I'll be curious to see the numbers after the election of the college Bernie supporters voting. Right now I'm hearing utter apathy and disregard for the election.
A giant part of life is simply showing up and doing your work. Sanders and Trump both engaged a lot of people who are eligible to vote, but don't normally vote. You recall both did much better in open primary states than in closed (only people previously declared to the party) or caucus states. Turnout is always a key factor, but more so this year.
A quick google shows % of eligible voters that voted for president was 49% in 1996, 50.3% in 2000, 55.7% in 2004, 57.1% in 2008 and 54.9% in 2012. When you consider how slim the margins are, anyone that can tap into that 40-45% of people that don't normally vote would have a huge advantage. However, if they have a history of not voting, they won't be as likely this time either. Even getting one in ten of those to show up and vote for you would be 4-5% more on election day, and that's enough to push over almost all swing states.
The 538 site gives Trump a 91% chance of winning Texas, so what any of us decide is moot. There are far more elections pending than just president, of course. I've voted libertarian for president since 1988, but Johnson's a bigger idiot than the idiots they usually run so I'm planning to vote for a buddy in NC that joked he was running for president. I told him I trust him enough that if he fucked me he'd at least give me flowers, and that's not true of the major candidates.
