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The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2018-2019
« Last post by Nate Colbert on Yesterday at 04:19:47 pm »
MLB Pipeline did a bit of shuffling of their Astros Top 30 list as a result of the Thornton trade (although for some reason they still have Randy Cesar on their list). So who joined? None other than Ronnie Dawson, who was #15 on their 2018 preaseason list and then was dropped completely when they did the midseason update. He's back on at #20.

5 or More Prospect Lists (20)
OF Kyle Tucker.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL   
RHP Forrest Whitley..............FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Yordan Alvarez.................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Cionel Perez...................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Corbin Martin................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Freudis Nova.....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP J.B. Bukauskas................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
C Garrett Stubbs....................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Rogelio Armenteros......FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Jairo Solis........................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF J.J. Matijevic.......................FG/BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Seth Beer..........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Josh James......................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bielak..............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
SS Jonathan Arauz.................FG/BA/BP/MP/PL
3B Joe Perez...........................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Dean Deetz....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
LHP Framber Valdez.............FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Cristian Javier................FG/BA/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Myles Straw......................BA/BP/MP/Sickels/PL

4 Prospect Lists (5)
RHP Riley Ferrell....................FG/BA/MP/Sickels
3B Abraham Toro..................FG/MP/Sickels/PL
OF Ronnie Dawson................BA/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Brandon Bailey..............FG/MP/Sickels/PL
RHP Tyler Ivey........................FG/MP/Sickels/PL

3 Prospect Lists (2)
RHP Jayson Schroeder...........FG/MP/PL
OF Alex McKenna...................FG/MP/PL
RHP Trent Thornton..............MP/Sickels/PL

2 Prospect Lists (9)
RHP Bryan Abreu...................FG/PL
SS Jeremy Pena......................FG/MP
RHP Jandel Gustave...............FG/BA
RHP Peter Solomon...............FG/Sickels
RHP Elian Rodriguez..............BA/Sickels
SS Miguelangel Sierra...........BA/Sickels
OF Carlos Machado...............BP/Sickels
C Nathan Perry......................BP/Sickels
LHP Brett Adcock...................MP/Sickels
1B Randy Cesar......................MP/PL

1 Prospect List (18)
LHP Reymin Guduan.............FG
RHP Manny Ramirez.............FG
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte.............FG   
RHP Carlos Sanabria.............FG
SS Deury Carrasco.................FG
RHP Cody Deason..................FG   
LHP Kit Scheetz......................FG
RHP Enoli Paredes.................FG
RHP Luis Garcia......................BA
RHP Johanse Torres...............BA
C Michael Papierski................Sickels
C Lorenzo Quintana...............Sickels
C Chuckie Robinson...............Sickels
RHP Yoanys Quiala.................Sickels
RHP Leovanny Rodriguez......Sickels
RHP Carlos Sierra...................Sickels
LHP Alex Winkelman..............Sickels
RHP Heitor Tokar....................PL

Positional Breakdown:
RHP--27
LHP--6
C--5
3B--2
SS--5
UTIL--1
OF--8


FG = Fangraph's "The Board" (37 players)
BA = Baseball America's Preseason Top 30 Prospects (as adjusted by their midseason update for the Top 10 prospects) + one bonus supplemental prospect (sent with prospect handbook) + three "rising prospects" from the midseason update
BP = Baseball Prospectus' Preseason Top 21 Prospects
MP = MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects
Sickels = Minor League Ball's Preseason Top 20 Prospects + nineteen "other C+ prospects" from that preseason list + future additions noted in his midseason review article
PL = Prospects Live Top 30 Prospects
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Talk Zone / Re: Warm stove
« Last post by Jacksonian on Yesterday at 04:01:32 pm »
An absolutely terrific trade by Luhnow:

+1
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The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Fall & Winter Leagues 2018-2019
« Last post by Nate Colbert on Yesterday at 03:17:54 pm »
Quote
Nate Colbert on November 08, 2018, 10:53:26 pm
In the LBPRC, catcher Ruben Castro will join Lorenzo Quintana and Colin McKee on the Santurce roster.
Season has kicked off in Puerto Rico. Once upon a time, the LBPRC had as many as 6 teams. However, it was down to just 4 teams in last year's hurricane-shortened season and remains at that level this year. In addition to Santurce, the clubs are Mayaguez, Caguas and Carolina. LHP Jonathan Bermudez is listed on the Carolina roster after pitching in the U-23 World Cup.

Quintana DH'd and hit 9th in Santurce's loss last night to Caguas and went 0-4. Castro came in at catcher late in the game and K'd in his lone plate appearance.

Bermudez pitched 1 inning against Mayaguez, allowing 1 ER on 3 hits.
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Talk Zone / Re: Team Payroll 2019
« Last post by Nate Colbert on Yesterday at 02:37:53 pm »
I've adjusted this to account for the Aledmys Diaz acquisition...

$MM
Guaranteed salaries (7 players)......................77.5 (1)
Arb-eligible salaries (11 players).....................49.6 (2)
Pre-arb salaries (7 players)................................5.6 (3)
Total 2019 payroll (current roster)..........132.7

Both Roster Resource (RR) and Spotrac (ST) say final 2018 payroll was $163MM. If you assume a 2019 payroll somewhere between 5% above or below that figure (i.e., in the range of $155MM to $170MM), then the Astros have room to add somewhere between $22MM and $37MM in payroll. If you've been on the joy juice (or think Crane might view 2019 as the window possibly closing with the impending free agency of Verlander & Cole) and think the payroll might be increased by as much as 10% to $180MM, then add another $10MM to that upper bound.

(1) Verlander, Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Smith and Rondon. RR reports it as $77.5MM while ST says $77.9MM, with the minor difference being the calculation of the pro-ration of the Gurriel signing bonus.
(2) See the arb-eligible thread.
(3) RR plugs in a figure of $7.77MM which works out to $1.11MM per pre-arb player. That's way too high. The average pre-arb salary for the Astros in 2018 was $592K so I used $600K as the 2019 figure for everyone but Aledmys Diaz. While the recent trade acquisition is pre-arb, he was paid $2MM by the Blue Jays in 2018 and Article VI(B)(1) of the CBA comes into play here. That prevents a more than 20% reduction from a player's previous years salary. While in theory the Astros could cut Diaz's 2019 salary to $1.6MM, I would expect they'll do what the BJs did last year and renew him at $2MM (that was his salary in 2017 under the final year of his original 4-yr contract with the Cardinals). So a total of $5.6MM for 7 pre-arb players which includes $2MM for Diaz and $3.6MM for the remainder (6 players X $600K).
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Talk Zone / Re: Warm stove
« Last post by Nate Colbert on Yesterday at 02:04:15 pm »
Kaplan:

Thornton was among the minor leaguers Houston faced a decision on before Tuesday’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft.

As we've been tracking over here.

An absolutely terrific trade by Luhnow:
  • Acquires a player who'll be under club control for 4 more seasons (thru 2022).
  • Uses the tremendous minor league pitching depth to acquire a much-needed bat and utility piece.
  • A likely $2MM add to 2019 payroll vs an expected $9-13MM hit had Marwin been re-signed which should allow funds to be redirected toward adding a starting pitcher like Eovaldi plus a second bat.
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The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2018 Rule 5 Draft
« Last post by Nate Colbert on Yesterday at 01:17:30 pm »
And now updated for the Thornton news...

Higher Risk [4]
RHP Bryan Abreu--FB touching upper 90s, Oz says "maybe the best CB in the system", a 14.9 K/9 this season, #28 on FG list, question is whether he has truly put control problems behind him.
RHP Rogelio Armenteros--in the 10-15 range on most if not all the prospect lists.
RHP Riley Ferrell--in the 15-20 range on most prospect lists but a so-so 2018 where he struggled mightily with control does raise questions.
RHP Josh James
RHP Trent Thornton--sent to the AFL where he's drawn generally good notices and was chosen for and pitched well in the recent All-Star game.
LHP Framber Valdez
C Garrett Stubbs--lack of catching depth in the system almost guarantees he'll get protected.
OF Myles Straw


Medium Risk [6]
RHP Carlos Sanabria--an 11.9 K/9 at QC/BC does open your eyes even if it did come as a result of a move to the bullpen. FG has him at #28 on their prospect list.
RHP Erasmo Pinales--rewarded with an AFL assignment, the not-so-tall reliever has performed well there in limited innings thus far (at least if you ignore all the walks). Jim Callis recently described his arsenal thusly: "...some of the best pure stuff in the system: a fastball that reaches 97 mph with running and rising action, a short slider and hard curveball that are plus pitches at times and a solid changeup". That's starter stuff. Well it would be if he could get them near the plate on a consistent basis. Having now pitched in AA and with the exposure in Arizona, will another club finally be tempted to pull the trigger on him (particularly if they think they can get his fix his control problems)?
C Ruben Castro--still relatively young at 22, was having a nice offensive season for QC and had an 11-game hitting streak going when he was shut down for the last 3 weeks of the season with a knee infection, no defensive scouting report but did throw out 43% of baserunners.
SS Jonathan Arauz--what was looking to be an offensive breakthrough (.299/.392/.471 at QC) has sputtered at the next level (.167/.223/.288 at BC). Range on the prospect lists is 9-23.
UTIL Osvaldo Duarte--does a bounceback offensive season and his extreme positional versatility make him more attractive this time round? FG bumped him to #26 on their list.
OF Drew Ferguson--as recently as this preseason was ranked #17 on the MLB.com prospect list. Did miss 9 weeks this season with a broken wrist. Sent to the AFL to get some needed work, he hasn't exactly shined but that is kinda hard to do when you're only playing every 3rd day or so.


Lower Risk [26]
RHP Akeem Bostick--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn (contract sold to SK Wyverns)
RHP Justin Ferrell--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Jose Hernandez--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Hansel Paulino
RHP Yoanys Quiala
RHP Abdiel Saldana
RHP Edgardo Sandoval--2018 "meh" award nominee
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson
RHP Gabriel Valdez
LHP Kent Emanuel
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
LHP Alex Winkelman
C Oscar Campos
C Jamie Ritchie
SS Miguelangel Sierra
INF Juan Pineda
INF Nick Tanielu
UTIL Jack Mayfield
UTIL Antonio Nunez
OF Bryan De La Cruz
OF Carlos Machado
OF Hector Martinez
OF Andy Pineda

Bold = Rule 5 eligible for first time

2018 "meh" awards
Trying to get ahead of the curve here, these four hurlers are my longshot picks as guys who might be taken by a team really desperate for pitching. In other words, the 2018 nominees in the "Marlins take Elieser Hernandez" category. Yes, the "meh" awards (TM pending).

MLFAs [3]
INF Randy Cesar
RHP Matt Ramsey
RHP Angel Heredia
C Eduardo de Oleo

The MLFAs are also Rule 5 eligible even if re-signed by the Astros.
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Talk Zone / Re: 2019 Roster
« Last post by Nate Colbert on Yesterday at 01:07:56 pm »
Roster at 35 with the trade today...

Pitchers (18)
Cole
Deetz
Devenski
Guduan
Harris
James
Martes
McCullers
McHugh
Osuna
Peacock (out of options)
Perez
Pressly
Rodgers
Rondon
Smith
Valdez
Verlander

Catchers (2)
Herrmann (out of options)
Stassi (out of options)

Infielders [8]
Altuve
Bregman
Correa
Davis
Diaz
Gurriel
Reed
White (out of options)

Outfielders (7)
Fisher
Kemp (out of options)
Marisnick
Reddick
Springer
Straw
Tucker
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Talk Zone / Re: 2019 Roster
« Last post by Jacksonian on Yesterday at 12:51:11 pm »
I think I would trade Tucker if necessary to get him but not Whitley.

I agree.
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Talk Zone / Re: Warm stove
« Last post by moriartp on Yesterday at 12:31:03 pm »
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