Top 10 Prospects

[MusicMan]

Baseball America has their top 10 up:

1. AJ Reed
2. Francis Martes
3. Alex Bregman
4. Kyle Tucker
5. Daz Cameron
6. Joe Musgrove
7. David Paulino
8. Colin Moran
9. Derek Fisher
10. Michael Feliz

[juliogotay]

Interesting that six of last years' Top 10 were dealt since the 2015 list was released. They were part of deals that brought in Giles, Fiers, Gomez and Gattis.

[Duman]

Interesting that six of last years' Top 10 were dealt since the 2015 list was released. They were part of deals that brought in Giles, Fiers, Gomez and Gattis.

And four of the top 10 were acquired during trades: 
Martes & Moran came over in the Cosart deal.  Martes was the PTBN.
Musgrove acquired in the Happ/Lyon trade with the Blue Jays
Paulino was the PTBN in the Veras trade with the Tigers. 

Getting this type of result from PTBN is very impressive. 

[Nate Colbert]

Read the Q&A chat with JJ Cooper here.

Some of his more interesting observations:

1. Reed, Martes, Bregman, Tucker and Cameron are "locks" for top 100 overall prospects with Musgrove and Paulino having "strong cases" in that regard.
2. J.D. Davis would be a Top 10 prospect in a lot of other organizations.
3. Tyler White is at best a "future 1B with less than profile power".
4. When asked to compare David Paulino to Michael Feliz, said Paulino's secondary pitches are significantly better.
5. Likes Michael Freeman (7th-rounder last June who did pitch a couple games at CC) so much that could see him in the big league bully this season.
6. Mentioned Albert Abreu (19 y/o who pitched at Greeneville this past season) in passing as one of the underrated prospects in the system.

Also, lots of discussion in the chat about Bregman and where he ends up.

[Jacksonian]

Read the Q&A chat with JJ Cooper here.

Some of his more interesting observations:

1. Reed, Martes, Bregman, Tucker and Cameron are "locks" for top 100 overall prospects with Musgrove and Paulino having "strong cases" in that regard.
2. J.D. Davis would be a Top 10 prospect in a lot of other organizations.
3. Tyler White is at best a "future 1B with less than profile power".
4. When asked to compare David Paulino to Michael Feliz, said Paulino's secondary pitches are significantly better.
5. Likes Michael Freeman (7th-rounder last June who did pitch a couple games at CC) so much that could see him in the big league bully this season.
6. Mentioned Albert Abreu (19 y/o who pitched at Greeneville this past season) in passing as one of the underrated prospects in the system.

Also, lots of discussion in the chat about Bregman and where he ends up.

I've heard similar things about Freeman.

[juliogotay]

And Appel would have been #8 on this list if he was still in the organization.

[astrosfan76]

Couple of things that stood out to me:

1)  On Reed -  Cooper threw out Ryan Howard-upside for the burly slugger.  I would be giddy if he had anywhere near the peak that Howard did.  He also noted the less-than-exceptional bat speed that has been mentioned here, but praised his "outstanding ability to put bat to ball with exceptional power." 

2) On Martes - "His stuff is very reminiscent of Lance McCullers, but Martes has much better control at the same point in his development."   McCullers' control improved significantly last year, so that Martes is ahead of where McCullers was a couple of years ago doesn't guarantee that he'll have better control as an MLB pitcher.  But, that he already has good control of his very good pitches is definitely a promising sign.

[Nate Colbert]

To no one's surprise, A.J. Reed is the #1 overall 1B prospect per MLB.com.

[Nate Colbert]

To no one's surprise, A.J. Reed is the #1 overall 1B prospect per MLB.com.

And Tony Kemp is #8 on the 2B list.

[Uncle Charlie]

And Tony Kemp is #8 on the 2B list.

Martes was effectively #11 for RHP.

[juliogotay]

Does anyone know if the BA issue with the AL West is on the stands yet?

[Nate Colbert]

Martes was effectively #11 for RHP.

As was Colin Moran on today's top ten 3B prospect list.

[Uncle Charlie]

So thus far we have a #1, #8, #11 and #11 out of 6 evals - not bad given the bleed of prospects in trades last year and over the winter.

[Mr. Happy]

So thus far we have a #1, #8, #11 and #11 out of 6 evals - not bad given the bleed of prospects in trades last year and over the winter.

You're right, UC. The farm took a hit this past winter, but it is still strong in many positions. In Luhnow et al., I trust. The drafts have been great, and I've been pleased with player development too.

[astrosfan76]

So thus far we have a #1, #8, #11 and #11 out of 6 evals - not bad given the bleed of prospects in trades last year and over the winter.

The two remaining positions, SS and OF, could be kind to us, as well.  It's possible that neither Daz nor Kyle make the top 10 due to their age/level, but it won't be from lack of talent. 

[VirtualBob]

And Bregman is #7 at SS.

[Mike S.]

As was Colin Moran on today's top ten 3B prospect list.

Crawfish Boxes nicely contextualizes that ranking:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/1/27/10837746/astros-moran-just-misses-mlb-top-10-3b-list

[Uncle Charlie]

Crawfish Boxes nicely contextualizes that ranking:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/1/27/10837746/astros-moran-just-misses-mlb-top-10-3b-list

Interesting read.  Good context really

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Interesting read.  Good context really

Especially about Gallo.  If your ceiling is "Adam Dunn, but worse defensively", I don't know how you're a #1 prospect at your position.

[Duman]

Baseball prospectus has their top 101 out:

Current Astros on List
Bregman 39 #11 SS out of 19
Reed 55 #2 first baseman out of 3
Marte 63 #18 out of 31 RHP
Cameron 85 #22 OF out of 28
Tucker 93 #25 OF out of 28

Former Astros on List
Phillips 61 #17 OF out of 28
Appell 64 #19 RHP out of 31
Nottingham 66 #2 catcher out of 5

71 of the players were drafted.  22 of the players were taken in the top 10 picks.  Three of those have Astros connections: Appell, Bregman and Tucker

From pick 11 through the 3rd round, there were 42 players - Astros have just one - Cameron.

4th round or later - there are only 7 players on the list.  Two have Astros connections - Phillips and Nottingham. 

The other 30 players were international signees.  Only one Astro is on the list, Marte.  He was acquired in a trade. So no Astros signed international players made the list.

 

[Nate Colbert]

On MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects list released tonight:

22. Bregman
40. Reed
41. Martes
74. Tucker
75. Cameron


Exes: 32. Phillips, 61. Hader, 70. Appel

[Reuben]

Baseball prospectus has their top 101 out:

Current Astros on List
Bregman 39 #11 SS out of 19
Reed 55 #2 first baseman out of 3
Marte 63 #18 out of 31 RHP
Cameron 85 #22 OF out of 28
Tucker 93 #25 OF out of 28

Former Astros on List
Phillips 61 #17 OF out of 28
Appell 64 #19 RHP out of 31
Nottingham 66 #2 catcher out of 5

71 of the players were drafted.  22 of the players were taken in the top 10 picks.  Three of those have Astros connections: Appell, Bregman and Tucker

From pick 11 through the 3rd round, there were 42 players - Astros have just one - Cameron.

4th round or later - there are only 7 players on the list.  Two have Astros connections - Phillips and Nottingham. 

The other 30 players were international signees.  Only one Astro is on the list, Marte.  He was acquired in a trade. So no Astros signed international players made the list.

 

Very interesting.

Minor nit: AJ Reed was taken after pick #11; 42 or so.

Seeing how high BP and MLB Pipeline still rank Appel, makes it all the more shocking that BA said he would have only been 8th on the Astros list - after David Paulino.

[Nate Colbert]

If you're too goddamn cheap to buy the BA Prospect Handbook, you can find much of the information on the Astros here:

Top 30 Prospects

Best Tools

Assorted other information here, here and here (note that one of those links indicates the Astros overall talent was ranked 2nd, behind only the Dodgers).

[mrpink]

If you're too goddamn cheap to buy the BA Prospect Handbook, you can find much of the information on the Astros here:

Top 30 Prospects

Best Tools

Assorted other information here, here and here (note that one of those links indicates the Astros overall talent was ranked 2nd, behind only the Dodgers).

The one(s) who got away: Cole Sands, Luken Baker

I am devastated that I won't be able to root for a kid out of Conroe named Luken Baker.

[MusicMan]

If you're too goddamn cheap to buy the BA Prospect Handbook, you can find much of the information on the Astros here:

Top 30 Prospects

Best Tools

Assorted other information here, here and here (note that one of those links indicates the Astros overall talent was ranked 2nd, behind only the Dodgers).

Is the Handbook available on Kindle?


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[hostros7]

Is the "low/medium/extreme" the risk that they don't reach their potential?


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[Nate Colbert]

Is the "low/medium/extreme" the risk that they don't reach their potential?

Pretty much. Here's how they explained the grades last year:

Low: likely to reach realistic ceiling, certain big league career barring injury.

Medium: still some work to do to turn tools into major league-caliber skills, but fairly polished player.

High: most draft picks in their first seasons, players with plenty of projections left or players whose injury history is worrisome. Players with concussion history have at least a High risk factor.

Extreme: teenagers in rookie ball, players with significant injury histories or players whose struggle with a key skill (control for pitchers or plate discipline for hitters) is a significant barrier to them ever reaching their potential.

[Nate Colbert]

Apparently it was "Ask the Oracle" time on twitter this afternoon though nothing particularly profound here...

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 4 hours ago (in response to whether Alex profiles as a great 3B)

 "Great" might be pushing it but Bregman can hit .280 w/15-20 HR & good D. That works at 3B. @Astros #Top100Prospects

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  4 hours ago (on Colin's future)

Moran can hit, but questionable power & below-avg defense make for tough profile at 3B. @Astros #Top100Prospects

[roadrunner]

BP released the Astros top 10 today.

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. Daz
5. Tucker
6. Fisher
7. Moran
8. Feliz
9. Paulino
10. Sierra

[astrosfan76]

BP released the Astros top 10 today.

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. Daz
5. Tucker
6. Fisher
7. Moran
8. Feliz
9. Paulino
10. Sierra

Worth it to read the whole article, if nothing else, to see Correa referred to as a "deity".  I'm not sure they aren't making up some stats along the way to see if we're paying attention, but it has some good stuff.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28343

[moriartp]

I'd recommend checking out yesterday's episode (808) of the Effectively Wild podcast for the full BP Annual player comment on Correa. It's poetry.

[MusicMan]

I'd recommend checking out yesterday's episode (808) of the Effectively Wild podcast for the full BP Annual player comment on Correa. It's poetry.

And the previous day's for an interview with Houston's own Daren Willman, who is now in charge of research for MLBAM.

[juliogotay]

BP released the Astros top 10 today.

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. Daz
5. Tucker
6. Fisher
7. Moran
8. Feliz
9. Paulino
10. Sierra

All of the lists I have seen have some order of Bregman, Reed, Martes, Cameron and K Tucker in their top five.

[Reuben]

All of the lists I have seen have some order of Bregman, Reed, Martes, Cameron and K Tucker in their top five.

Yeah, there's sort of a marked step down after those 5, to guys with more pronounced flaws or warts. Actually, Joe Musgrove strikes me as the guy with the best chance of having a similar ceiling to the top 5. And he didn't even make BPs top 10 (they cite health history concerns).

[VirtualBob]

Yeah, there's sort of a marked step down after those 5, to guys with more pronounced flaws or warts. Actually, Joe Musgrove strikes me as the guy with the best chance of having a similar ceiling to the top 5. And he didn't even make BPs top 10 (they cite health history concerns).

I am glad to see Miguelangelo getting some love. He is exciting.

[Duman]

When you look at these list, it is just a reminder that prospect is in the eye of the beholder.  Once you get past the "sure things" it is very subjective.  Some groups view ceiling over floor. Some value closeness to the majors over those in the low minors. 

I have combined the three list that are out so far. BA (30), BP (10) & MLB (30) and out of those list, there are 39 different players mentioned.  I am sure when other lists come out others will be named too. 

The last time I did this was in 2012, when Jon Singleton was the #1 prospect and some draft pick named Correa was #2. 

Here is the combined rankings of the lists that year.  I have bolded those who have made the majors.  Wow.  What a list. (49 total players)

Jon Singleton
Carlos Correa
George Springer
Delino Deshields
Jerred Cosart
Lance McCullers Jr
Folty
Domingo Santana
Jonathon Villar
Rio Ruiz
Nick Tropeano
Robbie Grossman
Nolan Fontana
Asher Wojciechoski
Carlos Perez
Ariel Ovando
Vincent Velasquez
Joe Musgrove
Rob Rasmussen
Marc Krauss
Adrian Houser
Kevin Comer
Preston Tucker
Bobby Borchering
Colton Cain
Austin Wates
Josh Fields
Brett Oberholtzer
Aaron West
Andrew Aplin
Paul Clemens
Brady Rodgers
Jio Mier
Nate Frieman
Brad Peacock
Kyle Weiland
Teoscar Hernandez
Jose Cisnero
Kevin Chapman
Max Stassi
Tyler Heineman
C. J. Lo
Brett Phillips
Chris Devenski
Alex Gillingham
Matt Heidenreich
Kenny Long
Rudy Owens
Ross Seaton

Math is not my strong suit by I see 28 out of 49 on the list have made an appearance in the majors.  57%! And some on the list still have a realistic shot of making the majors.

Not listed on the list was Kike Hernandez who has had a nice little career.

[juliogotay]

Good work Duman. That is an impressive list.
A small catch (perhaps) but has Houser played in MLB?

[Jacksonian]

Good work Duman. That is an impressive list.
A small catch (perhaps) but has Houser played in MLB?

No.

[moriartp]

He threw 2 innings for the Brewers in the last week of the season.

[Duman]

Good work Duman. That is an impressive list.
A small catch (perhaps) but has Houser played in MLB?

Thanks. 

Yeah, he squeaked in with an inning each in two late season games.

[Jacksonian]

He threw 2 innings for the Brewers in the last week of the season.

Damn it I missed that.

[moriartp]

Damn it I missed that.

It was news to me, too.

[VirtualBob]

Damn it I missed that.

Never question Duman on the Bus Tour.

[Duman]

Question me all the time. Accountability is a good thing


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[Duman]

The Guys over at the Crawfish Boxes have released their top 30 and their podcast that discuss each player.  It is a pretty good listen that is broken down in 3 parts. 

Their top 30 are:

Reed
Bregman
Martes
Musgrove
Tucker
Feliz
Moran
Cameron
White
Fisher
Paulino
Kemp
Martin
Davis
McCurry
Kemmer
Heinemann
Sierra
Bostick
West
Hernadez
Stassi
Richie
Arauz
McDonald
Aplin
Thornton
Muriel
Duffy
Smith

[juliogotay]

CB was very effusive about McCurry.

[Duman]

USA Today did an organizational report and shared baseballhq.com's top 5 prospects:

Bregman
Tucker
Fisher
Reed
Feliz

[juliogotay]

But they consider that Fisher could be ready to replace Gomez in CF by 2017. I don't think many share the opinion he is a CFer.

[moriartp]

But they consider that Fisher could be ready to replace Gomez in CF by 2017. I don't think many share the opinion he is a CFer.

From how some writers have described his outfield instincts, you'd think he was like that damn Family Circus kid out there.

[roadrunner]

Law's:

19: Bregman
40: Martes
44: Reed
67: Tucke

[Duman]

Stassi #20 catcher in BA's rankings.  Nottingham listed at 12

[mrpink]

Dan Farnsworth with Fangraphs released his top 24.  It's a pretty thorough and great read.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-houston-astros/

1. Reed
2. Bregman
3. Martes
4. Cameron
5. Moran
6. White
7. Musgrove
8. Fisher
9. Tucker
10. Davis
11. Kemp
12. Paulino
13. Sierra
14. Feliz
15. Ferrell
16. Kemmer
17. Hernandez
18. Rodgers
19. Aplin
20. Bostick
21. Guduan
22. Fontana
23. Devinski
24. Vasquez

[Duman]

BA's top 100 RHP prospects

Astros:
Marte #5
Musgrove #23
Paulino #27
Feliz #45
Albert Abreu #75 - designated as "Bursting on the Scene"

If you’re looking for who could be the next Francis Martes or David Paulino, Abreu is a pretty good candidate. The 6-foot-2, 20-year-old has a mid-90s fastball and above-average changeup already. If he can refine his breaking balls he could turn into another Astros’ front-line starter prospect.

Jandel Gustave #100

Former Farmhand Appel is #39

No current Astros made the LHP top 25.  Names of the past on the list:
Aiken #9
Hader #16

[BudGirl]

BA's top 100 RHP prospects

Astros:
Marte #5
Musgrove #23
Paulino #27
Feliz #45
Albert Abreu #75 - designated as "Bursting on the Scene" Jandel Gustave #100

Former Farmhand Appel is #39

No current Astros made the LHP top 25.  Names of the past on the list:
Aiken #9
Hader #16

Has Aiken even tossed a ball yet?

[Nate Colbert]

Has Aiken even tossed a ball yet?

I think I saw that he had resumed throwing off a mound last month.

[Nate Colbert]

Dan Farnsworth with Fangraphs released his top 24.  It's a pretty thorough and great read.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-houston-astros/

Agreed. I thought with Kiley McDaniel having left for the Braves FO there might be a drop-off in FG's prospect coverage, but now I'm interested in reading more of Farnworth's stuff going forward.

[Mike S.]

Really fantastic writeup - probably one of the best I've read in a long time.

[Nate Colbert]

BA's top 20 first base prospects:

#1. A.J. Reed
#14. Tyler White

[VirtualBob]

BA's top 20 first base prospects:

#1. A.J. Reed
#14. Tyler White

Cabrera may already have posted this, but I notice that Max Stassi was #20 in what was described as a very weak catcher field. Nottingham was #12.

[Duman]

Cabrera may already have posted this, but I notice that Max Stassi was #20 in what was described as a very weak catcher field. Nottingham was #12.

Stassi #20 catcher in BA's rankings.  Nottingham listed at 12

Duman tends to post things after someone else has already posted them.  Don't be a Duman

[doyce7]

Duman tends to post things after someone else has already posted them.  Don't be a Duman

Get directtv?

[Nate Colbert]

Sickels published his Top 20 list today:

1. Alex Bregman
2. A.J. Reed
3. Francis Martes
4. Kyle Tucker
5. Joe Musgrove
6. Michael Feliz
7. Daz Cameron
8. Colin Moran
9. Derek Fisher
10. David Paulino
11. J.D. Davis
12. Franklin Perez
13. Tony Kemp
14. Tyler White
15. Albert Abreu
16. Matt Duffy
17. Jandel Gustave
18. Akeem Bostick
19. Teoscar Hernandez
20. Gilberto Celestino

[jbm]

Kemmer gets no love at all?  He's is a good player that people should keep an eye on.   

[Duman]

Jayne at Whattheheckbobby has done a consensus top 24 based on the 5 main list.  Players had to appear on three of the list to be counted. 

The top 10 are:

1. SS Alex Bregman
1. 1B A.J. Reed
3. RHP Francis Martes
4. OF Daz Cameron
5. OF Kyle Tucker
6. RHP Joe Musgrove
7. 3B Colin Moran
8. OF Derek Fisher
9. RHP David Paulino
10. RHP Michael Feliz

I also did one but I included the USA today top 5 and the Crawfishboxes top 30. 

My top 10 are:

1 Alex Bregman
2 AJ Reed
3 Frances Marte
4 Daz Cameron
5 Kyle Tucker
6 Joe Musgrove
7 Derek Fisher
8 Colin Moran
9 Michael Feliz
10 David Paulino

So we both have the same 10 players just not in the exact same order (thought 1-6 are).  Looks pretty much like a consensus list.

[Duman]

MLB updated their top 30 yesterday.

Bregman
Reed
Martes
Tucker
Cameron
Moran
Paulino
Musgrove
Fisher
Feliz
Abreu
Davis
White
Kemp
Arauz
Celestino
Sierra
Perez
Gustave
Ferrell
Kemmer
Hoyt
McCurry
Devenski
Gonzalez
Hernandez
Duffy
Aplin
Bostick
Freeman

[Duman]

Baseball America keeps coming with the position by position reviews:

Third Base:

Moran comes in at #8 and J. D. Davis is at #12

Here is what they say about Moran:

Lowest Risk: What you see is what you get with Astros 3B Colin Moran. He’s a slow-footed third baseman who relies on his excellent arm to make up for his limited range. He doesn’t have a lot of home run potential because his swing is geared for line drives. But Moran hits for average everywhere he goes with a swing that should play in the big leagues. If a team is willing to live with his limitations, Moran can hit for average in the big leagues.

Shortstops:

Bregman #10
Fontana #54

Second Basemen:

Tony Kemp #17

[Duman]

BA's ranking of Center Fielders:

Cameron at #11
Former bus rider Phillips at #10

[Reuben]

Baseball America keeps coming with the position by position reviews:

Third Base:

Moran comes in at #8 and J. D. Davis is at #12

Here is what they say about Moran:

Shortstops:


Bregman #10
Fontana #54

Second Basemen:

Tony Kemp #17

I'm surprised Fontana would make it, way down at #54, but Arauz and Miguel Angel Sierra wouldn't.

[Duman]

and finally the corner outfielders:

Tucker #8
Fisher #16
Kimmer #29

[Duman]

I'm surprised Fontana would make it, way down at #54, but Arauz and Miguel Angel Sierra wouldn't.

Not as suprised about Arauz but Sierra surprised me.  They had Sierra ranked (23) ahead of Fontana (27) in the Astros list.

[Navin R Johnson]

Baseball America keeps coming with the position by position reviews: Here is what they say about Moran:

Here is what they say about Moran:

Lowest Risk: What you see is what you get with Astros 3B Colin Moran. He’s a slow-footed third baseman who relies on his excellent arm to make up for his limited range. He doesn’t have a lot of home run potential because his swing is geared for line drives. But Moran hits for average everywhere he goes with a swing that should play in the big leagues. If a team is willing to live with his limitations, Moran can hit for average in the big leagues.

Sounds like his upside is Dave Magadan with a better arm.

[Duman]

Sickels released his top 175 prospects in Baseball:

Astros mentioned (with his top 20 rankings in () to highlight inconsistancy):
17 - Bregman (1)
19- Reed (2)
33 - Marte (3)
36 - Musgrove (5)
51 - Feliz (6)
121- Tucker (4)
128 - Cameron (7)
131 - Moran (
138 - Fisher (9)
169 - Paulino (10)
174 - White (14)

Others mentioned who could have fallen in the 140-175 range are: Davis (11), Kemp (13), Perez (12)

[juliogotay]

Moran is, very quitely, having a heck of a spring. 

[MusicMan]

Moran is, very quitely, having a heck of a spring.

I just pray he gets a fan club called A Bunch Of Morans.

[Mr. Happy]

I just pray he gets a fan club called A Bunch Of Morans.

Well played, sir.

[JimR]

I just pray he gets a fan club called A Bunch Of Morans.

outfuckingstanding!

[juliogotay]

outfuckingstanding!

I deserve an assist on that one.

[Jacksonian]

I deserve an assist on that one.

You ride the bus for free so don't beg.  But, yes, you put the ball perfectly on the tee.

[Nate Colbert]

MLB updated their top 30 yesterday.

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. Tucker
5. Cameron
6. Moran
7. Paulino
8. Musgrove
9. Fisher
10. Feliz
11. Abreu
12. Davis
13. White
14. Kemp
15. Arauz
16. Celestino
17. Miguelangel Sierra
18. Franklin Perez
19. Gustave
20. Ferrell
21. Kemmer
22. Hoyt
23. McCurry
24. Devenski
25. Alfredo Gonzalez
26. Teo
27. Duffy
28. Aplin
29. Bostick
30. Freeman

Along with the updated Top 100 Prospects list, MLB.com re-jiggered their Top 30 Prospects list:

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. K. Tucker
5. Whitley
6. Paulino
7. Musgrove
8. Fisher
9. Cameron
10. Abreu
11. Moran
12. Teo
13. Franklin Perez
14. Miguelangel Sierra
15. J.D. Davis
16. Kemp
17. Arauz
18. Celestino
19. Hoyt
20. Ferrell
21. Ronnie Dawson
22. Freudis Nova
23. Anibal Sierra
24. Brendan McCurry
25. Brady Rodgers
26. Jake Rogers
27. Stephen Wrenn
28. Gustave
29. Guduan
30. Jason Martin

Guys still in organization (and not promoted to majors) who fell off: Kemmer, Aplin, Bostick, Freeman, Stubbs.

[MusicMan]

Rogers at 25?!?!


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[Jacksonian]

So, like many organizations they lack LHP and C.

There's a lot of higher end RHP talent.

Fisher and Dawson are the exact same player.

[juliogotay]

Rogers at 25?!?!


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Probably because he isn't the most toolsy guy.

[Lefty]

So, like many organizations they lack C.

I still have hopes for Stubbs.  Odds are against him but who knows

[austro]

Rogers at 25?!?!

Yeah, that puzzled me, too. Clearly there are widely varying opinions about his talent.

[Nate Colbert]

Baseball America has their top 10 up:

1. AJ Reed
2. Francis Martes
3. Alex Bregman
4. Kyle Tucker
5. Daz Cameron
6. Joe Musgrove
7. David Paulino
8. Colin Moran
9. Derek Fisher
10. Michael Feliz

The BA mid-season update came out a couple of weeks ago (behind paywall) but I don't think anyone actually posted it:

1. Bregman
2. Martes
3. Musgrove
4. K. Tucker
5. Paulino
6. Fisher
7. Abreu
8. Teo
9. Moran
10. Cameron

[Navin R Johnson]

I hope other GM's agree with the Moran ranking, maybe the Astros could get something useful for him.

[Nate Colbert]

MLB.com re-jiggered their Top 30 Prospects list:

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. K. Tucker
5. Whitley
6. Paulino
7. Musgrove
8. Fisher
9. Cameron
10. Abreu
11. Moran
12. Teo
13. Franklin Perez
14. Miguelangel Sierra
15. J.D. Davis
16. Kemp
17. Arauz
18. Celestino
19. Hoyt
20. Ferrell
21. Ronnie Dawson
22. Freudis Nova
23. Anibal Sierra
24. Brendan McCurry
25. Brady Rodgers
26. Jake Rogers
27. Stephen Wrenn
28. Gustave
29. Guduan
30. Jason Martin

Guys still in organization (and not promoted to majors) who fell off: Kemmer, Aplin, Bostick, Freeman, Stubbs.

So recent acquisitions Lupe Chavez (at #25) and Yordan Alvarez (at #29) were recently added to the list as Kemp "graduated" and Jason Martin fell off.

Click the above link to see the revised list.

[Nate Colbert]

What the MLB.com Top 30 Prospects list looks like with Bregman, Reed, Musgrove and (previously) Kemp all "graduating":

1. Martes
2. K. Tucker
3. Whitley
4. Paulino
5. Fisher
6. Cameron
7. Abreu
8. Moran
9. Teo
10. Franklin Perez
11. Miguelangel Sierra
12. J.D. Davis
13. Cionel Perez
14. Arauz
15. Celestino
16. Hoyt
17. Ferrell
18. Ronnie Dawson
19. Freudis Nova
20. Anibal Sierra
21. Brendan McCurry
22. Brady Rodgers
23. Lupe Chavez
24. Jake Rogers
25. Stephen Wrenn
26. Gustave
27. Yordan Alvarez
28. Guduan
29. Ramon Laureano
30. Jason Martin

Bold = Additions Since Aug. 1st or thereabouts

[juliogotay]

No Stubbs? Thought he would be in the second half of that list somewhere.

[Nate Colbert]

So BA on Friday started rolling out their League Top 20 Prospects lists. Today was the GCL's turn and the only Astro on the list was...

20. Lupe Chavez

Besides mentioning his outstanding control, noted that his FB was in the 88-93 range that may increase as he matures. A plus change and developing CB were also noted.

(Article behind paywall)

Also, from this afternoon's GCL chat:

Any Astros nearly made the list? It seems they had quite a few pitchers with power arms but were quickly promoted.

Ben Badler: One of those players they promoted quickly, Jorge Alcala, came close to making the list, and you will probably see him in the Prospect Handbook. He’s 20, so he’s a little bit older than most of the top prospects in the GCL, but it’s a big-time fastball up to 97 mph, the breaking ball misses bats and his control took a significant step forward. The Astros have been doing a nice job of adding Latin American arms to the lower levels of the system with pitchers like Franklin Perez and Albert Abreu, and Jorge Guzman regularly blowing up triple digits on the radar gun. Alcala isn’t at the Perez/Abreu level, but he’s definitely one to watch.

Guzman, Badler notes later in the chat, didn't qualify for the list due to insufficient playing time in the league.

[Nate Colbert]

No Stubbs? Thought he would be in the second half of that list somewhere.

He showed up for a brief time at #25 on their list in July.

[juliogotay]

He showed up for a brief time at #25 on their list in July.

And then went to AA and hit better than he did in A ball.

[Nate Colbert]

BA has Miguelangel Sierra as the 14th-best prospect in the Appy League.

[Duman]

From the chat:

Dustin (Houston): Where would Forrest Whitley have ranked in your list had he made enough appearances in the league to qualify?
Hudson Belinsky: I’d put him in between Allard (4) and Hicks(5).
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/appalachian-league-top-20-prospects-chat-2/#ewtSGckh0ZpUgR1B.99

On Sierra

So he’s a young kid and getting stronger, and hitting home runs is a pretty cool feeling. So he started selling out for power, and balls can carry out in certain parks in the Appy League. I wouldn’t expect a home run output quite that high, but this season was a step in the right direction. If a player is swinging uphill and looking to loft the ball, their bat is likely to be in the strike zone for less time, and they’ll be prone to swinging and missing more often. Sierra is still young and improving his timing.


Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/appalachian-league-top-20-prospects-chat-2/#ewtSGckh0ZpUgR1B.99

There is also a good scouting report on several others in the last comment at the end of the chat.

[Nate Colbert]

Just one V-Cat in the BA NY-P League Top 20 Prospects list:

19. Daz Cameron

From the chat:

Stephen Wrenn nearly made the back end of the list despite (a) the strikeouts and (b) apparently the earlier reports of his defensive potential might have been overstated ("a leftfielder's arm" and need to improve his routes were noted here).

Also just missing the list was Miguelangel Sierra, impressive given how badly his numbers tailed off after making the jump from Greeneville.

[Nate Colbert]

Three Bandits on the MWL Top 20 Prospects List from BA:

4. Kyle Tucker
10. Franklin Perez
14. Albert Abreu

Interesting that they have Perez ranked higher than Abreu.

Link (paywall I believe)

In the chat, Vincent Lara-Cinisomo mentions that pitchers Jose Hernandez and Framber Valdez were also in the running for the Top 20 list.

[Nate Colbert]

Just one JetHawk on the BA California League Top 20 list:

20. Ramon Laureano--the takeaway: not gonna blow you away in any one area but enough tools overall to be an effective player at the next level/enough of an arm to play RF and enough range to play CF.

Link (paywall)

Other notes from the chat:

• Kyle Tucker--would have ranked #4 in the league had he had enough ABs to qualify.
• Jason Martin--lack of any outstanding tools plus the fact that 18 of his 23 longballs came in Lancaster and High Desert (he hit just .231 away from those two parks) has scouts tempering their expectations for him.
• Garrett Stubbs--near MLB ready defensively/solid backup at the big league level.
• Drew Ferguson--an age 24 righty hitter putting up big numbers in the Cal don't make for a lot of respect but the BA guy did take note of his continued hitting at Corpus.
• Rogelio Armenteros and Brock Dykxhoorn--brief mentions but overall none of the Lancaster pitchers stood out.

[Nate Colbert]

Hooks dominate the BA Texas League Top 20 Prospects list:

1. Alex Bregman
3. Frances Martes
5. David Paulino
9. Teo Hernandez
18. Derek Fisher--"has the tools to one day be the best OF to come out of the Texas League in 2016"/"routes have improved to where he is an average center fielder"

Link (paywall)

Also see the discussions on J.D. Davis, Ramon Laureano and Garrett Stubbs in the chat.

[Nate Colbert]

Grizzlies on the BA PCL Top 20 League Prospects list:

8. A.J. Reed
9. Joe Musgrove
14. Teo Hernandez

Link

Exes on the list were Josh Hader at #11 and Daniel Mengden at #18.

[Nate Colbert]

20. Ramon Laureano--the takeaway: not gonna blow you away in any one area but enough tools overall to be an effective player at the next level/enough of an arm to play RF and enough range to play CF.

Dave DeFreitas' take on Laureano's defense from this scouting report posted today at 2080baseball.com:

"Can handle center field for stretches, but his routes and reads have him better suited for a corner-outfield spot."

[Nate Colbert]

What the MLB.com Top 30 Prospects list looks like with Bregman, Reed, Musgrove and (previously) Kemp all "graduating":

1. Martes
2. K. Tucker
3. Whitley
4. Paulino
5. Fisher
6. Cameron
7. Abreu
8. Moran
9. Teo
10. Franklin Perez
11. Miguelangel Sierra
12. J.D. Davis
13. Cionel Perez
14. Arauz
15. Celestino
16. Hoyt
17. Ferrell
18. Ronnie Dawson
19. Freudis Nova
20. Anibal Sierra
21. Brendan McCurry
22. Brady Rodgers
23. Lupe Chavez
24. Jake Rogers
25. Stephen Wrenn
26. Gustave
27. Yordan Alvarez
28. Guduan
29. Ramon Laureano
30. Jason Martin

Bold = Additions Since Aug. 1st or thereabouts

With the deletion of Cionel Perez at #13, everyone subsequent moves up a notch on the updated list and Stubbs moves back on the list at #30.

[austro]

Gustave at 26?

[Nate Colbert]

20. Ramon Laureano--the takeaway: not gonna blow you away in any one area but enough tools overall to be an effective player at the next level/enough of an arm to play RF and enough range to play CF. (MLB.com)

Dave DeFreitas' take on Laureano's defense from this scouting report posted today at 2080baseball.com:

"Can handle center field for stretches, but his routes and reads have him better suited for a corner-outfield spot."

Here's a third view of Laureano's defense from Bobby DeMuro of todaysknuckleball.com:

"...where he has enough quickness, athleticism, and overall talent to play center field every day in the future. His arm is average, but his reads are good and he’s aggressive on defense, the combination of which makes him good enough to stick anywhere in the outfield."

This is from a much more detailed scouting report than the one DeMuro did on Laureano back mid-summer (which I linked to then) and includes looks from his time at Lancaster and from AFL play. Good read.

[Nate Colbert]

With Abreu exiting, Myles Straw moves on to that MLB.com Top 30 Prospects list at #30.

[MusicMan]

Jonathan Arauz has been suspended 50 games after testing positive for methamphetamine.


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[Reuben]

Jonathan Arauz has been suspended 50 games after testing positive for methamphetamine.


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That's greenies, right?