Author Topic: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime  (Read 91697 times)

Navin R Johnson

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3240 on: November 08, 2018, 12:10:52 pm »
And of course, what happened to the fucking “caravan”?  There are so many stupid dipshits in this country, happy as hell to be played by politicians.

Trump knows his base is comprised of a bunch of rubes, he can sell them anything and they will buy it.
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Ron Brand

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3241 on: November 08, 2018, 05:40:08 pm »
In the Texas Statehouse, where the House is now split 83-67, there is some noise that the Ds intend to vote together for a Speaker candidate, meaning they’d only need nine Rs to vote with them to elect a new Speaker. There is further noise leaking that they intend to support one of the already-nominated candidates, but how hard would it be to find one with 8 or 9 friends who’d like some nice Committee chairmanships? That’d make life with the other two legislative branches pretty interesting.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3242 on: November 09, 2018, 08:09:07 am »
Democratic gain continue as close races get decided.  As is normal in a wave election, the close races tend to fall more on the side with momentum, and Democratic House flips are now projected at 37 (currently sitting at 31).  Also, the flips in state legislatures are pushing towards 400. 

In the AZ senate race, Democrat Kirsten Sinema has taken the lead and, based on the source of the remaining uncounted ballots, is likely only going to extend that lead.  And the FL races for Senator and Governor are all crazy with ballot confusion and slow counting.  Machine recounts are going to happen in both and the probably hand counts.  As more ballots are tallied, the race tightens.  This ain’t over yet*.  Republican senate flips may yet be capped at 2 which, given the historically tough map faced by Democrats, would be remarkable. 

* In future elections, 1.4 million - mostly minority - former felons will have their voting rights back.  Florida is unlikely to be close going forward. 

ETA:  FL Governor race margin is 0.4% in DeSantis' favor while the Senate race is 0.2% in Scott's favor.  Scott has launched a lawsuit against Broward county, claiming that the Bush-appointed Supervisor of Elections is making up ballots for his opponent.  Trump and "Profile in Courage" Marco Rubio jumped in on Twitter to echo Scott's, so far, baseless claims.

The ballots being counted are absentee and provisional, so this is nothing unusual.  What is different is that the race is so close that they - for once - matter.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 08:42:28 am by Limey »
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Col. Sphinx Drummond

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3243 on: November 09, 2018, 08:51:16 am »

* In future elections, 1.4 million - mostly minority - former felons will have their voting rights back.  Florida is unlikely to be close going forward. 
Are you implying that ex-cons are most likely to vote Democrat?
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BudGirl

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3244 on: November 09, 2018, 09:01:54 am »
Are you implying that ex-cons are most likely to vote Democrat?

I find it awesome that he thinks they will vote at all.  Maybe they will but look how hard it is to get anyone to vote.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3245 on: November 09, 2018, 09:11:28 am »
Are you implying that ex-cons are most likely to vote Democrat?

Minorities make up a disproportionate share of the prison population; African-Americans make up 50% of the current Florida population.  African-Americans skew heavily towards Democrats in elections (Trump's approval rating among this demographic currently sits at 8%).  So, yes, I am extrapolating from that and positing that those 1.4 million ex-felons will lean Democratic.

Look at it this way: turnout of eligible Florida voters in this midterm was 53%.  Being generous, say 50% of those newly restored voters turnout (I suspect it might be higher as they have been fighting for this for...well...ever), that's 700,000 new voters in the pool.  Of those 700,000, say 50% - 350,000 - are African-Americans and they vote 90/10 for Democratic candidates.  That's 315,000 "found" votes for Democrats.

Trump won Florida by just over 100,000; DeSantis currently leads Gillum by 36,000; Scott's lead is half of that.

Even if my logic is wonky, Republican margins in 2018 are wafer thin and evaporating as the vote count moves to its completion.  It's just impossible to imagine that 1.4 million former felons are going to break Republican, and even a small break the other way wipes out Republican margins.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 09:14:15 am by Limey »
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moriartp

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3246 on: November 09, 2018, 09:12:05 am »
Are you implying that ex-cons are most likely to vote Democrat?
Yes.

Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3247 on: November 09, 2018, 09:12:12 am »
I find it awesome that he thinks they will vote at all.  Maybe they will but look how hard it is to get anyone to vote.

They have been campaigning to get their voting rights back forever.  I think they will show up.

Even so, it doesn't take many.  Scott is leading by < 20,000 votes, and that number has been shrinking.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 09:13:44 am by Limey »
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BudGirl

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3248 on: November 09, 2018, 09:50:43 am »
They have been campaigning to get their voting rights back forever.  I think they will show up.

Even so, it doesn't take many.  Scott is leading by < 20,000 votes, and that number has been shrinking.

I hope they do.  If you've paid your debt to society, your rights should be there when done.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3249 on: November 09, 2018, 09:52:33 am »
If, as above, Florida moves out of the "battleground" camp and into the lean Democratic camp, and Texas moves from Republican to battleground, Republicans will be demographically fucked for statewide elections for generations to come.

New York (29), California (55), Texas (38) and Florida (29) would give Democratic presidential candidates a base of 151 electoral college votes towards the 267 winning post.  They will also crush the popular vote, leaving Republicans with nowhere to go even with a reform of the system.

Taking the state legislatures and governorships will allow the continued undoing of gerrymandering and voter suppression.  As this process moves forward, Republicans will become irrelevant in politics, unless they reform their hard line positions to appeal to more than just the 35% base.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3250 on: November 09, 2018, 09:55:07 am »
I hope they do.  If you've paid your debt to society, your rights should be there when done.

Exactly.  The likes of then-Gov. Scott had been holding this back (actually, he made it harder).  They asked the people of Florida, and they returned a resounding result: 2-1 in favor of restoring voting rights to those who had completed their sentences.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3251 on: November 09, 2018, 10:15:16 am »
Two days after appointing him to be the top law enforcement officer in the United States, Trump claims not to know walking constitutional crisis Mike Whitaker:

Quote
Well, Matt Whitaker -- I don't know Matt Whitaker. Matt Whitaker worked for Jeff Sessions, and he was always extremely highly thought of, and he still is. But I didn't know Matt Whitaker. He worked for Attorney General Sessions.

Yeah.  Blame the guy who just left.

Also, apart from being nonsense, it's also bullshit.  Whitaker has been a frequent visitor to the Oval Office and has spoken with Trump on the phone...about replacing Sessions.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 10:17:19 am by Limey »
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BudGirl

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3252 on: November 09, 2018, 10:17:40 am »
Two days after appointing him to be the top law enforcement officer in the United States, Trump claims not to know walking constitutional crisis Mike Whitaker:

Yeah.  Blame the guy who just left.

Also, apart from being nonsense, it';s also bullshit.  Whitaker has been a frequent visitor to the Oval Office and has spoken with Trump on the phone...about replacing Sessions.

How many times was he on CNN criticizing the investigation?   Whitaker lobbying the best way for the job, he got good ratings on tv.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3253 on: November 09, 2018, 10:22:10 am »
How many times was he on CNN criticizing the investigation?   Whitaker lobbying the best way for the job, he got good ratings on tv.

...and said the things Trump wanted to hear.  See Kavanaugh, Brett.
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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3254 on: November 09, 2018, 10:23:19 am »
Apropos nothing, the ratings for the "Today" show's third hour, until recently hosted by Megyn Kelly, have gone up since she was taken off the air.
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Bench

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3255 on: November 09, 2018, 11:47:22 am »
Are you implying that ex-cons are most likely to vote Democrat?

In 2008 an ex-con plumber named Rocco used to hang out at Griff's and we would shoot the shit as one does at a bar. He recounted to a group of us how he was getting his driver's license renewed and the DMV lady asked him if he wanted to be registered to vote. He replied that he was a convicted felon and couldn't vote, but she explained that under the law at the time his conviction and sentence was remote enough that he was now able to register. He was overcome with emotion and said that he hadn't felt more like a human and a part of society since before he was incarcerated. He was literally weeping as he told us this story, and I'll confess to getting a little teary eyed as well at how genuinely heartfelt and grateful he was.

Then someone asked who he was going to vote for and Rocco responded "I sure as shit ain't voting for the n*****."
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3256 on: November 09, 2018, 12:02:41 pm »
In 2008 an ex-con plumber named Rocco used to hang out at Griff's and we would shoot the shit as one does at a bar. He recounted to a group of us how he was getting his driver's license renewed and the DMV lady asked him if he wanted to be registered to vote. He replied that he was a convicted felon and couldn't vote, but she explained that under the law at the time his conviction and sentence was remote enough that he was now able to register. He was overcome with emotion and said that he hadn't felt more like a human and a part of society since before he was incarcerated. He was literally weeping as he told us this story, and I'll confess to getting a little teary eyed as well at how genuinely heartfelt and grateful he was.

Then someone asked who he was going to vote for and Rocco responded "I sure as shit ain't voting for the n*****."


That's fucking hilarious!
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Col. Sphinx Drummond

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3257 on: November 09, 2018, 01:31:23 pm »
In 2008 an ex-con plumber named Rocco used to hang out at Griff's and we would shoot the shit as one does at a bar. He recounted to a group of us how he was getting his driver's license renewed and the DMV lady asked him if he wanted to be registered to vote. He replied that he was a convicted felon and couldn't vote, but she explained that under the law at the time his conviction and sentence was remote enough that he was now able to register. He was overcome with emotion and said that he hadn't felt more like a human and a part of society since before he was incarcerated. He was literally weeping as he told us this story, and I'll confess to getting a little teary eyed as well at how genuinely heartfelt and grateful he was.

Then someone asked who he was going to vote for and Rocco responded "I sure as shit ain't voting for the n*****."
That’s a great story. Those poor ex-cons aren’t know for making good choices.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3258 on: November 09, 2018, 03:03:10 pm »
That’s a great story. Those poor ex-cons aren’t know for making good choices.

Presumably, if you've been in jail, you've made at least one bad choice...
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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #3259 on: November 09, 2018, 05:54:51 pm »
Presumably, if you've been in jail, you've made at least one bad choice...

Yeah, you've had to work with a lawyer at some point.
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