Irma(gurd)

[Limey]

Sustained winds of 185mph makes her the strongest hurricane ever recorded, and is the equivalent wind speed to an EF4 tornado.  I just read that they have been measuring gusts near the eye wall of 225mph.  Barbuda has already been hit (and hasn't been heard from since) and the storm surge is perilously close to the level that will simply wipe out Turks and Caicos.

So many islands in her path, and then Miami...

[juliogotay]

Good lord. Not that this is the most important thing but it is something else for the Caribbean players to worry about. Not to mention those with ties to South Florida and wherever else this monster passes.

[Bench]

Irma is a nightmare of a storm.  My heart goes out to all in her path.

Jose and Katia have hit official hurricane status as well, yielding the rare Atlantic basin trifecta (in 1998 there were four hurricanes at the same time).  Fortunately it looks like Jose will fuck off into the Atlantic, but Katia is dumping a bunch of wind and rain on eastern Mexico. 

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't like non-quaffable hurricanes very much. 

[Limey]

Looks like Irma is missing Puerto Rico by thaaat much, but is still nailed on for the Bahamas.  Miami still taking a direct hit in both the American and Euro models, but with much less certainty on that.

So far looking like Ty might be spared a direct hit and/or dirty side lashing, but still too early to be sure.

[Ty in Tampa]

We're obviously hoping it turns north sooner rather than later. God forbid that thing gets into the Gulf.

[Limey]

We're obviously hoping it turns north sooner rather than later. God forbid that thing gets into the Gulf.

Are you riding her out?

Agreed on the Gulf, she'd spin up to 200mph in the warm water!

[Nate in IA]

Sustained winds of 185mph makes her the strongest hurricane ever recorded (records being taken only for the last 80 years), and is the equivalent wind speed to an EF4 tornado.  I just read that they have been measuring gusts near the eye wall of 225mph.  Barbuda has already been hit (and hasn't been heard from since) and the storm surge is perilously close to the level that will simply wipe out Turks and Caicos.

So many islands in her path, and then Miami...

Fixed it for you.   Hurricanes have only been recorded for 80 years.   No one knows if Cape Verde storms this strong have ever been before because they just don't know.

[Bench]

Fixed it for you.   Hurricanes have only been recorded for 80 years.   No one knows if Cape Verde storms this strong have ever been before because they just don't know.

One might just say this is the strongest hurricane "ever recorded."

[chuck]

Are you riding her out?

I've seen Ty's warehouse of hurricane preparation materials. I don't know what he plans to do but if he plans to ride it out he is uniquely prepared.

Happy birthday, Ty, by the way.

[Nate in IA]

One might just say this is the strongest hurricane "ever recorded."

But that doesn't come close to expressing that we know next to nothing about hurricanes because the length of recording is infinitesimally small

[Ty in Tampa]

We are sticking around if it stays to the east of us, which most models say it will. I'll keep y'all posted.

Thanks, chuck!

[das]

Sustained winds of 185mph makes her the strongest hurricane ever recorded, and is the equivalent wind speed to an EF4 tornado.  I just read that they have been measuring gusts near the eye wall of 225mph.  Barbuda has already been hit (and hasn't been heard from since) and the storm surge is perilously close to the level that will simply wipe out Turks and Caicos.

There are two ways to measure the intensity of a storm; wind speed and barometric pressure. The  strongest storms ever recorded were Pacific basin storms: 

Pressure: Typhoon  Tip (1979) 870 mb (25.69")
Winds: Hurricane Patricia (2015) 185 kts (215 mph)

In the Atlantic basin, the most intense storms have been:

Pressure: Hurricane Wilma (882mb)
Winds: Hurricane Allen (190mph)

Despite what the bloviating media says, she has not broken any of the traditional intensity records, by any measure. That said, Irma is in some rare company. A top 10 storm in the Atlantic for sure and a top 25 in the world. She will indeed (or already has) broken some records. Irma is the furthest-west forming 180+mph storm in the Atlantic basin. She is also likely to achieve the greatest number of hours as a Cat5 in all basins (held by Allen).  She's nearing the record now for consecutive number of hours as a Cat5 (Allen achieved Cat5 three separate times after eyeball replacement cycles).

[Phil_in_CS]

But that doesn't come close to expressing that we know next to nothing about hurricanes because the length of recording is infinitesimally small

Part of the issue with comparing them is basic science and instrumentation - the quality and quantity of data now is very high, but as you look back across the 20th century it drops off quickly. Since 2005 there are many more hurricane hunter missions and much longer duration flights than before then. The first quality weather satellites were in the late 1960s, so prior to then storms were only known if a ship passed through them and even then you were relying on observations from the crew as to how bad they are. 

Getting true apples to apples type comparisons is difficult.

[HudsonHawk]

I grew up hearing stories of the great hurricane of 1928, which was said to have blown the water out of Lake Okeechobee, drowning over 2,500 people, like something out of the Old Testament;, and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which is the strongest storm to have ever made landfall in the US (I think.  That's what I've heard.  DAS may correct me), which basically obliterated the Florida Keys.  Irma seems to be tracking eerily similarly to the latter (which I think is also very similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960).  Hopefully everyone is more prepared in 2017 than they were in 1935.

On a side note...hear from some friends in Puerto Rico yesterday, who said it was very intense, but the storm moved incredibly fast.  Irma does not appear to just loiter about like her idiot brother Harvey. 

[Bench]

But that doesn't come close to expressing that we know next to nothing about hurricanes because the length of recording is infinitesimally small

It's a valid point, but I thought presenting it in a "fixed it for you format" was unnecessarily obnoxious when Limey made it clear that he was referring to the period of recorded history.

[Nate in IA]

It's a valid point, but I thought presenting it in a "fixed it for you format" was unnecessarily obnoxious when Limey made it clear that he was referring to the period of recorded history.

Duly noted.   That was more my issue of where I was when I posted that.   

[Bench]

Duly noted.   That was more my issue of where I was when I posted that.

No problem.  Just the fun of message boards.

[das]

I grew up hearing stories of the great hurricane of 1928, which was said to have blown the water out of Lake Okeechobee, drowning over 2,500 people, like something out of the Old Testament;, and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which is the strongest storm to have ever made landfall in the US (I think.  That's what I've heard.  DAS may correct me), which basically obliterated the Florida Keys.  Irma seems to be tracking eerily similarly to the latter (which I think is also very similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960).  Hopefully everyone is more prepared in 2017 than they were in 1935.

@HH, The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was indeed the strongest hurricane to strike the mainland US at 185mph and 892mb.  So far.  Camille was understood to be the strongest for many years until NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory completed their reanalysis program for Atlantic tropical systems.  Camille was re-analyzed to be at 175mph at landfall in Mississippi in 1969, down from the 190mph that was the estimated peak at landfall. 

@Phil, the data quality we now have on these storms is indeed high.  That said, data sciences capabilities continue to increase as well, leading to increasingly excellent analysis of storm genesis, formation, track and intensity all the way back to 1851.  Because mariners are typically fastidious record keepers (their lives depend on it) there are a variety of good records available from that community as well as other historical records and data for re-analysis.  The AOML mentioned above re-analyzed the entire record from 1851 to 1960 in logical segments (the 1960's are being reanalyzed right now but these are taking increasingly longer as the data sets are increasingly expansive in more modern times) and has lept forward for significant events like Camille using established forensics, data science and extrapolative physics to re-assess each tropical season.  This has led to the addition of some previously unknown storms, deletions of others and much better understanding of the lifecycle of each of the storms in the historical record, including the overall basin meteorologic state and processes that created and maintained each storm through its life-cycle. 

The methodology can be found here:
Overview presentation format:  https://www.lib.noaa.gov/about/news/landsea_sept182015.pdf
Scholarly paper:  http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4208.1

The reanalyses, in logical groupings, are here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

The open-source data sets are here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.html

[Andyzipp]

Did the reanalysis change any opinion about the 1900 Galveston Hurricane?  I think it's still considered the "deadliest" in terms of lives lost.

[das]

Did the reanalysis change any opinion about the 1900 Galveston Hurricane?  I think it's still considered the "deadliest" in terms of lives lost.

I actually don't know about that one as I am not sure what the original estimates were.  Here's what's in the report about landfall:
#/Date         Time     Lat       Lon        Max Winds  Saffir-Simpson   RMW    Storm Surge   Central Pressure   Environ. Pressure   States Affected
1-9/9/1900  0140Z  29.1N   95.1W   125kt             4                          14nmi  20'                    936mb                    1012mb                    CTX4


The initial report is from Columbia University and gives a great, lightly-scientific description about the methodology used for the early records.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/rpibook-final04.pdf
I was shocked to see a table with the earliest reliable records by state.  It's noteworthy:

State                   Date
_________________________________
Texas -               south 1880
Texas -               central 1850
Texas -               north 1860
Louisiana          1880
Mississippi       1850
Alabama           < 1851 (1830)
Florida –            northwest 1880
Florida –            southwest 1900
Florida –            southeast 1900
Florida –            northeast 1880
Georgia             < 1851 (1800)
South Carolina < 1851 (1760)
North Carolina < 1851 (1760)
Virginia              < 1851 (1700)
Maryland             < 1851 (1760)
Delaware             < 1851 (1700)
New Jersey          < 1851 (1760)
New York             < 1851 (1700)
Connecticut         < 1851 (1660)
Rhode Island       < 1851 (1760)
Massachusetts   < 1851 (1660)
New Hampshire  < 1851 (1660)
Maine                    < 1851 (1790)
 

[juliogotay]

Did the reanalysis change any opinion about the 1900 Galveston Hurricane?  I think it's still considered the "deadliest" in terms of lives lost.

As I remember it the 1900 Galveston was mostly a surprise to the U.S. Weather Bureau and the good folks of Galveston.

[Lefty]

As I remember it the 1900 Galveston was mostly a surprise to the U.S. Weather Bureau and the good folks of Galveston.

Isaac's Storm is a great book.

[Phil_in_CS]

@Phil, the data quality we now have on these storms is indeed high.  That said, data sciences capabilities continue to increase as well, leading to increasingly excellent analysis of storm genesis, formation, track and intensity all the way back to 1851.  Because mariners are typically fastidious record keepers (their lives depend on it) there are a variety of good records available from that community as well as other historical records and data for re-analysis.  The AOML mentioned above re-analyzed the entire record from 1851 to 1960 in logical segments (the 1960's are being reanalyzed right now but these are taking increasingly longer as the data sets are increasingly expansive in more modern times) and has lept forward for significant events like Camille using established forensics, data science and extrapolative physics to re-assess each tropical season.  This has led to the addition of some previously unknown storms, deletions of others and much better understanding of the lifecycle of each of the storms in the historical record, including the overall basin meteorologic state and processes that created and maintained each storm through its life-cycle. 

The methodology can be found here:
Overview presentation format:  https://www.lib.noaa.gov/about/news/landsea_sept182015.pdf
Scholarly paper:  http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4208.1

The reanalyses, in logical groupings, are here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

The open-source data sets are here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.html

Thanks! Having grown up in Orange, I'm a life long geek on this. I do try to keep the Dunning Kruger effect in mind, so I try to read what the pros recommend and not pontificate about it.

[Aussie Astro]

As I remember it the 1900 Galveston was mostly a surprise to the U.S. Weather Bureau and the good folks of Galveston.

You remember that storm, I guess you have seen Halley’s Comet twice then?

[chuck]

You remember that storm, I guess you have seen Halley’s Comet twice then?

I was telling my wife the other day about Cyclone Tracy and she was in disbelief at the pictures I showed her.

[Aussie Astro]

I was telling my wife the other day about Cyclone Tracy and she was in disbelief at the pictures I showed her.

I was in Darwin early this year and a guy gave me a bunch of historic photos from the Japs bombing the place and Tracy, they got beat up pretty bad a couple of times.  Cyclone Tracy is a good case study in how apathy can bite you on the arse...  sometimes ‘she won’t be right”.

[chuck]

I was in Darwin early this year and a guy gave me a bunch of historic photos from the Japs bombing the place and Tracy, they got beat up pretty bad a couple of times.  Cyclone Tracy is a good case study in how apathy can bite you on the arse...  sometimes ‘she won’t be right”.

A friend of mine was a child whose family had just moved to Darwin when Tracy hit. She explained to me that not only was Darwin isolated physically then as it is now, it was quite removed from any informational flow. You obviously google up Cyclone Tracy path in 1974 and see what was what. So apparently it was quite a surprise to many when it hit, or at the very least most of the area was woefully unprepared. And, it must be said, drunk as hell because it happened on Christmas Eve if I'm not mistaken.

So the way she tells it, no one really had any idea what was in store for them AND all the adults were drunk as shit. Maybe it works out for the best if no one really was able to remember much of the event. But in all seriousness, it amazes me that there were fewer than 100 deaths when you consider that a significant percentage of the city was annihilated.

[juliogotay]

Isaac's Storm is a great book.

Yep. I wish we could look forward to something else soon from Larson but he seems to be taking a break from writing.

[Limey]

So the way she tells it, no one really had any idea what was in store for them AND all the adults were drunk as shit. Maybe it works out for the best if no one really was able to remember much of the event. But in all seriousness, it amazes me that there were fewer than 100 deaths when you consider that a significant percentage of the city was annihilated.

A lot of the buildings were damaged too.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Looks like Irma is going to skirt the west coast of Florida. Ty, if you didn't evacuate, I hope you are on high ground and in a sturdy compound. Take care.

[Ty in Tampa]

We boarded up and got up to our friends in ATL yesterday evening. We were only able to take essential papers, photos, work equipment and cats so needless to say, we are very concerned about the house...not to mention the many friends we have that are still there.  But we are safe and that's paramount.

I've lived in Tampa for 30 years now and this is the one they are always talking about. If you can call it that, they have been blessed to not have been hit by a storm of this magnitude and direction. I'm anticipating things not being the same for a long time.

[Lefty]

We boarded up and got up to our friends in ATL yesterday evening. We were only able to take essential papers, photos, work equipment and cats so needless to say, we are very concerned about the house...not to mention the many friends we have that are still there.  But we are safe and that's paramount.

I've lived in Tampa for 30 years now and this is the one they are always talking about. If you can call it that, they have been blessed to not have been hit by a storm of this magnitude and direction. I'm anticipating things not being the same for a long time.

My friends in Sarasota are in the same boat.  They went to his dad's place (somewhere inland, not sure where) and he seems to have a solid place to ride it out.

[Ty in Tampa]

My friends in Sarasota are in the same boat.  They went to his dad's place (somewhere inland, not sure where) and he seems to have a solid place to ride it out.

Good news. It's hard to keep the perspective of safety being the only thing to worry about.

[Lefty]

Exactly.  Thoughts out to all your people still down there.

[Bench]

We boarded up and got up to our friends in ATL yesterday evening. We were only able to take essential papers, photos, work equipment and cats so needless to say, we are very concerned about the house...not to mention the many friends we have that are still there.  But we are safe and that's paramount.

I've lived in Tampa for 30 years now and this is the one they are always talking about. If you can call it that, they have been blessed to not have been hit by a storm of this magnitude and direction. I'm anticipating things not being the same for a long time.

I'm glad you guys were able to get somewhere safe.   

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I was telling my wife the other day about Cyclone Tracy and she was in disbelief at the pictures I showed her.

I was in Darwin early this year and a guy gave me a bunch of historic photos from the Japs bombing the place and Tracy, they got beat up pretty bad a couple of times.  Cyclone Tracy is a good case study in how apathy can bite you on the arse...  sometimes ‘she won’t be right”.

Now the Hoodoo Gurus' song, Tojo, makes sense.

[Aussie Astro]

Now the Hoodoo Gurus' song, Tojo, makes sense.

I never would have guessed the Hoodoos had a following outside of Aus.  The old fuckers are still playing and tour out west about twice a year, my brother in law is a big fan and never misses a show.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I never would have guessed the Hoodoos had a following outside of Aus.  The old fuckers are still playing and tour out west about twice a year, my brother in law is a big fan and never misses a show.

They really don't have a "following" in the US. I became familiar with them when I first visited Australia in 1983.

[HudsonHawk]

They really don't have a "following" in the US. I became familiar with them when I first visited Australia in 1983.

They were actually quite popular on the "college rock" scene back in the 80s. 

[Andyzipp]

I never would have guessed the Hoodoos had a following outside of Aus.  The old fuckers are still playing and tour out west about twice a year, my brother in law is a big fan and never misses a show.

Geographically speaking, some of us even like Paul Kelly stateside.

[chuck]

I never would have guessed the Hoodoos had a following outside of Aus.  The old fuckers are still playing and tour out west about twice a year, my brother in law is a big fan and never misses a show.

I've always really liked their singles and wondered why they didn't write more of them.

I'll tell you what mystifies me, and that's the bogan's undying love for the song Copperhead Road.

[Aussie Astro]

They really don't have a "following" in the US. I became familiar with them when I first visited Australia in 1983.

Like Wow – Wipeout!

Geographically speaking, some of us even like Paul Kelly stateside.

I saw Paul Kelly in the news the other day, he is getting ready for another national tour I thnk?  I was a bit shocked at how old he looks and then it hit me, we are getting fucking old.

I've always really liked their singles and wondered why they didn't write more of them.

I'll tell you what mystifies me, and that's the bogan's undying love for the song Copperhead Road.

I try not to think about bogans and what inspires them.