Author Topic: 2011 Draft (Read 113909 times)

OregonStrosFan · « **on:** February 27, 2011, 05:55:43 pm »

It is WAY too early to try to start projecting who the Astros may be taking with the 11th overall pick in the 2011 draft... but... its never too early to start thinking about it... (Link via MLBTR)

Examiner.com's Stephen Goff [via Twitter] hears that the Astros are looking at UConn RHP Matt Barnes, Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer, Hawaii 2B Kolten Wong, and Indiana OF Alex Dickerson for their first round pick in this summer's draft, #11 overall.

jbm · « **Reply #1 on:** February 28, 2011, 08:30:57 am »

Are the Kentucky and Indiana refrences to colleges or states? I think Wong just played against Texas, so I assume Hawaii means college.

If these are all college players, seems to buck the recent Wade/Heck trend.

moriartp · « **Reply #2 on:** February 28, 2011, 08:39:36 am »

They keep eyes on all the top players, HS and college. This list is a reflection of that, not really of specific interest in these particular players.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #3 on:** February 28, 2011, 09:07:43 am »

Don't know who Gott's sources are, he mentions on Twitter talking with Heck shortly before posting those names, though I don't think Heck was revealing names. The college crop is really good this year (though HS isn't shabby), so I wouldn't be surprised if they took a college player first (like '08). Of course, plans can change, even on draft day.

Of the guys mentioned, Barnes could be a guy that doesn't even make it to us. He was up to 97 in his first start and, according to a crosschecker, looks like he'll go in the top 10. I wouldn't mind if he made it to #11, though. I don't know much about the position players, but Meyer could be all over the place, depending on his season. He passed on a good bonus out of HS to go to Kentucky. He was already a big guy, but is 6'9" now. Like most really tall pitchers, command has been an issue, though the K's have been there. He's one of the hardest throwers in the draft, but hasn't put together a good season, yet. Scott Boras could also play a factor in his draft status.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #4 on:** March 05, 2011, 02:14:38 pm »

USA Today has its Top 50 eligible prospects posted. LINK (Random Texas players, Northwest players, former 1st round picks, players noted by Goff (with USA today comments), etc., noted below)

#1 - 3B Anthony Rendon, 20 (Rice);
#2 - OF George Springer, 21 (UConn);
#3 - RHP Gerrit Cole, 20 (UCLA - former NYY unsigned 1st round pick);
#4 - RHP Archie Bradley, 18 (Broken Arrow HS, Oklahoma);
#5 - RHP Matt Barnes, 20 (UConn) Comment: Probably helped himself more last summer than any player on this list, putting on a show in the Cape Cod League and for Team USA. Barnes is long and athletic, and throws a lively 93-96 mph fastball. With the secondary pitches to go with it, he's a true swing and miss type starter);
#6 - LHP Matt Purke, 20 (TCU - former TEX unsigned 1st round pick);
#10 - RHP Taylor Jungmann, 21 (UT);
#18 - OF Alex Dickerson, 20 (Indiana) (Comment: Power is the name of Dickerson's game; he draws comparisons to Jim Thome which aren't that far off. The question mark for him: his professional position);
#23 - LHP Tyler Anderson, 21 (Oregon);
#28 - OF Jason Coats, 20 (TCU);
#34 - OF Josh Bell, 18 (Jesuit College Prep, Texas);
#37 - RHP Alex Meyer, 21 (Kentucky) (Comment: If Meyer can put together a big spring, he's easily a top 10 type talent. Consistency and performance have been an issue for him in the past, but given early indications he looks poised to have a big spring. Standing at 6-foot-8, Meyer can reach 100 mph with his fastball and routinely gets into the upper-90s);
#38 - C Andrew Susac, 20 (Oregon State);
#44 - 2B Kolten Wong, 20 (Hawaii) (Comment: He proved in the Cape Cod League that he could swing the wood bat effectively. What position he plays long term remains a question mark); and
#49 - RHP Dylan Davis, 17 (Redmond HS, Washington).

MusicMan · « **Reply #5 on:** March 05, 2011, 02:22:02 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on March 05, 2011, 02:14:38 pm

#10 - RHP Taylor Jungmann, 21 (UT);

If he somehow falls to #11, Wade should knock people over calling in the pick.

moriartp · « **Reply #6 on:** March 05, 2011, 06:14:03 pm »

Quote from: MusicMan on March 05, 2011, 02:22:02 pm

If he somehow falls to #11, Wade should knock people over calling in the pick.

From everything written so far, there's a pretty good chance he'll be there. It's a deep class.

jbm · « **Reply #7 on:** March 05, 2011, 06:52:54 pm »

After watching him yesterday, it's not inconceivable he could be available at that spot. He is certainly impressive, but I doubt he wows scouts.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #8 on:** March 05, 2011, 09:17:56 pm »

Quote from: jbm on March 05, 2011, 06:52:54 pm

After watching him yesterday, it's not inconceivable he could be available at that spot. He is certainly impressive, but I doubt he wows scouts.

BA had a report from an AL scout up Thursday:

Quote

Jungmann's got that thing you can't teach: When he gets in a game and gets zoned in, the bigger the game is, the better he pitches. He always steps up in a big game, finds something extra, hits his spots. He's just a prototypical top-of-the-rotation starter. Maybe a No. 2 in the big leagues—I don't know about a No. 1 guy. Worst-case scenario, a No. 3. He goes out and gets it done—he's unflappable. He's a really good athlete. I'd heard the velocity was up into the mid-90s, but I didn't see that; I saw him sitting at 92-93. The slider's pretty good, and he's got a hard curveball that's plus, the changeup's average to maybe solid-average, 50-55. And he pitches with all four of them, and he pitches to contact. When you've got (Brandon) Loy at short, you don't have to worry too much about stuff going through the middle.

Outside of the Texas connection (which I don't really care about), he's not someone to get overly excited about at #11. But, he wouldn't be a bad pick, either. He's a pretty safe bet to be a valuable starter. He just doesn't have the upside of some of the other guys who'll still be around.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/weekend-preview/2011/2611363.html

jbm · « **Reply #9 on:** March 05, 2011, 09:50:42 pm »

I was sitting behind the scouts for the first few innings. He was 93-95. His curve is not effective at all. His slider and change are so so.

Based on my limited observations, his secondary stuff hasn't developed much in two years, but his fastball is impressive. Commands it relatively well and it has decent movement. Not too many people squared up on it.

With decent secondary offerings, he's middle of rotation. With a plus secondary pitch or two, he's top of the rotation. In other words, I'd disagree about the upside, but I have little sense of the likelihood that he develops good secondary pitches.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #10 on:** March 07, 2011, 09:20:34 am »

Quote from: jbm on March 05, 2011, 09:50:42 pm

I was sitting behind the scouts for the first few innings. He was 93-95. His curve is not effective at all. His slider and change are so so.

Based on my limited observations, his secondary stuff hasn't developed much in two years, but his fastball is impressive. Commands it relatively well and it has decent movement. Not too many people squared up on it.

With decent secondary offerings, he's middle of rotation. With a plus secondary pitch or two, he's top of the rotation. In other words, I'd disagree about the upside, but I have little sense of the likelihood that he develops good secondary pitches.

Thanks for the first-hand account. Wonder if he was having an off-week with his secondary pitches. It's still early in the season, so maybe mid-April he's showing something different from what you saw. Or, maybe the scout saw his secondary pitches at their best.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #11 on:** April 15, 2011, 03:13:25 pm »

Keith Law's musings about the picks 2-5 in the 2011 draft (via MLBTR article):

Mariners will take the 'left over' of Rendon or Cole.
D'Backs covet Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen.
Orioles could take Hultzen or LHP Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech).
Royals are likely to take a college, and are interested in RHP Matt Barnes (UConn), Hultzen and Bradley.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #12 on:** April 17, 2011, 11:16:20 pm »

On Purke's velocity issues lately. BA LINK

"We're trying to figure it out. It's just a dead arm deal," TCU coach Jim Schlossnagle said.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #13 on:** April 18, 2011, 12:22:07 pm »

Mikie Mahtook. Just sayin'.

moriartp · « **Reply #14 on:** April 18, 2011, 12:32:03 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on April 18, 2011, 12:22:07 pm

Mikie Mahtook. Just sayin'.

.374/.503/.724 with 10 homers, 29 walks, and 24 strikeouts. He's 21-for-26 in stolen base attempts. Sounds like there's a lot to like there. Can he play center in the bigs?

Jacksonian · « **Reply #15 on:** April 18, 2011, 12:53:16 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on April 18, 2011, 12:32:03 pm

.374/.503/.724 with 10 homers, 29 walks, and 24 strikeouts. He's 21-for-26 in stolen base attempts. Sounds like there's a lot to like there. Can he play center in the bigs?

He's not on SBB's level defensively but is just the kind of player who could rise quickly and move Pence!!! to left.

Duder · « **Reply #16 on:** April 18, 2011, 04:18:54 pm »

I like both Bauer and Mahtook. There has been an increase in chatter that Bauer won't make it out of the top 10, though.

jbm · « **Reply #17 on:** April 18, 2011, 04:35:43 pm »

You made me look up how he is doing. Stats wise, he is besting Cole. Also noticed that Plutko must be their third starter.

The guy at baseball beginnings had some video on Bauer. He thinks pretty highly of him.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #18 on:** April 19, 2011, 10:15:25 pm »

"TCU's Matt Purke out indefinitely w/ soreness in throwing shoulder. Seeing famed Dr. James Andrews Wednesday in Florida." - @FollowtheFrogs TWITTER LINK

Hornstros · « **Reply #19 on:** April 20, 2011, 10:01:35 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on April 18, 2011, 12:53:16 pm

He's not on SBB's level defensively but is just the kind of player who could rise quickly and move Pence!!! to left.

SBB?

Jacksonian · « **Reply #20 on:** April 20, 2011, 10:43:51 am »

Quote from: Hornstros on April 20, 2011, 10:01:35 am

SBB?

Budgirl may harm you.

Sweet Baby Bourn.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #21 on:** April 21, 2011, 09:09:47 am »

Game report on Guerrierri.

Sounds like a Heck-kind of player in the Lyles/Folty mold.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/04/game-report-taylor-guerrieri/

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #22 on:** April 25, 2011, 05:20:43 pm »

Not a mock draft in the "projecting who we think each team will take" sense, but a few of BA's guys did a draft based on who they would take, factoring in needs and money. With the #11 pick, they chose prep RHP Dylan Bundy for the Astros, while considering Springer and Jungmann. Bundy has a heavy mid-90's fastball, good curve, and a changeup that should be serviceable. He's a little shorter than a typical Heck HS pitcher, but his clean mechanics would be looked at favorably.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-dish/2011/2611619.html

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #23 on:** April 30, 2011, 12:51:46 pm »

PGCrosschecker posted a new mock yesterday, matching us with Matt Barnes. At this point, it's not really based off of any real connection, but I'd be happy with that pick. Barnes is a big, durable RHP with a good arm (mid-90's FB) and good amount of polish. No way he would make it to #11 in most drafts.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5563

jbm · « **Reply #24 on:** April 30, 2011, 05:16:43 pm »

I don't get to see much college baseball, and I generally tune in at the wrong time. I've only seen Cole once, last year in CWS game which he struggled, although I got a sense of his stuff. I happen to be come across a Virginia game last weekend, Hultzen is on the mound and is getting tagged for four runs or so in one inning by NC State. I had no sense of his greatness, at all.

I always wonder just how much consensus there really is about some of those top guys.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #25 on:** May 05, 2011, 02:41:25 pm »

Just over a month away... (June 6-8)

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #26 on:** May 05, 2011, 03:12:56 pm »

Top 5 prospects in the Houston Area

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/7549294.html

1. Daniel Mengden

Westside, RHP/C, 6-2, 190

The righthander, who has a strong fastball in the low 90s, has signed to play for Texas A&M. He has developed better as a catcher and hitter for the Wolves and could have a promising future behind the plate, according to scouts.

2. Bryan Brickhouse

The Woodlands, RHP/OF, 6-2, 190

The breaking-ball pitcher, who has signed to play for North Carolina, has turned heads with his pitching arsenal. Scouts consider him a wild card who could go anywhere in the first five rounds of the MLB draft.

3. Chris McFarland

Lufkin, IF/OF, 6-1, 195

McFarland, who has signed to play for Rice, has impressed scouts with his bat speed and line-drive power. When he's on base, he is a viable threat to opposing teams because of his speed.

4. Drake Roberts

Brenham, IF, 5-9, 160

Although Roberts, who has signed to play for Arkansas, is short in stature, he has proved to be a reliable hitter with quick bat speed. He has also dazzled scouts with his quick feet and discipline on defense.

5. Cody Glenn

Westbury Christian, LHP/1B, 6-4, 180

Glenn's height is an asset, and his pitching arsenal consists of a devastating curveball, a strong fastball and a developing changeup, according to scouts. He has signed to play for LSU.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #27 on:** May 06, 2011, 11:05:21 am »

For fun, here are, IMHO, the full season prospects graphically by position and in no particular order. The best quality and depth are at 2B and RHP. CF has a little, otherwise, they need more everywhere. The Astros obviously have some talent below this in the short-seaon leagues. But, as they aren't playing yet and have a higher than this group washout rate I'm not including them. As for the draft, I'm sure they'll take the best player available. But, if they have multiple players at the same rating when it's their time to pick in the first few rounds I'd expect them to not look RHP and 2B.

   Shuck
   Steele
   Wates
J.D. Martinez Austin Gaston



   Villar Paredes
   Mier Altuve
   DeShields
   Vallejo
Kvasnicka Kiki Hernandez Nash
Meyer Clemens
Hinze

   RHP LHP
   Lyles Arguello
   Perez Keuchel
   Villar Luis Cruz
   Seaton Dydalewicz
   Greenwalt
   Buchanan
   Cisnero
   Foltynewicz
   Bushue
   Quevedo
   Minaya
   Alaniz


   Garcia
   Wallace
   Pena
Heath

Edited to make Navin happy. That's the kind of bus driver I am.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #28 on:** May 06, 2011, 12:06:22 pm »

No Heath at catcher. What about Hinze at 1st?

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #29 on:** May 06, 2011, 12:12:20 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 06, 2011, 11:05:21 am

For fun, here are, IMHO, the full season prospects graphically by position and in no particular order.

Very cool!

Jacksonian · « **Reply #30 on:** May 06, 2011, 12:39:25 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 06, 2011, 12:06:22 pm

No Heath at catcher. What about Hinze at 1st?

I ain't perfect.

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #31 on:** May 06, 2011, 01:09:03 pm »

Wasn't meant to be a critique, sorry if it came off that way. I was just curious if maybe you thought they didn't belong.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #32 on:** May 06, 2011, 01:27:45 pm »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 06, 2011, 01:09:03 pm

Wasn't meant to be a critique, sorry if it came off that way. I was just curious if maybe you thought they didn't belong.

I don't use sarcasm enough here for folks to notice. No biggie.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #33 on:** May 06, 2011, 01:31:02 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 06, 2011, 01:27:45 pm

I don't use sarcasm enough here for folks to notice. No biggie.

The above is Jacksonian being sarcastic? Or is it? My feeble little brain can't handle the potential paradox here...

austro · « **Reply #34 on:** May 06, 2011, 01:34:38 pm »

The left side of the infield looks a little frightening.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #35 on:** May 06, 2011, 02:06:06 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 06, 2011, 01:31:02 pm

The above is Jacksonian being sarcastic? Or is it? My feeble little brain can't handle the potential paradox here...

Only the edit note in my graphic. Maybe. One thing you can be sure of, there's no humor in the lack of depth and talent outside of 2B and RHP.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #36 on:** May 06, 2011, 02:21:39 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 06, 2011, 01:34:38 pm

The left side of the infield looks a little frightening.

Shortstop doesn't have a lot of depth, but the guys there aren't shabby. Mier has gotten back on track and has received JJ Hardy comps. If Villar can slow the game down, he has an even higher ceiling. Third is still iffy, but hopefully CJ can buy some time for Kvasnicaka or someone else to develop.

Mike S. · « **Reply #37 on:** May 08, 2011, 11:48:10 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 06, 2011, 02:06:06 pm

Only the edit note in my graphic. Maybe. One thing you can be sure of, there's no humor in the lack of depth and talent outside of 2B and RHP.

I'd have to think, though, that the old adage one can never have enough pitching would still hold sway.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #38 on:** May 09, 2011, 02:09:54 pm »

John Sickels at Minor League Ball has posted his first 2011 mock draft. LINK

11) Astros: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Oklahoma HS: The Astros have been attracted to high school arms, and Bundy makes a lot of sense here. It comes down to him or Taylor Guerrieri, but Bundy has a bit more polish and is closer geographically.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #39 on:** May 09, 2011, 03:08:37 pm »

Baseball Beginnings scouting reports/write-ups on Dylan Bundy: LINK1; LINK2

jbm · « **Reply #40 on:** May 09, 2011, 04:42:37 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 09, 2011, 02:09:54 pm

John Sickels at Minor League Ball has posted his first 2011 mock draft. LINK

11) Astros: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Oklahoma HS: The Astros have been attracted to high school arms, and Bundy makes a lot of sense here. It comes down to him or Taylor Guerrieri, but Bundy has a bit more polish and is closer geographically.

Closer geographically? WTF. I doubt his Okieness means anything to them.

Jungmann going 23rd?

I have no idea who they will take, but at a stocky 6-1, he doesn't exactly fit the Lyles/Bushue/Folty profile.

moriartp · « **Reply #41 on:** May 09, 2011, 05:41:37 pm »

Quote from: jbm on May 09, 2011, 04:42:37 pm

Closer geographically? WTF. I doubt his Okieness means anything to them.

Jungmann going 23rd?

I have no idea who they will take, but at a stocky 6-1, he doesn't exactly fit the Lyles/Bushue/Folty profile.

Agreed, his relative geographical proximity is irrelevant. Bundy doesn't fit the mold, but on the other hand some scouts have been quoted as saying they think he's the top overall talent in the draft. Any way you slice it, it looks like there are going to be some damn talented players available at 11.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #42 on:** May 09, 2011, 07:15:42 pm »

Heck has been quoted as saying that all things equal, he'd rather miss big. But, if a 6'1" RHP is clearly the best talent available, I don't think they would pass on him just to fit a mold.

Reuben · « **Reply #43 on:** May 10, 2011, 02:20:23 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on May 09, 2011, 05:41:37 pm

Any way you slice it, it looks like there are going to be some damn talented players available at 11.

The drawback to this is that it makes it all the more crucial that the Astros choose wisely (and luckily) with their top picks. If several other teams wind up with All-Stars and you get a career minor leaguer, that could hurt pretty bad.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #44 on:** May 11, 2011, 02:53:35 pm »

Tweet from John Morosi of FoxSports.com:

Not clear if agreement will be in place for Jim Crane to buy Astros before June draft, but that’s believed to be his preference.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #45 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:10:35 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 11, 2011, 02:53:35 pm

Tweet from John Morosi of FoxSports.com:

Not clear if agreement will be in place for Jim Crane to buy Astros before June draft, but that’s believed to be his preference.

Guessing that's implying Crane is the one who wants the deal in place. If so, not sure how to take that statement. Could mean that he wants the deal in place so he can make a splash with the draft, or it could simply mean he wants a deal in place so he has a say in how much money he'll have to pay the draftees.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #46 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:16:31 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 11, 2011, 03:10:35 pm

not sure how to take that statement. Could mean that he wants the deal in place so he can make a splash with the draft, or it could simply mean he wants a deal in place so he has a say in how much money he'll have to pay the draftees.

Means he wants to make a splash. [/optimist]

Ron Brand · « **Reply #47 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:18:09 pm »

He's also going to have to get MLB approval before then.

moriartp · « **Reply #48 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:18:18 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 11, 2011, 03:16:31 pm

Means he wants to make a splash. [/optimist]

ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #49 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:20:49 pm »

Read somewhere today that there will still be 'arms' available in the 3rd round this year that could have gone in the 1st round in 2010. Gonna be an interesting draft indeed!

MusicMan · « **Reply #50 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:22:01 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 11, 2011, 03:20:49 pm

Read somewhere today that there will still be 'arms' available in the 3rd round this year that could have gone in the 1st round in 2010. Gonna be an interesting draft indeed!

I believe that was Sickels, positing that some teams might gain by actually going for bats early knowing that so many arms are around for later rounds.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #51 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:27:29 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 11, 2011, 03:10:35 pm

Guessing that's implying Crane is the one who wants the deal in place. If so, not sure how to take that statement. Could mean that he wants the deal in place so he can make a splash with the draft, or it could simply mean he wants a deal in place so he has a say in how much money he'll have to pay the draftees.

It's very difficult to make a splash in the mlb draft because there are no trades and picks take time to get to the majors. The splashes occur at draft time with pick #1. He gets the kind of attention no one else does. Beyond that you have to pick a player not expected to go as high as you pick him (read, bad splash) or a name player (Clemens for example) at the front of the draft.

If it actually has to do with the draft as opposed to the earlier the better, it likely has to do with Crane wanting to know what's going on in the draft room. If I were him I'd want to know how the Astros personnel operate ASAP.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #52 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:27:48 pm »

Quote from: Ron Brand on May 11, 2011, 03:18:09 pm

He's also going to have to get MLB approval before then.

I've been wondering how much Crane being a 'new owner' at or around the draft would make Crane feel the need to adhere to Bud's slotting. Right or wrong, I've come to the conclusion that it won't affect him negatively. With mandatory slotting likely in the 2012 draft, I'm hoping that 2011 slotting guidelines won't really be that much of an issue as (I presume) there will be a lot of over-slot deals this year.

Another thought re: 'making a splash' vs. slotting guidelines. Crane needs to get folks in the seats and start off his tenure as owner with building some good will. I'm 'hoping' one of the ways he'll try to do that is with some big money on draft and international free agent signings (i.e. "I'm willing to spend the money it takes to make this team better. That starts with spending money on young talent...).

ETA: I'm also afraid making a splash could mean locking up Hunter to a long term deal...

Ebby Calvin · « **Reply #53 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:36:03 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 11, 2011, 03:27:48 pm

Another thought re: 'making a splash' vs. slotting guidelines. Crane needs to get folks in the seats and start off his tenure as owner with building some good will. I'm 'hoping' one of the ways he'll try to do that is with some big money on draft and international free agent signings (i.e. "I'm willing to spend the money it takes to make this team better. That starts with spending money on young talent...).

ETA: I'm also afraid making a splash could mean locking up Hunter to a long term deal...

Damn you OSF. At least give me tme to crack a smile before you punch me in the junk.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #54 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:40:11 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 11, 2011, 03:27:29 pm

It's very difficult to make a splash in the mlb draft because there are no trades and picks take time to get to the majors.

Disagree to an extent. Think luring potentially 'unsignables' in the later rounds with big money could be considered making a splash. (Semi) example: paying a couple of 'Jacoby Jones type' prospects (picked in later rounds but paying 7 figures) could 'make a splash.' Might mean that Crane ends up paying too much for some kids, but would probably be seen as 'progress' by the masses (and I certainly won't bitch about some extra 'high ceiling' type prospects in the system!).

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #55 on:** May 11, 2011, 03:41:42 pm »

Quote from: Ebby Calvin on May 11, 2011, 03:36:03 pm

Damn you OSF. At least give me tme to crack a smile before you punch me in the junk.

Yep, that was hitting below the belt... My bad... again... ('tis not my day today I guess...).

pots · « **Reply #56 on:** May 11, 2011, 04:29:06 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 11, 2011, 03:40:11 pm

Disagree to an extent. Think luring potentially 'unsignables' in the later rounds with big money could be considered making a splash. (Semi) example: paying a couple of 'Jacoby Jones type' prospects (picked in later rounds but paying 7 figures) could 'make a splash.' Might mean that Crane ends up paying too much for some kids, but would probably be seen as 'progress' by the masses (and I certainly won't bitch about some extra 'high ceiling' type prospects in the system!).

Tend to agree here. Especially given how deep this draft is being described. I imagine there might be quite a few players that make it known they won't sign for 3rd round money thinking that another draft they would be 1st round talent.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #57 on:** May 11, 2011, 04:41:08 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 11, 2011, 03:40:11 pm

Disagree to an extent. Think luring potentially 'unsignables' in the later rounds with big money could be considered making a splash. (Semi) example: paying a couple of 'Jacoby Jones type' prospects (picked in later rounds but paying 7 figures) could 'make a splash.' Might mean that Crane ends up paying too much for some kids, but would probably be seen as 'progress' by the masses (and I certainly won't bitch about some extra 'high ceiling' type prospects in the system!).

Maybe, but he hasn't given any indication that he's willing to do that. Plus, Jacoby Jones types won't get AIS in Houston in 2012.

One way to get a splash in the first round is to take a college player that they would push to Houston by Sept 2012 and say as much when they draft him.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #58 on:** May 11, 2011, 04:42:23 pm »

Quote from: pots on May 11, 2011, 04:29:06 pm

Especially given how deep this draft is being described. I imagine there might be quite a few players that make it known they won't sign for 3rd round money thinking that another draft they would be 1st round talent.

IMO this is a real possibility for the high school prospects drafted in rounds 2 and 3.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #59 on:** May 11, 2011, 05:05:21 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 11, 2011, 04:41:08 pm

Maybe, but he hasn't given any indication that he's willing to do that. Plus, Jacoby Jones types won't get AIS in Houston in 2012.

One way to get a splash in the first round is to take a college player that they would push to Houston by Sept 2012 and say as much when they draft him.

To play Devil's Advocate, he hasn't given an indication that he won't be willing to do that, either. It might not be a good idea to give the impression of being a rebel before getting MLB's approval, especially if he's not in great graces after backing out in '08.

The picks themselves aren't going to make a huge impact in attendance this season, but it's the perception they give that will resonate with the fans, especially if the BAs and BPs of the world laud the picks. That gets people talking about the club, gives the local media reason to praise Crane's leadership, all of which builds momentum at the ballpark.

I'm not saying this will be the way things play out, but he's talked about getting people excited about the Astros and, short of an ill-advised trade, that would be the quickest way to create a buzz.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #60 on:** May 11, 2011, 05:08:17 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 11, 2011, 04:41:08 pm

Maybe, but he hasn't given any indication that he's willing to do that.

Agreed. The comment was meant to be about ways to make a splash in the draft. I have no idea what he will or won't do - just a little dreamin' on my part.

Quote

Plus, Jacoby Jones types won't get AIS in Houston in 2012.

IMO at the end of the day it is winning that puts AIS... If you can't do that (which would seem to be hard for a new owner to have a ton of effect on mid-season), one of things that you can do is to 'create a buzz' (so to speak). 1 Jacoby Jones'esque player probably won't do this, but a couple will certainly buy some good press as well as some good will (for a new owner), neither of which will hurt the effort to put AIS in 2012...

OSFs $0.02.

Edited to add "yeah, what astrosfan76 says" (done much less elegantly in my post above...).

Jacksonian · « **Reply #61 on:** May 12, 2011, 10:53:38 am »

If my bead on these scouting reports is right, Kvasnicka would have been seen as a 3rd round talent this year. DeShields and Foltynewicz would have been 2nd rounders. This draft is seriously deep.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #62 on:** May 13, 2011, 09:23:37 am »

From a Justice tweet, so take it for what's it's worth:

Quote

I hear he's a player development guy. RT @RGBIII: @richardjustice is Jim Crane going to spend money or are we going to be stuck watching losing baseball? I need to prepare myself

May shed some light on his interest in the draft.
http://tmi.me/a6t38

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #63 on:** May 13, 2011, 02:24:08 pm »

Baseball America 5/13/11 Mock Draft: LINK (behind the pay wall I think...):

11. ASTROS: Though Houston drafted one shortstop (Jio Mier) in the first round two years ago and traded for another (Jonathan Villar as part of the Roy Oswalt deal) in 2010, Lindor could be the top player left on its board. Jungmann, a fairly local product, would be appealing, as might Connecticut righthander Matt Barnes.

Projected Pick: Francisco Lindor.

Misc. notes:

BA has Cole at #1 and Rendon at #2.
Dylan Bundy (who has been bantered about re: HOU) to AZ at #7.
Jungmann to SD at #10.

austro · « **Reply #64 on:** May 13, 2011, 02:25:22 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 13, 2011, 02:24:08 pm

Jungmann to SD at #10.

That would be frustrating.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #65 on:** May 13, 2011, 02:28:38 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 13, 2011, 02:25:22 pm

That would be frustrating.

I presumed you were referring to taking a 'toolsy' infielder at #11...

I should add a couple of things here before referring to him as 'toolsy.'

Could be the youngest player in the draft. Will stick at SS. Switch hitter. Plus makeup. (with the exception of the switch hitting, reminds me of a lot of stuff I read about Jio).

Lindor scouting reports:

The good: (Diamondscape Scouting)

The semi-indifferent: (Baseball Beginnings)

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #66 on:** May 13, 2011, 02:45:48 pm »

Link to free BA 5/13 mock draft info: LINK

Jacksonian · « **Reply #67 on:** May 13, 2011, 02:52:14 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 13, 2011, 02:45:48 pm

Link to free BA 5/13 mock draft info: LINK

On that board Springer would be the splash guy. Potential very fast riser.

austro · « **Reply #68 on:** May 13, 2011, 03:47:30 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 13, 2011, 02:28:38 pm

I presumed you were referring to taking a 'toolsy' infielder at #11...

No, actually, I was referring to Jungmann being so tantalizing within reach and then disappearing. Of course, I have no idea whether the Astros' front office (current or future) think Jungmann is a good choice or not.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #69 on:** May 16, 2011, 06:09:44 pm »

FWIW, Olney tweeted that Crane's group is going to be allowed to sit in on the draft process. (Is one allowed to Cabrera one's own self?)

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #70 on:** May 16, 2011, 06:22:05 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 16, 2011, 06:09:44 pm

FWIW, Olney tweeted that Crane's group is going to be allowed to sit in on the draft process. (Is one allowed to Cabrera one's own self?)

I think I'd generally call doing so a no-no, but ya-know, I liked what you wrote in this thread quite a bit. When I read it again, I found that I liked the statement even more. Then I read the other draft and presser comments, and liked it more still... What can I say, I'm getting kinda stoked!!!

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #71 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:45:35 am »

Listening to the radio this morning, Drayton said that he will still oversee all decisions until the sale is finalized, He also went out of his way to mention that he plans on being heavily involved with the draft. Which is a problem that hopefully is gone once Crane takes over.

So if Crane is going to be involved and Drayton is stating that he plans on having the final say, who wins out? Does Crane communicate to Ed and Heck which direction he wants to go, does Crane just sit back and evaluate Ed and Heck's process?

If you want to fill a system with guys closer to MLB ready, do they start going after college guys in the first couple of rounds?

pots · « **Reply #72 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:55:04 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 17, 2011, 10:45:35 am

Listening to the radio this morning, Drayton said that he will still oversee all decisions until the sale is finalized, He also went out of his way to mention that he plans on being heavily involved with the draft.

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Unless he plans on signing all of them quickly before the deal goes through as a last second gift to the Astros. Highly doubtful.

Are draft signing bonuses paid immediately, or at a later date?

Navin R Johnson · « **Reply #73 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:56:21 am »

I don't think it makes any sense either, but that is what he stated.

jbm · « **Reply #74 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:58:47 am »

Hopefully it is just the onset of senility on Drayton's part.

pots · « **Reply #75 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:03:40 am »

From mlbtr:
"Teams are hearing that the asking price for Dylan Bundy is $30MM for six years and that it will cost $20MM over five years to sign Archie Bradley, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (Twitter links). No draft deal has ever been worth $20MM, so the high schoolers' asking prices are sure to scare away less serious teams. "

Umm, is this normal? What will Rendon and Cole want?

Jacksonian · « **Reply #76 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:10:12 am »

Quote from: Navin R Johnson on May 17, 2011, 10:45:35 am

Listening to the radio this morning, Drayton said that he will still oversee all decisions until the sale is finalized, He also went out of his way to mention that he plans on being heavily involved with the draft. Which is a problem that hopefully is gone once Crane takes over.

So if Crane is going to be involved and Drayton is stating that he plans on having the final say, who wins out? Does Crane communicate to Ed and Heck which direction he wants to go, does Crane just sit back and evaluate Ed and Heck's process?

If you want to fill a system with guys closer to MLB ready, do they start going after college guys in the first couple of rounds?

I read this as being less there than was actually said. Drayton knows he's on the hook if some weird hangup occurs with the sale. So, he's going to be there and operate as he always has. Since 2008 that's led to good drafts.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #77 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:11:54 am »

Quote from: pots on May 17, 2011, 11:03:40 am

From mlbtr:
"Teams are hearing that the asking price for Dylan Bundy is $30MM for six years and that it will cost $20MM over five years to sign Archie Bradley, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (Twitter links). No draft deal has ever been worth $20MM, so the high schoolers' asking prices are sure to scare away less serious teams. "

If true, this, IMO, is the first real sign that the high schoolers' handlers know just how deep this draft is. In future years it's possible Bundy and Bradley could go #1 or #2.

jbm · « **Reply #78 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:13:12 am »

Are they Boras' clients?

I've heard arguments on both sides, but I hope they go to the hard slot. Agents are extremely annoying.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #79 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:20:25 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 17, 2011, 11:11:54 am

If true, this, IMO, is the first real sign that the high schoolers' handlers know just how deep this draft is. In future years it's possible Bundy and Bradley could go #1 or #2.

With mandatory slotting that certainly ain't gonna net them $20-$30M no less (or $10M to $15M for that matter)...

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #80 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:20:52 am »

Quote from: jbm on May 17, 2011, 11:13:12 am

Are they Boras' clients?

Sounds like they are Bubba Jones clients to me...

pots · « **Reply #81 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:21:19 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 17, 2011, 11:11:54 am

If true, this, IMO, is the first real sign that the high schoolers' handlers know just how deep this draft is. In future years it's possible Bundy and Bradley could go #1 or #2.

Takes balls for a pitcher to pass up 2-4+ million dollars, and risk injury over 2 years of college ball, all to cash in on an early huge payday. I could see a position player, but a pitcher? Plus given the possibility of slot rules when they are available again.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #82 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:25:02 am »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 17, 2011, 11:20:25 am

With mandatory slotting that certainly ain't gonna net them $20-$30M no less (or $10M to $15M for that matter)...

There is no mandatory slotting.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #83 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:27:15 am »

Quote from: pots on May 17, 2011, 11:21:19 am

Takes balls for a pitcher to pass up 2-4+ million dollars, and risk injury over 2 years of college ball, all to cash in on an early huge payday. I could see a position play, but a pitcher? Plus given the possibility of slot rules when they are available again.

Go one year to community college and then come out. I didn't say it was smart, just that handlers can see what we see.

jbm · « **Reply #84 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:29:01 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 17, 2011, 11:27:15 am

Go one year to community college and then come out. I didn't say it was smart, just that handlers can see what we see.

Isn't the slotting issue up in the air, and might be a hard slot by the next draft?

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #85 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:32:05 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 17, 2011, 11:25:02 am

There is no mandatory slotting.

Sorry, meant after this season.

Quote from: jbm on May 17, 2011, 11:29:01 am

Isn't the slotting issue up in the air, and might be a hard slot by the next draft?

This. Its supposedly very high on Bud's to-do list in this years CBA negotiations.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #86 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:33:24 am »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 17, 2011, 11:32:05 am

Sorry, meant after this season.

This. Its supposedly very high on Bud's to-do list in this years CBA negotiations.

Until it's a done deal it doesn't exist. Handlers can't play hardball if they start from mandatory slotting.

MusicMan · « **Reply #87 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:37:11 am »

Quote from: pots on May 17, 2011, 11:21:19 am

Takes balls for a pitcher to pass up 2-4+ million dollars, and risk injury over 2 years of college ball, all to cash in on an early huge payday. I could see a position play, but a pitcher? Plus given the possibility of slot rules when they are available again.

Signed,
Matt Purke

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #88 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:51:18 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 17, 2011, 11:33:24 am

Until it's a done deal it doesn't exist. Handlers can't play hardball if they start from mandatory slotting.

Negotiation 101 there mi amigo. Whether it is gonna be or not, I'm certainly gonna lead with 'it will be' and see where that takes me.

I've settled more than a couple of cases knowing seeing the writing on the wall regarding an on-point appellate case decision that was coming down sooner rather than later. Got legit money on all of them, but certainly would have required more money but for the real and present risk of taking a huge hit by waiting. Frankly, I don't see this as much different from the situation these kids find themselves in. The writing is on the wall regarding mandatory slotting. Will it actually happen? At this point no one can say with certainty, but its looking pretty likely. Because it actually hasn't happened, the kids will keep some bargaining power. However, the real threat of mandatory slotting will cost them some too...

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #89 on:** May 17, 2011, 12:43:08 pm »

Quote from: pots on May 17, 2011, 10:55:04 am

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Unless he plans on signing all of them quickly before the deal goes through as a last second gift to the Astros. Highly doubtful.

Are draft signing bonuses paid immediately, or at a later date?

Pretty sure they are paid when the player is signed, unless the player signs a multisport or MLB-deal, which are spread out.

roadrunner · « **Reply #90 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:08:07 pm »

Anyone see what Keith Law had in his mock draft?

moriartp · « **Reply #91 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:24:33 pm »

Quote from: roadrunner on May 17, 2011, 09:08:07 pm

Anyone see what Keith Law had in his mock draft?

Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
Bradley is trying to prove the adage that it's not how you start in the draft, but how you finish, as he's showing better velocity than ever down the stretch with a plus-plus curveball. The Astros typically stay close to slot but could spread out Bradley's bonus because he's a two-sport athlete. I've also heard they're interested in Lindor if he gets here, Gray or Cory Spangenberg.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #92 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:28:53 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on May 17, 2011, 09:24:33 pm

Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
Bradley is trying to prove the adage that it's not how you start in the draft, but how you finish, as he's showing better velocity than ever down the stretch with a plus-plus curveball. The Astros typically stay close to slot but could spread out Bradley's bonus because he's a two-sport athlete. I've also heard they're interested in Lindor if he gets here, Gray or Cory Spangenberg.

I could see Bradley. He doesn't have the command they have gone for in previous drafts with their 1st-round HS picks, but has the body and FB velocity. Who is Spangenberg, btw?

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #93 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:30:44 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 17, 2011, 09:28:53 pm

Who is Spangenberg, btw?

Had to look that one up as well. Here is a link to Sickles comments on him.

moriartp · « **Reply #94 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:38:09 pm »

I've read in a couple of places that CF might be Spangenberg's ultimate destination.

austro · « **Reply #95 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:40:16 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on May 17, 2011, 09:38:09 pm

I've read in a couple of places that CF might be Spangenberg's ultimate destination.

That's an unusual transition.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #96 on:** May 17, 2011, 09:55:52 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on May 17, 2011, 09:38:09 pm

I've read in a couple of places that CF might be Spangenberg's ultimate destination.

That would be a strange transition, but it appears he has the speed for it (29 SB). If defense is a priority, as Crane has stated, they would have to see something there to take him that high. In some ways, he sounds like a Lonnie Chisenhall-type, though Chisenhall had to move off SS.

moriartp · « **Reply #97 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:19:09 pm »

Various reports from BA:

5/16 top 60: (31) Above-average runner and one of the draft's best pure hitters earns Chris Coghlan comparisons

4/12 top 50: (36) May have to move off third base, though he's one of the best pure hitters available.

5/13 mock: (Padres at 25) ...one of the draft's top hitters and fastest runners...

9/9 Valley League top 10 (so somewhat out of date by comparison): He shows an advanced feel for hitting with wood, using a short, compact swing to consistently drive pitches to the gaps, although he remains vulnerable to inside fastballs. At shortstop, he exhibits soft hands and sure actions. However, he lacks the arm strength to play on the left side of the infield, which will force him over to second base—where he played this spring at Virginia Military Institute—at the next level. Spangenberg is very instinctive, which is most apparent on the basepaths, where his average speed plays up.

Keith Law's 4/29 top 50: Spangenberg's stock is rising very quickly between his plus running speed -- comfortably a 70, could push him to an 80 -- and a swing that scouts love.

Goldstein's 5/17 top 20 at BP:
Pros: Spangenberg is the best junior college player in the country and has been flirting with a .500 batting average for much of the spring. He has outstanding bat speed and an intrinsic feel for contact. His well above-average speed makes him dangerous on the basepaths.
Cons: He's not a good defender at any infield position, and scouts expect him to move to center field as a pro. He lacks the strength to project for more than gap power with 10-12 home runs per year.

I guess I got the CF thing from BP earlier today. Consensus seems to be that he can run and he can hit.

Reuben · « **Reply #98 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:39:01 pm »

Do the Astros have any extra picks in this draft? I can't think of any. With the depth of this draft, that's a shame... can't think of any FA's-to-be that would net them an extra pick next year, either.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #99 on:** May 17, 2011, 10:47:55 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 17, 2011, 10:39:01 pm

Do the Astros have any extra picks in this draft? I can't think of any. With the depth of this draft, that's a shame... can't think of any FA's-to-be that would net them an extra pick next year, either.

No and no (unless Barmes, Hall or Q turn into Babe Ruth overnight...).

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #100 on:** May 17, 2011, 11:18:12 pm »

Picked up bits and pieces through various portions of the interwebs (thanks AlGore)

K-Law's 5/17/11 mock draft:

1. Danny Hultzen
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Trevor Bauer
4. Dylan Bundy
5. Geritt Cole
6. Alex Meyer
7. Francisco Lindor
8. Sonny Gray
9. Bubba Starling
10. Matt Barnes
11. Archie Bradley
12. Taylor Jungmann
13. Taylor Guerrieri
14. Cory Spangenberg
15. Mikie Mahtook
16. Javier Baez
17. Jose Fernandez
18. George Springer
19. Jed Bradley
20. John Stilson
21. Josh Bell
22. Larry Greene
23. Brian Goodwin
24. Joe Ross
25. Tyler Anderson
26. Blake Swihart
27. Grayson Garvin
28. Henry Owens
29. Robert Stephenson
30. Tyler Beede
31. Levi Michael
32. Brandon Nim

Mike S. · « **Reply #101 on:** May 18, 2011, 12:39:39 am »

Quote from: moriartp on May 17, 2011, 10:19:09 pm

Goldstein's 5/17 top 20 at BP:
Pros: Spangenberg is the best junior college player in the country and has been flirting with a .500 batting average for much of the spring. He has outstanding bat speed and an intrinsic feel for contact. His well above-average speed makes him dangerous on the basepaths.
Cons: He's not a good defender at any infield position, and scouts expect him to move to center field as a pro. He lacks the strength to project for more than gap power with 10-12 home runs per year.

Why am I thinking Jason Tyner revisited?

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #102 on:** May 18, 2011, 09:27:01 am »

Quote from: Mike S. on May 18, 2011, 12:39:39 am

Why am I thinking Jason Tyner revisited?

File this under the "but what do I know" column:

Not a big fan of Spanbenberg's toolset. Not that he won't become a good player, because he might. Scouts who have seen him apparently like his swing. I know you draft BPA, but I don't see what he adds to our system. From those reports, he'll either be a 2B or CF. At 2B, we already have multiple fast guys with some pop and decent hitting skills (including last year's 1st-rounder). At CF, we don't have as much depth, but he's unproven there and is just a guy with great (but not elite) speed and a weak arm.

Basically, I just don't see him as a guy you regret not drafting, especially in this class.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #103 on:** May 18, 2011, 09:27:52 am »

Callis is hosting a draft chat at noon today, for anyone who is interested.

moriartp · « **Reply #104 on:** May 18, 2011, 12:58:07 pm »

Callis weighs on on Spangenberg: He has one of the most intriguing bats in the draft. The position is the big question. Might not stick in the infield but could hit enough to play an outfield corner. Center field is probably a stretch.

I'll take his opinion over Goldstein's any day.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #105 on:** May 18, 2011, 01:11:36 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on May 18, 2011, 12:58:07 pm

Callis weighs on on Spangenberg: He has one of the most intriguing bats in the draft. The position is the big question. Might not stick in the infield but could hit enough to play an outfield corner. Center field is probably a stretch.

I'll take his opinion over Goldstein's any day.

Meaning he's less valuable than Springer and Mahtook. I can't see the Astros picking Spangenberg in the 1st round.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #106 on:** May 18, 2011, 04:01:17 pm »

MLB has their Top 50 draft prospects with video and scouting report up. One of my favorite resources, and it's free.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=draft

Reuben · « **Reply #107 on:** May 18, 2011, 10:02:18 pm »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 18, 2011, 01:11:36 pm

Meaning he's less valuable than Springer and Mahtook. I can't see the Astros picking Spangenberg in the 1st round.

Mayo rates Springer #11 on his list. He looks like a pretty nice player. 5-tool college CF with good raw power, smart baserunner... I wonder if the Astros have their eye on him.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #108 on:** May 19, 2011, 08:16:56 am »

Quote from: Reuben on May 18, 2011, 10:02:18 pm

Mayo rates Springer #11 on his list. He looks like a pretty nice player. 5-tool college CF with good raw power, smart baserunner... I wonder if the Astros have their eye on him.

I would think that they would, at least to some degree. Springer started off slow, but has picked it up recently. Coming into the season, he was a borderline Top 5 guy, but with his slow start and other guys rising, his stock has slipped, at least according to most pundits. Getting him at #11 definitely wouldn't be a bad pick.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #109 on:** May 19, 2011, 03:42:59 pm »

Toy Cannon and (part time scout) Ed Fastia to represent the Astros at this years draft. LINK

kevwun · « **Reply #110 on:** May 20, 2011, 08:17:36 am »

I would love to get Jungmann. He got his 14th straight win last night. The streak goes back to last season. He's 12-0 on the year with a 0.95 era. 109 strikeouts to just 23 walks. He might not have a blazing fastball, but I think he's got a great chance to be a very solid big league starter for a long time.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #111 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:15:50 am »

Jonathan Mayo has his first mock up, though he prefaces it as being a "fool's errand" to pick who'll go where this far away.

As for the local 9, he goes with Jungmann, saying:

Quote

It's a mistake to try and peg the Astros as going one direction or the other (college vs. high school), but a Texas kid who could get to Houston quickly might be too enticing to pass up.

I don't know if the Texas connection will play a factor, though he may have just been trying to come up with something to write there. I'd be indifferent to this pick; not a bad pick, but there's not a lot of room left for growth. You have a pretty good idea what you're getting with him and, depending on how quickly he signs, could have him in Houston in '13.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110519&content_id=19299478&vkey=draftcentral2011&tcid=tw_article_19299478

jbm · « **Reply #112 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:22:50 am »

Quote from: kevwun on May 20, 2011, 08:17:36 am

I would love to get Jungmann. He got his 14th straight win last night. The streak goes back to last season. He's 12-0 on the year with a 0.95 era. 109 strikeouts to just 23 walks. He might not have a blazing fastball, but I think he's got a great chance to be a very solid big league starter for a long time.

I agree. Though there are a number of mocks that have him falling that far, I have a hard to believing he would be available. His overall consistency and consistent performance in big games is impressive.

I don't get the Mayo bit about room for growth. His fastball might not light up a gun, but batters don't square it up very often. It's exactly the solid base one needs to grow. The guys that are 21 with little fastball command are the ones with little room for growth.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #113 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:34:12 am »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 20, 2011, 11:15:50 am

Jonathan Mayo has his first mock up, though he prefaces it as being a "fool's errand" to pick who'll go where this far away.

As for the local 9, he goes with Jungmann, saying:

I don't know if the Texas connection will play a factor, though he may have just been trying to come up with something to write there. I'd be indifferent to this pick; not a bad pick, but there's not a lot of room left for growth. You have a pretty good idea what you're getting with him and, depending on how quickly he signs, could have him in Houston in '13.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110519&content_id=19299478&vkey=draftcentral2011&tcid=tw_article_19299478

That doesn't track with what Wade/Heck have done. They haven't drafted a college pitcher, even though some good ones were available, prior to the 4th round. They've taken 2 college position players and 4 high schoolers in the first round. Given their history, from Mayo's mock, the Astros would either take Mahtook or Guerrieri.

kevwun · « **Reply #114 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:36:10 am »

He was also great in Omaha as a freshman, where many 1st round draft picks have gotten lit up. I think his mental makeup isn't given enough attention. He doesn't rattle and has managed to get even better each year, which is impressive just because of how good he was as a freshman.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #115 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:37:43 am »

Quote from: jbm on May 20, 2011, 11:22:50 am

I agree. Though there are a number of mocks that have him falling that far, I have a hard to believing he would be available. His overall consistency and consistent performance in big games is impressive.

I don't get the Mayo bit about room for growth. His fastball might not light up a gun, but batters don't square it up very often. It's exactly the solid base one needs to grow. The guys that are 21 with little fastball command are the ones with little room for growth.

The growth comment was mine. What I mean by it, is that outside of improving his command, there's not much left to project on. At 21, he probably won't add much more velocity and his secondary pitches probably won't become plus-plus. But, a pitcher with 3 plus pitches, like he has, isn't a bad thing. You just know going into it that you're drafting a solid #2 and that's about it. Again, not a bad thing, but if you want someone who could be more, there are guys with higher ceilings.

kevwun · « **Reply #116 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:40:30 am »

He's alot like Lyles in that regard. You can win a lot of games with guys like Lyles and Jungmann in your rotation.

austro · « **Reply #117 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:45:42 am »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 20, 2011, 11:37:43 am

You just know going into it that you're drafting a solid #2 and that's about it. Again, not a bad thing, but if you want someone who could be more, there are guys with higher ceilings.

Given the Astros' current pitching situation, a solid #2 that you could depend on would be great. Maybe I'm too risk-averse, but I really worry about the effect of taking a risk on some projectable high-schooler and then having him flame out. I'd postpone taking that risk until the cupboard is a little better stocked.

Reuben · « **Reply #118 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:50:13 am »

Quote from: austro on May 20, 2011, 11:45:42 am

Given the Astros' current pitching situation, a solid #2 that you could depend on would be great. Maybe I'm too risk-averse, but I really worry about the effect of taking a risk on some projectable high-schooler and then having him flame out. I'd postpone taking that risk until the cupboard is a little better stocked.

And, they've already got a couple of those guys, Folty and Bushue, although maybe Bushue doesn't throw as hard, I can't remember. Could be a few Dominican kids in that mold too.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #119 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:52:11 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 20, 2011, 11:34:12 am

That doesn't track with what Wade/Heck have done. They haven't drafted a college pitcher, even though some good ones were available, prior to the 4th round. They've taken 2 college position players and 4 high schoolers in the first round. Given their history, from Mayo's mock, the Astros would either take Mahtook or Guerrieri.

I looked back at the Brewers' picks from '00-'06, while Heck was the Eastern Supervisor. They selected a college pitcher from his territory in the 3rd round in '01 and again in '02. All of the other picks from his area were HS pitchers or position players (prep and college). Could just be BPA or Jack Z's preferences, but at some point it could point to his own philosophy.

moriartp · « **Reply #120 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:55:16 am »

Bushue's not a particularly hard thrower. Mayo's picks seem to buck what a lot of other folks are saying (M's want Rendon, Royals want a college pitcher, etc.), but either way he's got pretty much the same set of guys being taken 1-10 as everyone else. Personally, I wouldn't mind me some Josh Bell.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #121 on:** May 20, 2011, 11:59:18 am »

Quote from: austro on May 20, 2011, 11:45:42 am

Given the Astros' current pitching situation, a solid #2 that you could depend on would be great. Maybe I'm too risk-averse, but I really worry about the effect of taking a risk on some projectable high-schooler and then having him flame out. I'd postpone taking that risk until the cupboard is a little better stocked.

That's just the opposite approach that they've been taking, though. Folty, Bushue, Lyles, etc have been the type of guys they've been targeting, and the vibe given about this year's class is that the pitching (prep & college) is even better this year. Again, Jungmann would not be a bad pick, but if the goal is to stock the system with the highest-end talent, there are guys who could develop into more than Jungmann.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #122 on:** May 20, 2011, 12:02:28 pm »

Quote from: moriartp on May 20, 2011, 11:55:16 am

Bushue's not a particularly hard thrower. Mayo's picks seem to buck what a lot of other folks are saying (M's want Rendon, Royals want a college pitcher, etc.), but either way he's got pretty much the same set of guys being taken 1-10 as everyone else. Personally, I wouldn't mind me some Josh Bell.

I wouldn't either, Nash has been the highest-drafted masher in the Heck-era. He was over the Braun and Fielder selections, so I know he's not adverse to selecting mashers. When asked what position Braun would play, he is quoted as saying "#3 hitter." Bell wouldn't fit the pitching/defense mold, but he sounds like he could provide a great bat in a draft that is overshadowed by pitching.

jbm · « **Reply #123 on:** May 20, 2011, 12:32:58 pm »

Quote from: kevwun on May 20, 2011, 11:40:30 am

He's alot like Lyles in that regard. You can win a lot of games with guys like Lyles and Jungmann in your rotation.

I agree. I also think both his and Lyle's ceilings are higher than is normally mentioned. Having solid fastball command with a fastball one can get by with is a great foundation. Not that common. They can continually add wrinkles throughout their careers and continue to improve well past the age most pitchers peak. A slow progression upward, busting that ceiling over such a long time no one really notices.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #124 on:** May 20, 2011, 01:05:30 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 20, 2011, 11:59:18 am

That's just the opposite approach that they've been taking, though. Folty, Bushue, Lyles, etc have been the type of guys they've been targeting, and the vibe given about this year's class is that the pitching (prep & college) is even better this year. Again, Jungmann would not be a bad pick, but if the goal is to stock the system with the highest-end talent, there are guys who could develop into more than Jungmann.

We're back to the annual debate on who they would or wouldn't pick (and lest you think I'm being critical, the opposite'd be true. I proved dead wrong last year in this debate btw...).

Caveats aside, there hasn't really been a 'Jungmann' available to the Astros at their pick. Polished 2-3 type pitcher, not a long road to the majors, I think (hope?) they'd jump on him if he were available. That said, I've seen a couple of mocks now showing the Astros take Lindor. I'm hoping like ~~heck~~ hell that this isn't the case, as it would annoy there crud out of me... (which, I'm afraid, gives it a high likelihood of happening).

moriartp · « **Reply #125 on:** May 20, 2011, 01:37:09 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 20, 2011, 01:05:30 pm

That said, I've seen a couple of mocks now showing the Astros take Lindor. I'm hoping like ~~heck~~ hell that this isn't the case, as it would annoy there crud out of me... (which, I'm afraid, gives it a high likelihood of happening).

Scouts are apparently going nuts over Lindor's talent, so I'd be surprised if he's available at 11. If he is, though, I'd be ecstatic if the Astros popped him. The org's got some talented middle infielders already, but they won't all pan out. The ones who do work out can move to other positions (oh, the beauty of athleticism). DeShields can play the outfield, and I'm sure each of Mier, Villar, and Lindor could handle 2B. The only way there'd be a logjam is if they all turned out to be quality big leaguers, and I wouldn't bet more than a nickel on that.

drew corleone · « **Reply #126 on:** May 20, 2011, 01:47:47 pm »

Obviously, I'm something of a homer regarding Jungmann, but taking a guy that can be in the rotation next season and "tops out" as a #2/#3 seems like a great fit for a club that could likely need to fill in the rotation sooner than later if Myers/Wandy are dealt.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #127 on:** May 20, 2011, 02:45:58 pm »

PGCrosschecker with another mock up, echoing Mayo in regards to there being little concrete information to link clubs to players. Nevertheless, here's their pick:

11. Houston Astros: Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, North Augusta, S.C.
The Astros have taken a best player available approach the past few years, and I think Guerrieri fits that description pretty well at this slot. His live arm and two plus pitches would be a welcome addition to the Houston organization.

Makes sense when looking at past drafts, but who knows at this point.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5677

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #128 on:** May 20, 2011, 02:51:29 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 20, 2011, 02:45:58 pm

Makes sense when looking at past drafts, but who knows at this point.

I'm telling y'all, its going to be Lindor. It will be a choice made purely to irk me... (thanks for the link)

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #129 on:** May 20, 2011, 02:57:37 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 20, 2011, 02:51:29 pm

I'm telling y'all, its going to be Lindor. It will be a choice made purely to irk me... (thanks for the link)

They have him going to the Royals, who apparently are in on him. It would make me happy, also if he was gone before #11. I like him better than Spangenberg, but still not a huge fan. Deshields was that guy for me last year, though I've warmed up to him a little since then.

austro · « **Reply #130 on:** May 20, 2011, 05:23:47 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 20, 2011, 02:57:37 pm

Deshields was that guy for me last year, though I've warmed up to him a little since then.

I know next to nothing, but I'm completely underwhelmed by DeShields. I won't be the least bit surprised if he never wears a Houston uniform.

Reuben · « **Reply #131 on:** May 20, 2011, 05:56:17 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 20, 2011, 05:23:47 pm

I know next to nothing, but I'm completely underwhelmed by DeShields. I won't be the least bit surprised if he never wears a Houston uniform.

How come?

chuck · « **Reply #132 on:** May 20, 2011, 07:18:11 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 20, 2011, 05:56:17 pm

How come?

Because he can't play defense. At all.

austro · « **Reply #133 on:** May 20, 2011, 07:36:09 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 20, 2011, 05:56:17 pm

How come?

I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that he's good at getting on base, which isn't helpful if his big plus is his speed. It doesn't sound like he's doing well on defense, but he should probably get some slack since he's changing positions. But I have to think that if he were a good fielder he would have been playing shortstop in high school.

I generally have an unhealthy level of cynicism, and I obviously haven't seen him in person, so my opinion is pretty worthless. But I don't have a good feeling about this pick.

chuck · « **Reply #134 on:** May 20, 2011, 07:43:14 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 20, 2011, 07:36:09 pm

But I have to think that if he were a good fielder he would have been playing shortstop in high school.

It's not that he's not a good fielder, he's terrible.

Reuben · « **Reply #135 on:** May 20, 2011, 08:43:35 pm »

Quote from: chuck on May 20, 2011, 07:43:14 pm

It's not that he's not a good fielder, he's terrible.

You don't think it's just that he's learning 2B, huh? Did you see him play CF at all?

chuck · « **Reply #136 on:** May 20, 2011, 08:56:41 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 20, 2011, 08:43:35 pm

You don't think it's just that he's learning 2B, huh? Did you see him play CF at all?

I don't want to be the minor league fan who decides that EVERYTHING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THIS GAME but I've seen him play second through a fair amount of drills (where you get to see them act and react several times a minute rather than several times a game) but I have never once seen him set foot in the outfield. From what I've seen he has stone hands and a wildly inaccurate arm. I'm puzzled as to why the team wants him at second.

But, as I've said before, I'm an idiot fan and not a professional scout and as such I have no idea what players who became good major league fielders looked like at 18.

Ji Mier is also not my favorite prospect in the organization but at a similarly young age he does look to me as if he can field his position.

jbm · « **Reply #137 on:** May 20, 2011, 09:14:31 pm »

What little I've seen of Deshields, I've witnessed the wild throws many times.

Mier has always looked like he could really be a solid glove in my limited observations.

Reuben · « **Reply #138 on:** May 21, 2011, 09:18:25 am »

Great. So what you guys are saying is that, with the #8 overall pick last year, their highest pick since what, Nevin in 1991? They picked Chris Burke again. Or maybe even a worse fielder than Burke. Awesome.

roadrunner · « **Reply #139 on:** May 21, 2011, 09:53:10 am »

I guess this is the beginning of the end of the blind faith in Heck?

But seriously, what about Folty? Has anyone seen him pitch? And what are the thoughts on Kvacknisasdf? I know it's early, but it would be terrible if last year ended up 0 for 3 in the first round.

chuck · « **Reply #140 on:** May 21, 2011, 10:04:38 am »

Quote from: jbm on May 20, 2011, 09:14:31 pm

What little I've seen of Deshields, I've witnessed the wild throws many times.

And let's be clear on this, by 'wild throw' I don't mean 'made the first baseman stretch a bit on what should have been a routine play,' I mean a nine year old in a dad-pitch league throwing the ball over the guy's head or up the line by eight feet. Remember, this is from second base.

jbm · « **Reply #141 on:** May 21, 2011, 08:10:51 pm »

Quote from: Reuben on May 21, 2011, 09:18:25 am

Great. So what you guys are saying is that, with the #8 overall pick last year, their highest pick since what, Nevin in 1991? They picked Chris Burke again. Or maybe even a worse fielder than Burke. Awesome.

It's two months into his first pro season. From what little I've seen, It's only his glove that gives me pause. Seems a little pull happy, but he looks to have some pop for someone his size. Also, he is fast. Overall, he is talented offensively, but raw.

Even though his stats look bad, Folty looks pretty good from what I've seen. I remember people here observing how fast he works. He just looks a little hyped up to me, but when he settles in, he should be fine.

I haven't watched Kvasnicka too close

Duman · « **Reply #142 on:** May 22, 2011, 05:22:57 am »

I saw DeShields play OF - it was impressive. The lapses I saw appeared to be more focus related. The game I saw in Lexington with him at 2nd. Hands were fine but the mechanics of getting the ball out of the glove and making the quick pivot to throw were not there yet. I have faith in him. Best position played who has been in G'ville. Period. Raw but extremely talented.

chuck · « **Reply #143 on:** May 22, 2011, 10:59:08 am »

Quote from: AppyAstros on May 22, 2011, 05:22:57 am

Best position played who has been in G'ville.

Best in terms of most upside, highest ceiling?

Jacksonian · « **Reply #144 on:** May 22, 2011, 12:37:27 pm »

Quote from: chuck on May 22, 2011, 10:59:08 am

Best in terms of most upside, highest ceiling?

The thing with Junior is that he didn't play 2b in high school. He didn't play it at Greeneville. He played it for only a moment in fall instructs. Then got his first extended taste at spring training.

He is a remarkable athlete. There should be the expectation that with time and training he can master 2b in all phases at the professional level. But, it will take time.

For perspective, if he had gone to LSU, he'd be riding the pine. Instead, he's facing some of the best 19, 20, and 21 year old baseball players in the country, as an 18 year old, at a new position, in more innings and at-bats than he's ever had in one season.

JimR · « **Reply #145 on:** May 22, 2011, 04:40:57 pm »

Quote from: kevwun on May 20, 2011, 11:36:10 am

He was also great in Omaha as a freshman, where many 1st round draft picks have gotten lit up. I think his mental makeup isn't given enough attention. He doesn't rattle and has managed to get even better each year, which is impressive just because of how good he was as a freshman.

exacept for his 9th inning relief appearance in game 1 v LSU. if he throws strikes there, we win 2 straight.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #146 on:** May 23, 2011, 11:44:37 am »

Mayo with chat at 1 pm CT

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fan_forum/chat/index.jsp

Jacksonian · « **Reply #147 on:** May 25, 2011, 12:52:48 pm »

Callis at BA has a draft chat at 1pm today if you're interested.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #148 on:** May 25, 2011, 01:32:46 pm »

BA also has their Top 200 list up. The list is free, scouting reports require a subscription.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611794.html

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #149 on:** May 25, 2011, 01:42:00 pm »

Perfect Game has another mock up (from 5/20 - LINK).

11. Houston Astros - Taylor Guerrieri
The Astros have taken a best player available approach the past few years, and I think Guerrieri fits that description pretty well at this slot. His live arm and two plus pitches would be a welcome addition to the Houston organization.

Edited to provide new link to 'cleaned-up' version.

MusicMan · « **Reply #150 on:** May 25, 2011, 01:53:10 pm »

From the Callis chat:

Quote

John (Dallas): Thanks Jim! I love this stuff. Given the depth of pitching in the draft and their recent draft history, I believe the Astros will take a college outfielder at 11. In your opinion will Springer be there or will they have to reach for Mahtook to do so? Thank you.

Jim Callis: Good chance Springer will be there. I don't think Mahtook would be a big reach there, and some guys like him more than Springer. They might be best off not worrying about college and taking a home state product in Josh Bell.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #151 on:** May 25, 2011, 03:09:47 pm »

Astros holding pre-draft workout at MMP tomorrow, per JD & Brown.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #152 on:** May 25, 2011, 03:55:21 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 25, 2011, 03:09:47 pm

Astros holding pre-draft workout at MMP tomorrow, per JD & Brown.

So which one of y'all local reprobates are going to lurk around MMPUS tomorrow and send out discrete PMs letting us know who is showing up?

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #153 on:** May 25, 2011, 04:19:34 pm »

Also from the Callis chat: LINK

Taylor (Houston): How do you, or scouts, see Jungmann's stuff playing out on the MLB level? I know the guy is a winner and has the demeanor/attitude to be a stud, but I wonder just how good his stuff will be against MLB hitters. Thanks for the chat!

Jim Callis: The stuff is very good. Fastball is 91-93 to 95 mph with good sink, angle and depth, his slider is solid and his changeup has promise. He's the type of guy who can really pitch off his fastball and get lefties and righties out with it.

accougars · « **Reply #154 on:** May 25, 2011, 06:36:09 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 25, 2011, 04:19:34 pm

Jim Callis: The stuff is very good. Fastball is 91-93 to 95 mph with good sink, angle and depth, his slider is solid and his changeup has promise. He's the type of guy who can really pitch off his fastball and get lefties and righties out with it.[/i]

As a Texas alum I am probably a little biased, but I keep seeing a lot of similarities between Jungmann and Halladay. The fastball velocity, movement, and command; their size, and even down to the number of letters in their last names!

Jacksonian · « **Reply #155 on:** May 25, 2011, 06:59:51 pm »

Quote from: accougars on May 25, 2011, 06:36:09 pm

As a Texas alum I am probably a little biased, but I keep seeing a lot of similarities between Jungmann and Halladay. The fastball velocity, movement, and command; their size, and even down to the number of letters in their last names! delusional.

FIFReality

accougars · « **Reply #156 on:** May 25, 2011, 07:07:21 pm »

I'm not talking about now, but the pre-draft/minorleague prospect reports on Halladay from the mid to late 90s have some similarities.

Duder · « **Reply #157 on:** May 26, 2011, 10:25:36 am »

Very interesting tidbit from an ESPN insider article this morning. Link for those with insider.

Quote

I've heard from multiple sources that Javier Baez would get heavy consideration at No. 9 from the Cubs if Starling is off the board, as would Archie Bradley. One source called Bradley to Houston at No. 11 a "foregone conclusion."

MusicMan · « **Reply #158 on:** May 26, 2011, 10:31:00 am »

Sickels summary for Bradley:

Quote

Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow, Oklahoma: 6-4, 210, University of Oklahoma recruit. Rated a likely first-rounder pre-season and still does. Has football leverage since he's a great quarterback, too. Athletic, mid-90s fastball, good breaking ball, reasonable level of polish for a young power pitcher, competitive makeup. Would be a top ten guy in a thinner class and might still get there.

JimR · « **Reply #159 on:** May 26, 2011, 10:59:47 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 25, 2011, 06:59:51 pm

FIFReality

agreed and i am a UT fan as well.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #160 on:** May 26, 2011, 11:06:07 am »

I would be ecstatic if Bradley made it that far and we selected him.

PGCrosschecker's scouting report:

Quote

The 6-foot-4, 210-pound Bradley got off to a slower start this spring than Bundy, due in part to his commitment to football. He was a star quarterback for Broken Arrow High during the fall, and has a commitment to Oklahoma to play football. Bradley’s pace gradually warmed up with the weather and by the end of the year he was throwing in the 94-97-mph range consistently, with perhaps the best high-school curve ball in the country, a low- to mid-80s hammer with hard, sharp, biting action and plenty of depth.

PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Archie Bradley, rhp, Broken Arrow HS. Although righthander Michael Fulmer’s rise up the prospect ranks this spring was notable, Bradley’s dominant late-season performance for 6-A state champion Broken Arrow may have vaulted him into top-10 pick conversations and raised his profile to almost the same level as his good friend, righthander Dylan Bundy.

According to BA, Bradley hit 101 on the stadium gun in the Class 6A finals. Saying that Bradley is almost to the same level as Bundy isn't a compliment to be taken lightly, either as there are scouts who think Bundy is the best prep pitcher they've ever seen. Bradley could be a stud.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5715

Jacksonian · « **Reply #161 on:** May 26, 2011, 11:09:04 am »

For those with an BA insider account, let us know who their top high school pitching prospect in Illinois is. The Astros have taken that guy 2 years in a row.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #162 on:** May 26, 2011, 11:15:46 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 26, 2011, 11:09:04 am

For those with an BA insider account, let us know who their top high school pitching prospect in Illinois is. The Astros have taken that guy 2 years in a row.

Nevermind. Nick Burdi probably a 3rd round type.

MusicMan · « **Reply #163 on:** May 26, 2011, 11:16:19 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 26, 2011, 11:09:04 am

For those with an BA insider account, let us know who their top high school pitching prospect in Illinois is. The Astros have taken that guy 2 years in a row.

He's on a mission from God.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #164 on:** May 26, 2011, 11:34:57 pm »

From Keith Law's chat today: LINK

Chel (Houston): So you are convinced if Archie Bradley is still on the board when the Astros pick, he will be the choice?

Klaw (4:18 PM): Convinced might be a little strong, but I think he's their top choice among realistic options.

***

Klaw (4:20 PM): Bradley's legitimately 94-98 on a regular basis and I know he's hit 100 on scouts' guns at least one time this year.

***

Steve (NY): Any chance Bauer or Jungmann fall to the Mets at 13?? Is there a catcher worth drafting at that spot??

Klaw (4:07 PM): Bauer no, Jungmann yes. Jed Bradley will likely be available there too.

Duman · « **Reply #165 on:** May 27, 2011, 04:50:48 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on May 26, 2011, 11:09:04 am

For those with an BA insider account, let us know who their top high school pitching prospect in Illinois is. The Astros have taken that guy 2 years in a row.

I was thinking find the guy with the fewest vowels to total letters ratio, we seem to have taken that guy a bunch too. Daledywicz, Folty, Kvalphabet

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #166 on:** May 27, 2011, 08:13:35 am »

Levine had an article up this morning about Crane being kept in the loop for the draft. He adds a couple of teasers, including this one:

Quote

Right now, area scouts and regional scouts are out seeing college conference tournaments and the ends of high school seasons. Assistant general manager of scouting Bobby Heck hit the ACC tournament in Durham, N.C., and he and his scouts will traverse the country taking a last look, as the Astros have roughly 630 players entered in their files.

If Heck is checking out players at the tournament, it means he's looking at someone(s) in the ACC they're considering with a high pick. Notable ACC players include: Levi Michael (SS) NC, Brad Miller (SS) Clemson, Danny Hultzen (LHP) Virginia, Jed Bradley (LHP) Georgia Tech, and Sean Gilmartin (LHP) Florida State. There are a few other guys who'll probably go 3rd-5th round, but Heck's probably not going just to check them out. Of course, he's doing due diligence and is going to catch other games all over the country, but there may be at least some interest in some of those guys.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2011/05/26/mclane-wade-keeping-cranes-group-in-the-loop-as-draft-approaches/

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #167 on:** May 27, 2011, 10:47:49 am »

Quote from: AppyAstros on May 27, 2011, 04:50:48 am

I was thinking find the guy with the fewest vowels to total letters ratio, we seem to have taken that guy a bunch too. Daledywicz, Folty, Kvalphabet

I'm calling it right now: Jeremy Gabryszski (rhp, Crosby HS) or Joseph Dvorsky (rhp, Texas State)

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #168 on:** May 27, 2011, 12:16:18 pm »

The more I read about Archie Bradley, the more I like. Definitely wouldn't be pissy if the Astros ended up with him at 11.

austro · « **Reply #169 on:** May 27, 2011, 01:05:32 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 27, 2011, 12:16:18 pm

The more I read about Archie Bradley, the more I like. Definitely wouldn't be pissy if the Astros ended up with him at 11.

Until he heads to OU...

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #170 on:** May 27, 2011, 01:09:11 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 27, 2011, 01:05:32 pm

Until he heads to OU...

Why do you say that? The consensus is that he wants to play baseball.

austro · « **Reply #171 on:** May 27, 2011, 01:16:11 pm »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on May 27, 2011, 01:09:11 pm

Why do you say that? The consensus is that he wants to play baseball.

Because I have a nasty pessimistic streak concerning the Astros...

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #172 on:** May 27, 2011, 01:19:02 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 27, 2011, 01:05:32 pm

Until he heads to OU...

Think how awesome it would be if the Astros ended up with a top pitching prospect that hits 100 on the gun *and* the Sooners were to lose a star QB recruit. That'd truly be a win-win!

accougars · « **Reply #173 on:** May 27, 2011, 01:37:02 pm »

Quote from: austro on May 27, 2011, 01:05:32 pm

Until he heads to OU...

He has "committed" to OU, but has not signed a football letter of intent. So, the limited evidence does point to a guy who is signable.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #174 on:** May 27, 2011, 09:51:52 pm »

From BA's 2nd mock (Callis): LINK to free version (partial quote behind pay wall)

Astros: ...Taking a college arm would provide more immediate help, and home-state star Jungmann would appease a disgruntled fan base. Archie Bradley could be tempting, too. Projected Pick: Taylor Jungmann.

Ebby Calvin · « **Reply #175 on:** May 27, 2011, 09:57:55 pm »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 27, 2011, 09:51:52 pm

From BA's 2nd mock (Callis): LINK to free version (partial quote behind pay wall)

Astros: ...Taking a college arm would provide more immediate help, and home-state star Jungmann would appease a disgruntled fan base. Archie Bradley could be tempting, too. Projected Pick: Taylor Jungmann.

Aside from general interest in wins/losses, I hope the "disgruntled fan base" has nothing to do with the pick. It Wade/Heck/Crane/whomever see something they like in Jungmann, fine, but keep me and the other mouth-breathers out of it.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #176 on:** May 27, 2011, 10:02:10 pm »

Quote from: Ebby Calvin on May 27, 2011, 09:57:55 pm

Aside from general interest in wins/losses, I hope the "disgruntled fan base" has nothing to do with the pick. It Wade/Heck/Crane/whomever see something they like in Jungmann, fine, but keep me and the other mouth-breathers out of it.

[Pam Gardner] Mouth breathers will continue to run this franchise as long as I am still in control! [/Pam Gardner]

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #177 on:** May 28, 2011, 08:31:36 am »

Quote from: Ebby Calvin on May 27, 2011, 09:57:55 pm

Aside from general interest in wins/losses, I hope the "disgruntled fan base" has nothing to do with the pick. It Wade/Heck/Crane/whomever see something they like in Jungmann, fine, but keep me and the other mouth-breathers out of it.

I fully agree and get tired of seeing that as a reason for selecting Jungmann. If they like him best, great. If not, pick the guy that you think will help the club most. I don't think they would make a popularity contest out of a draft pick, but doing so is a quick way to go nowhere.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #178 on:** May 28, 2011, 01:24:22 pm »

The first round is getting a little shallower: Conor Glassey tweeted that Josh Bell sent a letter to the MLSB saying that he doesn't want to sign and wants to go to Texas. Callis tweeted that John Stilson has a SLAP tear of his labrum and will have to have surgery.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #179 on:** May 28, 2011, 02:32:38 pm »

Random tweet from McTaggart: LINK

Don't quit your high school football team halfway through the season. Don't ask me how I know. ~

I 'gotta assume' this is draft prospect related. Anyone have a clue about whom this could be referring (or do you think my assumption that it is daft related is off)?

mrpink · « **Reply #180 on:** May 29, 2011, 07:42:57 am »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 27, 2011, 10:47:49 am

I'm calling it right now: Jeremy Gabryszski (rhp, Crosby HS) or Joseph Dvorsky (rhp, Texas State)

Well, Dvorsky DID hurl a four-hit shutout against SFA last night to win their tournament. It's purely the homerism in me, but I hope the Astros pay attention to Texas State this year. I'm still a little butt-hurt that Paul Goldschmidt went so low in the draft two years ago before being taken by Arizona.

GreatBagwellsBeard · « **Reply #181 on:** May 31, 2011, 08:05:41 am »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on May 28, 2011, 02:32:38 pm

Random tweet from McTaggart: LINK

Don't quit your high school football team halfway through the season. Don't ask me how I know. ~

I 'gotta assume' this is draft prospect related. Anyone have a clue about whom this could be referring (or do you think my assumption that it is daft related is off)?

I took that tweet as a rare personal one from McTaggart, referring to himself.

accougars · « **Reply #182 on:** June 01, 2011, 12:35:21 pm »

From BA's draft chat today:

Quote

Ryan (Owasso): Jim, I was shocked to hear Astros on Bradley given his contract demands & team's history of signing slot players. Do you think Crane has already told Drayton & Ed to take BPA and he'll deal with the $$$ after the sale is approved?

Jim Callis: Archie Bradley isn't going to get his $20 million asking price, so I wouldn't read into it. I think the Astros are locked in on best player available--they have to be with as bad as their big league club is and as thin as their farm system is. If Bradley is their guy, he's a better prospect than Zach Lee was last year, so he'll get more money (say, $6 million). But the Astros can give Bradley a two-sport contact and spread the bonus over five years, so they might not be paying him more in 2011 than a straight slot bonus would be anyway.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #183 on:** June 01, 2011, 04:26:29 pm »

Sickels post his Top 100 of the upcoming draft: LINK

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #184 on:** June 01, 2011, 07:33:12 pm »

Quote from: mrpink on May 29, 2011, 07:42:57 am

I'm still a little butt-hurt that Paul Goldschmidt went so low in the draft two years ago before being taken by Arizona.

With good reason. Goldschmidt is a BEAST. 8th round, UGH!

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #185 on:** June 01, 2011, 11:13:03 pm »

McTaggart: Power arms among Astros' Draft priorities

Some nuggets:

"I saw more 95 [mph] this spring than in any other spring," Houston assistant general manager/director of scouting Bobby Heck said.

***

"[Heck] has told me on more than one occasion he feels there's a lot of second-round talent in this Draft, which means we should be able to do well not only in the second round, but thereafter," Wade said. "There is depth in the Draft, a lot if pitching."

Also, looks like they tried pretty hard to get Plutko last year.

The Astros went above MLB's recommended slot to sign players on six occasions last year and had a $1 million offer on the table to seventh-round pick Adam Plutko, a right-hander from Glendora, Calif., but he didn't sign.

dirty steve · « **Reply #186 on:** June 02, 2011, 01:26:21 am »

Houston and Bradley have been in close contact, via twitter @stephen_goff.

Quote

Archie Bradley told me he talked to Astros area scout Jim Stevenson on Monday night. "The Astros have been in pretty good contact," he said.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #187 on:** June 02, 2011, 08:36:17 am »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on June 01, 2011, 11:13:03 pm

McTaggart: Power arms among Astros' Draft priorities

Some nuggets:

"I saw more 95 [mph] this spring than in any other spring," Houston assistant general manager/director of scouting Bobby Heck said.

***

"[Heck] has told me on more than one occasion he feels there's a lot of second-round talent in this Draft, which means we should be able to do well not only in the second round, but thereafter," Wade said. "There is depth in the Draft, a lot if pitching."

Also, looks like they tried pretty hard to get Plutko last year.

The Astros went above MLB's recommended slot to sign players on six occasions last year and had a $1 million offer on the table to seventh-round pick Adam Plutko, a right-hander from Glendora, Calif., but he didn't sign.

The article mentions Guerrerri and Barnes specifically as power arms that could be available, though that could be just to throw out names. The article mentions power bats on the corners, though I get the impression that they'll look that way after the first round. With Bell seemingly out of the picture, grabbing any of the available corner bats (barring Rendon being inexplicably available) would be a fairly big reach.

On a semi-related note to Plutko, watching an LSU broadcast one day, the announcers said that the club also offered Jacoby $2M. The bonus money may have eventually gone to Ovando, but the club was willing to spend some serious money in last year's draft. Makes it seem like paying Bradley might not be that big of a stretch, especially with fewer high picks this year.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #188 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:21:44 am »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on June 02, 2011, 08:36:17 am

Makes it seem like paying Bradley might not be that big of a stretch, especially with fewer high picks this year.

Given that they can spread Bradley's money over 5 years as a multi-sport athlete, I agree that it would be much of a stretch at all. Think I'd be real happy with that pick-up as well!

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #189 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:32:52 am »

Quote from: OregonStrosFan on June 02, 2011, 11:21:44 am

Given that they can spread Bradley's money over 5 years as a multi-sport athlete, I agree that it would be much of a stretch at all. Think I'd be real happy with that pick-up as well!

I wonder how they determine whether a player is "multi-sport" or not. I'm sure it doesn't apply to any one who played at least 2 sports in high school, or you'd see a lot more kids qualifying. If it's only for players who have a scholarship in another sport, would Bradley still qualify, since he has preferred walk-on status, but not a scholarship?

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #190 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:35:51 am »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on June 02, 2011, 11:32:52 am

I wonder how they determine whether a player is "multi-sport" or not. I'm sure it doesn't apply to any one who played at least 2 sports in high school, or you'd see a lot more kids qualifying. If it's only for players who have a scholarship in another sport, would Bradley still qualify, since he has preferred walk-on status, but not a scholarship?

Not sure how the determination is made, but have seen the "Bradley is a two-sport athlete who's bonus can be paid over 5 years" comment enough (BA and others) to believe it is the case.

Jacksonian · « **Reply #191 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:36:14 am »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on June 02, 2011, 08:36:17 am

The article mentions Guerrerri and Barnes specifically as power arms that could be available, though that could be just to throw out names. The article mentions power bats on the corners, though I get the impression that they'll look that way after the first round. With Bell seemingly out of the picture, grabbing any of the available corner bats (barring Rendon being inexplicably available) would be a fairly big reach.

Springer at 11 would not be a reach. That said I'm getting more and more the impression an arm will get picked at 11.

astrosfan76 · « **Reply #192 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:49:59 am »

Quote from: Jacksonian on June 02, 2011, 11:36:14 am

Springer at 11 would not be a reach. That said I'm getting more and more the impression an arm will get picked at 11.

He wouldn't. I just had guys like Dickerson or the Cron brothers in mind when I thought of power corner bats. Just considered him more of a CF.

austro · « **Reply #193 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:58:17 am »

Quote from: astrosfan76 on June 02, 2011, 08:36:17 am

... (barring Rendon being inexplicably available) ...

Has there been any concern expressed about Rendon's shoulder (or about the fact that he's injured both ankles in the last two seasons)? Could he slide because of those injuries?

MusicMan · « **Reply #194 on:** June 02, 2011, 11:58:43 am »

Quote from: austro on June 02, 2011, 11:58:17 am

Has there been any concern expressed about Rendon's shoulder (or about the fact that he's injured both ankles in the last two seasons)? Could he slide because of those injuries?

He could slide all the way to #2 because of that.

austro · « **Reply #195 on:** June 02, 2011, 12:16:16 pm »

Quote from: MusicMan on June 02, 2011, 11:58:43 am

He could slide all the way to #2 because of that.

False hope is still hope.

At Ease · « **Reply #196 on:** June 02, 2011, 12:34:18 pm »

Quote from: austro on June 02, 2011, 11:58:17 am

Has there been any concern expressed about Rendon's shoulder (or about the fact that he's injured both ankles in the last two seasons)? Could he slide because of those injuries?

It was actually the same ankle.

The furthest I think I've seen him slip is to like #4.

He's started to hit the ball with more authority the last two weeks, and played in the field some, which should allay some concerns over his shoulder (though there remains no real info about what's up there).

jbm · « **Reply #197 on:** June 02, 2011, 12:50:13 pm »

I heard that he was playing second when he came back. That might worry some teams.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #198 on:** June 02, 2011, 01:25:50 pm »

Piliere's latest mock draft (Scout.com LINK)

LHP Jed BradleyGeorgia Tech

ANALYSIS: There has been some buzz that Houston May actually be willing to spend big bucks this year, particularly if Bubba Starling were to slide. Most in the industry don’t believe they'll go that way when it comes down it, but the rumors persist about Starling and Archie Bradley. If someone like Jed Bradley is available, it makes their decision easier.

Piliere has Archie Bradley going 12 and Jungmann at 13.

Asked him: "How would you rate best pick, long term, for the Astros: Archie Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley sound about right?"

His response: "Sounds about right. Archie definitely has the most upside."

Regarding Jungmann, he noted earlier in the draft that he definitely didn't see him as a back of the rotation starter, and hesitates (as a general rule) to throw out the term 'ace,' but said he could certainly end up as a #1 or #2 starter. Also said that he'd start Jungmann in Double-A immediately, and that a rotation spot in 2012 wouldn't surprise him.

OregonStrosFan · « **Reply #199 on:** June 02, 2011, 03:40:55 pm »

PG USA article (by Patrick Ebert) on Jungmann: Model of Consistency