Author Topic: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime  (Read 158456 times)

Phil_in_CS

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2016, 01:41:05 pm »
How about now?

I still think so.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
She's been dropping like a stone in the Electoral Vote map, down 10 just from Friday. This is all pre-debate stuff, but I don't think Trump has any downside in the debates. Those that support him won't care if he fucks up. The only ones watching that haven't decided are trying to see if Clinton will fuck up.

I'm also curious how accurate polling is any more. I won't answer a call if the caller ID isn't in my contact list; my voice mail says to leave a message. I will call them back if it's a legit caller I didn't have in my contact list yet. I know that's got to be very common these days, so the people the pollsters talk to are a small segment of the population. Are they actually representative of the rest of us? That's difficult to know.


Mr. Happy

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2016, 10:26:41 am »
From what I've read about Secretary Clinton from Secret Service agents who worked for her when President Clinton was in office, the term "high maintenance" would be an understatement. She's going to win, so I don't understand what all the hubbub is about.
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Jacksonian

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2016, 10:36:33 am »
From what I've read about Secretary Clinton from Secret Service agents who worked for her when President Clinton was in office, the term "high maintenance" would be an understatement. She's going to win, so I don't understand what all the hubbub is about.

Because these 2 candidates bring more entertainment than we may ever see again.
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MusicMan

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2016, 11:00:04 am »
Because these 2 candidates bring more entertainment than we may ever see again.

In the same way that the lions vs the Christians was "entertainment".


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Jacksonian

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2016, 11:42:40 am »
In the same way that the lions vs the Christians was "entertainment".


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Um, no.
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Col. Sphinx Drummond

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2016, 03:53:21 pm »
In the same way that the lions vs the Christians was "entertainment".


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No, more of a Theater of the Absurd kind of way. It's low brow performance art.
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Jacksonian

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #26 on: September 29, 2016, 03:59:40 pm »
No, more of a Theater of the Absurd kind of way. It's low brow performance art.

Professional rasslin'.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #27 on: September 29, 2016, 04:48:55 pm »
Professional rasslin'.

I'm actually a fan of rasslin', for a variety of reasons. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

GreatBagwellsBeard

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2016, 08:32:41 am »
I'm actually a fan of rasslin', for a variety of reasons.

Another closet NXT fan, huh?
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #29 on: September 30, 2016, 09:33:13 am »
So, just this week, Trump put on a derisory debate performance (worthy of a long list of gaffes and missteps of its own), doubled down on his defense of fat-shaming a pageant winner, tripled down on that at 5am this morning with a trademarked Twitter rant (alleging a non-existent sex tape) - seriously, that's what was on his mind at 5am? - has been outed for his company violating the Cuban embargo and has had the Trump Foundation outed for operating without the necessary licenses for a charitable organization (because it works with money raised from people who are not Trump).  And it's still early on Friday.

SMFH
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Col. Sphinx Drummond

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #30 on: September 30, 2016, 09:53:57 am »
You don't understand, none of that matters. He said he is "going to lower taxes, big league. She is going to raise taxes, big league. End of story."
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Bench

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #31 on: September 30, 2016, 09:55:37 am »
You don't understand, none of that matters. He said he is "going to lower taxes, big league. She is going to raise taxes, big league. End of story."

Point of order, the word he uses is "bigly" not "big league." 
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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #32 on: September 30, 2016, 10:05:19 am »
So, just this week, Trump put on a derisory debate performance (worthy of a long list of gaffes and missteps of its own), doubled down on his defense of fat-shaming a pageant winner, tripled down on that at 5am this morning with a trademarked Twitter rant (alleging a non-existent sex tape) - seriously, that's what was on his mind at 5am? - has been outed for his company violating the Cuban embargo and has had the Trump Foundation outed for operating without the necessary licenses for a charitable organization (because it works with money raised from people who are not Trump).  And it's still early on Friday.

SMFH

All of the polling post debate that I've seen has her with a small lead now.  Shocking to me coming out of the debate.  She should be in double digits.  The level of hate for her is strong in this country.
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Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #33 on: September 30, 2016, 10:11:09 am »
Point of order, the word he uses is "bigly" not "big league."

At the risk of breaking an impressive streak and actually defending Trump; he does say "big league".   It's just that his speech patterns are odd, to say the least, such that it sounds like "bigly".
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Knoxbanedoodle

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #34 on: September 30, 2016, 10:17:35 am »
I suspect he's already reached his high water mark.

Limey

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2016, 10:29:18 am »
All of the polling post debate that I've seen has her with a small lead now.  Shocking to me coming out of the debate.  She should be in double digits.  The level of hate for her is strong in this country.

I want to believe that there's a time-lag involved in the polls moving.  There's been such an avalanche of shit* coming his way since the debate that it's hard to take it all in.

* How, with all his shady business practices and personal baggage, he thought he could pass running-for-president level scrutiny is beyond me.  Speaks to the arrogance of the man, and/or poor/sycophantic counsel.

Also, the polling samples may be broadly representative, but that doesn't tell the whole story.  This week has pushed him further the wrong way with women and Latinos but, for example, any Republican who wants to win Florida is going to have to win the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade Co.  Polling from July showed him winning that group by only 4 points (37/33), and his company's apparent violation of the embargo is going to be as popular with them as a fart in a spacesuit.

Similarly, his inaccurate slamming of Ford in the debate for moving jobs to Mexico - live fact-checked by Ford's CEO - might not play well in the swing states of Michigan and Ohio.  Showing him to be out of touch with what's actually going on where those voters live.

We don't vote nationally for President (why, I don't know), so national polls are poor indicators.  You have to look at the internals to get a proper picture.  Like the PPP poll this week that ask "Who do you think pays more in taxes, you or Donald Trump?"; Trump lost that by 10 points (46/36) - so nearly half the sample think they pay more in taxes than he does.  Ouch!
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Bench

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #36 on: September 30, 2016, 10:41:30 am »
All of the polling post debate that I've seen has her with a small lead now.  Shocking to me coming out of the debate.  She should be in double digits.  The level of hate for her is strong in this country.

Even A Small Post-Debate Bounce Could Make A Big Difference For Clinton

To generalize this a bit further, with a 3-to-5-point lead nationally for Clinton, we’d expect to see the following in the swing states:

A 4-to-8-point lead in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan, which have been slightly bluer than the national average this cycle.

Somewhere between a tie and a 4-point Clinton lead in Florida and North Carolina, which have been slightly redder than the national average.

A roughly tied race in Ohio and Iowa, which have been significantly redder than the national average.
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chuck

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #37 on: September 30, 2016, 10:45:43 am »
The only poll I pay attention to is the Five Thirty Eight poll and right now it has her at 66 to 33. She is in fact pulling away, at least for the moment.

By the way, I don't think Trump's support always and necessarily equates to a hatred of Hillary. Obviously forty something percent of voters will vote for the Republican regardless of who he or she is. Some similar percentage of voters will support the Democrat. I don't think the polarization has anything to do in particular with either candidate.
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Bench

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #38 on: September 30, 2016, 10:54:18 am »
The only poll I pay attention to is the Five Thirty Eight poll and right now it has her at 66 to 33. She is in fact pulling away, at least for the moment.

By the way, I don't think Trump's support always and necessarily equates to a hatred of Hillary. Obviously forty something percent of voters will vote for the Republican regardless of who he or she is. Some similar percentage of voters will support the Democrat. I don't think the polarization has anything to do in particular with either candidate.

One of the underrated features of this election is the unprecedented amount of bipartisanship.  Both George HW Bush and Bernie Sanders are on the same side.
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Bench

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Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime
« Reply #39 on: September 30, 2016, 11:01:04 am »
At the risk of breaking an impressive streak and actually defending Trump; he does say "big league".   It's just that his speech patterns are odd, to say the least, such that it sounds like "bigly".

Wow.  That's even more nonsensical than bigly.
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