MLBTR on the Astros '11 rotation

[OregonStrosFan]

MLBTR takes a look at the Astros rotation.  LINK

Nothing new here, but a reminder that this will continue to be a fun team to watch.

[strosrays]

Joining Wandy at the top of the rotation is former Phillie Brett Myers, arguably the single best free agent signing from last offseason.

No, no.

Wade is an idiot, who gets duped on every deal, especially ones involving former Phillies.

Get it straight.

[BlownRanger]

For some hilarious pot-kettle-black cubs fan nonsense, look no further than the long-winded diatribe found in the comments.

[Bench]

Brett Myers, arguably the single best free agent signing from last offseason.

Congratulations to arguably the single best free agent signing from last offseason, whose third child was born on Friday.  The boy's name, however, may rekindle some of the "character" hysteria from the offseason.  Who names a human Koda Bo?

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[BudGirl]

Congratulations to arguably the single best free agent signing from last offseason, whose third child was born on Friday.  The boy's name, however, may rekindle some of the "character" hysteria from the offseason.  Who names a human Koda Bo?

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Koda is Native American (I think Apache) for 'friend'.

Koda (pronounced koh-da) means 'friend' in Dakota Sioux.

Not sure if that has anything to do with the name.  It could be after the guy that wrote the song "Smokin' in the Boys Room."

[Mr. Happy]

Koda is Native American (I think Apache) for 'friend'.

Koda (pronounced koh-da) means 'friend' in Dakota Sioux.

Not sure if that has anything to do with the name.  It could be after the guy that wrote the song "Smokin' in the Boys Room."

BG, you are just a font of useful information!

[Limey]

BG, you are just a font of useful information!

FIFY

[strosrays]

It could be after the guy that wrote the song "Smokin' in the Boys Room."

No way.  His first name was Cub.

[BudGirl]

Michael "cub" Koda

And Limey, I'm too much of a lady to comment on your response.

[Noe]

Mr. Myers, yes he's earned the respect, is closely approaching the goal this season bestowed upon him by VOR (who thankfully never returned to gloat all season long about his "boyz" prowess this season... praise Alkie for admin privileges).  Actually, VOR made his bold prediction based on Myers being a third starter and not the ACE of the staff as he currently is.  Big difference.  But let's not quibble with facts, VOR would be pounding some Budweisers right now and taking names of all the nay-sayers like myself.

Am I regretting what I said about Myers at the start of the season?  No, not really.  He was a third starter given the job of eating innings and he was doing said job well.  Then Oswalt went all Derek Bell on the team and that put Myers into an entirely different level with the club.  To his credit, he has proven what many expected of him as a high prized prospect in the Phillies organization.  That is before he decided that drinking heavily and picking fights in bars was a cool thing (and then deciding he could take on the entire Yankees triple A team in a brawl).  There is a reason why no one wanted to go near Myers in the off season and the Astros were the only team that offered him a job.  There is also something to be said about guys who turn corners and grow up.  It is the reverse of what happened with the Astros and Curt Schilling.

Hopefully Myers can continue doing what he's doing because the other starters look like they are starting to get it as well and that is the key to a faster turnaround of hopes and dreams for this organization (that and a continued farm rebuilding and development).

[subnuclear]

Here's VoR's prediction, which I thought was ridiculous at the time:

Myers can pitch 200 innings get 15 Ws and have a 3.7-4.4. I don't think that is a risky best case scenario prediction.

Actual numbers as of 14 Sep 2010:
IP 205  ERA 2.85 W-L 12-7

He totally miffed the ERA! Shows you what he knows!

[Bench]

I don't know why I'm stepping in here, but here goes.

Actually, VOR made his bold prediction based on Myers being a third starter and not the ACE of the staff as he currently is.  Big difference.

I don't think so.  He made his prediction about Myers.  It is bizarre to try and qualify that by what happened with other personnel.

 
Then Oswalt went all Derek Bell on the team

That is highest of hyperbole.  I assume you meant it that way, but it's still pretty shitty to slap Oswalt with the Operation Shutdown stigma.

Anyway, I agree with the rest and it is stunning that VOR was more right than even he realized at the time.  He's still an a-hole though.

[BizidyDizidy]

I don't know why I'm stepping in here, but here goes.

I don't think so.  He made his prediction about Myers.  It is bizarre to try and qualify that by what happened with other personnel.

That is highest of hyperbole.  I assume you meant it that way, but it's still pretty shitty to slap Oswalt with the Operation Shutdown stigma.

Anyway, I agree with the rest and it is stunning that VOR was more right than even he realized at the time.  He's still an a-hole though.

Knows how to treat a woman though.

[Ron Brand]

You guys. VOR is Myers. How could you not know?

[OregonStrosFan]

Myers gives major kudos to Arnsberg for how his season has gone.  McTaggart blog

[Ron Brand]

Myers gives major kudos to Arnsberg for how his season has gone.  McTaggart blog

He has consistently said something to that effect in post-game interviews for quite a while.

[Noe]

I don't know why I'm stepping in here, but here goes.

I don't think so.  He made his prediction about Myers.  It is bizarre to try and qualify that by what happened with other personnel.

The reason I said what I said was because I asked him a very direct question: You expect this from a third starter?  (I then asked him to show me all the starters in the NL that had such a season and he came up with one - Joel Pinero) So no, I meant what I said.

That is highest of hyperbole.  I assume you meant it that way, but it's still pretty shitty to slap Oswalt with the Operation Shutdown stigma.

It would be if that were my single opinion.  It came from sources.

Anyway, I agree with the rest and it is stunning that VOR was more right than even he realized at the time.  He's still an a-hole though.

Like I said, I'm impressed with Myers more than I was willing to give him credit for.  VOR not so much... still.

[Mr. Happy]

Noe, who is VOR?

[Noe]

Noe, who is VOR?

Eggszactly!

[Reuben]

So... who thinks Paulino will make a good closer? That's what some people thought he would end up as anyway, when he first came up.

[Mr. Happy]

I think that Paulino showed enough this season to demonstrate that he can be a middle of tje rotation starter. I'd keep him there. Norris, on the other hand, although he can been fairly good too of late, might be a good closer.

[mrpink]

Why exactly is this a question?  Unless you're worried that he can't stay healthy in the rotation I see no reason to even consider moving either him or Norris to the bullpen.  Are you comfortable with the 5th starter being Figueroa, Moehler, or Wright?  I'll be pretty shocked if Lyles is in the rotation to start next year.

[Ebby Calvin]

I think that Paulino showed enough this season to demonstrate that he can be a middle of tje rotation starter. I'd keep him there. Norris, on the other hand, although he can been fairly good too of late, might be a good closer.

It's funny, I think the exact opposite of this.  I don't have the pitching background that you have, though, so we're probably looking at different things.

[BudGirl]

I think Mills and Arnsberg will make the right decision.  I also think Wade does a pretty good job finding relievers.

[geezerdonk]

I also think Wade does a pretty good job finding relievers.

Melancon and the Killer Ls is a good bullpen core (and corps).

[Jacksonian]

I think that Paulino showed enough this season to demonstrate that he can be a middle of tje rotation starter. I'd keep him there. Norris, on the other hand, although he can been fairly good too of late, might be a good closer.

I don't believe Paulino's gone more than ~130 innings ever in a year.  To date he's been too fragile to count on.

I won't link but there's an article on the chron online where Arnsberg talks about Norris's evolution as a pitcher and how he thinks Bud can be a 3, 2, or even 1 starter down the line.

[MusicMan]

I don't believe Paulino's gone more than ~130 innings ever in a year.  To date he's been too fragile to count on.

I won't link but there's an article on the chron online where Arnsberg talks about Norris's evolution as a pitcher and how he thinks Bud can be a 3, 2, or even 1 starter down the line.

The line on Norris has always been that if he can master the changeup, he'll be a high-quality starter.  The second half of the season, that's what he's been doing.

[Jacksonian]

The line on Norris has always been that if he can master the changeup, he'll be a high-quality starter.  The second half of the season, that's what he's been doing.

Arnsberg talks about Bud working more down in the zone overall as a critical component to his not getting beaten around... along with the change up.

[Limey]

Arnsberg talks about Bud working more down in the zone overall as a critical component to his not getting beaten around... along with the change up.

Maybe he can involve Happ in the next conversation on this topic.

[BUWebguy]

Post All-Star Break numbers for the rotation:

Myers: 6-1, 2.04, 12 GS, 83.2 IP (avg 7 innings per start), 78 K
Wandy: 5-1, 1.79, 12 GS, 75.1 IP (6.2 inn per start), 77 K
Happ (combined): 5-2, 3.63, 10 GS, 57.0 IP (5.2 inn per start), 48 K
Norris: 6-2, 4.07, 12 GS, 73.0 IP (6 IP per start), 71 K

[ETA Happ's ERA.]

[Noe]

I think that Paulino showed enough this season to demonstrate that he can be a middle of tje rotation starter. I'd keep him there. Norris, on the other hand, although he can been fairly good too of late, might be a good closer.

You sir, confuse me sometimes.

[austro]

Post All-Star Break numbers for the rotation:

Myers: 6-1, 2.04, 12 GS, 83.2 IP (avg 7 innings per start), 78 K
Wandy: 5-1, 1.79, 12 GS, 75.1 IP (6.2 inn per start), 77 K
Happ (combined): 5-2, 10 GS, 57.0 IP (5.2 inn per start), 48 K
Norris: 6-2, 4.07, 12 GS, 73.0 IP (6 IP per start), 71 K

What's Happ's ERA?

[BUWebguy]

What's Happ's ERA?

Oops! 3.63.

[jbm]

Thanks for the heads up on the Arnsberg comments on Norris.  Interesting how he feels that Norris change has gone from essentially nothing to near average or slightly better.  

[Mr. Happy]

You sir, confuse me sometimes.

Of course I do. Actually, because I value starters more than relievers, I'd like to see both Norris and Paulino, each of whom have demonstrated plus stuff, succeed as starters. I agree with Arnsberg that Norris could be a top of the rotation starter IF he continues to improve what has been a plus slider lately as well as his changeup. He's starting to change planes and speeds, both of which are critical to success as a starter for more than five innings per outing.

[Reuben]

I don't believe Paulino's gone more than ~130 innings ever in a year.  To date he's been too fragile to count on.

I won't link but there's an article on the chron online where Arnsberg talks about Norris's evolution as a pitcher and how he thinks Bud can be a 3, 2, or even 1 starter down the line.

Switching to the bullpen certainly seemed to help Lidge stay healthier. Or at least, didn't hurt.

Norris had that great AFL stint as closer, but yeah, if he's developed the changeup and can make it through a lineup 3 times, I'd love to see him stay in the rotation. I know Paulino didn't fare great out of the pen last year, but I doubt the Astros put much stock into that. To my untrained eye he looks like a horse of a closer, a guy that can give you more than just one inning sometimes. I agree with BudGirl- Arnsberg, Mills, and Wade will make the right decision. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Someone did make a good point, though, that Lyles is unlikely to start the season in the rotation, so they'll need somebody to fill that 5th spot.

[Mr. Happy]

I think Mills and Arnsberg will make the right decision.  I also think Wade does a pretty good job finding relievers.

I agree wholeheartedly.

[Jacksonian]

Someone did make a good point, though, that Lyles is unlikely to start the season in the rotation, so they'll need somebody to fill that 5th spot.

I trust Wade to find next year's Brett Myers.

[MusicMan]

I trust Wade to find next year's Brett Myers.

Think Brandon Webb has anything left?

[mrpink]

Think Brandon Webb has anything left?

Maybe, but I don't think he's in this category.  If Webb is ready to go next year I see him looking for Sheets-type dollars.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Maybe, but I don't think he's in this category.  If Webb is ready to go next year I see him looking for Sheets-type dollars.

Hell, Sheets may not command Sheet-type dollars next year.  The 10MM flier the A's took for a 4-9, 4+ ERA seems pretty tough to justify now.

[Jacksonian]

Think Brandon Webb has anything left?

HellifIknow.  For all I know Bonderman will be the next reclamation project Arnsburg fixes.

That's what I trust Wade to find out.

[Reuben]

HellifIknow.  For all I know Bonderman will be the next reclamation project Arnsburg fixes.

That's what I trust Wade to find out.

Last winter he talked about being gun shy of post-injury Russ Ortiz/Mike Hampton types. Myers may have been an exception (as well as an extreme best-case-scenario for that type of signing).

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Last winter he talked about being gun shy of post-injury Russ Ortiz/Mike Hampton types. Myers may have been an exception (as well as an extreme best-case-scenario for that type of signing).

I don't see any correlation between Myers and Ortiz/Hampton.  One was perceived damaged goods that was really a casualty of a team trying to repeat the previous years success while keeping the team salary under control.  The other two were simply casualties. 

[austro]

I don't see any correlation between Myers and Ortiz/Hampton.  One was perceived damaged goods that was really a casualty of a team trying to repeat the previous years success while keeping the team salary under control.  The other two were simply casualties. 

Myers wasn't just a salary dump, and the goods weren't just "perceived" to be damaged: he only pitched 70 innings in 2009 (after 190 in 2008 but only 68 in 2007). So there was some injury concern there. But if I remember correctly, his 2009 injury involved his groin or leg or something, which isn't quite as worrisome as arm/shoulder trouble.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Myers wasn't just a salary dump, and the goods weren't just "perceived" to be damaged: he only pitched 70 innings in 2009 (after 190 in 2008 but only 68 in 2007). So there was some injury concern there. But if I remember correctly, his 2009 injury involved his groin or leg or something, which isn't quite as worrisome as arm/shoulder trouble.

Maybe so, but considering a hip injury early in the season to come back to even pitch 6 or 7 innings says a lot.  He wasn't great, early in the season but past history would seem to justify taking a flyer on the following season.

[austro]

Maybe so, but considering a hip injury early in the season to come back to even pitch 6 or 7 innings says a lot.  He wasn't great, early in the season but past history would seem to justify taking a flyer on the following season.

Oh, I'm not trying to say that he wasn't worth taking a gamble on. I was just reacting to (my parsing of) your original post, which I interpreted to mean that Myers was really just a salary dump by the Phils. That was part of it, but his injury was part of it, too.

[astrosfan76]

Myers wasn't just a salary dump, and the goods weren't just "perceived" to be damaged: he only pitched 70 innings in 2009 (after 190 in 2008 but only 68 in 2007). So there was some injury concern there. But if I remember correctly, his 2009 injury involved his groin or leg or something, which isn't quite as worrisome as arm/shoulder trouble.

He was a closer in '07 and appeared in 51 games (3 starts).  He did spend 1/3 of the season on the DL with a right shoulder injury, but wasn't hurt quite as long as the innings pitched would suggest.