Questions for Mike Fast

[Mr. Happy]

Since our thread under BP got off track, I decided to start another thread. Post your questions here. We really appreciate the answers that he gives to us. Please, no snarky or stupid questions, or questions that you know he can't answer, i.e., about specific strategies or players, etc.

[subnuclear]

Is there anything in particular that you learn from fan sites? Do you have some, even non-Astros related, favorites?

[Jose Cruz III]

Did the switch from the NL to AL alter strategies? (Minor leagues, drafting, etc.)

[mikefast]

Did the switch from the NL to AL alter strategies? (Minor leagues, drafting, etc.)

In general, no, in that we still try to get the best players available, and that's the same in both leagues.  It did give us room to move position players to designated hitter.

[mikefast]

Is there anything in particular that you learn from fan sites? Do you have some, even non-Astros related, favorites?

As a fan of the team, I enjoy reading what people write and think about the team.  I watch a bunch of Astros games and care a lot about the team, and so it's fun to hang out with other people who do that, too.  I grew up a Royals fan, so the blogs and fan sites are also an opportunity for me to learn more about Astros history.

Beyond that, on a more work-related level, it's nice to keep the pulse of how the fans are feeling.  Well, mostly.  Given that we have been losing like crazy, obviously nobody feels very good about that, the front office included.  But it's helpful to hear what people think about the rebuilding effort.  I can't say that I or anyone else really looks to fan sites for advice on specific player moves, but it is helpful sometimes to have ideas from other sources swirling around in my head.  And occasionally people will do in-depth research pieces that prompt thoughts.

Astros sites, besides this one, that I visit fairly regularly...
Crawfish Boxes
Astros County
What the Heck, Bobby

non-Astros sites...
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball America

and whatever interesting stuff that people link to on Twitter.

[moriartp]

What have been the successes & hurdles of the tandem starter system so far? Do you expect to continue the system next season?

[subnuclear]

I can't say that I or anyone else really looks to fan sites for advice on specific player moves . . .

This is the most reassuring thing you've said.

[NeilT]

I'm curious how you come up with things to work on.  Does someone suddenly rush into your office yelling that the bullpen needs immediate attention and he needs a 50-page memo on everyone in the organization and the free world who might have an arm!  Now!  Or do you sort of meander in and while discussing last night's game in the coffee bar someone says you know I think we ought to think a bit about the bullpen, and then a week or so later you might start thinking about what makes a good bullpen and maybe a month or so after you start thinking about who might be available in 2015?  I don't mean to be flip or focus on the bullpen, I just don't know how to ask what I'm asking without an illustration.  Are things reactive or contemplative or some of both?

[T. J.]

What software do you use for your querying/modeling/statistical analysis? 

[NeilT]

What software do you use for your querying/modeling/statistical analysis? 

Duh, what a silly question.  They use several different programs, but Mike is partial to the beta version of Baseball Pro Numbers 3.2.   He says the little league version is largely unusable for him because of the 60' base paths.  They discovered that late last season with Villar.  The scouting staff use the backs of envelopes and empty cigarette packs.

[Waldo]

As a fan of the team, I enjoy reading what people write and think about the team.  I watch a bunch of Astros games and care a lot about the team, and so it's fun to hang out with other people who do that, too.  I grew up a Royals fan, so the blogs and fan sites are also an opportunity for me to learn more about Astros history.

Beyond that, on a more work-related level, it's nice to keep the pulse of how the fans are feeling.  Well, mostly.  Given that we have been losing like crazy, obviously nobody feels very good about that, the front office included.  But it's helpful to hear what people think about the rebuilding effort.  I can't say that I or anyone else really looks to fan sites for advice on specific player moves, but it is helpful sometimes to have ideas from other sources swirling around in my head.  And occasionally people will do in-depth research pieces that prompt thoughts.

Astros sites, besides this one, that I visit fairly regularly...
Crawfish Boxes
Astros County
What the Heck, Bobby

non-Astros sites...
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball America

and whatever interesting stuff that people link to on Twitter.

How many people in the front office read fan sites regularly?  Do the Astros know you're posting here, and if so, did you have to get permission?

[MusicMan]

Besides using a time machine to go back and study mathematics/statistics or law, what advice do you have for anyone interested in pursuing your career?

[JimR]

Besides using a time machine to go back and study mathematics/statistics or law, what advice do you have for anyone interested in pursuing your career?

know a GM well.

[Duman]

Mike - thanks for the Q&A. 

We are aware that stats below full season ball can be misleading.  Are there any specific stats that you find useful at the short season level?

With apps like gamechanger on the market now, more amateur stats (high school and travel ball) are available earlier. Does that help or just muddy the waters because of a lack of inter-rater reliability?

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Is there a mathematical explanation as to why the Astros played well enough to have a winning record last year in games played on Wednesdays? Or is it safe to assume it was the invisible intervening hand of Woden.

[mikefast]

Hey, guys.  A lot of these questions venture into questions about our methods that I won't answer, but I'll try to get to some of the others.

Besides using a time machine to go back and study mathematics/statistics or law, what advice do you have for anyone interested in pursuing your career?

I don't know your situation, but in general, people who do analytical work for teams are people who have spent many years doing baseball research in their spare time because they love figuring out how baseball works and can't help but be constantly digging into the data to see what answers they can find.  (The exception to that would be for database gurus.  If you can be the database architect, you might not have to be inquisitive about baseball.)

If you are that type of person, here are some additional qualifications that are helpful, roughly in order of importance:
1. Communication and interpersonal skills (it doesn't do any good to have ideas if you can't communicate them effectively and aren't a good listener; a lot of people in this role will be nerdy, but it's a huge help if you can talk with coaches and scouts in their language)
2. Research skills, good logical thinker and problem solver (there are a lot more people who do bad baseball research than those who do it well)
3. Database skills
4. Baseball knowledge, including video work, scouting knowledge, etc.
5. Web development skills
6. Statistical skills
7. Business acumen
8. Leadership and people management skills

[mikefast]

know a GM well.

I think that's almost universally false for people in my role.  Maybe there's an exception I can't remember, but I think we were all baseball outsiders.  Very few of us played baseball beyond high school, and very few went to Ivy League schools or other traditional college pipelines into baseball front offices.

[mikefast]

I'm curious how you come up with things to work on.  Does someone suddenly rush into your office yelling that the bullpen needs immediate attention and he needs a 50-page memo on everyone in the organization and the free world who might have an arm!  Now!  Or do you sort of meander in and while discussing last night's game in the coffee bar someone says you know I think we ought to think a bit about the bullpen, and then a week or so later you might start thinking about what makes a good bullpen and maybe a month or so after you start thinking about who might be available in 2015?  I don't mean to be flip or focus on the bullpen, I just don't know how to ask what I'm asking without an illustration.  Are things reactive or contemplative or some of both?

We have long-range projects where we are building capabilities.  We have more medium-term projects that are largely driven by the baseball calendar.  Amateur draft in June, international signing deadline at the beginning of July, trade deadline at the end of July, 40-man roster in mid-November, winter meetings, offseason free agents, spring training, advance scouting during the season based on upcoming opponents, etc.  And we have short-term projects that can be driven by specific events that happen to the team and organization, whether places that the team is falling short, questions that the coaches or managers have, potential transactions that are being evaluated, needs of prospects or teams in the system, etc.

[chuck]

We have long-range projects where we are building capabilities.  We have more medium-term projects that are largely driven by the baseball calendar.  Amateur draft in June, international signing deadline at the beginning of July, trade deadline at the end of July, 40-man roster in mid-November, winter meetings, offseason free agents, spring training, advance scouting during the season based on upcoming opponents, etc.  And we have short-term projects that can be driven by specific events that happen to the team and organization, whether places that the team is falling short, questions that the coaches or managers have, potential transactions that are being evaluated, needs of prospects or teams in the system, etc.

How much of what you do is driven by requests and needs that come from the GM and the front office versus requests and needs that come from the field via the manager and the coaches? I ask because I had for some reason assumed that you and your colleagues that deal in data would interface exclusively with the front office but you have mentioned several times that you work directly with and need to be able to talk to coaches.

So I'm wondering how much of what you do comes straight from the field via the manager and the coaches (across all levels of the organization) and how does what they request and require differ from what interests the GM and the front office?

[mikefast]

How much of what you do is driven by requests and needs that come from the GM and the front office versus requests and needs that come from the field via the manager and the coaches? I ask because I had for some reason assumed that you and your colleagues that deal in data would interface exclusively with the front office but you have mentioned several times that you work directly with and need to be able to talk to coaches.

So I'm wondering how much of what you do comes straight from the field via the manager and the coaches (across all levels of the organization) and how does what they request and require differ from what interests the GM and the front office?

We certainly do a lot of both.  It's probably not appropriate for me to give a more detailed breakdown than that.

[JimR]

I think that's almost universally false for people in my role.  Maybe there's an exception I can't remember, but I think we were all baseball outsiders.  Very few of us played baseball beyond high school, and very few went to Ivy League schools or other traditional college pipelines into baseball front offices.

that was a joke

[Uncle Charlie]

Do you ever travel with the team?  If so, what would prompt that versus doing the work from headquarters?

[mikefast]

Do you ever travel with the team?  If so, what would prompt that versus doing the work from headquarters?

I don't typically travel with team to road games during the season.  I can stay in touch with our coaching staff by email or phone while they are on the road, and if there's an issue where we need to go over something in person, it will usually keep until the team is back at home.

I'll go down to Kissimmee for part of spring training since that is a good place to see almost everyone in the organization at one time, i.e., players, coaches, etc.

[das]

Hi, Mike, thanks for taking the time to answer some of our questions.  Do the Astros plan to roll out the welcome wagon for the Bud Selig Farewell Tour?

[Jose Cruz III]

You probably can't/won't answer this, but do the Astros have any interest in getting in the Tanaka sweepstakes?

[Mr. Happy]

You probably can't/won't answer this, but do the Astros have any interest in getting in the Tanaka sweepstakes?

According to mlb.com, the Astros were not among the five clubs that have extended offers, which include Yankmees, Dojers, FTC, Snakes and ChiSox.

[Jose Cruz III]

According to mlb.com, the Astros were not among the five clubs that have extended offers, which include Yankmees, Dojers, FTC, Snakes and ChiSox.

At least he isn't in the AL West. Wish the Astros weren't.

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike- as we get into spring training, who from the last draft class should we be watching?

[mikefast]

Mike- as we get into spring training, who from the last draft class should we be watching?

I think it will be interesting to see how the battles go for the last few position player spots on the full-season clubs.  But I don't necessarily want to handicap any names there.

Apart from the obvious names at the top of the draft class, I was really pleased to see how Tyler White performed at all three clubs he played with last year.  Same for J.D. Osborne and Tyler Brunnemann.  All those guys, being very late round picks, have the deck stacked against them, so it was fun to see them step up and play well.  Kyle Westwood is a guy who was drafted higher but may not be on the national radar despite a very good performance.

Of course, we like all the guys we signed, and we hope the ones who didn't step up this past year like we thought they would will continue to work and do better next year.  Dan Gulbransen is a good example of that from the year before--a guy who struggled some in his first pro season but broke through in 2013 to put up numbers more consistent with what we expected he could do when we drafted him.

[NeilT]

I think it will be interesting to see how the battles go for the last few position player spots on the full-season clubs.  But I don't necessarily want to handicap any names there.

Apart from the obvious names at the top of the draft class, I was really pleased to see how Tyler White performed at all three clubs he played with last year.  Same for J.D. Osborne and Tyler Brunnemann.  All those guys, being very late round picks, have the deck stacked against them, so it was fun to see them step up and play well.  Kyle Westwood is a guy who was drafted higher but may not be on the national radar despite a very good performance.

Of course, we like all the guys we signed, and we hope the ones who didn't step up this past year like we thought they would will continue to work and do better next year.  Dan Gulbransen is a good example of that from the year before--a guy who struggled some in his first pro season but broke through in 2013 to put up numbers more consistent with what we expected he could do when we drafted him.

Mike, thanks, that's a whole group of people I wouldn't normally think about.  Now if you could just hurry up the calendar . . .

[Reuben]

Yes, thanks Mike, very interesting stuff. I saw Kyle Westwood pitch at TC in the NYPL playoffs and was struck by his mound presence, as well as his remarkable resemblance to Doug Brocail. That night, though, neither he nor Sanudo touched 90 on the Joe's stadium gun. Is it a bit slow, or were those guys really dominating with 88 mph fastballs (and breaking stuff of course)?

Definitely some intriguing arms from that TC roster. Thurman doesn't seem to get much recognition nationally, either, for a 2/1 pick.

[mikefast]

Yes, thanks Mike, very interesting stuff. I saw Kyle Westwood pitch at TC in the NYPL playoffs and was struck by his mound presence, as well as his remarkable resemblance to Doug Brocail. That night, though, neither he nor Sanudo touched 90 on the Joe's stadium gun. Is it a bit slow, or were those guys really dominating with 88 mph fastballs (and breaking stuff of course)?

Definitely some intriguing arms from that TC roster. Thurman doesn't seem to get much recognition nationally, either, for a 2/1 pick.

That sounds like a slow gun.

[HudsonHawk]

That sounds like a slow gun.

They have the REALLY slow gun at the yard in Midland.  The little pitch sign in the outfield will consistently read:  "Fastball  68 MPH"

[Mr. Happy]

Mike:

Could you please describe the process of deciding whether or not to move a player up or down, whether within the minor leagues and between the major and minor leagues? How does it begin? Who initiates it? How long does it take? Who has to sign off on it? Thanks as always!

[mikefast]

Mike:

Could you please describe the process of deciding whether or not to move a player up or down, whether within the minor leagues and between the major and minor leagues? How does it begin? Who initiates it? How long does it take? Who has to sign off on it? Thanks as always!

From the majors to the minors or vice versa, Jeff is the one who makes that decision.  Within the minors, it's Quinton McCracken (director of player development).  Of course, they take input from a lot of people on all those decisions.  Immediate roster needs will often be the short-term catalyst that drives promotions and demotions, but there is a long-term planning aspect to it, also.  When a need arises, it's not like Jeff or Quinton have to formulate a plan from scratch at that point.  We as a staff both in the front office and in the minor leagues are constantly thinking about this.  When it happens, it's as simple as a phone call and a plane flight, so it doesn't take that long to make it happen once the decision is made.  If it's a promotion, usually it's the manager of the old team delivering the good news to the player.

[Navin R Johnson]

Mike,

Has there been any fallout from the Phillies Ben Weltzer of Oregon State fiasco?  Not sure what can be done, but it seems like Philly really hacked off a bunch of people.

[mikefast]

Has there been any fallout from the Phillies Ben Weltzer of Oregon State fiasco?  Not sure what can be done, but it seems like Philly really hacked off a bunch of people.

I don't know, and if I did, I probably couldn't say anything.

[Reuben]

Mike, this is probably as much a "general MLB team" question as an "Astros" question. In the Draft, things get rather tough to predict after the first 15-25 picks. How many candidates do the Astros/teams typically "zero in" on for their 2nd pick (let's say a pick in the #30-45 range)? Do you try to meet all of these candidates in person, as you would with the first pick? Is there ever a circumstance where the Astros, or any team, would take a player who unexpectedly falls to them in the sandwich/high 2nd round spot essentially on reputation/stats alone, ie. a kid they didn't scout heavily in person?

[mikefast]

Mike, this is probably as much a "general MLB team" question as an "Astros" question. In the Draft, things get rather tough to predict after the first 15-25 picks. How many candidates do the Astros/teams typically "zero in" on for their 2nd pick (let's say a pick in the #30-45 range)? Do you try to meet all of these candidates in person, as you would with the first pick? Is there ever a circumstance where the Astros, or any team, would take a player who unexpectedly falls to them in the sandwich/high 2nd round spot essentially on reputation/stats alone, ie. a kid they didn't scout heavily in person?

The guys we take in the 30th round, we've scouted in person certainly once if not more.  The guys we take in the 5th round will have been seen multiple times by the area scout and also by supervisors/crosscheckers.  The guys we take in the second round we will have heavily scouted.  So, no, there is basically zero chance that we wouldn't have heavily scouted a player who went in the first couple rounds.

We might spend less resources scouting a guy we think will be the 10th pick than we will on a guy we think will be the 5th pick or the 25th pick, but honestly when the year starts, you don't know where guys will end up, so you have to scout them all.  Even the year before that, our scouts will have seen them play.  And maybe a late injury suddenly changes their draft status, so you have to be prepared, even if you don't expect the guy to fall to you.

[BudGirl]

Thanks for coming back and answering everyone's questions.

I just want to ask one questions, who the Astros are going to pick #1?  Of course, I fully expect you to tell me, "We don't know at this time."

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike, do the Astros or other organizations conduct post-draft analysis at certain time intervals to determine if things were missed or if scouting methods should be altered?  This is relatively common in certain industries as an improvement process, but I'm unsure if it happens in baseball.  I wouldn't think you could do a look back analysis any less than 3 years after the draft when you have a better idea of if the draft pick is maturing, but what do I know...

[mikefast]

Mike, do the Astros or other organizations conduct post-draft analysis at certain time intervals to determine if things were missed or if scouting methods should be altered?  This is relatively common in certain industries as an improvement process, but I'm unsure if it happens in baseball.  I wouldn't think you could do a look back analysis any less than 3 years after the draft when you have a better idea of if the draft pick is maturing, but what do I know...

We certainly do conduct regular post-draft analysis.  I can't comment on the specifics.

[mikefast]

Thanks for coming back and answering everyone's questions.

I just want to ask one questions, who the Astros are going to pick #1?  Of course, I fully expect you to tell me, "We don't know at this time."

Can't comment on that one.

[juliogotay]

Do you enjoy reading our Draft Thread?

[Uncle Charlie]

Picking up from our Springer thread regarding batting order, you addressed decisions around promotion lay with Jeff L for the upper levels.  When promoting a kid for the first time, especially one with high long term expectations, is there a discussion between the front office and manager about how to introduce (either ease or throw into deep water) him into the new level or is that left largely to the manager?  For instance, a number of starting pitchers are usually promoted on the road for a start or put in the bully to adjust at the ML level.  Position players historically seem to be put lower in the order with less pressure, though that wasn't what happened in Springer's case.  Can you comment about the Springer situation and why he was put in the 4 hole?

[mikefast]

Guys, if you're asking questions about a specific player or decision, I'm likely not able to answer that.  I understand why you're interested in those questions, but they are up to Jeff, Bo, etc., to address, not me.

I can answer more process-oriented or organizational philosophy questions, if they aren't basically the former kind of question in disguise.

[Mr. Happy]

Guys, if you're asking questions about a specific player or decision, I'm likely not able to answer that.  I understand why you're interested in those questions, but they are up to Jeff, Bo, etc., to address, not me.

I can answer more process-oriented or organizational philosophy questions, if they aren't basically the former kind of question in disguise.

Mike:

Thanks for clarifying what types of questions that you can answer. Everyone, myself included, needs to keep this in mind when posing your questions to Mike, who's been very gracious to us. Understand that most of the people here are rabid Astros fans who want the team to succeed in the worst way. Some of us may be growing a bit impatient.

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike:

Thanks for clarifying what types of questions that you can answer. Everyone, myself included, needs to keep this in mind when posing your questions to Mike, who's been very gracious to us. Understand that most of the people here are rabid Astros fans who want the team to succeed in the worst way. Some of us may be growing a bit impatient.

Apologies Mike.  I really was trying to ask a process type question with a secondary question about a specific player, the latter of which I was not sure you would be able to answer;  I honestly wasn't attempting to get one past you in disguise.  I really am interested in the process of bringing a player up - particularly highly touted players, and how that works.  While Springer is one of the first, there are a line of them behind him including DDS, Appel, Correa, Folty, etc due to the well stocked system that the Astros have been able to put together.  While I understand if you won't be able to answer it at this time due to the other thread and discussion around Springer, if at the right time you could tell us about the process of how that happens from a transition perspective it would be great.

Like Happy says - I and others really appreciate the time you put in here, the open communication and the insight you have been able to give to us and wish that to continue.

[austro]

I mostly just lurk in the serious discussions, but just to echo others' thoughts, I truly appreciate Mike's (and, by extension, the Astros') willingness to interact with us here. It's a pleasure to learn from a knowledgeable source about the decision-making processes of a front office.

[mikefast]

Apologies Mike.  I really was trying to ask a process type question with a secondary question about a specific player, the latter of which I was not sure you would be able to answer;  I honestly wasn't attempting to get one past you in disguise.  I really am interested in the process of bringing a player up - particularly highly touted players, and how that works.  While Springer is one of the first, there are a line of them behind him including DDS, Appel, Correa, Folty, etc due to the well stocked system that the Astros have been able to put together.  While I understand if you won't be able to answer it at this time due to the other thread and discussion around Springer, if at the right time you could tell us about the process of how that happens from a transition perspective it would be great.

Like Happy says - I and others really appreciate the time you put in here, the open communication and the insight you have been able to give to us and wish that to continue.

No problem.

I will say that there is a lot of planning that goes into bringing up prospects and putting them in the right position to succeed.  But the best of plans also don't usually survive contact with the enemy (whether that be opposing teams, injuries, extra-inning games that sap the bullpen, guys getting nicked up for a few days, or whatever).

[hostros7]

Mike,

Have you guys done any studies or analysis on pitcher durability in order to better understand what types of pitchers may be at increased risk for major arm injuries (e.g. Left handed college pitchers that throw a split finger and threw over 100 pitches in greater than 50% of their college starts have a 50% greater chance of having tommy john surgery in seven years -- made up example obviously)?  And, if so, what type of weighting would you ascribe to such an analysis in making draft or free agent acquisitions? 

It sounds like a ton of data-mining and not comprehensively instructive but could prove to be one of the myriad of factors in rating out draft options/signings when, for example, two pitchers have similar ceilings and floors, but one's pitching array and/or usage history suggests he might present a higher risk of injury.

Thanks for your contribution to the site and being a great ambassador for the front office.

[Reuben]

I'm actually curious if they dig back into a pitcher's usage even prior to high school - obviously there wouldn't be "data" as much as accounts from the players themselves, their parents, ex-coaches etc.

Particularly in light of many MLB execs/coaches now claiming that they think a lot of the current rash of TJ surgeries can be traced back to overuse in adolescence, throwing a curve or slider too early, and so on, as opposed to high pitch counts after they reach college or the pros.

[austro]

I'm actually curious if they dig back into a pitcher's usage even prior to high school - obviously there wouldn't be "data" as much as accounts from the players themselves, their parents, ex-coaches etc.

Particularly in light of many MLB execs/coaches now claiming that they think a lot of the current rash of TJ surgeries can be traced back to overuse in adolescence, throwing a curve or slider too early, and so on, as opposed to high pitch counts after they reach college or the pros.

I am strongly of the opinion that kids should play a bunch of different sports in different seasons until they're in HS, and maybe even then. I think there's a lot to be said for exercising different muscles and in different patterns.

[Mr. Happy]

I am strongly of the opinion that kids should play a bunch of different sports in different seasons until they're in HS, and maybe even then. I think there's a lot to be said for exercising different muscles and in different patterns.

I couldn't agree more.

[HudsonHawk]

I am strongly of the opinion that kids should play a bunch of different sports in different seasons until they're in HS, and maybe even then. I think there's a lot to be said for exercising different muscles and in different patterns.

I completely agree.  The thing that helped me the most as a catcher was playing basketball.

Of course, I think kids should go fishing, go on vacation with their families, read books, etc.  All baseball, all the time, not only makes Jack a dull boy, but it makes him one dimensional.

[Duman]

I agree with all of this. However, it is not just kids and parents who are making the choices to specialize.  Coaches and school administrations have a role as well.    For years, my son and his buddies played football, basketball and soccer as much as possible.  However, once they hit middle school.  All of the boys started choosing to play fewer sports.  Not because they enjoyed them less but because of time commitments required from coaches.  Football coaches want kids doing weight training/conditioning year round.  Not just any program - their program.  Basketball coaches want kids playing travel/aau during the summer and then the basketball season is the longest in the school year. 

Parents have limited resources and time, so they encourage/tell the kid to make choices. It is not a black and white issue.  Things rarely are.

[Mr. Happy]

I completely agree.  The thing that helped me the most as a catcher was playing basketball.

Of course, I think kids should go fishing, go on vacation with their families, read books, etc.  All baseball, all the time, not only makes Jack a dull boy, but it makes him one dimensional.

Basketball helped me too.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I played a lot of basketball. It never helped me hit a curve but I agree with the point.

[HudsonHawk]

I agree with all of this. However, it is not just kids and parents who are making the choices to specialize.  Coaches and school administrations have a role as well.    For years, my son and his buddies played football, basketball and soccer as much as possible.  However, once they hit middle school.  All of the boys started choosing to play fewer sports.  Not because they enjoyed them less but because of time commitments required from coaches.  Football coaches want kids doing weight training/conditioning year round.  Not just any program - their program.  Basketball coaches want kids playing travel/aau during the summer and then the basketball season is the longest in the school year. 

Parents have limited resources and time, so they encourage/tell the kid to make choices. It is not a black and white issue.  Things rarely are.

Then parents need to tell coaches to stick it up their ass.  There is more to life than middle school football.

[HudsonHawk]

I played a lot of basketball. It never helped me hit a curve but I agree with the point.

Basketball helped me with footwork and quickness, both hands and feet.  It's pretty fast paced too, so it helps with reaction time, timing and just general sports coordination, not to mention the conditioning required.  I think basketball is tremendous as general athletic skills training.

I was also on the swim team in high school.  You talk about endurance training and working every muscle in your body...

[Mr. Happy]

I played a lot of basketball. It never helped me hit a curve but I agree with the point.

It didn't help me with hitting the curve ball either. However, for conditioning, it was great.

[chuck]

I was also on the swim team in high school.

I'm struggling to picture this. 'Get in there and give 'em the ole Cannonball, Hudsy!'

[HudsonHawk]

I'm struggling to picture this. 'Get in there and give 'em the ole Cannonball, Hudsy!'

Your snide remarks aside, I was actually a pretty good athlete back in the day.

[mikefast]

Mike,

Have you guys done any studies or analysis on pitcher durability in order to better understand what types of pitchers may be at increased risk for major arm injuries (e.g. Left handed college pitchers that throw a split finger and threw over 100 pitches in greater than 50% of their college starts have a 50% greater chance of having tommy john surgery in seven years -- made up example obviously)?  And, if so, what type of weighting would you ascribe to such an analysis in making draft or free agent acquisitions? 

It sounds like a ton of data-mining and not comprehensively instructive but could prove to be one of the myriad of factors in rating out draft options/signings when, for example, two pitchers have similar ceilings and floors, but one's pitching array and/or usage history suggests he might present a higher risk of injury.

Thanks for your contribution to the site and being a great ambassador for the front office.

Yes, this is something we currently evaluate and use as an important input into our draft process and in other player acquisitions, but it's also something we are continuing to study.  There is a lot left to learn.  One of the things we do is to figure out what weighting is appropriate.

I would also say that there is a lot of misinformation and popular themes in the press that don't really have a lot of factual backing.

[NeilT]

I would also say that there is a lot of misinformation and popular themes in the press that don't really have a lot of factual backing.

I'm certain that only occurs in baseball.  That's why I trust Fox News for my news and ESPN for my sports.

[Ron Brand]

I'm certain that only occurs in baseball.  That's why I trust Fox News for my news and ESPN for my sports.

I question your dedication. You have not once asked Mike Fast about Benghazi.

[Bench]

I question your dedication. You have not once asked Mike Fast about Benghazi.

He obviously can't answer that!

[morningwood75]

Mike, where does the organization stand on batters who strike out a lot even if they bring a couple of other tools to the table? Have y'all put a priority on contact in the draft or are strikeouts not seen as a huge deal? Are players just evaluated on a case-by-case basis? I remember hearing rumors that y'all preferred Moran to Bryant due to the K issue.

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike-  On a scale of 1 to 10 how transferable are concepts from sport to sport in terms of analytics, scouting, player development, etc?  To the extent that they are transferable (some may be, some may not be) could you describe why?  Do the Astros or other organizations within MLB work with other professional sports organizations to refine processes or analytics?

[mikefast]

Mike, where does the organization stand on batters who strike out a lot even if they bring a couple of other tools to the table? Have y'all put a priority on contact in the draft or are strikeouts not seen as a huge deal? Are players just evaluated on a case-by-case basis? I remember hearing rumors that y'all preferred Moran to Bryant due to the K issue.

You might not think so from our major-league team, but we actual put a fairly high priority on making contact.  Having said that, runs scored and runs prevented all count the same on the scoreboard no matter how they get put up there, so we can tolerate flaws in players who help the team win in other ways. If you want to see what type of player we prefer, look at our draft classes.

[mikefast]

Mike-  On a scale of 1 to 10 how transferable are concepts from sport to sport in terms of analytics, scouting, player development, etc?  To the extent that they are transferable (some may be, some may not be) could you describe why?  Do the Astros or other organizations within MLB work with other professional sports organizations to refine processes or analytics?

I would say that analytics generally doesn't transfer much from other sports to baseball except for a few technological solutions being adapted from soccer or golf to baseball.  The key to good analytics is really understanding the sport in question, and there aren't many sports that function like baseball (no clock, defense with the ball, etc.)  I've learned some things about baseball aerodynamics from cricket, and so forth, so there's an occasional nugget to be gleaned from another sport, but it's not common.

I'm not aware of scouting concepts coming from other sports.  Some player development things do translate, particularly on the strength and conditioning front, injuries, rehab, etc., as well as mental and motivational concepts.

There's less cooperation among organizations than you might imagine.  I've had some conversations with folks who work in another sport.  Some of it has been helpful.  But it's not frequent and certainly not any structure that supports that kind of thing.  Organizations (sensibly) tend to be secretive.

[Mr. Happy]

Mike:

Congratulations on the beginning of another great draft. I love the Aiken pick and actually, like many here, predicted that. Now that the first two rounds have been completed, can you tell us when the Aiken decision was finally made? Can you tell us the names of the players who were on the short list of six names for the 1/1 pick?

I'll hang up and listen. Thanks!

[drew corleone]

Mike: Do you read Fangraphs? I read a piece yesterday (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-happens-in-the-draft-room/) about the overall draft day lead-up and process, and I'd love to hear yours or anyone else's take on how closely this aligns with what the Astros do. Obviously the specifics are not going to be divulged, but could you speak to general process and such?

[mikefast]

Can you tell us the names of the players who were on the short list of six names for the 1/1 pick?

No, sorry.

[mikefast]

Mike: Do you read Fangraphs? I read a piece yesterday (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-happens-in-the-draft-room/) about the overall draft day lead-up and process, and I'd love to hear yours or anyone else's take on how closely this aligns with what the Astros do. Obviously the specifics are not going to be divulged, but could you speak to general process and such?

Our process is quite similar to the one described in the article, with a couple exceptions. One is that we have the area scouts in the room through the whole process. Two is that it's not just the crosscheckers' judgments that set our positional boards.

In addition, there's almost nothing we do on paper. He mentioned an area scout showing up with a folder of info to enter at the last minute, which shouldn't happen in our system.

I didn't see much in the article about signability, but a key responsibility of an area scout is knowing the signability of each of his guys.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Mike, (mostly) serious question: how'd you draw the short straw to be the guy who interacts with the fanbase like this?

[drew corleone]

Appreciate it, Mike!

[mikefast]

Mike, (mostly) serious question: how'd you draw the short straw to be the guy who interacts with the fanbase like this?

I've always been a message board kind of guy. Jeff encouraged me to continue after I joined the Astros.

[astrosfan76]

How is makeup analyzed and quantified by the team? I get how a player can have bad makeup, but what makes Aiken's special and how much of a difference-maker can it be in the draft room? Also, echoing others' sentiments, it's really cool of you to answer our questions. Thanks.

[mikefast]

How is makeup analyzed and quantified by the team? I get how a player can have bad makeup, but what makes Aiken's special and how much of a difference-maker can it be in the draft room? Also, echoing others' sentiments, it's really cool of you to answer our questions. Thanks.

The Major League Scouting Bureau has a set of questions that they ask every draft prospect, and we also have our own set of questions.  But primarily we rely on the insight of the area scout, who in most cases has been following the player for several years and has watched them develop and interact with coaches and teammates.

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike-  in thinking about the concept of the ASG "break", I was beginning to wonder what type of cycle that you and other analysts like you, are working under.  Tax guys get busy in March/April and then again in the fall.  Accountants near quarter close, etc.  Clearly you must be fairly busy around the draft, the winter meetings (FA and Rule 5), and July for trade deadlines.  Are there other times?  Are there some peak times that are more stressful than others?

[mikefast]

Mike-  in thinking about the concept of the ASG "break", I was beginning to wonder what type of cycle that you and other analysts like you, are working under.  Tax guys get busy in March/April and then again in the fall.  Accountants near quarter close, etc.  Clearly you must be fairly busy around the draft, the winter meetings (FA and Rule 5), and July for trade deadlines.  Are there other times?  Are there some peak times that are more stressful than others?

You named the three busiest times.  Spring training can also sometimes be a busy time as we are adding new reports/info that various coaches want in time for the new season, but we try to get a head start on that during the winter as much as we can.

[Uncle Charlie]

Two quick things Mike:

1. I know you won't comment on here, and I suspect you might have read the Aiken thread, but wanted to let you know that at least this fan knows that you are doing the best you guys can possibly do in the situation as it evolved.  None of us, not the fans, the reporters, or even the folks who seem to have ties to the "inside" know all of the info you guys do.  Keep your heads up and make 1-2 in 2015 a good pick...along with the normal 2015 pick.

2. With the day off today, I always wondered what the team does in a situation like today with a day off in the middle of a road trip.  It looks like we have 4 of them this year, with this being the first.  Is it often the day that the team travels, or do they do a normal midnight flight followed by a true day off in the new city or does the team take the off day to travel leisurely?  Is a day off truly a day off - no ball park, or is there some "work" that makes its way in such as BP, etc?

[Mr. Happy]

Mike:

Uncle Charlie makes an excellent point. We all want you all to know that we're behind you, come what may. You're in a nest of rabid Astros fans!

[mikefast]

With the day off today, I always wondered what the team does in a situation like today with a day off in the middle of a road trip.  It looks like we have 4 of them this year, with this being the first.  Is it often the day that the team travels, or do they do a normal midnight flight followed by a true day off in the new city or does the team take the off day to travel leisurely?  Is a day off truly a day off - no ball park, or is there some "work" that makes its way in such as BP, etc?

Thanks, guys.

The team traveled from Chicago to San Francisco on Sunday.  Then it's up to the manager whether they have the off day off or whether they have some practice time at the park.  I think generally managers try to give players a day like that off since they are so rare throughout the season, but there may be times that the team or specific players may need to work on certain things, and a day off gives more opportunity for that than a day with typical routine that's filled with batting practice, media time, ball game, etc.

[Uncle Charlie]

Thanks Mike.

With the competitive balance draft for 2015 set today, I thought for sure the Astros would have been in the pool based on low revenue.  Given attendance and tv issues, I had assumed the team was bottom ten, but apparently not.  Can you give any insight as to how MLB comes up with that ranking?  I noticed that they use the term "revenue pools" - not quite sure what that means.  Thanks.

[mikefast]

Thanks Mike.

With the competitive balance draft for 2015 set today, I thought for sure the Astros would have been in the pool based on low revenue.  Given attendance and tv issues, I had assumed the team was bottom ten, but apparently not.  Can you give any insight as to how MLB comes up with that ranking?  I noticed that they use the term "revenue pools" - not quite sure what that means.  Thanks.

According to the basic agreement, the biggest 15 markets are disqualified from participating in the competitive balance lottery (with an exception for Oakland until they get a new stadium).  That means that Houston will never be eligible for the lottery under the current agreement, no matter what our revenue is.

The remaining 15 teams (plus Oakland makes 16) are eligible for the lottery.  From those 16, the ten teams with the lowest revenue and the ten teams with the smallest markets are entered in the first round of the lottery.  Of course there is some overlap between those two groups of 10.  Then for the second round of the lottery, all eligible teams that didn't get one of the six picks in Round A of the lottery are entered in Round B for six more picks.  Chances of winning a pick in either lottery are inverse to winning percentage.

[Uncle Charlie]

According to the basic agreement, the biggest 15 markets are disqualified from participating in the competitive balance lottery (with an exception for Oakland until they get a new stadium).  That means that Houston will never be eligible for the lottery under the current agreement, no matter what our revenue is.

In all of the write-ups I've ever read about the CBL, I've never heard this - only that its the 10 lowest rev & 10 smallest markets; thanks for clearing it up.

[Duman]

I know you may not be able to comment on this Mike but I loved the exchange on Twitter between you and Jose de Jesus Ortiz last night.  We done sir!

[Uncle Charlie]

I know you may not be able to comment on this Mike but I loved the exchange on Twitter between you and Jose de Jesus Ortiz last night.  We done sir!

Perfect conversation.

[NeilT]

That's really a nice compliment from Goldstein.  I think though that the scouting staff could do better if they hired someone with x-ray vision.

[Reuben]

That's really a nice compliment from Goldstein.  I think though that the scouting staff could do better if they hired someone with x-ray vision.

Clearly the Astros are the only team that doesn't employ any time-travelers. That explains the signings of Crain and Albers. All the time-travel-supported FOs knew those guys were gonna miss months with injuries. Because no well-run, smart organization has ever blown a few million dollars on injured players.

[NeilT]

Clearly the Astros are the only team that doesn't employ any time-travelers. That explains the signings of Crain and Albers. All the time-travel-supported FOs knew those guys were gonna miss months with injuries. Because no well-run, smart organization has ever blown a few million dollars on injured players.

As I recall there's a whole chapter on time-travelling analysts in Moneyball.

[Duman]

Of course JdJO left off the rest of his list of players (posted on 6/28) who should have been up already.

If #Astros wanted to win now & Jim Crane asked Bo & coaches instead of GM, Domingo Santana would be in RF, Springer in LF, Folty in pen.

[HudsonHawk]

It boggles my mind that anyone thinks JJDO has any credibility whatsoever or otherwise gives a rat's ass what he thinks.

[MusicMan]

It boggles my mind that anyone thinks JJDO has any credibility whatsoever or otherwise gives a rat's ass what he thinks.

Some people find Nancy Grace attractive.  There's no accounting for taste.

[HudsonHawk]

Some people find Nancy Grace attractive.  There's no accounting for taste.

I never said I find her attractive.  I said I want to do her.  Angrily.

[Jacksonian]

I never said I find her attractive.  I said I want to do her.  Angrily.

Are you feeling ok?

[BizidyDizidy]

You know, I may be in the minority here, but I find Nancy Grace inexplicably attractive

[HudsonHawk]

I think you cut me off too soon. I explained what I meant by that.

[BizidyDizidy]

I think you cut me off too soon. I explained what I meant by that.

Okay, maybe a little more context helps a bit:

You know, I may be in the minority here, but I find Nancy Grace inexplicably attractive, in a "I want to have very angry sex with you" kind of way.

Nonetheless, you have a strange way of never saying you find someone attractive.

[HudsonHawk]

Okay, maybe a little more context helps a bit:

Nonetheless, you have a strange way of never saying you find someone attractive.

It's not my fault you're a dumbass.

[moriartp]

I know you may not be able to comment on this Mike but I loved the exchange on Twitter between you and Jose de Jesus Ortiz last night.  We done sir!

Thank you so much for posting that. I love JDJO beatdowns.

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike-  Having concluded the upper levels of minor league baseball for this year, who would be your All-Stars for the year in the minor league system?  Who would be your "sleepers" headed into fall/winter league?

[mikefast]

Mike-  Having concluded the upper levels of minor league baseball for this year, who would be your All-Stars for the year in the minor league system?  Who would be your "sleepers" headed into fall/winter league?

I'll defer on the All-Stars, but Brett Phillips is someone who will probably get a little attention on top prospects and will deserve every bit of it and more.  Joan Mauricio is another guy who is looking really good, though he is farther away.  And Tyler Brunnemann is a good sleeper.

[Reuben]

Curious to hear your thoughts on Joe Musgrove, Mike.

[Fynn]

Mike, interesting article on Pitch f/x and its impact on offense.  Care to add your spin on how this has affected baseball since its introduction?

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/09/baseball-is-boring-and-this-camera/379443/

[mikefast]

Curious to hear your thoughts on Joe Musgrove, Mike.

He's had a really good season.  Added some fastball velo, improved his secondary pitches, and stayed healthy.

[mikefast]

Mike, interesting article on Pitch f/x and its impact on offense.  Care to add your spin on how this has affected baseball since its introduction?

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/09/baseball-is-boring-and-this-camera/379443/

That article is more or less correct.  It's drawing heavily on some previous work by Jon Roegele and Brian Mills on that topic, and both of them are sharp guys.  The section about TV ratings and some of the other editorializing I don't particularly agree with, but the thoughts on the changing strike zone are pretty much on point.

[NeilT]

That article is more or less correct.  It's drawing heavily on some previous work by Jon Roegele and Brian Mills on that topic, and both of them are sharp guys.  The section about TV ratings and some of the other editorializing I don't particularly agree with, but the thoughts on the changing strike zone are pretty much on point.

There was a fascinating article linked earlier that talked about working with McHugh to take advantage of batters adaptation to the lower strike zone.  It suggested that McHugh went the opposite direction and implied that was a conscious decision.  Was I reading that right?

[mikefast]

There was a fascinating article linked earlier that talked about working with McHugh to take advantage of batters adaptation to the lower strike zone.  It suggested that McHugh went the opposite direction and implied that was a conscious decision.  Was I reading that right?

McHugh is pitching differently in some ways than he did in past years, and some of that is based on things we observed.  I think Brent Strom has spoken to some of the changes publicly, but I'm not going to go into any more detail on that.

[NeilT]

McHugh is pitching differently in some ways than he did in past years, and some of that is based on things we observed.  I think Brent Strom has spoken to some of the changes publicly, but I'm not going to go into any more detail on that.

That's great, thanks.

[Jose Cruz III]

Mike, it's easy to see that the Astros improved this year. With there being no real impact bats on the market this year, would the FO consider wading out into the pitching market this year to sign a staff ace (Scherzer, Lester) like they tried to do last year with Tanaka?

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike - with the interview and hiring process completed at this point, could you provide a little more detail about what a typical interview day was like for Hinch and the others.  Who did they meet, who did they interview with and for how long?  I'm assuming you cannot get into the types of questions asked or selection process, but some insight into the day of an interviewer might be fun to hear about.

Also, did you work it into Hinch's contract to read this board at least once a week? (just kidding of course)

[NeilT]

Mike - with the interview and hiring process completed at this point, could you provide a little more detail about what a typical interview day was like for Hinch and the others.  Who did they meet, who did they interview with and for how long?  I'm assuming you cannot get into the types of questions asked or selection process, but some insight into the day of an interviewer might be fun to hear about.

Also, did you work it into Hinch's contract to read this board at least once a week? (just kidding of course)

I'd have thought that the contract came with a warning label to the effect that reading any fansite could negatively affect the reader's intelligence and good humor.

[Limey]

I'd have thought that the contract came with a warning label to the effect that reading any fansite could negatively affect the reader's intelligence and good humor.

"NSFBC"

[MusicMan]

"NSFBC"

I always hoped that would catch on.

[NeilT]

Mike, I hope you're still talking to us after the season end.  I'd say the behavior was abnormal and apologize, but I'd be a'lyin' and wasting my breath.  C'est la internet.  If you are around, I'm curious, does the team have priorities--not specific players, but more general priorities--for off-season acquisitions? Can you share?

[das]

Mike, I hope you're still talking to us after the season end.  I'd say the behavior was abnormal and apologize, but I'd be a'lyin' and wasting my breath.  C'est la internet.  If you are around, I'm curious, does the team have priorities--not specific players, but more general priorities--for off-season acquisitions? Can you share?

I'm glad you stopped short of apologizing. The fact that OWA has "this is a place where we can come together and fight like hell" baked into its DNA is one of the reasons I have kept coming back all these years. Footer understood this, I'm guessing Fast does as well.

[NeilT]

I'm glad you stopped short of apologizing. The fact that OWA has "this is a place where we can come together and fight like hell" baked into its DNA is one of the reasons I have kept coming back all these years. Footer understood this, I'm guessing Fast does as well.

I'll apologize if I damn well feel like it, so there.

[Mr. Happy]

I'll apologize if I damn well feel like it, so there.

Now, now, Counselor. You've been particularly frisky the last few days. It's edgy, and it becomes you. I like it.

[Reuben]

Now, now, Counselor. You've been particularly frisky the last few days. It's degy, and it becomes you. I like it.

Verrrrry interesting. NTTAWWT

[NeilT]

Now, now, Counselor. You've been particularly frisky the last few days. It's degy, and it becomes you. I like it.

I just thought DAS was missing the Bad Old Days, and that I was supposed to respond argumentatively.

[mikefast]

Mike, I hope you're still talking to us after the season end.  I'd say the behavior was abnormal and apologize, but I'd be a'lyin' and wasting my breath.  C'est la internet.  If you are around, I'm curious, does the team have priorities--not specific players, but more general priorities--for off-season acquisitions? Can you share?

It's been a busy couple weeks.  Yes, we have priorities and a plan.  No, I can't share beyond what Jeff has discussed about that publicly already.

[mikefast]

Mike, it's easy to see that the Astros improved this year. With there being no real impact bats on the market this year, would the FO consider wading out into the pitching market this year to sign a staff ace (Scherzer, Lester) like they tried to do last year with Tanaka?

Can't really talk about specific players we are targeting.

[mikefast]

Mike - with the interview and hiring process completed at this point, could you provide a little more detail about what a typical interview day was like for Hinch and the others.  Who did they meet, who did they interview with and for how long?  I'm assuming you cannot get into the types of questions asked or selection process, but some insight into the day of an interviewer might be fun to hear about.

Also, did you work it into Hinch's contract to read this board at least once a week? (just kidding of course)

It's basically a full day of talking to a variety of people across the organization.  A combination of the front office people that the manager would interact with on a regular basis in the job and senior baseball people who can offer insight from that perspective.  It's both for us to get to know them and understand how they work and what's important to them and for them to get to know us and how we operate and how they would fit into and add to that.

[das]

I just thought DAS was missing the Bad Old Days, and that I was supposed to respond argumentatively.

I was and I appreciate the sentiment, asshole.

[NeilT]

I was and I appreciate the sentiment, asshole.

nominated.

[Jose Cruz III]

nominated.

He didn't post it in 2013.

[VirtualBob]

nominated.

terminated.

[Nate Colbert]

Was a scout ever hired for Japan? I know Luhnow and Goldstein went there back in May to do so but as far as I know no announcement of a hiring was ever made.

[Reuben]

Mike, I'm sure you can't get too specific about what was discussed regarding the Rule 5-related roster decisions (and for those interested, the Bus Ride thread is here), but perhaps you could at least tell us whether the player(s) being discussed in the potential trade that didn't happen yesterday were already on the 40-man, or not? Was there some element of gamesmanship or strategy involved in issuing the earlier press release that only listed VV and Torreyes?

I'm also curious how it works (or will work) when a player from your system gets selected in the Rule 5. For instance, say a team takes DeShields, but it's clearly a long-shot that he stays with them all season. Do your player-development people meet with him before he leaves, to talk about things they want him to work on? Do you actually exchange information with the other club's player-dev people so that everyone is doing what's best for the player, and not screwing him up with mixed messages? It must be really odd for the player, not knowing if the guys he's in the clubhouse with in ST are permanent co-workers and bosses, or once-and-future enemies.

[mikefast]

Was a scout ever hired for Japan? I know Luhnow and Goldstein went there back in May to do so but as far as I know no announcement of a hiring was ever made.

Things are proceeding from that visit, but I'm not sure what's been made public.

[mikefast]

Mike, I'm sure you can't get too specific about what was discussed regarding the Rule 5-related roster decisions (and for those interested, the Bus Ride thread is here), but perhaps you could at least tell us whether the player(s) being discussed in the potential trade that didn't happen yesterday were already on the 40-man, or not? Was there some element of gamesmanship or strategy involved in issuing the earlier press release that only listed VV and Torreyes?

I'm also curious how it works (or will work) when a player from your system gets selected in the Rule 5. For instance, say a team takes DeShields, but it's clearly a long-shot that he stays with them all season. Do your player-development people meet with him before he leaves, to talk about things they want him to work on? Do you actually exchange information with the other club's player-dev people so that everyone is doing what's best for the player, and not screwing him up with mixed messages? It must be really odd for the player, not knowing if the guys he's in the clubhouse with in ST are permanent co-workers and bosses, or once-and-future enemies.

No, I can't talk about what happened Thursday beyond what Jeff already shared.

When a player is taken in the Rule 5, everyone pretty much assumes they will be with their new team.  You can't really treat it otherwise, even though a lot of times the player will be returned during spring training.

For example, when we selected Nate Freiman, that was it for the Padres' input into his development.  We treated him like we expected he was going to be our player.  With some exceptions, no player is on your team forever, but you do your best for them while you have the chance.  When Oakland claimed Freiman on waivers, that was it was for us, and he was Oakland's responsibility.

[Uncle Charlie]

Following up on the Rule 5 draft...do most teams have a draft board prior to the 40-man finalization date which is then just tweaked or is the board formed after it is set?  Does much thought goes into competitor analysis in deciding who the Astros set on the 40-man or is that largely an internal facing decision?

[mikefast]

Following up on the Rule 5 draft...do most teams have a draft board prior to the 40-man finalization date which is then just tweaked or is the board formed after it is set?  Does much thought goes into competitor analysis in deciding who the Astros set on the 40-man or is that largely an internal facing decision?

I would expect the pro scouting department to have an idea of who their top Rule 5 eligible targets are in every other organization, but there's not much point to putting a formal list together until the rosters are set.

When you put the 40-man protect list together, it's mostly based on all the internal evaluations of the players. But of course you use all the information you can get from any source.

[Duman]

Mike - as soon as the trade goes down, many here start putting lineups together.  I got to wondering how much of the analytic departments work is done pre trade verses post trade? 

[mikefast]

Mike - as soon as the trade goes down, many here start putting lineups together.  I got to wondering how much of the analytic departments work is done pre trade verses post trade? 

The bulk of the work on figuring out how a player will fit into the team is obviously done ahead of the trade.  A.J. is the one who sets the lineup.

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike - do teams use spring training stats for anything other than making a specific team to start the year (of course in the context of prior regular season performances)?  If used outside of that, how are they used?

[mikefast]

Mike - do teams use spring training stats for anything other than making a specific team to start the year (of course in the context of prior regular season performances)?  If used outside of that, how are they used?

Sorry, I don't really have a good answer that I can give you.  Spring training info gets used in a variety of ways, but only a small part of that info is the traditional stat line.

[NeilT]

Mike, how much Is the front office involved in Spring Training, as training?  Do you work with the manager and coaches to come up with specific player programs? Team programs? Are players told that the team wants to see certain stuff developed during the spring?  Is it all left to the manager and coaches?  Or do players just come out and do whatever baseball stuff they choose, with some obligatory calisthenics thrown in?

[mikefast]

Mike, how much Is the front office involved in Spring Training, as training?  Do you work with the manager and coaches to come up with specific player programs? Team programs? Are players told that the team wants to see certain stuff developed during the spring?  Is it all left to the manager and coaches?  Or do players just come out and do whatever baseball stuff they choose, with some obligatory calisthenics thrown in?

There are definitely specific programs for each player as well as team programs.  For some of the veterans, of course, there might not be much to change, as compared to maybe some of the younger guys.  The manager and the coaching staff are the ones who are driving this, as well as a coordinated effort throughout our whole player development organization.  But of course the front office helps, and certainly the players are working at this themselves and own their own development.  It really is a team/organizational effort.  From what I see, that's a strength of our organization.

[JimR]

no question, Mr. F. congrats on the way this has started.

[Astrofan59]

I have seen a lot of comments on this, but cannot find a definitive answer - If the Astros do not sign their pick at number 2, do they lose that pick, or do they get another chance next year?  Thanks

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

I have seen a lot of comments on this, but cannot find a definitive answer - If the Astros do not sign their pick at number 2, do they lose that pick, or do they get another chance next year?  Thanks

The Aiken compensation pick is use it or lose it this year.  If we don't sign whoever we pick at #5, that pick would be compensated.

[roadrunner]

The Aiken compensation pick is use it or lose it this year.  If we don't sign whoever we pick at #5, that pick would be compensated.

Are you sure?  I thought we had 1 more potential signing bust before it becomes a use it or lose it.

[Astrofan59]

GreatBagwellsBeard/roadrunner - Hence the reason I asked Mr Fast

[Nate Colbert]

Per FG's Kiley McDaniel today:

Contrary to some buzz I’ve heard from high-ranking scouts in the last few weeks, this pick is protected and the Astros would get the #2 pick next year (in what looks like a much, much better draft) if they didn’t sign this player this year.

[Astrofan59]

Per FG's Kiley McDaniel today:

Keith Law said the same thing a few weeks ago, but many others have said just the opposite.  I can find nothing on google to confirm either way.

[Nate Colbert]

If there was any doubt at this point:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  2 hours ago
Yes, new CBA protects picks for two years. @levi_portillo: Is the @Astros pick at #2 protected if they don't sign player?

[mikefast]

McDaniel, Law, and Callis are correct.  Rule 4(c)(2)(C).

[Astrofan59]

McDaniel, Law, and Callis are correct.  Rule 4(c)(2)(C).

thanks for the response

[astrosfan76]

Mike,

Thanks for taking time, as always. Does the organization have a policy/guidelines when it comes to young pitchers and increases in innings pitched? The question stems from McCullers' situation, but if you cannot speak directly about an individual player, what factors are considered when deciding if/when is the appropriate time to shut them down?

[Uncle Charlie]

No question - just wanted to say that day 1 of the draft was quite impressive.  Well done - just have to get them signed.

[Duman]

No question - just wanted to say that day 1 of the draft was quite impressive.  Well done - just have to get them signed.

+1 and some some good players to Greeneville

[Astrofan59]

Is there a limit on the amount of bonus that a non-drafted free agent can be paid without consequences?  I have heard that anything over $100,000 goes towards the draft pool - is this correct?

[Nate Colbert]

Is there a limit on the amount of bonus that a non-drafted free agent can be paid without consequences?  I have heard that anything over $100,000 goes towards the draft pool - is this correct?

Yep. NDFAs treated the same in this regard just like any player drafted in the 11th round and later. Excess over $100K counts towards pool.

[Astrofan59]

Yep. NDFAs treated the same in this regard just like any player drafted in the 11th round and later. Excess over $100K counts towards pool.

Thanks. Do you happen to have a link?

[Nate Colbert]

Thanks. Do you happen to have a link?

Here.

Scroll down to "First-Year Player Draft (MLB Rule 4 Draft) Signing Bonus Pool":

...if a club pays a signing bonus in excess of $100,000 to a player selected in the 11th round or later or to a player eligible for selection who was not drafted, the amount of that bonus in excess of $100,000 is deducted from the club’s SBP.

[NeilT]

Mike, I'm curious, did you guys consciously design a high strike out, low OBP, high dinger offense?

[Astrofan59]

Here.

Scroll down to "First-Year Player Draft (MLB Rule 4 Draft) Signing Bonus Pool":

Much appreciated

[Astrofan59]

I have been reading a little about WAR, which seems like a fantastic concept.  But can anyone tell me how accurate it is when comparing position players against pitchers?

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike - has the league issued any guidance on how time  from PED suspensions will be handled for Rule 5 players?  If yes, what was it?

[mikefast]

Mike, I'm curious, did you guys consciously design a high strike out, low OBP, high dinger offense?

I think Jeff has addressed that, in that we were looking for an offense that could score more runs than we have in the past.  Low OBP was certainly not a goal, and hopefully won't be a limitation of our offense.  We have a .311 OBP, which is just below the league OBP of .315, and that's with Jed Lowrie missing most of the year so far.  We were aware we building around a number of guys who have struck out a lot, but that wasn't a goal.

[mikefast]

Mike - has the league issued any guidance on how time  from PED suspensions will be handled for Rule 5 players?  If yes, what was it?

Rule 5 players are required to spend 90 days on the active 25-man roster during the season, or else they continue to remain under Rule 5 restriction (can't be optioned to the minors without first being passed through waivers and offered back to their original team) in the subsequent season.

[Navin R Johnson]

Does the shifting you guys do change at all what you look for out of a 3rd baseman in field?

[Uncle Charlie]

Mike - kudos for some great work by the front office to build this team for more than just a playoff birth this year.  I and other are really looking forward to the next 3 months (yes, 3).

When players are made available, does anyone other than the GM make that information known?  Is it only through phone calls or is it sometimes by text or even a "posting system" through MLB (similar to the fantasy baseball mechanism of a player being "On the Block")?  I doubt the later exists but am interested.

Again - great job in July...so many of us excited about the future.

[NeilT]

Similar question, is the front office watching the same rumors that everybody else is watching? 

[MusicMan]

When players are made available, does anyone other than the GM make that information known?  Is it only through phone calls or is it sometimes by text or even a "posting system" through MLB (similar to the fantasy baseball mechanism of a player being "On the Block")?  I doubt the later exists but am interested.

I'm not Mike but I think the Cards have their own methods of "tracking" who's available.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JimR]

Does the shifting you guys do change at all what you look for out of a 3rd baseman in field?

Spiderman would be useful.

[mikefast]

Mike - kudos for some great work by the front office to build this team for more than just a playoff birth this year.  I and other are really looking forward to the next 3 months (yes, 3).

When players are made available, does anyone other than the GM make that information known?  Is it only through phone calls or is it sometimes by text or even a "posting system" through MLB (similar to the fantasy baseball mechanism of a player being "On the Block")?  I doubt the later exists but am interested.

Again - great job in July...so many of us excited about the future.

Typically it's the GMs and assistant GMs who are talking to each other about who is available.  Texts, phone calls, emails.

[mikefast]

Similar question, is the front office watching the same rumors that everybody else is watching?

Yes, of course, in addition to paying attention to what people in our organization are hearing from around the industry.

You have to be aware that at least half of the rumors are misinformation, and they are being put out there by someone with an agenda, even if they are true, but there is still some value from following the rumors.

[NeilT]

Misinformation!? Tell me it ain't so!

If Hinch is calling pitches, what kind of information does he go in with?  Who prepares Hinch? 

[mikefast]

If Hinch is calling pitches, what kind of information does he go in with?  Who prepares Hinch?

Tom Koch-Weser and his team are responsible for advance scouting of upcoming opponents.  They meet with Hinch and the coaching staff and the players before each series to help prepare them for whomever we are facing.  They do a great job.

[jbm]

Hey, since you are actually still reading this thread, bigtime congrats and more importantly, thank you to you and all your co-workers.  Keep it up.

[Jacksonian]

Ok Mike.  Make this amazing team even better.  No pressure.

[JimR]

Thank you, Mike, for a great year. Now go get Chapman.

[WVastro]

Thanks Mike and crew. That was my most enjoyable (and sometimesthe most frustrating!) season as an Astros fan in 40 years. That team was like my first shitty girlfriend. Loved her to death but damn..... Well played! Can't wait for all the news over the next six months!

[Reuben]

Thanks and congrats, Mike, to you and the rest of the FO. 2015 was a great ride. Can't wait for 2016.

[Mr. Happy]

Thank you, Mike, for a great year. Now go get Chapman.

Amen, Coach!

[moriartp]

Congratulations on the promotion, Mike.

[Ron Brand]

Congratulations!

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Good work Mike, a promotion well deserved!

[JimR]

Just read about your promotion. Wow, congrats! I hope you will still have time to read and to post here.

[Jacksonian]

Yes, congratulations Mike.

[tbone421998]

Congrats Mike, well deserved.

[Reuben]

Just read about your promotion. Wow, congrats! I hope you will still have time to read and to post here.

Ditto.

[Fredia]

wow nothing can prepare you for owa fantasies    does any of them include tamales and shotguns

[Nate Colbert]

Per McTaggart:

"Castro, 29, has blossomed into one of the top defensive catchers in the game for the way he handles pitchers and his pitch framing, and he has improved his blocking and throwing. The strides he's made are partially the result of a different mindset about how he catches, and he credits a meeting with Astros baseball development analyst Mike Fast two years ago with helping him approach catching in different ways."

Way to go, Mike!

[No Worries]

Mike, what under the radar minor leaguers should we be tracking this year?

Personally, I've been tracking Jamie Ritchie, since he is a catcher that hits triples and steals bases.

[jbm]

No questions anymore, but if you still read this board, congrats to you and everyone behind the scenes.  Thanks for all the hard and productive work.

[jwhudson]

No questions anymore, but if you still read this board, congrats to you and everyone behind the scenes.  Thanks for all the hard and productive work.

+1

[tbone421998]

+1

+2

[mikefast]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

[NeilT]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

What!?!  We are!?!  SOMEBODY SHOULD HAVE TOLD US!!!

Congratulations to you and the organization!

[Texifornia]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

Friends that I grew up with, members of three generations of my family, including some younger than I, and so many Astros beginning with Jim Umbricht didn't live to see it; but, I did. Thanks to you and everybody in the Astros organization we all did.

Make sure you thank everybody for us!

[JimR]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

Congratulations on a superb job of building this roster. I am thrilled for us fans, but I am equally pleased jim Crane, Jeff Luhnow, you, and the rest of the baseball staff were rewarded with this championship.

[Mr. Happy]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

Splendid job and congratulations to ownership and the front office for bringing a championship to Houston! Over the past five years, you all were second guessed repeatedly by so-called baseball experts about your innovative methods. I'm sure that it was difficult to stay the course sometimes. I'm so glad that you all stuck with your plan.

[BudGirl]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

Do it again!!  Do it again!!!

Best times of our baseball lives!  You all are amazingly smart!!!

[DVauthrin]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

Congrats to you and the rest of the Astros front office on bringing the first World Series championship to Houston and the Astros organization.  The team you guys put together was a joy to watch.

[Reuben]

Thanks!

We are World Series Champions, y'all!

My only other question is Did you go to Disney World?

[Navin R Johnson]

He gone. Per McTaggert

[das]

He gone. Per McTaggert

Man, these are a lot of personnel changes for a WS champion team that is on pace to win over 100 games again.

[JimR]

Mike Fast is gone? Wasn’t he a wunderkind?

[subnuclear]

The Athletic has some info for the interested.

[Navin R Johnson]

Don’t have a subscription, where is he going and why?

[Nate Colbert]

Don’t have a subscription, where is he going and why?

He refused to answer why he was leaving but did note that he was looking for another job in baseball. It's all rather curious. Perhaps it was a reaction to the Taubman promotion or maybe there's something else going on.

Throwing this out there, did anybody follow his twitter account on a regular basis over the last couple of months? He was not on my follow list but think I noticed something about his avatar when I came across his account somewhat randomly a month or so ago.

Also,  does anyone know Footer well enough to approach her privately as to what she knows?

[JimR]

He refused to answer why he was leaving but did note that he was looking for another job in baseball. It's all rather curious. Perhaps it was a reaction to the Taubman promotion or maybe there's something else going on.

Throwing this out there, did anybody follow his twitter account on a regular basis over the last couple of months? He was not on my follow list but think I noticed something about his avatar when I came across his account somewhat randomly a month or so ago.

Also,  does anyone know Footer well enough to approach her privately as to what she knows?

Someone on here knows Footer well.