Author Topic: BA prospect list  (Read 1083 times)

toddthebod

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VirtualBob

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2018, 05:08:38 pm »
https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/astros-top-10-prospects-2018-222724/?utm_content=buffer64e4c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#9BtP3RHYyFlqeXg0.97

Top 4 is as expected.  But Nova, Solis, and Alcala in the top ten?  Thoughts?
Alcala is that good, and I really like H.Perez.  That said, there are way too many of these "Top XXX" lists, and I think some of them go for shock value ... a sort of 'we are really ahead of the crowd calling _____ a top prospect'.  There is 0 downside and a lot of upside for them if they hit on one of these long shots.
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Reuben

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2018, 09:12:01 pm »
Alcala is that good, and I really like H.Perez.  That said, there are way too many of these "Top XXX" lists, and I think some of them go for shock value ... a sort of 'we are really ahead of the crowd calling _____ a top prospect'.  There is 0 downside and a lot of upside for them if they hit on one of these long shots.
I thought the same thing when BP put Jonathan Arauz up at #6 on their list.
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Reuben

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2018, 11:16:15 pm »
By the way, I listened to part of a BA podcast discussing Pirates prospects today. They were gushing about a pitcher (who I hadn't heard of until this, frankly) named Mitch Keller, who according to them is one of the very top pitching prospects in baseball. They said that, when they ask scouts what pitchers they like best (prospect-wise), they usually say either Keller, Reyes (from StL, injured this year), Buehler (LAD), or Forrest Whitley.
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Reuben

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2018, 02:24:01 pm »
More gushing praise for Whitley on the BA Top 100 Prospects podcast. They ranked him 10th overall; he's the 2nd pitcher on the list after Shohei Ohtani. Said scouts rave about him.
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juliogotay

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2018, 10:30:52 am »
Baseball America has ranked the Astros has having 10th best ML farm system. The rest of the West has Angels at 14, Oakland 18, Texas 23 and Seattle 30.


toddthebod

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2018, 12:53:43 pm »
A lot of the rating value comes from Tucker and Whitley.  How do they rank the rest of the Astros system?
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NeilT

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2018, 01:28:57 pm »
A lot of the rating value comes from Tucker and Whitley.  How do they rank the rest of the Astros system?

Not as well as they do with Tucker and Whitley.
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juliogotay

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2018, 01:50:00 pm »
A lot of the rating value comes from Tucker and Whitley.  How do they rank the rest of the Astros system?

Something called Baseball Pipeline has Houston ranked with the 11th best farm. They have Whitely 9, Tucker 17 and Boukaskas 76.
They ranked Oakland @ 14 as next best in the AL West. Followed by Anaheim 16, Texas 19 and Seattle 27.

BA has Houston at 10 overall with Whitely # 10, Tucker #15, Alvarez #62 and Boukaskas #76. Oakland also has 4 prospects in BA's Top 100 while Anaheim, Texas and Seattle come in with 3/2/1 respectively in the Top 100. Here is BA's overview. https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-houston-astros-top-10-prospects/#5OOBBjXXWV7VSOTQ.97

« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 01:51:54 pm by juliogotay »

Duman

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2018, 04:59:45 pm »
The more list you read, you start finding a consensus.  I used to do a compilation of all the list and get an average ranking for a player - that kept me from falling for someone's man crush on a certain player's tool (nttawwt)
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MusicMan

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2018, 07:48:38 am »
The more list you read, you start finding a consensus.  I used to do a compilation of all the list and get an average ranking for a player - that kept me from falling for someone's man crush on a certain player's tool (nttawwt)

Do I have such a spreadsheet? Yes. Have I spent time asking how to properly weight “not listed” and “honorable mention”? Also yes.


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VirtualBob

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2018, 08:18:30 am »
Do I have such a spreadsheet? Yes. Have I spent time asking how to properly weight “not listed” and “honorable mention”? Also yes.


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And then there is the weighting of sources ... sometimes based on gut feel and sometimes based on looking at past predictions and how they fared.  Lots of math to validate a SWAG.
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Duman

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2018, 01:16:25 pm »
Do I have such a spreadsheet? Yes. Have I spent time asking how to properly weight “not listed” and “honorable mention”? Also yes.


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Here is mine from several years ago.  I think after the 2012 season
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Reuben

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2018, 01:38:44 pm »
Here is mine from several years ago.  I think after the 2012 season
The thing that jumps out at me from that spreadsheet (aside from the now-laughable consensus ranking of Singleton ahead of Correa) is how many of those guys have made it to the majors for at least a cup of coffee: all of the first 20, I think, and several others including Brett Phillips and Devenski down at #44-45. That seems like a really high percentage.
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juliogotay

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2018, 02:30:02 pm »
Damn, I just threw out a stack of BA's featuring the top 10 prospect in whichever division the Astros were in at the time going back almost 20 years. Pre-Luhnow most of these were total ML busts. I had forgotten about most of them but so many did not even have a cup of ML coffee.

Reuben

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2018, 07:26:13 pm »
Damn, I just threw out a stack of BA's featuring the top 10 prospect in whichever division the Astros were in at the time going back almost 20 years. Pre-Luhnow most of these were total ML busts. I had forgotten about most of them but so many did not even have a cup of ML coffee.
A lot of futility in there. Remember when we were pinning our hopes on TJ Steele, Jio Mier, Ross Seaton, and Jonathan Meyer? On the other hand, Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, and George Springer were pretty good pre-Luhnow prospects.
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juliogotay

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 08:53:51 pm »
A lot of futility in there. Remember when we were pinning our hopes on TJ Steele, Jio Mier, Ross Seaton, and Jonathan Meyer? On the other hand, Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, and George Springer were pretty good pre-Luhnow prospects.

I'll see you Steele, Mier and Seaton for Robert Stiehl, Mike Nannini, and Hector Gimenez.

VirtualBob

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2018, 09:57:36 pm »
Just looking at the top 3 for the past 12 years is an eye-opener.

2017 - Martes, Tucker, D.Paulino
2016 - Reed, Martes, Bregman
2015 - Correa, Appel, Velasquez
2014 - Correa, Springer, Appel
2013 - Correa, Singleton, Springer
2012 - Singleton, Cosart, Springer
2011 - Lyles, DeShields, Villar
2010 - Castro, Mier, Lyles
2009 - Castro, Norris, Seaton
2008 - Towles, F.Paulino, Patton
2007 - Pence!, Patton, Albers
2006 - Hirsch, Patton, Nieve

Other notable names: Max Sapp (#9 in 2007), Colin Delome (#9 in 2008), Jon Gaston (#9 in 2009), Chia-Jen Lo (#5 in 2009), Austin Wates (#9 in 2010), Tanner Bushue (#8 in 2010), Mike Foltynewicz (#9 in 2011), Nick Tropeano (#9 in 2012), Asher Wojciechowski (#10 in 2013) and Brett Phillips (#5 in 2014).
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MusicMan

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2018, 07:59:05 am »
The change from 2011 to 2012 is stark.


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Reuben

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Re: BA prospect list
« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2018, 12:30:39 pm »
The change from 2011 to 2012 is stark.


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I'm sure this has been remarked on before, but it's ironic that arguably Ed Wade's biggest triumph as Astros GM - trading 1 and 1/2 seasons of Pence for Cosart, Singleton, and Domingo Santana - those 3 guys didn't actually end up providing much Major League impact for the team. Really, it's only due to Luhnow trading Cosart for Marisnick, Martes, and Moran that the Astros got any value out of the Pence trade. And of course, the Cosart deal also got them the comp pick that became Daz Cameron, who helped them trade for Verlander.
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