Author Topic: Trade Rant  (Read 16040 times)

Astro1959

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Trade Rant
« on: July 30, 2015, 07:59:38 am »
Would have loved to have had Cole Hamels. Disappointed he chose not to come to H-town. That can only be a reflection of how players around the league felt about the Sabrematician approach our franchise takes to the game. Or he is a friend of Bud Norris. Either way, his loss. The Rangers with a healthy Yu Darvish and a healthy Cole Hamels have a powerful top two for next year. That said, baseball is a funny game. Injuries always seem to scuttle the best played plans. In this case, I certainly hope so.  But that isn't the RANT.

Astros OF for next season, without trades, likely is Springer, Mrasnick and Tucker. Unless Domingo Santana and his 320 batting average can force his way into the conversation. Or #2 prospect Brett Phillips can avoid the trade deadline and become a part of the mix. Or even if Andrew Aplin's bat continues its recent resurgence. That's a six man rotation that could be special. And it wholly discounts guys like Hoes, Presley and Grossman ... any of which has some value at the major league level.  Plus the chemistry that Springer and Mrasnick provide in the clubhouse can't be overlooked. I can get as annoyed with Jake's offense as the next guy, but he absolutely takes runs off the opponents scoreboard with his defense. Given the bats on either side of him, a Jake Mrasnick hitting .250 and playing stellar defense is more than good enough.

But the Astros appear to be showing interest in Upton, Bruce and Gomez. I get the marquee value. I don't get the infatuation. Upton is more of what we have too  much of. Big power, good speed, inconsistent ball contact and plenty of Ks. Gomez is hitting a robust .260, with less power and nowhere near the speed impact he has had the past two seasons. I don't think the Mets fail him on the physical for no good reason -- Flores and Wheeler are largely spare parts -- say Villar, Straily and Oberholtzer and that is more than an equivalent value trade.

The clear hole in the line-up is at 1b now that Lowrie will take over 3b with a bit of support from MarGo.  But I'm not convinced that the answer to the position isn't already in the organization. And I'm not talking Jon "I can't button this damn jersey" Singleton. AJ Reed is a big time advanced bat. He is doing in AA what Correa did before him (accelerating is A+ stats in AA ball).

So why panic now? Why reach for a Jay Bruce or an Adam Lind?

Luhnow and Sig have done a masterful job at building the bats for the Astros. Maybe not so much the pitching (though McCullers and Velasquez look to be top of the rotation starters). 

I'm just not in favor of moving much if any of the young talent for help in the outfield. And while I think David Price would be amazing for us down the stretch, again, I question dismantling the farm system for a guy we likely only have for 2 months.

No doubt we should be aggressive in attempting to sign Price over the winter. And keeping Kazmir seems a realistic decision if Price proves unavailable/affordable to us.

A trade for Cashner and Kimbrel has some allure. But spare me the need for an outfield bat.  We can and are winning with what we have. 

As for what to do with Grossman, Villar, Presley, Hoes, Buchanan ... even Carter, Singleton and Valbuena ... it would be nice to imagine that we could package a bunch of our AAAA guys up to return a reasonable investment.  Those trades happen all the time in fan land. Just not sure the real world will be as forgiving.

Mr. Happy

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2015, 08:05:42 am »
I like Marisnick's defense out in CF a lot. I agree that an outfield bat isn't essential. I'd bite on a Lind deal if it could get done without the loss of any of our front-line prospects.
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jbm

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2015, 08:46:17 am »
I'll be happy when this period is over.  I expect Luhnow to make good decisions, but I've never properly appreciated the whole "trade the future for the present" mentality, unless of course you know the future is overrated.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2015, 09:17:34 am »
I'll be happy when this period is over.  I expect Luhnow to make good decisions, but I've never properly appreciated the whole "trade the future for the present" mentality, unless of course you know the future is overrated.

Isn't the farm a bit overstocked?  It seems at least part of what's going on is trading some of the excess capital they've got.
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Mr. Happy

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2015, 09:25:19 am »
I'll be happy when this period is over.  I expect Luhnow to make good decisions, but I've never properly appreciated the whole "trade the future for the present" mentality, unless of course you know the future is overrated.

The future also is uncertain, so there's that. However, in the main, I agree with you.
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juliogotay

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2015, 10:10:20 am »
I'm pretty much in line with what you've written OP and I've said so. I think an OF of Springer, Marisnick, Tucker and maybe Santana can be pretty good as they continue to mature but don't discount the value Rasmus has brought this year. He's gotten a lot of time, he can play all three positions and play them well. He knows how to play the game w/o making mental errors for the most part. I didn't think I was going to like him but I do, a lot. I think he even washed his hair last week. And what I like about Marisnick besides that great defense is that he plays like his hair is on fire. Particularly on the base paths. I think he has a chance to be at least an average ML CF hitter with some power as he matures. I would be ok if Santana were part of a deal.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2015, 11:34:55 am »
Would have loved to have had Cole Hamels. Disappointed he chose not to come to H-town. That can only be a reflection of how players around the league felt about the Sabrematician approach our franchise takes to the game. Or he is a friend of Bud Norris.

Or, it could be that when he signed his contract in July 2012, the Astros were in the midst of a historically bad run, and he wanted no part of that. He couldn't/didn't imagine that, three years later, the Rangers would be mediocre and the Astros would be in line for the playoffs.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2015, 11:37:54 am »
The future also is uncertain, so there's that.

There is no fate but that we make for ourselves.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2015, 12:00:14 pm »
Or, it could be that when he signed his contract in July 2012, the Astros were in the midst of a historically bad run, and he wanted no part of that. He couldn't/didn't imagine that, three years later, the Rangers would be mediocre and the Astros would be in line for the playoffs.

Does anyone (really) know why he did not want to come to Houston?  The situation right now and going forward is so very different than a couple of years ago. I wonder what he did not like about Houston this go around.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2015, 12:09:30 pm »
Passing on Houston does not speak well for his decision making abilities.  The Astros are in 1st place and about to get two of their best hitters back from the DL.  He would be surrounded by young talent that's only going to get better for the rest of his deal.  He would be helping create arguably the best rotation in the majors.  Passing that up for the Rangers is pretty indefensible from a baseball standpoint.
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Craig

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2015, 12:21:52 pm »
Fuck Hamels. He bypassed the Astros and chose a division rival instead. Fuck him in the ear.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2015, 12:29:53 pm »

roadrunner

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2015, 01:10:03 pm »
He and his wife have family and friends in the Dallas area apparently.

astrosfan76

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2015, 01:10:18 pm »
Or, it could be that when he signed his contract in July 2012, the Astros were in the midst of a historically bad run, and he wanted no part of that. He couldn't/didn't imagine that, three years later, the Rangers would be mediocre and the Astros would be in line for the playoffs.

He chose the teams in October, but your point remains the same.  He still had the chance to come here and said "No", so he obviously had made plans for October that don't involve baseball.  His loss.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2015, 01:35:52 pm »
He chose the teams in October, but your point remains the same.  He still had the chance to come here and said "No", so he obviously had made plans for October that don't involve baseball.  His loss.

Other than Nightengale's tweet, what other evidence/information do we have on Hamels' supposed decision?

Mr. Happy

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2015, 01:39:04 pm »
Fuck Hamels. He bypassed the Astros and chose a division rival instead. Fuck him in the ear.

+!,000 Triple fuck him. I'm terribly close to pulling his mother into this, but I demur.
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astrosfan76

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2015, 01:54:18 pm »
Other than Nightengale's tweet, what other evidence/information do we have on Hamels' supposed decision?

Quote
Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 3h3 hours ago

The details of the Hamels' trade underscores: PHI had far less leverage than expected, and were greatly boxed in by his no-trade provision.

Quote
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 7h7 hours ago

Also, source confirms: Hamels told #Phillies he would not accept trade to #Astros. First reported: @BNightengale.

Drellich talked about it last night, as well.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2015, 01:57:41 pm »
+!,000 Triple fuck him. I'm terribly close to pulling his mother into this, but I demur.

I'm fine with Hamels going to Rangers. I see him as a very good pitcher but not an elite one. I'm not sure the Rangers overpaid but they did pay a heavy price. The Rangers got Hamels to be a #2 pitcher behind Darvish. I think that's right, he is a #2 pitcher that would make most clubs better. Houston got their #2 last week in Kazmir without having to pay what the Rangers did. Yes, Kazmir is a rental but I would not be surprised to see him sign on with Houston in the off-season. I am not the least bit jealous of the Rangers and there is more risk with their deal.

NeilT

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2015, 02:03:20 pm »
There is no fate but that we make for ourselves.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2015, 03:10:09 pm »
The future also is uncertain, so there's that.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2015, 08:01:14 pm »
Teams can always use centerfielders with the talent of Carlos Gomez.  Those that can hit and be plus defenders are rare, and he is capable of that.  Also, there isn't a position for every top prospect the Astros have and you never know if they'll make it.  Look at Santana.  He has had two short big league stints, where he wasn't productive.  Jon Singleton lit up double A, but hasn't panned out in the big leagues.
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JimR

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2015, 06:24:46 am »
One of the worst things about the internet is everyone is an expert, and every damn one of them believes earnestly I want to know their thoughts. I do not. Read Neil's post in this thread. He is exactly correct. A main reason the farm system now is overloaded with talent is to make these win now deals without disrupting the team on the field or depleting the system with one deal. So Phillips will not play CF in Houston. So fucking what? Maybe Springer will or Kemp will or maybe someone recently drafted will or maybe Gomez will tear it up and want to stay. That is the future, and this team, way ahead of schedule, has a chance to win now. Luhnow is going for it. Bravo.

So OP does not want Gomez. Who TF is OP? Luhnow wants him and has been pursuing him for weeks. That is enough for me. None of us knows what he knows.

Please STFU and stop second-guessing everything that happens. Watch the games, and enjoy the winning.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 06:42:31 am by JimR »
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #22 on: July 31, 2015, 07:08:53 am »
One of the worst things about the internet is everyone is an expert, and every damn one of them believes earnestly I want to know their thoughts. I do not. Read Neil's post in this thread. He is exactly correct. A main reason the farm system now is overloaded with talent is to make these win now deals without disrupting the team on the field or depleting the system with one deal. So Phillips will not play CF in Houston. So fucking what? Maybe Springer will or Kemp will or maybe someone recently drafted will or maybe Gomez will tear it up and want to stay. That is the future, and this team, way ahead of schedule, has a chance to win now. Luhnow is going for it. Bravo.

So OP does not want Gomez. Who TF is OP? Luhnow wants him and has been pursuing him for weeks. That is enough for me. None of us knows what he knows.

Please STFU and stop second-guessing everything that happens. Watch the games, and enjoy the winning.

Can I get an Amen? I couldn't agree more with Coach. I'm enjoying the heck out of winning and being in every ball game. Remember that not too long ago, we were out of games by the middle innings. Who's responsible for getting us out of the doldrums? I wouldn't give Luhnow all of the credit, but he deserves a lot of credit. The Correa pick alone was boss, as was the masterful McCullers selection. I also give A.J. Hinch a lot of credit for running a forward-thinking baseball operation on the field and in the clubhouse. I haven't heard any of the whispers of discontent that frequently popped out under Porter, who apparently thought that he was coaching a football team, which doesn't work in baseball. I love the Astros, win or lose, but winning is a heck of a lot more fun. There will be some johnny-come-lately bandwagoneers, and i say jump on the BFT. We're rolling.
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Astro1959

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2015, 07:51:22 am »
The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2015, 08:01:20 am »
The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.

Ok, it's everyone's right to bitch about the moves, but if you're going to do that, can you at least wait until the deadline is over?  There may be more moves coming that will give clarity, etc.  Look at TOR.  Their GM was by and large being bashed just a few days ago for adding another bat to an already potent lineup.  "We needed pitching...not a bat!", the fans and media shouted.  Well, a day or two later they now have Price to go with that lineup.  Let's just wait a few more hours before we judge anything to harshly. 

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2015, 08:06:10 am »
The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.
Not sure how you could "vividly recall" getting to 55 wins by emptying the farm. That's not what happened. The Astros gave up picks by signing free agents, failed to sign the remaining picks they had, then made poor selections with the few left over. Multiply by several years and that's how the farm died.

They didn't empty the farm. They stopped filling it.

Luhnow and Crane have spent every allowable dollar on the draft, have drafted well and now have a surplus of talent they may lose for nothing through rule V. Further, they have acquired solid veteran players without sacrificing future picks.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2015, 08:11:42 am »
Trades are by their nature disruptive to people's lives.  I don't know that I have ever heard of a trade where everyone was eagerly waiting to hear their name called. 

I got the chance to talk to Brett Phillips several times when he was in Greeneville. He is a great kid.  Very engaging  and mature.  I have been enjoying following him up the ladder.  I think he will be a very good MLB player some day.  But today, Carlos Gomez is a better MLB player.  One of the best defensive center fielders in MLB who also has a descent bat and will steal bases.

Baseball is a business, you have to put personal feelings aside.  You do what is best for the team balancing short term and long term based on the situation.  The last few years, the Astros chose a long term view bias and now they have shifted to a short term bias. 

The Astros front office will be judged on the outcome of the moves they make.  Most of the moves they have made up to this point have been good ones.  I will trust that they know a heck of a lot more than I do and will judge once all moves have been made and the season is over.   
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #27 on: July 31, 2015, 09:40:23 am »
Luhnow and Crane have spent every allowable dollar on the draft, have drafted well and now have a surplus of talent they may lose for nothing through rule V.

This is a compelling argument me. How much room on the 40 man has been created by these trades so far? I seem to remember that the list of farmhands coming up on Rule 5 eligiblilty was pretty freaking dire.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2015, 10:03:37 am »
The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #29 on: July 31, 2015, 10:21:52 am »
what you are or are not comfortable with is of no moment. you, like everyone else here, are a nobody.

That's right. We're just fans.
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DVauthrin

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #30 on: July 31, 2015, 11:18:44 am »
The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.

Your view doesn't matter.  You don't run the Astros.  Plus, spare me the we should continue with the slow rebuild BS.  The Astros damaged their relationship with their fans significantly over the last few years with the Comcast snafu, the move to the AL, and three years of being one of the worst teams in MLB history.  It's time for them to use their elite minor league system to upgrade the MLB roster.  Nobody knows what any of those four prospects will do as big leaguers.  But we do know that Gomez and Fiers make the team much better than it was yesterday, and watching them act like a team that wants to win the WS this year makes me smile.

Finally, as for the logjam in the outfield and first base, look at how the Cardinals, Lunhow's former employer, deals with the same issue.  It's a good problem to have.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #31 on: July 31, 2015, 11:40:32 am »
I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons.

Not picking on you personally, but just seeing this line of thought everywhere and it just bothers me any number of ways:

1. Why the concern for a specific player in 2018 when we are leading a division in 2015?
2. Isn't this exactly the line of thought many feared for Lunhow? That he would always value the future over the present?
3. If we are going to look three years into the future, let's try it in a different way. How did we view 2015 in 2012? Who was Phillips then? A sixth round pick. Three years later he's a golden god. How quickly things change.
4. This sense of loss in 2018 supposes that circumstances for Phillips, specifically, won't change for the worse as quickly as they changed for the better. It also assumes that the team's general standing and that of its other core players will not change for the better or worse. If further assumes that another draft pick can't develop on a similar path to replace what was lost.
 
It's holding all sorts of wildly variable factors constant to maximize the impact of a prospect who was a sixth round pick three years ago and is now a AA star.

Lastly, it makes math sense. Bird in hand = two in bush. Two birds in hand > four birds in future bush. Pulled that algorithm straight out of Ground Control.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #32 on: July 31, 2015, 11:41:07 am »
Your view doesn't matter.  You don't run the Astros.  Plus, spare me the we should continue with the slow rebuild BS.  The Astros damaged their relationship with their fans significantly over the last few years with the Comcast snafu, the move to the AL, and three years of being one of the worst teams in MLB history.  It's time for them to use their elite minor league system to upgrade the MLB roster.  Nobody knows what any of those four prospects will do as big leaguers.  But we do know that Gomez and Fiers make the team much better than it was yesterday, and watching them act like a team that wants to win the WS this year makes me smile.

Finally, as for the logjam in the outfield and first base, look at how the Cardinals, Lunhow's former employer, deals with the same issue.  It's a good problem to have.

To go further, if the Astros org cannot draft and develop a serviceable outfielder between now and 2018, Luhnow and co aren't going to be around anyway.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #33 on: July 31, 2015, 11:43:23 am »
Not picking on you personally, but just seeing this line of thought everywhere and it just bothers me any number of ways:

1. Why the concern for a specific player in 2018 when we are leading a division in 2015?
2. Isn't this exactly the line of thought many feared for Lunhow? That he would always value the future over the present?
3. If we are going to look three years into the future, let's try it in a different way. How did we view 2015 in 2012? Who was Phillips then? A sixth round pick. Three years later he's a golden god. How quickly things change.
4. This sense of loss in 2018 supposes that circumstances for Phillips, specifically, won't change for the worse as quickly as they changed for the better. It also assumes that the team's general standing and that of its other core players will not change for the better or worse. If further assumes that another draft pick can't develop on a similar path to replace what was lost.
 
It's holding all sorts of wildly variable factors constant to maximize the impact of a prospect who was a sixth round pick three years ago and is now a AA star.

Lastly, it makes math sense. Bird in hand = two in bush. Two birds in hand > four birds in future bush. Pulled that algorithm straight out of Ground Control.

I like the way you laid that out, especially #3.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #34 on: July 31, 2015, 11:50:55 am »

3. If we are going to look three years into the future, let's try it in a different way. How did we view 2015 in 2012? Who was Phillips then? A sixth round pick. Three years later he's a golden god. How quickly things change.


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                Wait. I never said, '' I'm a golden god.''

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2015, 12:21:04 pm »
Other AA stars....

Lane, Paulino, Patton, Towles, Lyles, and more recently Singleton....there are many others of course but just a few names to jog the memory that AA stardom does not always translate.  Prospects are, well, prospects.  There's no sure thing.

Editing to add link I just found which I'm sure Lunhow and others understand very well... http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 12:26:02 pm by Uncle Charlie »
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2015, 01:15:22 pm »
Not picking on you personally, but just seeing this line of thought everywhere and it just bothers me any number of ways:

1. Why the concern for a specific player in 2018 when we are leading a division in 2015?
2. Isn't this exactly the line of thought many feared for Lunhow? That he would always value the future over the present?
3. If we are going to look three years into the future, let's try it in a different way. How did we view 2015 in 2012? Who was Phillips then? A sixth round pick. Three years later he's a golden god. How quickly things change.
4. This sense of loss in 2018 supposes that circumstances for Phillips, specifically, won't change for the worse as quickly as they changed for the better. It also assumes that the team's general standing and that of its other core players will not change for the better or worse. If further assumes that another draft pick can't develop on a similar path to replace what was lost.
 
It's holding all sorts of wildly variable factors constant to maximize the impact of a prospect who was a sixth round pick three years ago and is now a AA star.

Lastly, it makes math sense. Bird in hand = two in bush. Two birds in hand > four birds in future bush. Pulled that algorithm straight out of Ground Control.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #37 on: July 31, 2015, 01:29:06 pm »
Not picking on you personally, but just seeing this line of thought everywhere and it just bothers me any number of ways:

1. Why the concern for a specific player in 2018 when we are leading a division in 2015?
2. Isn't this exactly the line of thought many feared for Lunhow? That he would always value the future over the present?
3. If we are going to look three years into the future, let's try it in a different way. How did we view 2015 in 2012? Who was Phillips then? A sixth round pick. Three years later he's a golden god. How quickly things change.
4. This sense of loss in 2018 supposes that circumstances for Phillips, specifically, won't change for the worse as quickly as they changed for the better. It also assumes that the team's general standing and that of its other core players will not change for the better or worse. If further assumes that another draft pick can't develop on a similar path to replace what was lost.
 
It's holding all sorts of wildly variable factors constant to maximize the impact of a prospect who was a sixth round pick three years ago and is now a AA star.

Lastly, it makes math sense. Bird in hand = two in bush. Two birds in hand > four birds in future bush. Pulled that algorithm straight out of Ground Control.
1000% agree. I've always said, if you have a chance to win, go for it. You might not get another chance, you never know what might happen.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #38 on: July 31, 2015, 01:37:46 pm »
1000% agree. I've always said, if you have a chance to win, go for it. You might not get another chance, you never know what might happen.

I wouldn't be disappointed if they didn't make the playoffs. What you have to do, IMHO, is evaluate if you have your core young players and what you need to do to surround them with veterans who know how to handle a playoff push. This team already knows how to compete and win in the MLB. But a playoff push and then playoffs themselves are a whole 'nother level of competition. If you don't invest in veterans to help, it will not happen as quickly for some of these hungry youngsters as it should. Remember, Altuve and Keuchel have been on losing teams all their careers. So you need veterans to help these kids out.  Roy Oswalt said that having Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens around in 2004/2005 helped him tremendously to become a playoff stud.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2015, 01:46:16 pm »
I wouldn't be disappointed if they didn't make the playoffs. What you have to do, IMHO, is evaluate if you have your core young players and what you need to do to surround them with veterans who know how to handle a playoff push. This team already knows how to compete and win in the MLB.
I know this wasn't the point of your post, but I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs.  Their playoff odds are at 93% and 95% per Fangraphs and BP, respectively.  We've come too far not to play in October.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2015, 01:58:09 pm »
I know this wasn't the point of your post, but I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs.  Their playoff odds are at 93% and 95% per Fangraphs and BP, respectively.  We've come too far not to play in October.

I would be too. This is a vastly different team. If they had stood pat choosing instead to aim for 2016-2017 (like the original plan), then the "Most Improved Trophy" is a nice get.

They have pushed a bunch of chips on to the table. The only trophy that counts now is the one with all the flags on it.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #41 on: July 31, 2015, 02:12:08 pm »
I know this wasn't the point of your post, but I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs.  Their playoff odds are at 93% and 95% per Fangraphs and BP, respectively.  We've come too far not to play in October.

Whoa, Nellie! I'll be happy if we're in it down to the wire, whether or not we get in. This team has accomplished a lot this year. Now, next year, that's a different kettle of fish.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #42 on: July 31, 2015, 02:16:35 pm »
Whoa, Nellie! I'll be happy if we're in it down to the wire, whether or not we get in. This team has accomplished a lot this year. Now, next year, that's a different kettle of fish.

Not me buddy.  I played the "just the tip" game before.  I lost.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #43 on: July 31, 2015, 04:47:45 pm »
Whoa, Nellie! I'll be happy if we're in it down to the wire, whether or not we get in. This team has accomplished a lot this year. Now, next year, that's a different kettle of fish.

If the Astros miss the playoffs by a couple of games or get bounced in the wild card playoff, I think it's possible to both be happy with how far they've come and disappointed that it didn't become something more.  This team certainly has the tools and the makeup to make a deep run into the postseason.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #44 on: July 31, 2015, 04:48:24 pm »
I know this wasn't the point of your post, but I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs.  Their playoff odds are at 93% and 95% per Fangraphs and BP, respectively.  We've come too far not to play in October.
Extremely? You got to give this team a chance to experience a playoff push before you hang a pennant or bust sign on them. Either way, it's going to be fun to watch them learn how to get to the next level.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #45 on: July 31, 2015, 04:50:14 pm »
Other AA stars....

Lane, Paulino, Patton, Towles, Lyles, and more recently Singleton....there are many others of course but just a few names to jog the memory that AA stardom does not always translate.  Prospects are, well, prospects.  There's no sure thing.

Editing to add link I just found which I'm sure Lunhow and others understand very well... http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Keith Ginter, Jeriome 15GW Robertson, Jimmy Paredes, Brooks Conrad, Chris Burke, Carlos Hernandez, Eric Ireland, Mike Naninni, Zeke Astacio, Jason Hirsch, ...
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #46 on: July 31, 2015, 05:22:48 pm »
Keith Ginter, Jeriome 15GW Robertson, Jimmy Paredes, Brooks Conrad, Chris Burke, Carlos Hernandez, Eric Ireland, Mike Naninni, Zeke Astacio, Jason Hirsch, ...

 I remember attending an Express game in summer 2001 where Hernandez struck out 16 players in 8 innings and Jason Lane hit three home runs.  The future looked bright!
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #47 on: July 31, 2015, 05:48:26 pm »
Keith Ginter, Jeriome 15GW Robertson, Jimmy Paredes, Brooks Conrad, Chris Burke, Carlos Hernandez, Eric Ireland, Mike Naninni, Zeke Astacio, Jason Hirsch, ...

Not to pick nits, but Carlos Hernandez is a little bit of a different case, IMO.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #48 on: July 31, 2015, 06:39:32 pm »
Not to pick nits, but Carlos Hernandez is a little bit of a different case, IMO.

I what a shame his injury was.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #49 on: July 31, 2015, 08:09:46 pm »
Not to pick nits, but Carlos Hernandez is a little bit of a different case, IMO.

Not really. Injury risk is a risk like performance risk. All sorts of reasons a AA star doesn't make it.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #50 on: July 31, 2015, 09:04:26 pm »
The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.

I think you left out the possibility that Jake Marisnick stays around as a 4th OFer for right now, and when George Springer comes back, maybe he gets sent back down to Fresno.  If he doesn't get sent back down with Evan Gattis being the emergency 4th OFer and Jake Marisnick being sent down when Fiers is added to the 25 man roster.

The matter of fact is, adding guys via the trade means that some guys who provide the chemistry to the club will have to be sent back down.

And while it may not be likely that after next year that Carlos Gomez resigns with Houston.  Given that much of the talent on the team right now is very young and on cheap contracts, I don't think it is to difficult to image that ownership deciding to try and go after resigning Carlos Gomez, as they keep saying that payroll will increase when the team is ready to compete.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #51 on: July 31, 2015, 09:09:20 pm »
Not really. Injury risk is a risk like performance risk. All sorts of reasons a AA star doesn't make it.
Exactly. A shame when it strikes but the result is still the same.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #52 on: July 31, 2015, 09:48:09 pm »
The bottom line is that most of the skilled positions are filled with young players who are committed to the Astros for a long period of time.  They are also good at what they do.  Thus, the higher level prospects in the organization are "blocked" from future advancement.  They are, therefore, better used as trade bait. The 2015 draft has left the lower levels of the organization well stocked.  I trust current management to continue to build this way.  I expect that a "waiver" trade is in the future and a competitive team will continue as long as the current management/ownership team is in place.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #53 on: August 04, 2015, 04:44:14 pm »
To really bring this thread full circle, let's visit fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-have-altered-their-fate/

This does a good job of explaining why I have changed my tune on expectations for the Astros this year. They are a different team, and by any measure, a very good team.

Concluding that we should be satisfied with something less than what we would normally expect of a very good team is the result of anchoring.

Now, the Astros could fall short and I would be disappointed, but I can also be appreciative of the vastly improved season and how much fun it was. I'm still disappointed in the result in '98 but I'm also still impressed by how good that team was.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #54 on: August 04, 2015, 04:57:39 pm »
To really bring this thread full circle, let's visit fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-have-altered-their-fate/

This does a good job of explaining why I have changed my tune on expectations for the Astros this year. They are a different team, and by any measure, a very good team.

Concluding that we should be satisfied with something less than what we would normally expect of a very good team is the result of anchoring.

Now, the Astros could fall short and I would be disappointed, but I can also be appreciative of the vastly improved season and how much fun it was. I'm still disappointed in the result in '98 but I'm also still impressed by how good that team was.

Before there was a '98, you had to have the Astros go through '97 (http://houston.astros.mlb.com/hou/images/astros50/timeline/1997_tl.jpg). That's my point. They grew a lot during the '97 campaign (that year, Daryl Kile was a beast and newcomer Mike Hampton had a break out year) that fed into their '98. And using fangraphs to base your expectations on a team that has never even experience a playoff push in the MLB? You're setting yourself up... just saying. And I'm not saying they're incapable of winning and making it to the playoffs, but every team has to crawl before they walk and walk before they run. Don't take this talented young team and make them have to perform to lofty goals just yet. Let them grow into a fine team for many years to come by learning along the way how to be that good team that is reasonable to expect out of their talent.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2015, 05:00:01 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #55 on: August 04, 2015, 09:23:19 pm »
Not basing on fangraphs. Basing it on the fact that they are currently one of the best teams in baseball. This is true based on the standings in real life games. Also appears true when I watch them be awesome at baseball.

Happens that their runs scored and runs allowed would predict that they are as good or better than their record.

They are a very good team that have fans who think they need to grow into being good despite the fact that they are very good right now.

I don't know why you stopped at 1997. If you want to play that game, it started in '91 and built to a peak in '98. Should we wait until 2022 to build up expectations?

Different team, different era. This team is legitimately good. It should make the playoffs. That is a perfectly reasonable expectation.


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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #56 on: August 04, 2015, 10:20:08 pm »
The 2008 Rays come to mind. Or the '91 Braves. Or the '91 Twins...
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Noe

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #57 on: August 04, 2015, 11:03:53 pm »
Of all the current front running/good teams, which is the youngest and lacking experience pushing towards a playoff? Not asking who is the least skilled, this is a very skilled, talented baseball team with lots of great players who will be better with experience. I guess if you expect them to have already arrived based on... on... well, the fact that they're currently winning, then okay. No problem, you're entitled.

But we're stepping into the dog days of baseball and I think what this team will learn more than anything else is that it only gets tougher from here on out. I think they're ready to test themselves and really learn what playoff baseball is like. If they succeed, all the better. If they don't, still not a bad thing... they will have benefited greatly and be ready for next season to really take on the seriousness of a playoff push and what it takes.

This is a win-win for the team. Expecting them to go deep is a bit premature right now (notice I am not saying that can't, I'm saying you are *expecting* that of them and if they don't you're going to be down on them... that is what "disappointed" means to me).

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #58 on: August 04, 2015, 11:05:03 pm »
The 2008 Rays come to mind. Or the '91 Braves. Or the '91 Twins...

You *expected* them to win early in August or just enjoyed the ride that they provided by winning? Those are two different things. Be honest.

Noe

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #59 on: August 04, 2015, 11:06:06 pm »
I don't know why you stopped at 1997. If you want to play that game, it started in '91 and built to a peak in '98. Should we wait until 2022 to build up expectations?

BTW - I found this to be a very ignorant statement based on what I was saying. Just saying.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #60 on: August 05, 2015, 09:42:43 am »
BTW - I found this to be a very ignorant statement based on what I was saying. Just saying.

I'm pointing out to you that anyone can play the arbitrary end-point game. You chose 1997 and I chose 1991.

If you'd prefer a more thorough critique:

1. Darryl Kile is totally irrelevant to this argument. He pitched for the Rockies in 1998. How on earth could his 1997 have mattered?
2. Mike Hampton was great in 1998. He was also pretty good in 1995, 1996 and 1997. In fact, 1997 was arguably the worst of those four years.
3. Shane Reynolds was also good in 1998. 1997 also represented the low water mark for him from 1994-1998
4. You know who else was great in 1998? Jose Lima. What did he do prior to 1998? Very little. Pitched poorly in the bullpen.
5. Obviously, Randy was dominate. That had nothing to do with 1997.
6. On offense, Bagwell and Biggio both had arguably worse years in 1998 than they did in 1997, though both seasons were still incredible.
7. So what made the offense so much better in 1998? Mostly, Moises Alou, who was winning the Marlins a World Series in 1997.
8. Also contributing was C4, also new to the 1998 team.

All to say, I am having a real hard time understanding why the 1997 Astros, specifically, had to exist in order for the 1998 Astros to exist and for the fans to appropriately build high expectations.

I am also having a hard time understanding how this proves any point whatsoever, as whatever experience the Astros gained in 1997 surely didn't help their postseason success in 1998 (despite a much better team). Nor did the 1998 team help the 1999 team's success or the 2001 team's success. Playoffs are a crap shoot.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #61 on: August 05, 2015, 10:00:06 am »
You *expected* them to win early in August or just enjoyed the ride that they provided by winning? Those are two different things. Be honest.

Yes, of course enjoying the ride and expectations are different. Like cantaloupes and Range Rovers are different. You can, in fact, have cantaloupes and Range Rovers. Just as you can enjoy a team's success while adjusting future expectations based on that success.

Do I think that Rays fans in early August, with a three game lead and a 67-45 record (a .600 winning percentage), were expecting the playoffs at that point? Yes.

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #62 on: August 05, 2015, 10:13:06 am »
I'm pointing out to you that anyone can play the arbitrary end-point game. You chose 1997 and I chose 1991.

But it wasn't arbitrary, it was comparable to this year. You see, the 1997 team was the first year they made a playoff push as a team. They played well, eeked into the playoff and then got drummed out by the Braves in the first round. By 1998, they were ready to be a serious contender. Like this year, I believe they will do something well, but I am not going to be "extremely" disappointed in watching them make their *first* playoff push as a team.  1991? Seriously, did you think I had lost my mind?

Quote
If you'd prefer a more thorough critique:

Actually, I'd prefer you be better at understanding my point, but as it were, it may be that I don't explain myself well enough.

Quote
1. Darryl Kile is totally irrelevant to this argument. He pitched for the Rockies in 1998. How on earth could his 1997 have mattered?
2. Mike Hampton was great in 1998. He was also pretty good in 1995, 1996 and 1997. In fact, 1997 was arguably the worst of those four years.
3. Shane Reynolds was also good in 1998. 1997 also represented the low water mark for him from 1994-1998
4. You know who else was great in 1998? Jose Lima. What did he do prior to 1998? Very little. Pitched poorly in the bullpen.
5. Obviously, Randy was dominate. That had nothing to do with 1997.
6. On offense, Bagwell and Biggio both had arguably worse years in 1998 than they did in 1997, though both seasons were still incredible.
7. So what made the offense so much better in 1998? Mostly, Moises Alou, who was winning the Marlins a World Series in 1997.
8. Also contributing was C4, also new to the 1998 team.

Like I said, you missed my point about the "core" team experiencing the playoff push for the first time.

Quote
All to say, I am having a real hard time understanding why the 1997 Astros, specifically, had to exist in order for the 1998 Astros to exist and for the fans to appropriately build high expectations.

Not a problem, I can't explain it enough that a *core* set of good young talented players going through a playoff push for the first time giving us all a good ride then getting drummed out of the playoffs is *not* disappointing to me. My expectations in 97 are similar to now... I don't expect anything but seeing this young team compete and learn. Everything else, including a trip to the World Series, will be icing on top of that expectation.

Quote
I am also having a hard time understanding how this proves any point whatsoever, as whatever experience the Astros gained in 1997 surely didn't help their postseason success in 1998 (despite a much better team). Nor did the 1998 team help the 1999 team's success or the 2001 team's success. Playoffs are a crap shoot.

Okay, playoffs are a crap shoot. So why the expectations? Nevermind, enjoy the ride any way you want. Grumble at the end if it doesn't happen the way you *expect*.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 10:18:26 am by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #63 on: August 05, 2015, 10:16:18 am »
Yes, of course enjoying the ride and expectations are different. Like cantaloupes and Range Rovers are different. You can, in fact, have cantaloupes and Range Rovers. Just as you can enjoy a team's success while adjusting future expectations based on that success.

Do I think that Rays fans in early August, with a three game lead and a 67-45 record (a .600 winning percentage), were expecting the playoffs at that point? Yes.

The fans tend to expect everything from a team, even a bad one. You know that of course. Reality and fan expectations aren't usually well aligned. But like I said, go ahead and expect great things from this young team making it's first foray into a playoff push. You're a fan, you deserve it.

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« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2015, 10:26:07 am »
The fans tend to expect everything from a team, even a bad one. You know that of course. Reality and fan expectations aren't usually well aligned. But like I said, go ahead and expect great things from this young team making it's first foray into a playoff push. You're a fan, you deserve it.

Looking at this in a different way Noe, one thing I've thought about is that some of this team went through a different experience over the last three years--getting the crap knocked out of them for 100 games a year--and it taught guys like Altuve, Carter, Keuchel, some of the bullpen, a different kind of toughness that has served them well this season. 
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #65 on: August 05, 2015, 10:40:48 am »
Okay, playoffs are a crap shoot. So why the expectations? Nevermind, enjoy the ride any way you want. Grumble at the end if it doesn't happen the way you *expect*.
Because the expectations are that they will make the playoffs, not necessarily win the pennant.

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« Reply #66 on: August 05, 2015, 10:50:44 am »
Looking at this in a different way Noe, one thing I've thought about is that some of this team went through a different experience over the last three years--getting the crap knocked out of them for 100 games a year--and it taught guys like Altuve, Carter, Keuchel, some of the bullpen, a different kind of toughness that has served them well this season.
After watching the last two ABs last night, the end of this season will reveal a lot about who handles the pressure well.  I look forward to it. 

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« Reply #67 on: August 05, 2015, 11:14:29 am »
Because the expectations are that they will make the playoffs, not necessarily win the pennant.

Not mine. They better get some World Series rings or I'm having orange and blue rainbow colored couch re-covered!

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« Reply #68 on: August 05, 2015, 11:14:32 am »
Looking at this in a different way Noe, one thing I've thought about is that some of this team went through a different experience over the last three years--getting the crap knocked out of them for 100 games a year--and it taught guys like Altuve, Carter, Keuchel, some of the bullpen, a different kind of toughness that has served them well this season.

It's a good comparison and I accept you can learn a little bit from losing. Best thing to learn from losing is this: I hate to lose! But when you are good and the other side is good too... what then? What separates two good teams in terms of a margin of winning? Is it that "I hate to lose" attitude? They both have that, so what's next? Is it skill and talent? Most if not all major league teams, even bad ones, have skilled players and talent that can beat you on any given night. What then? I say you cannot discount experience at the MLB level when it comes to winning consistently. Baggy used to call it "You don't get too high when you win, you don't get too low when you lose". You don't become a veteran MLB player to mentor younger players until you develop that attitude, especially in a playoff run.

It's valuable for them to go through this in their first year. Can they go to the World Series and win it all? Sure. But let's see how they handle playoff push pressure in August first. Sound like a good idea?

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« Reply #69 on: August 05, 2015, 11:15:12 am »
Not mine. They better get some World Series rings or I'm having orange and blue rainbow colored couch re-covered!

Eggszactly!

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #70 on: August 05, 2015, 11:15:40 am »
After watching the last two ABs last night, the end of this season will reveal a lot about who handles the pressure well.  I look forward to it.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #71 on: August 05, 2015, 11:50:08 am »
I pretty much change my expectations nightly, based on the outcome of the game.  Sunday I was positive the Astros were wining the division, and likely get to at least the ALCS.  After the last 2 nights I am back to praying they can hold on and land a WC spot.

I think I am still in shell shock from the last 4 seasons.  It is hard to believe that this team is where it is right now.   I think I am still a bit anxious that Lucy is going to pull back the football as we try to kick it. 

But my ever changing expectations have yet to lessen my enjoyment of watching this team.  Even in the loss last night, you get to see Correa make that ridiculous play in the 8th to give the team a chance...
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« Reply #72 on: August 05, 2015, 11:56:05 am »
Not mine. They better get some World Series rings or I'm having orange and blue rainbow colored couch re-covered!

Lucky you. I'll be repainting my house.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #73 on: August 05, 2015, 11:58:47 am »
I pretty much change my expectations nightly, based on the outcome of the game.  Sunday I was positive the Astros were wining the division, and likely get to at least the ALCS.  After the last 2 nights I am back to praying they can hold on and land a WC spot.

I think I am still in shell shock from the last 4 seasons.  It is hard to believe that this team is where it is right now.   I think I am still a bit anxious that Lucy is going to pull back the football as we try to kick it. 

But my ever changing expectations have yet to lessen my enjoyment of watching this team.  Even in the loss last night, you get to see Correa make that ridiculous play in the 8th to give the team a chance...

This is how I'm feeling.  My expectations were not as low as in past years, but this team has exceeded them beyond my dreams.  This has been a blast and I hope it lasts for decades.
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« Reply #74 on: August 05, 2015, 12:03:59 pm »
Even in the loss last night, you get to see Correa make that ridiculous play in the 8th to give the team a chance...

Because I have to watch the Rangers coverage, I'm sure it's nothing like what Brownie (if he's on the roadtrip) would do to make that call live. But credit to the Ranger's horrible broadcast team, they did gush at the play Correa made. I just don't get to see it replayed over and over as if I was watching it live on an Astros broadcast. But that is why going to Astros.com and watching the highlight replays is always fun for me because I don't get to see the games live any more (and no, I don't go to illegal means to watch either). I do get to hear most games since AM1300 doesn't have football on their schedule right now (soon though). I like Sparks and Robert Ford doesn't get enough credit for being one very good play-by-play announcer. His ability is my only connection to the team right now (other than Ranger broadcast and the occasional national game the Astros might land on).

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« Reply #75 on: August 05, 2015, 12:05:30 pm »
This is how I'm feeling.  My expectations were not as low as in past years, but this team has exceeded them beyond my dreams.  This has been a blast and I hope it lasts for decades.

Hear, hear! Kudos to TeamCrane for saying he wanted to build this organization the right way and invest in the farm more than anything else. I think that model fairs well for decades worth of good baseball in Houston!

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« Reply #76 on: August 05, 2015, 12:12:42 pm »
It was Ashby and Blum last night.  I agree with you on Ford, I think he is a real professional.  I like Sparks as a color guy, he is pretty meh when he does the PBP.

I tried to like Ashby and Blum, but just can't.  Brownie and JD raised the bar way to high, I miss the hell out of them, especially now that the team is must watch.   Blum would be fine with Brownie, even Ashby I don't mind with Brownie, but together....meh.

If Crane could just find a way to get JD back.....I have heard he would be interested.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #77 on: August 05, 2015, 12:23:52 pm »
Before the midseason pickups of Kazmir and Gomez, I thought this was going to be a wild ride and hopefully the Stros could make a wild card spot.  Now a wild card spot is the minimum of my expectations.  Division winner is what I'm expecting.  Last nights loss had no effect on those thoughts.  This lineup is loaded (3rd most runs in the majors) and is picking up one of the best hitters in the league at the end of the month.    The bullpen is stronger with Qualls righting his ship and VV will be added to it in September.  And the rotation though weaker without VV and partially McCullers,  still has a real good top 3 in Keuchel, Kazmir and McHugh. 






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« Reply #78 on: August 05, 2015, 12:31:44 pm »
Before the midseason pickups of Kazmir and Gomez, I thought this was going to be a wild ride and hopefully the Stros could make a wild card spot.  Now a wild card spot is the minimum of my expectations.  Division winner is what I'm expecting.  Last nights loss had no effect on those thoughts.  This lineup is loaded (3rd most runs in the majors) and is picking up one of the best hitters in the league at the end of the month.    The bullpen is stronger with Qualls righting his ship and VV will be added to it in September.  And the rotation though weaker without VV and partially McCullers,  still has a real good top 3 in Keuchel, Kazmir and McHugh.

Keys down the stretch:

1) Avoid long losing streaks. Hence why Kasmir, Keuchel, and McHugh are keys to this stretch run
2) Play .500 ball or a little less on the road. Two road losses to the Rangers are not killer, but a sweep is dangerous to their cause. Losing 2 games and winning 1 is not bad on the road. BTW - they've been horrible on the road lately. That has to improve.
3) Continue to give themselves chances to win most nights. The last two losses, they had chances to win. That's a good sign and bodes well for a stretch run.

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« Reply #79 on: August 05, 2015, 12:32:29 pm »
It was Ashby and Blum last night.  I agree with you on Ford, I think he is a real professional.  I like Sparks as a color guy, he is pretty meh when he does the PBP.

I tried to like Ashby and Blum, but just can't.  Brownie and JD raised the bar way to high, I miss the hell out of them, especially now that the team is must watch.   Blum would be fine with Brownie, even Ashby I don't mind with Brownie, but together....meh.

If Crane could just find a way to get JD back.....I have heard he would be interested.

Man, getting JD back would be just about the best thing ever... might even cause me to reconsider UVerse!

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« Reply #80 on: August 05, 2015, 01:09:21 pm »
Keys down the stretch:

1) Avoid long losing streaks. Hence why Kasmir, Keuchel, and McHugh are keys to this stretch run
2) Play .500 ball or a little less on the road. Two road losses to the Rangers are not killer, but a sweep is dangerous to their cause. Losing 2 games and winning 1 is not bad on the road. BTW - they've been horrible on the road lately. That has to improve.
3) Continue to give themselves chances to win most nights. The last two losses, they had chances to win. That's a good sign and bodes well for a stretch run.

They have been brutal on the road since July 1.  3-12 brutal.  Which is one of the things you don't want to see from a young team during the aforementioned dog days.  Unfortunately, it's kind of what you should expect from a young team during the dog days...

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« Reply #81 on: August 05, 2015, 01:30:29 pm »
like Sparks and Robert Ford doesn't get enough credit for being one very good play-by-play announcer. His ability is my only connection to the team right now (other than Ranger broadcast and the occasional national game the Astros might land on).

I agree - Ford does a great job.  Sparks is okay with color but I can't stand his PBP. 
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« Reply #82 on: August 05, 2015, 01:38:46 pm »
They have been brutal on the road since July 1.  3-12 brutal.  Which is one of the things you don't want to see from a young team during the aforementioned dog days.  Unfortunately, it's kind of what you should expect from a young team during the dog days...

Exactly.  They have 29 road games left.  And they have 14 of those games in LA, NY, MIN and TX.  They cannot go 4-25 in those games and expect to make the post season. 
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #83 on: August 05, 2015, 02:00:39 pm »
They have been brutal on the road since July 1.  3-12 brutal.  Which is one of the things you don't want to see from a young team during the aforementioned dog days.  Unfortunately, it's kind of what you should expect from a young team during the dog days...

The road trip they had right before the All-Star break was brutal. I thought listening to the games on radio that there was a sense of pressing just a little bit because the Angels were making their way up the standings. But they righted that ship with a good homestand.  One thing I heard on the Rangers broadcast last night was how the Rangers were horrible at home (getting swept by the Angels a few series ago) and the Astros were horrible on the road. I thought they would go for the cat with buttered bread strapped to their back analogy, but I was spared.

So I hope the addition of Kazmir and some McHugh getting himself more consistent (and not just being a MMPUS success story) will help them be road warriors. If not, then as mentioned by HH, they are not going anywhere this post season but back home to watch playoff baseball on cable (or iPad or iPhones).

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« Reply #84 on: August 05, 2015, 11:12:18 pm »
You see, the 1997 team was the first year they made a playoff push as a team.

Like I said, you missed my point about the "core" team experiencing the playoff push for the first time.

I know I should let this die, but 1997 was not special.

From 1993 through 1997 (with the core of Bagwell, Biggio, Kile, Reynolds and Hampton), the team won 53% of its games. There were shortened seasons in '94 and '95, but assuming 162 games for comparability, the Astros won 85, 92, 85, 82, 84 in 1993 through 1997, respectively.

1997 was actually below the average pace, at 84 wins. The only reason 1997 is special is that it happened to be the year 84 wins was good enough to make the playoffs.

I'm sorry, just not buying that the team needed 1997 to be great in 1998. The 1998 team was clearly more talented with the additions of Alou, Everett and Randy. That's why they were such a better team in 1998.

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« Reply #85 on: August 06, 2015, 01:08:28 am »
The only reason 1997 is special is that it happened to be the year 84 wins was good enough to make the playoffs.

DING, DING, DING. And now we have closure. Thank you and goodnight Louise!

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« Reply #86 on: August 06, 2015, 12:57:08 pm »
Not basing on fangraphs. Basing it on the fact that they are currently one of the best teams in baseball. This is true based on the standings in real life games. Also appears true when I watch them be awesome at baseball.

For the record, I blame you for the Astros current 3-game skid.  Just sayin'...
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« Reply #87 on: August 06, 2015, 01:07:09 pm »
For the record, I blame you for the Astros current 3-game skid.  Just sayin'...

...which is fully justified.
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« Reply #88 on: August 06, 2015, 01:08:42 pm »
For the record, I blame you for the Astros current 3-game skid.  Just sayin'...

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« Reply #89 on: August 06, 2015, 01:57:28 pm »
...which is fully justified.

Agreed. I cannot dispute blame. Won't even bother asking forgiveness.

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« Reply #90 on: August 06, 2015, 02:42:47 pm »
Agreed. I cannot dispute blame. Won't even bother asking forgiveness.

You should at least watch the Presidential debate sober tonight in penance.
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« Reply #91 on: August 06, 2015, 03:14:14 pm »
You should at least watch the Presidential debate sober tonight in penance.
Cruel bastard.

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« Reply #92 on: August 06, 2015, 03:20:15 pm »
You should at least watch the Presidential debate sober tonight in penance.

Rick Perry's not there.  Why watch?
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« Reply #93 on: August 06, 2015, 03:27:35 pm »
You should at least watch the Presidential debate sober tonight in penance.

There's a debate?
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #94 on: August 06, 2015, 03:31:58 pm »
There's a debate?

Yes - comparable shows according to www.internet.com include "The Jerry Springer Show", "Maury" and "Geraldo".  Trump vs. Bush could prove to be more entertaining than Rousey vs Correia
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« Reply #95 on: August 06, 2015, 03:32:36 pm »
Rick Perry's not there.  Why watch?

You might reasonably assume that the failure to include a comedian of Rick Perry's stature would have a negative impact on the overall quality of a variety show such as tonight's but thankfully I believe that there is more than enough comedic talent on hand to make up for such a regrettable omission.

That reminds me, Nutsie - y'all remember Nutsie? - she emailed me last night out of the blue. I hadn't heard from her in at least a year. In addition to her normal preoccupations, you know, the FDA is assassinating all the doctors who have proven links between vaccines and autism, she reports the concerning fact that her house is now under constant surveillance by black helicopters.

we have foreign troops in our country, UN trucks, and Jade H E L M going on.  There are helicopters overhead here from midday thru the night...small black ones...non media and not sheriff.  Stuff is happening here.

It took me a minute to figure out the H E L M business but once I did I had a good laugh.
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« Reply #96 on: August 06, 2015, 03:40:28 pm »
we have foreign troops in our country, UN trucks, and Jade H E L M going on.  There are helicopters overhead here from midday thru the night...small black ones...non media and not sheriff.  Stuff is happening here.


CANADIANS!!!!
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #97 on: August 06, 2015, 03:45:24 pm »
CANADIANS!!!!

I forgot to mention - the government is amassing troops along the southern border. Why, you ask? I'll tell you why. It's to keep Americans from fleeing to Mexico when Martial law takes effect.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #98 on: August 06, 2015, 03:48:12 pm »
I forgot to mention - the government is amassing troops along the southern border. Why, you ask? I'll tell you why. It's to keep Americans from fleeing to Mexico when Martial law takes effect.
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« Reply #99 on: August 06, 2015, 04:00:32 pm »
I forgot to mention - the government is amassing troops along the southern border. Why, you ask? I'll tell you why. It's to keep Americans from fleeing to Mexico when Martial law takes effect.

Tease all you want but when we're the United States of Kenya so that Obama can be a natural born citizen you won't be laughing.
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« Reply #100 on: August 06, 2015, 04:07:17 pm »
Tease all you want but when we're the United States of Kenya so that Obama can be a natural born citizen you won't be laughing.

It's a little late for that I think. Better the United States of Mars to pave the way for one of the guys duking it out tonight.

And anyway, who's laughing? Mexico's not nearly far enough south for me. I hopscotched right over that joint. I haven't seen a helicopter in weeks.
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« Reply #101 on: August 06, 2015, 04:13:58 pm »
It's a little late for that I think. Better the United States of Mars to pave the way for one of the guys duking it out tonight.

And anyway, who's laughing? Mexico's not nearly far enough south for me. I hopscotched right over that joint. I haven't seen a helicopter in weeks.

who needs helicopters when there are drones available?
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« Reply #102 on: August 06, 2015, 04:43:40 pm »
You might reasonably assume that the failure to include a comedian of Rick Perry's stature would have a negative impact on the overall quality of a variety show such as tonight's but thankfully I believe that there is more than enough comedic talent on hand to make up for such a regrettable omission.

Up on that stage tonight, Perry would have been the resident policy wonk.
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« Reply #103 on: August 06, 2015, 04:46:56 pm »
Up on that stage tonight, Perry would have been the resident policy wonk.

Absolutely statesmanlike, comparatively speaking.
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« Reply #104 on: August 06, 2015, 07:36:31 pm »
Absolutely statesmanlike, comparatively speaking.

We ought to get a gamezone thread going for the debate since it really will be a game to see who can keep their shit together...

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #105 on: August 07, 2015, 09:51:36 am »

It took me a minute to figure out the H E L M business but once I did I had a good laugh.

I was at the Astros game on Saturday night a few weeks ago and Union Station was closed as an entrance because a troop of soldiers was gathering there in order to have some sort of flag covering ceremony on the field before being deployed.  I had agreed to meet my parents and nephews in Union Station and arrived early so I spent about 15 minutes hanging outside Union Station waiting for them.  The number of people who  came up to the locked doors of Union Station, saw a bunch of soldiers standing in order inside, and walked away grumbling about Jade Helm was staggering.  At least a dozen people mentioned it, and only about three or four were obviously joking.  So much for supporting the troops.
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Bench

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #106 on: August 07, 2015, 10:22:46 am »
You might reasonably assume that the failure to include a comedian of Rick Perry's stature would have a negative impact on the overall quality of a variety show such as tonight's but thankfully I believe that there is more than enough comedic talent on hand to make up for such a regrettable omission.


I just read that in the kids' table debate Perry mangled Ronald Reagan's name.  Ronald Raven.
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chuck

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #107 on: August 07, 2015, 10:56:26 am »
I just read that in the kids' table debate Perry mangled Ronald Reagan's name.  Ronald Raven.

Perry rather puts me in the mind of The Cask of Amontillado.
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Dark Star

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #108 on: August 07, 2015, 02:30:21 pm »
Perry rather puts me in the mind of The Cask of Amontillado.

About 15 years ago - right around the time Perry was beginning his first term as governor - some guy from the TDIC and I were having a conversation about something-or-other at a gathering one night, and for some reason Perry's name came up.

I told the guy I wasn't all that familiar with the new governor at that point, and the guy told me all I needed to know was that Perry was "as dumb as a box of rocks".  This was one of his supporters, now.

All the way up to now, I still think about that guy's assessment of Perry, all those years ago.
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NeilT

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #109 on: August 07, 2015, 06:30:50 pm »
About 15 years ago - right around the time Perry was beginning his first term as governor - some guy from the TDIC and I were having a conversation about something-or-other at a gathering one night, and for some reason Perry's name came up.

I told the guy I wasn't all that familiar with the new governor at that point, and the guy told me all I needed to know was that Perry was "as dumb as a box of rocks".  This was one of his supporters, now.

All the way up to now, I still think about that guy's assessment of Perry, all those years ago.

Perry is one of the canniest politicians I've ever seen. 
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Lefty

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #110 on: August 07, 2015, 07:06:53 pm »
I thought this was a fucking baseball forum
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austro

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #111 on: August 07, 2015, 08:02:30 pm »
I thought this was a fucking baseball forum

That's what Perry wants you to think.
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Lefty

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #112 on: August 07, 2015, 08:08:17 pm »
That's what Perry wants you to think.

Gaylord?
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chuck

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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #113 on: August 07, 2015, 08:50:03 pm »
Gaylord?

The use of Vaseline is prevalent in either case, surely.
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Re: Trade Rant
« Reply #114 on: August 07, 2015, 09:38:59 pm »
Gaylord?

No, Jim. Gaylord gets all the attention!