collegiate Baseball League and was eligible to sign as an undrafted free agent, which he did with the Mets in late July of 2016. He’s a heavy-bodied catcher with power who hit .261/.368/.432 at Low-A Columbia last year. Manea’s a below-average receiver who lets his target sag as his pitcher starts to deliver the ball home, which means he has to come back to that spot with his glove, creating a lot of unnecessary movement that isn’t great for stealing strikes. He’s also a well-below average athlete and thrower, so he probably can’t catch.

Prospects Live
The 2018 season was a breakout for Manea as he made strides both at the plate and behind it. He hit career highs in nearly every statistical category, trading in some walks for a massive increase in pull-side power. Another profile on the upswing, but more than likely a system depth player.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #130 on: January 08, 2019, 10:48:31 am »
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #131 on: January 08, 2019, 12:12:59 pm »
Another write up/perspective on Adolph, for whatever it's worth:

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2018/10/24/18003606/2018-best-prospects-cf-ross-adolph-brooklyn-cyclones

I saw Adolph play a lot here in Toledo. Toledo Coach Mee really likes him. The problem with MAC baseball is that every team usually only has one good college pitcher, so pitching is very thin in the MAC. Therefore, it's hard to judge a player here. However, out of all of the kids I've seen here for the past five years, Adolph's probably the best player of the bunch. I think that it's cool as shit that a University of Toledo kid is in the Astros system.
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #132 on: January 08, 2019, 04:49:45 pm »
Prospects Live updates their list adding Santana at #14  while dropping off Jeremy Pena...

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey...............FG/Sickels/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
2B Luis Santana......................MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena.......................FG/MP
SS Miguelangel Sierra............BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado................BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry.......................BP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (19)
OF Ross Adolph......................MP
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
LHP Brett Adcock...................Sickels
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--24
LHP--6
C--5
2B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--9


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/6/19)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #135 on: January 23, 2019, 09:00:29 am »
And now they have MLB Pipeline with their end of season Top 100 rankings:

  • 5. Tucker
  • 8. Whitley
  • 42. Alvarez
  • 95. Josh James

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects

And now BP with their list:

  • 7. Whitley
  • 14. Tucker
  • 46. Josh James
  • 49. Alvarez
  • 80. JBB

And now BA:

5. Forrest Whitley
12. Kyle Tucker
34. Yordan Alvarez
77. Josh James
78. Corbin Martin

Notes on the BA rankings:
*Nine organizations account for nearly 60% of the list: Padres (9), Rays (9), Braves [8], Blue Jays (7), Astros (5), White Sox (5), Cardinals (5), Reds (5), Dodgers (5).
*Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs all had zero prospects on the list.
*JBB one of the "last, last cuts" according to one of the BA writers.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2019, 12:41:36 pm by Nate Colbert »

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #136 on: January 26, 2019, 09:25:46 pm »
And now BP with their list:

  • 7. Whitley
  • 14. Tucker
  • 46. Josh James
  • 49. Alvarez
  • 80. JBB

And now BA:

5. Forrest Whitley
12. Kyle Tucker
34. Yordan Alvarez
77. Josh James
78. Corbin Martin

Notes on the BA rankings:
*Nine organizations account for nearly 60% of the list: Padres (9), Rays (9), Braves [8], Blue Jays (7), Astros (5), White Sox (5), Cardinals (5), Reds (5), Dodgers (5).
*Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs all had zero prospects on the list.
*JBB one of the "last, last cuts" according to one of the BA writers.

MLB Pipeline with their preseason Top 100 rankings:

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
8. Kyle Tucker, OF
44. Yordan Alvarez, OF
62. Josh James, RHP
81. Corbin Martin, RHP
97. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP

Notes on the MLBP rankings:
*Houston 3rd among all organizations with the most prospects on the list behind the Padres (10) and Braves [8] and tied with the ChiSox (6) and Rays (6).
*In terms of MLBP's prospect point rankings (which give more weight to the best prospects), the Astros ranked 5th while other prospective playoff teams ranked far behind (Dodgers 11th, Cardinals 17th, Indians 19th, Brewers 23rd, Yankees 24th, Red Sox 28th and Cubs 29th) suggesting Houston has more ammunition to make trade deadline deals.
*The Astros were 2nd only to the Braves with 4 RHPs on the list.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #137 on: January 28, 2019, 08:09:42 pm »
Dropping Sickels since he's lost his Vox Media platform and announced recently he wouldn't be doing org Top 20 lists. Adding Prospects 1500 which does a Top 50 org list and has been around for 3 years now...

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Jonathan Arauz..................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Seth Beer...........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Josh James.......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bielak...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
3B Joe Perez.............................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Dean Deetz......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
LHP Framber Valdez...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Cristian Javier..................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Myles Straw.......................BA/BP/MP/PL/1500

4 Prospect Lists (7)
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/PL/1500
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/PL/1500
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/PL/1500
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL/1500
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL/1500

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Brandon Bailey...............FG/PL/1500
2B Luis Santana......................MP/PL/1500
SS Jeremy Pena.......................FG/MP/1500

2 Prospect Lists (9)
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL/1500
OF Carlos Machado................BP/1500
C Nathan Perry........................BP/1500
OF Ross Adolph.......................MP/1500
LHP Reymin Guduan..............FG/1500
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte..............FG/1500
LHP Kit Scheetz.......................FG/1500
RHP Enoli Paredes..................FG/1500
SS Deury Carrasco..................FG/1500

1 Prospect List (18)
RHP Manny Ramirez...............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria...............FG
RHP Cody Deason...................FG   
RHP Luis Garcia.......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres................BA
RHP Elian Rodriguez...............BA
SS Miguelangel Sierra.............BA
UTIL Nick Tanielu....................1500
LHP Ryan Hartman.................1500
UTIL Josh Rojas........................1500
UTIL Alex De Goti....................1500
LHP Brett Adcock....................1500
RHP Chad Donato...................1500
OF Jake Meyers........................1500
RHP Cy Sneed..........................1500
RHP Akeem Bostick.................1500
1B Taylor Jones........................1500
OF Corey Julks..........................1500

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--25
LHP--6
C--2
1B--1
2B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--4
OF--11


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/6/19)
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)
1500 = Prospects 1500 Top 50 Prospects (retrieved 1/28/19)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #138 on: January 29, 2019, 10:41:15 pm »
Not exactly a shocker but JBB had the best slider in MLB Pipeline's Best Tools list for the Top 100 Prospects.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #139 on: January 30, 2019, 07:25:54 am »
Not exactly a shocker but JBB had the best slider in MLB Pipeline's Best Tools list for the Top 100 Prospects.

I didn't realize he could also touch 98 on the FB.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #140 on: January 30, 2019, 09:11:11 am »
I didn't realize he could also touch 98 on the FB.
The more I've seen players in the minors and read what is written about them, the less I read.  While Callis seems like a good guy, he's basically a tout from my race track days whose aim isn't to lead me to put money on a prospect, but to get real excited to read his next reviews.  I'll be real happy and surprised if JBB is throwing 98 with a knockout slider. 

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #141 on: January 30, 2019, 09:45:01 am »
The more I've seen players in the minors and read what is written about them, the less I read.  While Callis seems like a good guy, he's basically a tout from my race track days whose aim isn't to lead me to put money on a prospect, but to get real excited to read his next reviews.  I'll be real happy and surprised if JBB is throwing 98 with a knockout slider.

If he's working out of the bullpen you'll see it.  If he's starting you'll see the high end slider paired with a 93-95 fastball.
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #142 on: January 30, 2019, 11:54:25 am »
Is it kind of odd that despite Tucker being the 9th ranked prospect, he doesn't show up (even as an also ran) on any of the best tools list?
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #143 on: January 30, 2019, 04:25:01 pm »
And now BP with their list:

  • 7. Whitley
  • 14. Tucker
  • 46. Josh James
  • 49. Alvarez
  • 80. JBB

And now BA:

5. Forrest Whitley
12. Kyle Tucker
34. Yordan Alvarez
77. Josh James
78. Corbin Martin

Notes on the BA rankings:
*Nine organizations account for nearly 60% of the list: Padres (9), Rays (9), Braves [8], Blue Jays (7), Astros (5), White Sox (5), Cardinals (5), Reds (5), Dodgers (5).
*Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs all had zero prospects on the list.
*JBB one of the "last, last cuts" according to one of the BA writers.

MLB Pipeline with their preseason Top 100 rankings:

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
8. Kyle Tucker, OF
44. Yordan Alvarez, OF
62. Josh James, RHP
81. Corbin Martin, RHP
97. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP

Notes on the MLBP rankings:
*Houston 3rd among all organizations with the most prospects on the list behind the Padres (10) and Braves [8] and tied with the ChiSox (6) and Rays (6).
*In terms of MLBP's prospect point rankings (which give more weight to the best prospects), the Astros ranked 5th while other prospective playoff teams ranked far behind (Dodgers 11th, Cardinals 17th, Indians 19th, Brewers 23rd, Yankees 24th, Red Sox 28th and Cubs 29th) suggesting Houston has more ammunition to make trade deadline deals.
*The Astros were 2nd only to the Braves with 4 RHPs on the list.

And Keith Law with his preseason Top 100 rankings:

4. Whitley
17. Tucker
48. Martin
67. JBB
70. James

Notes on Law's rankings:
*Yordan Alvarez didn't even make his "near miss" list.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #144 on: January 30, 2019, 04:54:33 pm »
I saw he said Alvarez has an “overrated bat” in his chat earlier today.

Heck of a ranking for Martin.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #145 on: January 31, 2019, 07:57:23 am »
Scratching off Riley Ferrell...

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--25
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 11/19/18)

Solis has also had TJ.  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-jairo-solis-will-miss-entire-2019-season/

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #146 on: January 31, 2019, 08:11:36 am »
Solis has also had TJ.  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-jairo-solis-will-miss-entire-2019-season/

Don't read Rotowire or cbssports.com. Read me. You'll get your news two months sooner...

JJ Cooper in today's BA chat says Jairo Solis recently had Tommy John so adding him to the list.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #147 on: January 31, 2019, 03:59:39 pm »
Don't read Rotowire or cbssports.com. Read me. You'll get your news two months sooner...

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #148 on: February 02, 2019, 11:02:36 pm »
Eric Jagers @ericjagers 4 hours ago
Today we bid farewell to @BBailey_19 after an awesome two weeks of prep before Spring Training. How bout these @TrackManBB numbers from his live session: AVG FB spin rate- 2684 @ 93.4 mph (28.7 Bauer Units). Good for ~4.5 standard deviations above league average. Yep, that'll do.


As a point of reference, Justin Verlander's spin rate on his 4-seamer in 2018 was 2621 rpms while Ryan Pressly's spin rate last year on his 4-seamers was 2565 rpms (9th in MLB). The highest spin rate on 4-seamers in all of MLB was David Robertson at 2661 and Bailey exceeded that in his training session at Driveline. Verlander and Pressly are harder throwers than Bailey (by a couple of mph) while Robertson is almost exactly the same. FWIW, Robertson and Bailey are about the same height (5'11" and 5'10"). None of this of course tells us anything about location nor the effectiveness of pitches beyond the 4-seamer.


(For those curious, Bauer units is simply spin rate divided by velo.)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #149 on: February 03, 2019, 08:23:15 am »
Eric Jagers @ericjagers 4 hours ago
Today we bid farewell to @BBailey_19 after an awesome two weeks of prep before Spring Training. How bout these @TrackManBB numbers from his live session: AVG FB spin rate- 2684 @ 93.4 mph (28.7 Bauer Units). Good for ~4.5 standard deviations above league average. Yep, that'll do.


As a point of reference, Justin Verlander's spin rate on his 4-seamer in 2018 was 2621 rpms while Ryan Pressly's spin rate last year on his 4-seamers was 2565 rpms (9th in MLB). The highest spin rate on 4-seamers in all of MLB was David Robertson at 2661 and Bailey exceeded that in his training session at Driveline. Verlander and Pressly are harder throwers than Bailey (by a couple of mph) while Robertson is almost exactly the same. FWIW, Robertson and Bailey are about the same height (5'11" and 5'10"). None of this of course tells us anything about location nor the effectiveness of pitches beyond the 4-seamer.


(For those curious, Bauer units is simply spin rate divided by velo.)

Good stuff Nate. Now it becomes a little more clear why Luhnow & Co. were willing to give up such a good prospect in Laureano.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #150 on: February 03, 2019, 11:25:24 am »
Thankfully, Nate defined “Bauer units.”  Is it supposed to a good quality, as in more Bauer units (BUs) are better than less BUs?  My immediate reaction is that if it’s named after Bauer, the answer is no, but really, “who the hell knows.”  With the same spin, increasing velocity has to be good (my assumption), but it decreases the BU.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #151 on: February 03, 2019, 11:57:33 am »
Thankfully, Nate defined “Bauer units.”  Is it supposed to a good quality, as in more Bauer units (BUs) are better than less BUs?  My immediate reaction is that if it’s named after Bauer, the answer is no, but really, “who the hell knows.”  With the same spin, increasing velocity has to be good (my assumption), but it decreases the BU.
My limited understanding is yes, a greater BU is better because spin rates naturally increase with velocity. The BU just normalizes it.

Anyone with a greater understanding please feel free to correct me here.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #152 on: February 03, 2019, 12:05:00 pm »
Thankfully, Nate defined “Bauer units.”  Is it supposed to a good quality, as in more Bauer units (BUs) are better than less BUs?  My immediate reaction is that if it’s named after Bauer, the answer is no, but really, “who the hell knows.”  With the same spin, increasing velocity has to be good (my assumption), but it decreases the BU.

I had the same thought. These articles at Driveline explain the velo–spin relationship pretty well. They also help explain a bit of why Giles’ fastball seemed so hittable.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #153 on: February 03, 2019, 12:14:30 pm »
I had the same thought. These articles at Driveline explain the velo–spin relationship pretty well. They also help explain a bit of why Giles’ fastball seemed so hittable.

It didn't just seem hittable.
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But the future has to change - and to change I've got to destroy
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #154 on: February 03, 2019, 12:18:40 pm »
It didn't just seem hittable.

So did Luhnow not trust his own stuff?

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #155 on: February 03, 2019, 12:37:17 pm »
Thanks for the articles. I’ve always know that not all fastballs are equal, but needed learning on the spin rate phenomena and it’s effect on batters. I think there’s an interesting discussion on whether the high spin rate is useful in itself, or only useful in a world of average lower spin rates.  Basically like the unusual arm angle advantage: it’s good to be an outlier as people don’t handle you well.

The most convincing data to me is the velo of the batted ball as I view preventing hard contact as a primary goal of a pitcher. I see that spin rates correlate well with increasing swing and miss (a surefire way to prevent contact), but I’d also like to see if there’s a correlation with spin rate and lower velo off the bat as well. Probably is, but I’m not sure. Similarly, I’d like to see BUs correlated with velo off the bat as well. 

Basically, to MP’s point, until BUs are correlated with effective pitching, I’m not sure what is gained in by normalizing those two measurements.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #156 on: February 03, 2019, 01:00:02 pm »
Quick 2018 BU calculations for Astros pitchers, including some recent departures and new arrivals. These are for 4-seamers only, so don't read into the numbers for guys like McCullers/Harris/Keuchel/Miley who rely on other fastballs:

27.56 Verlander
27.26 Harris
26.78 Pressly
25.58 Deetz
25.24 Osuna
25.13 McCullers
25.02 McHugh
24.98 Guduan
24.87 Peacock
24.81 Devenski
24.73 Martes (2017)
24.65 Cole
24.50 Valdez
24.38 Giles
24.38 Smith
24.33 James
24.31 Miley
24.12 Keuchel
23.35 Morton
23.12 Perez
21.08 Rondon

Small sample size warnings also apply for many of these guys, obviously. I wish we had MiLB data to help supplement these numbers. I'd sure be interested to see spin data for Whitley, Bukauskas, Martin, etc.

Also keep in mind almost all these guys are above league average—the Astros have been on the spin train for a long time.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2019, 01:05:05 pm by moriartp »

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #157 on: February 03, 2019, 01:30:40 pm »
I wish we had MiLB data to help supplement these numbers. I'd sure be interested to see spin data for Whitley, Bukauskas, Martin, etc.

As FG rolls out their updated team prospect lists, they're publishing this data. You can see that info here for the already-released teams & players. The Astros' info should be out in a couple of weeks.

Very, very cool shit.


moriartp

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #158 on: February 03, 2019, 01:36:16 pm »
As FG rolls out their updated team prospect lists, they're publishing this data. You can see that info here for the already-released teams & players. The Astros' info should be out in a couple of weeks.

Very, very cool shit.

Hot damn! Thanks Nate.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #159 on: February 06, 2019, 11:18:18 pm »
And Keith Law with his preseason Top 100 rankings:

4. Whitley
17. Tucker
48. Martin
67. JBB
70. James

Notes on Law's rankings:
*Yordan Alvarez didn't even make his "near miss" list.

Given he put 5 of their guys in his Top 100 list, it's a bit odd that Law chose to put the Astros at #12 in his recent rankings of farm systems. They were #13 on his list last year.

Padres, Rays, Braves and Twins were 1-4 in his rankings.

Angels were at #7, Rangers at #20, Mariners at #22 and the A's at #27.

Yankees were at #19 and Red Sox at #24.

moriartp

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #160 on: February 08, 2019, 09:37:38 am »

MusicMan

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #161 on: February 11, 2019, 09:29:54 am »
FYI, Sickels is now at The Athletic.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #162 on: February 11, 2019, 07:59:30 pm »
MLB Pipeline with their preseason Top 100 rankings:

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
8. Kyle Tucker, OF
44. Yordan Alvarez, OF
62. Josh James, RHP
81. Corbin Martin, RHP
97. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP


Sickels' Top 100 list for The Athletic looks most similar to the Pipeline list:

5. Whitley
9. Tucker
37. Alvarez
59. James
82. JBB
90. Martin

https://theathletic.com/808011/2019/02/11/john-sickels-top-100-prospects-for-2019/

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #163 on: February 13, 2019, 03:17:02 pm »
BA published their organizational  grading today...

Farm system talent rankings:

Law/ESPN......................#12
Baseball America..........# 5

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #164 on: February 13, 2019, 03:33:18 pm »
FG with their Top 130 list:

4. Whitley
10. Tucker
50. Martin
88. JBB
98. James
100. Cionel Perez
125. Alvarez


BP with their Top 100 list:

7. Whitley
14. Tucker
46. Josh James
49. Alvarez
80. JBB


And now BA with their Top 100:

5. Forrest Whitley
12. Kyle Tucker
34. Yordan Alvarez
77. Josh James
78. Corbin Martin


MLB Pipeline with their preseason Top 100 rankings:

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
8. Kyle Tucker, OF
44. Yordan Alvarez, OF
62. Josh James, RHP
81. Corbin Martin, RHP
97. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP


Sickels' Top 100 list for The Athletic looks most similar to the Pipeline list:

5. Whitley
9. Tucker
37. Alvarez
59. James
82. JBB
90. Martin


And Keith Law with his preseason Top 100 rankings:

4. Whitley
17. Tucker
48. Martin
67. JBB
70. James

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #165 on: February 13, 2019, 06:13:37 pm »
Updating for that new BP list (which apparently contained a total of 17 names)...

5 or More Prospect Lists (21)
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Jonathan Arauz..................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Seth Beer...........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Josh James.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Framber Valdez...............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
C Garrett Stubbs.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF J.J. Matijevic........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bielak...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
3B Joe Perez.............................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Dean Deetz......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Cristian Javier..................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
3B Abraham Toro....................FG/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Alex McKenna....................FG/BP/MP/PL/1500

4 Prospect Lists (7)
OF Myles Straw........................BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Ronnie Dawson..................BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Tyler Ivey..........................FG/MP/PL/1500
RHP Peter Solomon.................FG/MP/PL/1500
RHP Bryan Abreu.....................FG/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jayson Schroeder.............FG/MP/PL/1500
2B Luis Santana........................BP/MP/PL/1500

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Brandon Bailey.................FG/PL/1500
SS Jeremy Pena.........................FG/MP/1500
OF Ross Adolph.........................BP/MP/1500

2 Prospect Lists (6)
RHP Heitor Tokar......................PL/1500
LHP Reymin Guduan................FG/1500
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte................FG/1500
LHP Kit Scheetz.........................FG/1500
RHP Enoli Paredes....................FG/1500
SS Deury Carrasco....................FG/1500

1 Prospect List (20)
RHP Manny Ramirez................FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria................FG
RHP Cody Deason....................FG   
RHP Luis Garcia........................BA
RHP Johanse Torres.................BA
RHP Elian Rodriguez................BA
SS Miguelangel Sierra..............BA
UTIL Nick Tanielu.....................1500
LHP Ryan Hartman..................1500
UTIL Josh Rojas.........................1500
UTIL Alex De Goti.....................1500
LHP Brett Adcock.....................1500
RHP Chad Donato....................1500
OF Jake Meyers.........................1500
RHP Cy Sneed...........................1500
RHP Akeem Bostick..................1500
1B Taylor Jones.........................1500
OF Corey Julks...........................1500
OF Carlos Machado..................1500
C Nathan Perry.........................1500

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--25
LHP--6
C--2
1B--1
2B--1
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--4
OF--11


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 17 Prospects (retrieved 2/13/19)
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/6/19)
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)
1500 = Prospects 1500 Top 50 Prospects (retrieved 1/28/19)

WVastro

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #166 on: February 13, 2019, 10:29:37 pm »
Question for the experts, and apologies if it’s already been answered, but why the dramatically different opinions on Yordan Alvarez?

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #167 on: February 13, 2019, 10:58:43 pm »
Question for the experts, and apologies if it’s already been answered, but why the dramatically different opinions on Yordan Alvarez?

From the FG chat today:

Quote
Jackson: Yordan Alvarez didn’t rank after being high in your mid season list. What sorcery did Keith Law whisper in Eric’s ear? But for real, that’s a huge swing. What do you see now that you didn’t eight months ago.

12:08   
Eric A Longenhagen: We re-shuffled last year’s final update a bit and sent it around to teams for feedback and they almost all said to move him down, that they had him in as a DH-only.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #168 on: February 14, 2019, 03:28:37 pm »
Longenhagen and McDaniel take a stab at predicting who (not on this year's list) will make the 2020 Top 100 list. Among the Astros: Freudis Nova and Brayan Abreu.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2020-top-100/

toddthebod

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #169 on: February 14, 2019, 10:23:02 pm »
Good thing then that there's a DH spot on the Astros.
Boom!

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #170 on: February 15, 2019, 10:02:39 am »
Jim Bowden on Whitley:

Quote
I’m expecting his command to arrive this year, and when it does, he’ll immediately start being in the conversation with teammates Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole about who’s the best starter on the team, and who will be the next to win a Cy Young.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #171 on: February 15, 2019, 10:30:10 am »
Wow, that's some high praise, but his stuff is pretty sweet.  I assume by "command," he is talking more about what I'd call "repeating his delivery."  Anyways, I hope that Bowden is correct and he really does turn that corner.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #172 on: February 15, 2019, 01:03:06 pm »
Bowden with his Top 200 list in The Athletic:

4. Whitley
9. Tucker
54. James
58. Alvarez
72. Martin
121. JBB
148. Beer
150. Abreu
178. Nova
191. Framber


FG with their Top 130 list:

4. Whitley
10. Tucker
50. Martin
88. JBB
98. James
100. Cionel Perez
125. Alvarez


BP with their Top 100 list:

7. Whitley
14. Tucker
46. Josh James
49. Alvarez
80. JBB


And now BA with their Top 100:

5. Forrest Whitley
12. Kyle Tucker
34. Yordan Alvarez
77. Josh James
78. Corbin Martin


MLB Pipeline with their preseason Top 100 rankings:

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
8. Kyle Tucker, OF
44. Yordan Alvarez, OF
62. Josh James, RHP
81. Corbin Martin, RHP
97. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP


Sickels' Top 100 list for The Athletic looks most similar to the Pipeline list:

5. Whitley
9. Tucker
37. Alvarez
59. James
82. JBB
90. Martin


And Keith Law with his preseason Top 100 rankings:

4. Whitley
17. Tucker
48. Martin
67. JBB
70. James

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #173 on: February 15, 2019, 01:09:24 pm »
Further to Yordan Alvarez:

"Astros 1B Yordan Alvarez had an underwhleming BP and looked heavy and stiff. A scout with whom I was sitting during BP told me they thought Alvarez was a DH-only guy."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-futures-game-was-black/
Chevy! Chevy! Astro! Astro!

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #174 on: February 21, 2019, 04:57:39 pm »
Updating for the new Top 30 list from BA in their recently-published Prospect Handbook:

5 or More Prospect Lists (25)
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Framber Valdez...............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
3B Abraham Toro....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Alex McKenna....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
C Garrett Stubbs.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF J.J. Matijevic........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bielak...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
3B Joe Perez.............................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Dean Deetz......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Tyler Ivey..........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Peter Solomon.................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Bryan Abreu.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jayson Schroeder.............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
2B Luis Santana........................BA/BP/MP/PL/1500

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Cristian Javier...................FG/MP/PL/1500
OF Myles Straw........................BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Ronnie Dawson..................BA/MP/PL/1500
SS Jeremy Pena........................FG/BA/MP/1500
OF Ross Adolph........................BA/BP/MP/1500

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Brandon Bailey.................FG/PL/1500
LHP Reymin Guduan................FG/BA/1500
SS Deury Carrasco....................FG/BA/1500

2 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Heitor Tokar......................PL/1500
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte................FG/1500
LHP Kit Scheetz.........................FG/1500
RHP Enoli Paredes....................FG/1500
RHP Manny Ramirez................FG/BA

1 Prospect List (16)
RHP Carlos Sanabria................FG
RHP Cody Deason....................FG
RHP Brady Rodgers..................BA   
UTIL Nick Tanielu.....................1500
LHP Ryan Hartman..................1500
UTIL Josh Rojas.........................1500
UTIL Alex De Goti.....................1500
LHP Brett Adcock.....................1500
RHP Chad Donato....................1500
OF Jake Meyers.........................1500
RHP Cy Sneed...........................1500
RHP Akeem Bostick..................1500
1B Taylor Jones.........................1500
OF Corey Julks...........................1500
OF Carlos Machado..................1500
C Nathan Perry.........................1500

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--23
LHP--6
C--2
1B--1
2B--1
3B--2
SS--4
UTIL--4
OF--11


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects published in Feb. 2019 as adjusted (since the list was finalized before the JD Davis trade, I chose to also include Luis Santana and Ross Adolph who were #13 and #18 respectively on BA's Mets list so in actuality we're talking 32 prospects here)
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 17 Prospects (retrieved 2/13/19)
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/6/19)
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)
1500 = Prospects 1500 Top 50 Prospects (retrieved 1/28/19)

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #175 on: February 28, 2019, 12:29:44 pm »
MLB Pipeline grades the organizations...

Farm system talent rankings:

Law/ESPN......................#12
MLB Pipeline.................# 6
Baseball America..........# 5

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #176 on: February 28, 2019, 01:06:09 pm »
Updating for the new Top 30 list from MLB Pipeline:

5 or More Prospect Lists (24)
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Framber Valdez..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
3B Abraham Toro...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
C Garrett Stubbs.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF J.J. Matijevic........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bielak...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Dean Deetz......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Tyler Ivey..........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Peter Solomon.................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Bryan Abreu.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jayson Schroeder.............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
2B Luis Santana........................BA/BP/MP/PL/1500

4 Prospect Lists (6)
OF Myles Straw........................BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Ronnie Dawson..................BA/MP/PL/1500
SS Jeremy Pena....................... FG/BA/MP/1500
OF Ross Adolph.......................BA/BP/MP/1500
3B Joe Perez.............................FG/BA/PL/1500
SS Deury Carrasco...................FG/BA/MP/1500

3 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Cristian Javier...................FG/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bailey.................FG/PL/1500
LHP Reymin Guduan................FG/BA/1500
RHP Enoli Paredes....................FG/MP/1500

2 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Heitor Tokar......................PL/1500
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte................FG/1500
LHP Kit Scheetz.........................FG/1500
RHP Manny Ramirez................FG/BA

1 Prospect List (16)
RHP Carlos Sanabria................FG
RHP Cody Deason....................FG
RHP Brady Rodgers..................BA   
UTIL Nick Tanielu.....................1500
LHP Ryan Hartman..................1500
UTIL Josh Rojas.........................1500
UTIL Alex De Goti.....................1500
LHP Brett Adcock.....................1500
RHP Chad Donato....................1500
OF Jake Meyers.........................1500
RHP Cy Sneed...........................1500
RHP Akeem Bostick..................1500
1B Taylor Jones.........................1500
OF Corey Julks...........................1500
OF Carlos Machado..................1500
C Nathan Perry.........................1500

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--23
LHP--6
C--2
1B--1
2B--1
3B--2
SS--4
UTIL--4
OF--11


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects published in Feb. 2019 as adjusted (since the list was finalized before the JD Davis trade, I chose to also include Luis Santana and Ross Adolph who were #13 and #18 respectively on BA's Mets list so in actuality we're talking 32 prospects here)
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 17 Prospects (retrieved 2/13/19)
MP = MLB Pipeline's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 2/28/19)
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)
1500 = Prospects 1500 Top 50 Prospects (retrieved 1/28/19)

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #177 on: February 28, 2019, 10:00:00 pm »
FWIW, near misses on the MLB Pipeline top 30 list...

Jim Callis  @jimcallisMLB 9h ago
The @astros had too much depth and I just ran out of spots. [Cristian] Javier literally was No. 31 on the list. Brandon Bailey was another pitcher who was tough to leave off the list.

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #178 on: March 08, 2019, 10:28:59 am »
Since MLB Pipeline came out with an article looking at each team's best prospect beyond the Top 30 I've added Cristian Javier to their list...

5 or More Prospect Lists (24)
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Framber Valdez..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
3B Abraham Toro...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
C Garrett Stubbs.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF J.J. Matijevic........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bielak...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Dean Deetz......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Tyler Ivey..........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Peter Solomon.................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Bryan Abreu.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jayson Schroeder.............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
2B Luis Santana........................BA/BP/MP/PL/1500

4 Prospect Lists (7)
OF Myles Straw........................BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Ronnie Dawson..................BA/MP/PL/1500
SS Jeremy Pena....................... FG/BA/MP/1500
OF Ross Adolph.......................BA/BP/MP/1500
3B Joe Perez.............................FG/BA/PL/1500
SS Deury Carrasco...................FG/BA/MP/1500
RHP Cristian Javier...................FG/MP/PL/1500

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Brandon Bailey.................FG/PL/1500
LHP Reymin Guduan................FG/BA/1500
RHP Enoli Paredes....................FG/MP/1500

2 Prospect Lists (4)
RHP Heitor Tokar......................PL/1500
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte................FG/1500
LHP Kit Scheetz.........................FG/1500
RHP Manny Ramirez................FG/BA

1 Prospect List (16)
RHP Carlos Sanabria................FG
RHP Cody Deason....................FG
RHP Brady Rodgers..................BA   
UTIL Nick Tanielu.....................1500
LHP Ryan Hartman..................1500
UTIL Josh Rojas.........................1500
UTIL Alex De Goti.....................1500
LHP Brett Adcock.....................1500
RHP Chad Donato....................1500
OF Jake Meyers.........................1500
RHP Cy Sneed...........................1500
RHP Akeem Bostick..................1500
1B Taylor Jones.........................1500
OF Corey Julks...........................1500
OF Carlos Machado..................1500
C Nathan Perry.........................1500

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--23
LHP--6
C--2
1B--1
2B--1
3B--2
SS--4
UTIL--4
OF--11


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects published in Feb. 2019 as adjusted (since the list was finalized before the JD Davis trade, I chose to also include Luis Santana and Ross Adolph who were #13 and #18 respectively on BA's Mets list so in actuality we're talking 32 prospects here)
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 17 Prospects (retrieved 2/13/19)
MP = MLB Pipeline's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 2/28/19) plus Best Prospect Who Just Missed (retrieved 3/8/19) for a total of 31 prospects
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)
1500 = Prospects 1500 Top 50 Prospects (retrieved 1/28/19)

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #179 on: March 14, 2019, 02:57:10 pm »
FG with their new list out on the Astros which contains a total of 46 players if you include the "other prospects of note"...

5 or More Prospect Lists (25)
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
LHP Framber Valdez..............FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
3B Abraham Toro...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
2B Luis Santana......................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL/1500
C Garrett Stubbs.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF J.J. Matijevic........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Brandon Bielak...............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Dean Deetz......................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Tyler Ivey..........................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Peter Solomon.................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Bryan Abreu.....................FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
RHP Jayson Schroeder.............FG/BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Ross Adolph........................FG/BA/BP/MP/1500

4 Prospect Lists (6)
OF Myles Straw........................BA/MP/PL/1500
OF Ronnie Dawson..................BA/MP/PL/1500
SS Jeremy Pena....................... FG/BA/MP/1500
3B Joe Perez.............................FG/BA/PL/1500
SS Deury Carrasco...................FG/BA/MP/1500
RHP Cristian Javier...................FG/MP/PL/1500

3 Prospect Lists (3)
RHP Brandon Bailey.................FG/PL/1500
LHP Reymin Guduan................FG/BA/1500
RHP Enoli Paredes....................FG/MP/1500

2 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Manny Ramirez................FG/BA
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte................FG/1500
LHP Kit Scheetz.........................FG/1500
OF Carlos Machado..................FG/1500
RHP Heitor Tokar......................PL/1500

1 Prospect List (21)
RHP Carlos Sanabria................FG
RHP Angel Macuare.................FG
RHP Cody Deason....................FG
RHP R.J. Freure.........................FG
RHP Jose Hernandez................FG
UTIL Enmanuel Valdez.............FG
C Chuckie Robinson.................FG
C Scott Manea...........................FG
RHP Brady Rodgers..................BA   
UTIL Nick Tanielu.....................1500
LHP Ryan Hartman..................1500
UTIL Josh Rojas.........................1500
UTIL Alex De Goti.....................1500
LHP Brett Adcock.....................1500
RHP Chad Donato....................1500
OF Jake Meyers.........................1500
RHP Cy Sneed...........................1500
RHP Akeem Bostick..................1500
1B Taylor Jones.........................1500
OF Corey Julks...........................1500
C Nathan Perry.........................1500

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--26
LHP--6
C--4
1B--1
2B--1
3B--2
SS--4
UTIL--5
OF--11


FG = Fangraph's "Astro's Top 39 Prospects" plus 7 add'l prospects of note for a total of 46 prospects (retrieved 3/14/19)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects published in Feb. 2019 as adjusted (since the list was finalized before the JD Davis trade, I chose to also include Luis Santana and Ross Adolph who were #13 and #18 respectively on BA's Mets list so in actuality we're talking 32 prospects here)
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 17 Prospects (retrieved 2/13/19)
MP = MLB Pipeline's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 2/28/19) plus Best Prospect Who Just Missed (retrieved 3/8/19) for a total of 31 prospects
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects (retrieved 1/8/19)
1500 = Prospects 1500 Top 50 Prospects (retrieved 1/28/19)
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 03:53:36 pm by Nate Colbert »

Nate Colbert

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #180 on: March 15, 2019, 10:51:29 am »
The Astros target spin? If you somehow had your doubts before...

Breaking Ball Spin Rate
  • 4 of the top 9 belong to Astros prospects (6 of the top 11 if you include recent exes Patrick Sandoval & Trent Thornton)
  • 9 of the top 63
  • 12 of the top 90

Fastball Spin Rate
  • 4 of the top 14 belong to Astros prospects
  • 11 of the top 95

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=11,1&type=3&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #181 on: March 18, 2019, 10:13:50 pm »
https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-prospects-at-spring-training?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

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After tearing the ACL in his right knee playing football in November 2016, third baseman/second baseman Nick Tanielu played in just two games in 2017 and wasn't back to 100 percent last season. Finally healthy again, he's topping the Astros in slugging (.829), OPS (1.239), hits (12), extra-base hits (eight), homers (four) and RBIs (13) while striking out just three times in 39 plate appearances. "He's always made a lot of contact and hit the ball hard," Putila said. "He's been working with Ben Rosenthal, our Triple-A hitting coach, on improving his load. His OPS last year [.755] doesn't do him justice because he was coming back from the ACL. He's very interesting."

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #182 on: March 18, 2019, 10:19:09 pm »
Callis on Bryan Abreu:

Quote
Members of Houston's player development staff will go even further, with some likening Abreu's curveball to the absolute hammer that Lance McCullers Jr. possesses. He generates huge spin rates and tremendous depth on his low-80s curve, and he said he actually has more trust in an upper-80s slider that he tightened last season with the help of pitching coach Graham Johnson at Class A Quad Cities. Abreu's breaking balls destroyed right-handed hitters last season, as he held them to a .380 OPS while striking out 52 percent of them. He posted a 1.49 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings between short-season Tri-City and Quad Cities.

Abreu's fastball is difficult to contend with as well, ranging from 92-96 mph with running action. His biggest needs at this point are to refine his circle changeup and continue to improve his control and command. He did a better job of locating his pitches in 2018, cutting his walk rate to 3.8 per nine innings after averaging 6.2 in his first four pro seasons.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #183 on: March 21, 2019, 06:53:57 pm »
LHP Parker Mushinski
The Red Raider ex had shaky control while pitching in Lubbock and that has continued into the pros. This season for QC the 22-year old out of the Metroplex had a 11.9% BB rate, one of the highest of any starter (min: 80 IP) in the system. But there were significant positives as well--a BAA of just .189 and a K rate topping 30%. Given his wildness issues, org brass may have realized his future was not as a starter and on Aug 3 he was moved to the River Bandits bullpen. Alternatively, the move was made to simply limit his innings for the year. Whichever the reason, the results were pretty slick: 14.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 28 K. He also ended the regular season not having given up an ER over his last 21.1 innings. Low 90s FB (T94) and above avg curve was the scouting report from 2017. They've got him listed at 6'0" 225 lbs. A Jim Stevenson signee.

After watching and talking with JBB, Mushinski added a slider last season to what he says is a FB/cutter repertoire.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2019/3/19/18269675/a-conversation-with-astros-pitching-prospect-parker-mushinski

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #184 on: August 02, 2019, 10:01:03 am »
After the trades, MLB.com moves Freudis Nova up to 3.


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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #185 on: August 02, 2019, 10:15:41 am »
I’m surprised that Pena hasn’t moved up.  I’ve never seen him play, but if he really can field SS, then he seems appealing.

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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #186 on: August 02, 2019, 10:22:44 am »
I’m surprised that Pena hasn’t moved up.  I’ve never seen him play, but if he really can field SS, then he seems appealing.

He is an excellent defender.  The bat is still questioned.  He puts up similar numbers next season and pudnits will take notice.
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Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Reply #187 on: August 02, 2019, 10:23:58 pm »
He is an excellent defender.  The bat is still questioned.  He puts up similar numbers next season and pudnits will take notice.
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