Don't try that bullshit with me. I know pitching and defense wins in the game, I spent 4 years on a HS team plus like 10 years of little league. I'm not some sabermetric geek. I also know that I never have been nor never will be comfortable with luke scott or ty wigginton batting 5th in the order in 2008 or beyond.
Scott is overrated with the bat, do to his inconsistency. He's an average corner outfielder at best. If he was that good, the astros would get the starter they want for him right now. Instead they got offered middling prospects by SD. In your 3-5 spots in the order consistency is critical. Again, a deal like this robs peter( a dropoff from pence to scott is pretty big) to pay paul. You help the rotation but create a gaping lineup hole.
I'd prefer to get a number 2 starter via other means. Eventually I think scott can bring a nice innings eater type for the number 2 spot, especially if packaged with a guy like albers, but that will be when fukudome signs and people realize scott at the minimum > geoff jenkins at 7-8 mil.
The only pitcher I part with hunter for right now(unless they could get a bat to replace him like tejada) that is currently being shopped is if the twins would do him for johan(the best pitcher on the planet) and that would only work if they could agree on a contract extension. Lincecum was erratic last year as it is, but obviously I realize his talent and potential.
And yes, I agree they need pitching now if they want to go anywhere now or in the future. I just don't use pence to get it unless it is Santana with a contract extension that Drayton would be willing to pay.
I guess I can buy all that. I may not agree, but I can accept your stance. It does make sense.
I am not willing to just give Pence away either, but in my view Lincecum looks pretty good, and there is no way the Astros have enough to realistically compete with many teams for the top tier guys like Bedard or Santanna. And personally I think this might be the buy low time on Lincecum anyway. (and based on track record maybe the sell high time for Pence.)
So the Astros have a gaggle of young potential starters fighting over spots right now, but none of them look like they will be as good as Lincecum has shown so far... that might be off, because sometimes you never know when someone will step up and surprise you. But I like the idea of having a rotation that starts off Oswalt, Lincecum, Patton for several years. To me, you can always find enough offense if you have that kind of pitching.
I think another aspect that I take into account is that Pence is probably best at LF, not RF, and with Lee slotted as the LFer for the next several years, the defensive outfield of the Astros might be something teams take advantage of (even with Bourn patrolling CF). Don't get me wrong, I don't want to change for the sake of changing, but it makes giving up Pence that much easier to swallow. Is Scott a better fielder than Pence, I think that is questionable at best.
I still go back to the fact that "I think" the Astros as a team might be better with Lincecum than with Pence, at least right now. So while I can understand your position, I just have a different opinion.
All this is really not much of an issue, at this time, because we have no real info about the Astros even TALKING to SF about Lincecum. And it is highly possible they are working on getting some other pitcher, and won't have to give up Pence to get him. Maybe Scott can be used as the chip to land that "other" pitcher. But if SF does come along and IS willing to do a 1-for-1 with Lincecum and Pence, I know I would fully be behind THAT deal. Still just a lot of SAMs at this point though.
