The End of Big Money Free Agents

[Limey]

Sorry Yu, but this guy reckons that the Astros have put an end to big money free agent signings.  The tear-down, rebuild model is now the proven way to go.

I think he's correct that the tear-down, rebuild model is proven; I think he's completely wrong that it's the end of big money free agent signings.  He is overlooking one major factor:  idiot owners.  They will never tire of pumping their own egos and getting to sniff the jock of a superstar athlete by splashing big money for him.  It sells shirts and seats in the short term, and no manager is going to say "no" to a big talent injection.  Also, very few owners will have the patience and inner peace required to suck up 300 losses in three years.

So Darvish and the rest will get their money because it only takes one owner to blink.  The Astros?  I like the talk in here of Gattis as everyday PHer, because they need all the money they can get to keep this team together as the players come up for new contracts.

[HudsonHawk]

I think the Astros have shown that a mix of young players and veterans makes a healthy combo.  The Astros are not where they are without McCann, Beltran, and especially Verlander.  I think the Astros getting Verlander demonstrated how much of a difference one player can make, especially if he is a top-notch starting pitcher.  Who are owners most likely to throw crazy money at?  Top-notch starting pitchers.  Secondly, the tear down model is a painful one.  Not every owner is willing to go that route.

There are a lot of teams that have good, young talent.  If anything, I think the Astros title will encourage owners to go after "that one guy". 

[geezerdonk]

Speaking of big money free agents, what efforts are the Astros making to resign Altuve. Who are going to be the competing bidders? What are the odds that he is in New York or Boston next year?

[LonghornCDR]

Speaking of big money free agents, what efforts are the Astros making to resign Altuve. Who are going to be the competing bidders? What are the odds that he is in New York or Boston next year?

Astros have two years until Altuve is a UFA for the 2020 season. 

[Mr. Appropriate]

This season shows that tear-down can work--if executed really really well. It also shows that spending a ton of money can get you to the big show too (Dojers, I am looking at you).

Bet a lot of teams are going to attempt a "tear down" and fail. It will be the story they give to a dwindling, frustrated fan base.

Big market teams (NY, LA, Boston) cannot tear-down and they don't have to. I am hoping that Astros transforms itself into a big market team worthy of the size of the city and the size of the regional (and maybe national) interest in the team.

[HudsonHawk]

This season shows that tear-down can work--if executed really really well. It also shows that spending a ton of money can get you to the big show too (Dojers, I am looking at you).

Bet a lot of teams are going to attempt a "tear down" and fail. It will be the story they give to a dwindling, frustrated fan base.

Big market teams (NY, LA, Boston) cannot tear-down and they don't have to. I am hoping that Astros transforms itself into a big market team worthy of the size of the city and the size of the regional (and maybe national) interest in the team.

The optimistic homer side of me says that winning this World Series will have a dramatic impact on the fan base and their attitude.  There has always been a "woe is me" attitude among Houston sports fans, who think they're somehow cursed and a Houston team "will never win the big one", despite having won the big one before (it's amazing how people forget about the Rockets titles).  That said, Houston is still a city of transplants and lots of loyalty to other teams.  It's not NY or Chicago, or even Cincinnati for that matter, when it comes to fan base.  Houston just isn't that kind of city.  It'll be interesting to see.  One thing I hope is that the Astros reclaim some of the other Texas territory they lost in the last decade.  For example, when I lived in Midland, it was solidly Astros territory.  By 2011, it was all Rangers.  Hopefully, there is opportunity there. 

[MRaup]

The optimistic homer side of me says that winning this World Series will have a dramatic impact on the fan base and their attitude.  There has always been a "woe is me" attitude among Houston sports fans, who think they're somehow cursed and a Houston team "will never win the big one", despite having won the big one before (it's amazing how people forget about the Rockets titles).  That said, Houston is still a city of transplants and lots of loyalty to other teams.  It's not NY or Chicago, or even Cincinnati for that matter, when it comes to fan base.  Houston just isn't that kind of city.  It'll be interesting to see.  One thing I hope is that the Astros reclaim some of the other Texas territory they lost in the last decade.  For example, when I lived in Midland, it was solidly Astros territory.  By 2011, it was all Rangers.  Hopefully, there is opportunity there.

Texas sports fans in general are notoriously fair weather fans in my experiences.

[Limey]

Texas sports fans in general are notoriously fair weather fans in my experiences.

All fans are.  Every club has a hard core, which is supplemented by fair weather fans when the going is good.  Some of those fans will stick, as will some of their offspring to enhance the hard core, but most won't.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Reid Ryan touched on this in an interview with Dallas radio prior to the WS.  He mentioned the club lost a lot of revenue with the TV deal and that they're rebuilding from that.

What he didn't say was that the tear down was going to cost fans,  the tv fiasco lost millions more,  and with the Rangers going to 2 WS there was a lot more blue/red hats than orange across the state.

That will have shifted some now; getting more games in living rooms will hopefully continue to be a priority.  Not all carriers offer ATT.

These swing markets/ fans will continue to be a battleground going forward.

[Limey]

Reid Ryan touched on this in an interview with Dallas radio prior to the WS.  He mentioned the club lost a lot of revenue with the TV deal and that they're rebuilding from that.

Drayton McLane: the gift that keeps on giving.

[Jacksonian]

By 2011, it was all Rangers.  Hopefully, there is opportunity there.

When Round Rock goes back to Houston in a couple of years it will help a lot.

[AstroFrog]

Astros have two years until Altuve is a UFA for the 2020 season.

Kind of off the initial topic, but any chance the Astros would tear up his contract, give him a raise (though less than he'll likely command as a UFA), and add years to the back end?  Any chance Altuve would *want* to do that?  IIRC, he's hired Boras as an agent.

Altuve's deal is considered one of the most team-friendly in all of baseball, so does it generate good will for the club to reward him for providing so much value?

[mrpink]

Kind of off the initial topic, but any chance the Astros would tear up his contract, give him a raise (though less than he'll likely command as a UFA), and add years to the back end?  Any chance Altuve would *want* to do that?  IIRC, he's hired Boras as an agent.

Altuve's deal is considered one of the most team-friendly in all of baseball, so does it generate good will for the club to reward him for providing so much value?

I've been wondering about this for a while.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Childhood-friends-Altuve-Perez-are-dream-5621556.php

[BlownRanger]

Kind of off the initial topic, but any chance the Astros would tear up his contract, give him a raise (though less than he'll likely command as a UFA), and add years to the back end?  Any chance Altuve would *want* to do that?  IIRC, he's hired Boras as an agent.

Altuve's deal is considered one of the most team-friendly in all of baseball, so does it generate good will for the club to reward him for providing so much value?

Apparently not.  At least not yet.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260572310/astros-pick-up-options-on-altuve-gonzalez/?topicId=27118122

[subnuclear]

These guys are pros and at minimum their agents aren't going to let them get too sentimental. I'm just going to enjoy this team for now and be happy for Altuve when he gets his very deserved big contract.

[JimR]

Texas sports fans in general are notoriously fair weather fans in my experiences.

and bandwaggoners

[austro]

When Round Rock goes back to Houston in a couple of years it will help a lot.

I really hope so. So tired of the Rangers gear around here. It wasn't always that way.

If they do that, I might even re-up the season tickets.

[Jacksonian]

I really hope so. So tired of the Rangers gear around here. It wasn't always that way.

If they do that, I might even re-up the season tickets.

The Rangers PDC with them is up after either 18 or 19.  Then they will sign with Houston.

[austro]

Bet a lot of teams are going to attempt a "tear down" and fail. It will be the story they give to a dwindling, frustrated fan base.

The "problem" with the strategy is that you still need to be able to identify talent, and you have to be lucky. All you have to do is look at the top 10 picks for the last 20 years to realize how difficult it is to figure out who is going to be truly good. I think Luhnow et al are pretty good at it, and they've still got Appel, Aiken, and others on the wrong side of the ledger.

[BudGirl]

The "problem" with the strategy is that you still need to be able to identify talent, and you have to be lucky. All you have to do is look at the top 10 picks for the last 20 years to realize how difficult it is to figure out who is going to be truly good. I think Luhnow et al are pretty good at it, and they've still got Appel, Aiken, and others on the wrong side of the ledger.

+1, tear down method only works if you make the right picks. 

[VirtualBob]

If they do that, I might even re-up the season tickets.

This.

[VirtualBob]

The Rangers PDC with them is up after either 18 or 19.  Then they will sign with Houston.

18.

[juliogotay]

I was waiting in the barber shop today and found a SI to read. There was one article on the top FA's for this off-season with predictions where they would sign. #1 was JD Martinez. Prediction.....Houston.

Also there was a sidebar to the WS coverage about "tanking".  The authors' point....the Astros don't deserve any kudos for their success because they took the tanking route. This was after the writer pointed out that other teams are adopting the tanking approach.

[JimR]

I was waiting in the barber shop today and found a SI to read. There was one article on the top FA's for this off-season with predictions where they would sign. #1 was JD Martinez. Prediction.....Houston.

Also there was a sidebar to the WS coverage about "tanking".  The authors' point....the Astros don't deserve any kudos for their success because they took the tanking route. This was after the writer pointed out that other teams are adopting the tanking approach.

I refused to read the tanking story.

[doyce7]

I was waiting in the barber shop today and found a SI to read. There was one article on the top FA's for this off-season with predictions where they would sign. #1 was JD Martinez. Prediction.....Houston.

Also there was a sidebar to the WS coverage about "tanking".  The authors' point....the Astros don't deserve any kudos for their success because they took the tanking route. This was after the writer pointed out that other teams are adopting the tanking approach.

Winning a world series, no matter the route, is an accomplishment and anyone who doesn't believe that doesn't know anything about sports.

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[Mr. Happy]

I was waiting in the barber shop today and found a SI to read. There was one article on the top FA's for this off-season with predictions where they would sign. #1 was JD Martinez. Prediction.....Houston.

Also there was a sidebar to the WS coverage about "tanking".  The authors' point....the Astros don't deserve any kudos for their success because they took the tanking route. This was after the writer pointed out that other teams are adopting the tanking approach.

Fuck them. Imitation is the greatest form of flattery.

[chuck]

Winning a world series, no matter the route, is an accomplishment and anyone who doesn't believe that doesn't know anything about sports.

Absolutely, and I'm quite sure the Marlins are still two-time world champions despite radically dismantling their teams immediately after each championship.

[AtascAstro]

I find that line of reasoning very disengenious if you don't also point out the huge disparity in baseball payrolls.  The Dodgers and Yankees can (and have) bought their way out of mistakes and bad luck.  Fewer than 5 teams are capable of that.  I see the smaller market tear down approach as a perfectly acceptable balance against large money franchises.  It is much harder to execute than writing checks like the Dodgers.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

I find that line of reasoning very disengenious if you don't also point out the huge disparity in baseball payrolls.  The Dodgers and Yankees can (and have) bought their way out of mistakes and bad luck.  Fewer than 5 teams are capable of that.  I see the smaller market tear down approach as a perfectly acceptable balance against large money franchises.  It is much harder to execute than writing checks like the Dodgers.

Great point,  and its what is ultimately the trump card to critics of the radical tear down.  The financial playing field is far from level.