TOOTBLAS (?)

[Knoxbanedoodle]

Listening to Monday's game against the Mets I heard that some Astro was thrown out trying to take an extra base in order to ensure that the throw didn't go home to contest a run. Seems like this happens more and more these days and seldom if ever used to happen. Am I wrong about that? It feels like another tweak--like the shift, stolen-base hate and increasing tolerance of strike outs--that, though grounded in sound statistical analysis, contributes to asymmetry and therefore unbeautifulness in the game. It directly depresses two of baseball's most glorious features (plays at the plate; rallies) to increase the likelihood of a single run scoring while tending to result in guys being thrown out by a bunch--like, walking into the defender's glove "a bunch."

Anyway, I thought this observation rhymed with the pace-grumbling some of us have been engaged in elsewhere. Thrown Out On the Basepaths Like A...Sabrematician?

[MusicMan]

I disagree... I've always viewed this as a smart baserunning play and I don't see it occurring more often.

[Mr. Happy]

I disagree... I've always viewed this as a smart baserunning play and I don't see it occurring more often.

MM is correct IMO. Now, the situation may dictate staying put, i.e., if Miguel Cabrera is coming up next. But otherwise, you do what you can to harvest the run.

[moriartp]

Tejada did it all the time. Sometimes it looks smart, sometimes it looks dumb as hell. It really depends on how well the runner has read the situation.

I haven't noticed it happening more often—my guess is saberfolk wouldn't favor trading an out for a (somewhat) increased chance at one run in most situations.

[HudsonHawk]

That play has been a staple of baseball fundamentals for 150 years.  It's just now being recognized by the statgeeks who've never touched a baseball, even though they still don't understand it.  But its not new.

[Lefty]

Seems like this happens more and more these days and seldom if ever used to happen. Am I wrong about that?

Yes.

[JimR]

Listening to Monday's game against the Mets I heard that some Astro was thrown out trying to take an extra base in order to ensure that the throw didn't go home to contest a run. Seems like this happens more and more these days and seldom if ever used to happen. Am I wrong about that? It feels like another tweak--like the shift, stolen-base hate and increasing tolerance of strike outs--that, though grounded in sound statistical analysis, contributes to asymmetry and therefore unbeautifulness in the game. It directly depresses two of baseball's most glorious features (plays at the plate; rallies) to increase the likelihood of a single run scoring while tending to result in guys being thrown out by a bunch--like, walking into the defender's glove "a bunch."

Anyway, I thought this observation rhymed with the pace-grumbling some of us have been engaged in elsewhere. Thrown Out On the Basepaths Like A...Sabrematician?

That tactic has been used forever and has been discussed here while you were away.

[MusicMan]

It's just now being recognized by the statgeeks who've never touched a baseball, even though they still don't understand it. 

Remember, kids. Math is evil.

I SAW LIBBY PROCTOR DANCING WITH A CALCULATOR!

[HudsonHawk]

Remember, kids. Math is evil.

I SAW LIBBY PROCTOR DANCING WITH A CALCULATOR!

That's a bad analogy for your strawman.  This is more like reading.  Then I could point out that reading itself isn't inherently evil, but without understanding context, you'll often draw the wrong conclusions. 

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Who the fuck is Libby Proctor?

[MusicMan]

Who the fuck is Libby Proctor?

Former fringe prospect for Salem.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VirtualBob]

Former fringe prospect for Salem.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Did he every play?  I do not remember the name and cannot find him on BR.

[MusicMan]

Did he every play?  I do not remember the name and cannot find him on BR.

Try here.

[VirtualBob]

Try here.

Got it.  I almost made a smart-assed comment about "witch Salem" but thought it would be too far out there.  Little did I know ...

[Reuben]

Like a lot of baserunning, whether it is a "good" play depends entirely on the situation (score, outs, inning, pitcher, next hitter) and a proper reading of the timing of everything - how close the runner is to home, when the fielder is releasing the ball, how the cutoff man is lined up, and so on.

In other words, I'd feel better about Jeff Bagwell doing it than Hunter Pence or Jonathan Villar.

[VirtualBob]

In other words, I'd feel better about Jeff Bagwell doing it than Hunter Pence or Jonathan Villar.

"It" could be a lot of things and make that true!

[Mr. Happy]

Like a lot of baserunning, whether it is a "good" play depends entirely on the situation (score, outs, inning, pitcher, next hitter) and a proper reading of the timing of everything - how close the runner is to home, when the fielder is releasing the ball, how the cutoff man is lined up, and so on.

In other words, I'd feel better about Jeff Bagwell doing it than Hunter Pence or Jonathan Villar.

Obviously, who the outfielder is factors in quite a bit. You probably don't want to try for home if the ball has gone to Cespedes, who has a fucking cannon.